Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 8/10 by Eric Longenhagen August 10, 2016 1:03 Eric A Longenhagen: Hey everyone, chatting today in lieu of Cameron. I just got back to A from the Area Code games so if you’ve got questions about prep kids for 2017 Draft I’ve got answers. Of course, all questions are welcome. Let’s begin… 1:03 Mike : Any 1-1 candidates you saw at Area Codes? 1:04 Eric A Longenhagen: If Hunter Greene’s slider keeps improving then he has a shot. Was up to 98 with movement, threw strikes, huge, athletic kid. 1:04 Eric A Longenhagen: I love Jo Adell (and we’ll talk about him here, too because I see some questions) but probably not enough there for 1-1. 1:04 Logan: Thoughts on Hunter Greene the RHP vs Hunter Greene the SS? Most seem to like him as a RHP first, but would he also be a first round talent at SS? 1:05 Eric A Longenhagen: I like the arm. The kid’s actions are good enough for SS (he started a dandy 6-4-3 with Nick Allen on Monday) but I don’t buy into the range. He’s consistently been 4.5+ down the line for me this summer and that just ins’t enough. 1:06 Eric A Longenhagen: Now if you wanna move him to 3B, fine, he has the power for that, but he missed several hittable pitches at ACs this weekend so I’m not sure how I’d grade the bat just yet. 1:06 Eric A Longenhagen: He’d be a good prospect as a position player, but I’d rather have 95+ with control and athleticism. 1:06 Max: I know they haven’t done much in the AC games, but if you had to pick one AZ SS, would it be Hauver, Holmes or Swift? 1:07 Eric A Longenhagen: Bat: Hauver. Kid’s barrel is lightning quick into the zone and has feel for all fields contact but he’s probably not a SS. Glove: Swift. Actions, range, arm (future 7 for me) are all there, just needs to polish up his hands. 1:08 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s Trevor Hauver and Drew Swift, btw. Two Arizona prep kids. It’s a much better year for the Four Corners than last. 1:08 Gordon Cole: Hey Eric, I’m a big fan of your writing and your appearances on Fangraphs Audio! I am wondering what it is about a young pitcher’s arm action/speed that make it likely he will develop a useful change-up, even if his change-up is below-average currently. 1:09 Eric A Longenhagen: I like dudes with quick arms, shorter arm actions. Those guys hide the ball better. 1:09 Q-Ball: If you wanted to see the most prospects possible, where in the country would be the best place to live? Florida? Or maybe Arizona? 1:10 Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve thought a lot about this because of what I’m hoping to do for a living for a long time. I’d rank them like this: 1. Phoenix Metro Area 2. Raleigh/Durham/CH Area 3. Florida 1:11 Eric A Longenhagen: And I think SoCal and Eastern PA round out the top 5. You can get to an absurd number of different affiliates within 2 hours from Eastern PA, like 7 or 8 different levels of the minors. 1:11 Miguel Sano: Sporer compared me to a peak Jack Cust and said that was my best-case comp. Do you agree? 1:12 Eric A Longenhagen: Cust was a prospects when I was in 5th or 6th grade so I have no idea. 1:12 Lewis Brinson: Did my prospect shine come back after my great performances after being traded? Wasn’t too long back that I was regarded to be better than Mazara and now he is the bee’s knees? 1:12 Eric A Longenhagen: It never left. Not for me anyway. A week and a half of performance a prospect does not make. 1:13 John: Is DJ Peterson going to be a regular MLBer soon? Seems to have shook off his 1-year hiatus in 2015 from being an actual prospect… 1:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Nor does a month of hitting in the PCL 1:13 Guest: Amed Rosario has 3 Hrs this year. Is a 10hr guy in the majors? 1:14 Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. Certainly has more raw power than that, might take a little bit but I think it gets there. 1:14 Jeet: Any chance de Leon is better than Tyler Glasnow? Glasnow’s control issues really worry me 1:15 Eric A Longenhagen: There’s a chance, yes, but I’ve always been less optimistic about Glasnow’s strike throwing ability than others. His stuff is incredible, but my scouting xenophobia was triggered when I body comp’d Glasnow to a pterodactyl. 1:15 da yung vis: Mateo or Gleybar Torres? 1:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Torres 1:15 Josh: Your take on Hunter Renfroe? See an all-star, or a 4th OF’er? Thanks! 1:16 Eric A Longenhagen: Am I forced to choose between one of those two extremes? I think there’s easy 6 raw power that will be undermined by a lot of swing and miss. Plays everyday for me, just not a middle of the order beast. 1:16 Chad Kuhl: Can I be a starter in the bigs? 1:17 Eric A Longenhagen: You probably need to add an ingredient or two but Ray Searage is doing the cooking so I think it’s possible. 1:17 Patrick: Is Andrew Benintendi’s upside higher than the average regular that he was projected as pre-draft? Or is his low risk profile the reason for his prospect pedigree? 1:17 Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s going to be better than that. 40+ doubles annually. He’s very good. 1:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Pre-draft reports weren’t hyperbolic because the industry had a shorter history scouting him than is usual. Was a draft eligible soph. 1:18 Toki: What’s the book on catching prospect Francisco Meija? Any idea what a typical slash would be for a season? 1:19 Eric A Longenhagen: Incredible athlete for C, very explosive. Swing has some violence and I think he’ll swing and miss at upper levels, 7 arm, should be a great all around defender. Cleveland fans should be pleased they didn’t part with him. Higher risk, but I think he has more upside than Frazier. 1:19 Miketron: So I hear you are from Catty. You guys suck! 1:20 Eric A Longenhagen: Indeed I am. And I’m pretty sure I can deduce your township of origin based on your almost exclusive use of monosyllabic words. 1:21 Eric A Longenhagen: (winks and smiles) 1:21 John: What’s the word on sixto sanchez? Aside from having an awesome name, there isn’t a lot out there on him. 1:21 Eric A Longenhagen: Like 92-96, might touch higher than that, hard upper-80s slider that will kiss 90. He’s a dude. 1:21 Eric A Longenhagen: Also I heard he wears #66 which…FV grade automatically gets a half grade bump for that. 1:21 Ronnie: Am I crazy to hope for one of Jurado, Payano or Taveras as the PTBNL in the Lucroy/Jeffress trade? 1:22 Eric A Longenhagen: Not crazy, because those guys are good (Taveras especially was drawing A LOT of trade interest last week). Delusional? Maybe. I have no idea what that list of names looks like. 1:23 Tim: Hi Eric. Nick Senzel has looked great in Dayton thus far – but, given that he’s a polished hitter from the SEC, should I withhold my optimism until he starts doing damage in A+ or AA? 1:23 Eric A Longenhagen: I think you’re allowed to be excited simply because Senzel is quite good, but you’re right to be cautious about college hitters (esp. from big conferences) performing in low levels. 1:24 Paul: Eric – tell me things, hopefully even good things, about Dustin Peterson. I’m just scouting the stat line, but he’s had a really impressive year for a young AA guy – I think I read he’s only taken 4 ABs against pitchers younger than him. 35 doubles! Could he be a fringe top 100 guy in the offseason? Don’t think I’ve ever seen him on any national lists, but getting cautiously excited about him. Thanks! 1:25 Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not a top 100 guy but he’s definitely improved. He’s always been pull-only with that power and guys like that need to have really good timing to make sure they, you know, are pulling whatever they can. Peterson’s added a little big of a leg kick to help with that, a la Josh Donaldson. Not as extreme as that, but elements of it. He’s buoyed his stock. 1:25 Jason: Explain Franklyn Kilome to me. Is he still an exciting prospect? 1:26 Eric A Longenhagen: Huge dude who throws hard with extension and movement. Doesn’t repeat, but has slider feel. I think that’s exciting, even if it’s risky. But I just got done watching a lot of kids throw 87-89 who I thought were exciting. 1:26 Rob: Francis Martes, top of the rotation ceiling there? 1:27 Eric A Longenhagen: That’s probably a little rich. When I started full time at FG a couple months ago I was getting “Is Fran Martes done for?” questions. Give these guys time. Martes struck out (I think) 11 or 12 guys the other night? He has great stuff and is locating the slider again. Body comps to Frankie Montas, wildness might push him to the pen. A familiar tale. 1:28 Philip: Any Padres sleepers you like? 1:28 Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I’ve got some deep sleepers for ya… 1:29 Eric A Longenhagen: I like Rod Boykin and Stralin Cordero. Not gonna be top of the org types, but guys I’ve seen and am interested in. 1:29 Tim: Tebow!!! This is nothing more than a perfect opportunity for schadenfreude, right? 1:31 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t dislike Tebow. His lifestyle is extremely different from mine but he appears to be a model citizen. If you’re repulsed by the media’s coverage of him, I get it. But that isn’t Tebow’s fault. I’ll go see his workout here in AZ if CAA will have me. I’m skeptical of his ability, but it’s something to do and write about. 1:31 Mike: Which Yankees prospect(s) do you see becoming above-average players in the majors? 1:32 Eric A Longenhagen: Purely my views and not a more objective, FV type of approach: Judge, Frazier, Rutherford, I’m getting there on Torres and Tate if he can reclaim his stuff from the spring. Oh and Sanchez. 1:33 JD15: How do you like Ian Happ? When do you think he will have a role with the Cubs considering they have Baez at utility and Zobrist at 2B for the foreseeable future? 1:34 Eric A Longenhagen: I think Happ’s bat plays anywhere so it shouldn’t be a problem. Also, Zobrist’s versatility should allow for some flex. 1:34 Eric: What’s a reasonable expectation for Zack Granite? 1:34 Eric A Longenhagen: 4th OF is reasonable. College kid from Seton Hall, good body, can run and play CF, has contact skills but I can’t project better than 30 game power there because of the swing. 1:34 JD15: Have you seen Eddy Julio Martinez play at all in South Bend? He was just the cubs minor league player of the month, so he must be doing something right 🙂 1:35 Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t seen him at SB but saw him this spring and thought he was solid. Has bat speed, 50/55 runner for me, maybe gets a little over aggressive. Has been better as the season has gone along than he was in the spring when I thought he’d looked rusty. 1:35 Greg: What are your tool grades for Jordon Adell? Most upside we’ve seen in a while? Legit 1-1 shot? 1:36 Eric A Longenhagen: Future 6 hit, 6 power, future 7 arm. He was running in the 4.4s down the line for me this week so I’m pretty sure he ends up in right field but I’d take that kid in the top 10. 1:36 Philip: Padres involved in any more available Cubans? 1:37 Eric A Longenhagen: I haven’t heard any specific rumors (Preller was at Area Codes, btw) but it just makes logical sense for them to kick the tires on everyone who becomes available over the next 10 months because they’re already pot-committed to this J2 period. 1:38 chronicles of Reddick: What is your outlook on Nick Gordon, twins? potential everyday player? 1:38 Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. Tools aren’t that loud but he’s all-around solid and plays a decent SS. That’ll get you far on its own. 1:38 Zonk: At what minor league level do you start paying more attention to stats? 1:40 Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on what you’re doing with them. I look at AZL stats to make sure I’m not missing anyone I want to see, but don’t base my evaluations off of them. I think Double-A is a good place to start looking and trying to map stats for the future, though of course park size and other external factors still play a more volatile role than they do in the big leagues. Always be skeptical. 1:40 CB: Luke Weaver scouting/expectations? 1:42 Eric A Longenhagen: Gonna write on Weaver and Reyes today as I continue to sift through AC video, but in short Weaver throws hardf, low slot makes it hard for him to consistently get on top of his breaking balls, change flashes plus, he throws strikes. He’s a solid #4 for me. 1:42 Billy Beane: Ryon Healy has a .238/.265/.413 slash line in the bigs so far. That’s probably what I should expect from him going forward, yeah? Some pop but no discipline and not great contact skills? 1:43 Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe not that exact line, but yes the overall tool distribution you describe is what I expect. Healy’s swing is grooved, not a lot of bat control. Big league arms will pick up on that. 1:43 chronicles of Reddick: Do you know what is the status of Alex Meyer’s injury? I hoping he might enjoy the change in scenery… 1:44 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know specifics other than “shoulder fatigue” but more than that may be out there if local beat reporters on on it. 1:44 ChopChop: Is it a good time to sell Giolito? If so, what kind of return do I look for? 1:44 Eric A Longenhagen: Nah, you’d be selling low. 1:45 ChopChop: With an 80 hit tool, how bad can the rest of a players tools be and they still be a really good player? What would that look like? 1:46 Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on the position he plays. If we pick somewhere in the middle of the defensive spectrum say…3B? As long as the defense is passable, like a 45 with a 5 arm, I’d take a 30 power guy there. 1:46 Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote about Steve Susdorf when I was with CrashburnAlley, who had a 6 bat and nothing else, so if you dig that up it might give you some idea. 1:47 Pepe: Should Yadier Alvarez be bumped a level before the season ends? 1:47 Eric A Longenhagen: I’d let him air it out for a start or two at Tulsa but they know more about the kid and the situation than I do, I’m just bullish on his arm. 1:48 Jeff: Is Nick Johnson a good comp for Dan Vogelbach 1:48 Eric A Longenhagen: Johnson had a much better approach. Much. 1:48 Dumpster Fiers: Thoughts on Musgrove? Surely not THIS good, but what do you see from him moving forward? 1:49 Eric A Longenhagen: Mid-rotation guy for me. Not enough stuff to be more than that, but still valuable. 1:49 Dominik: Is jp Crawford a little overrated? I mean he is good and with his glove he doesn’t have to hit all that much but in AA and AAA he has mostly OPSd in the 700s fueled by a high walk rate which might not play in the Majors if his Power does not improve. Good Prospect but why ahead of bregman or benitendi who have actually hit? 1:50 Eric A Longenhagen: If you think he plays 7 D at SS then you can put him up there. 1:50 Austin: What are the chances Adam Brett walker can make the jump to the major successfully? He seems to have excelled at every level despite warning he’ll fall off and strike out too much to be valuable. 1:50 Eric A Longenhagen: I think the chances are slim. 1:50 John: Who does a guy look like if he has Tony Gwynn’s hit tool and Stanton’s power? Peak Bonds? Frank Thomas? 1:51 Eric A Longenhagen: Pablo Sanchez 1:51 Me: Best organization at developing young talent? 1:52 Eric A Longenhagen: The answer to this question is always in flux because staff is always moving around, but the Cardinals and Giants have consistently churned out players out exceed my expectations. Cubs have an amazing infrastructure in place for their kids, too. 1:52 KW: What’s your taken on Kyle Higashioka? 1:53 Eric A Longenhagen: See: Lavarnway, Ryan 1:53 Tondo: How do you explain Naquin’s ML performance so far? Are there scouting points that you think correlate to minors stats translating or even have upside for more? Or do the Indians have some magic formula, first Lindor now Naquin 1:53 Eric A Longenhagen: Made significant mechanical changes. 1:54 Eric A Longenhagen: Watch him hit now (lower half) and go find video of him two years ago. Like a different guy. 1:54 Tondo: Concerned about Aiken’s poor performance? 1:55 Eric A Longenhagen: He’s been okay. When I’ve seen him, the curveball is there, his prep velo is not and the body has gone in a direction nobody thought it would. At least not this soon. He’s still basically rehabbing from TJ so patience is important. 1:55 Philip: Can Dinelson Lamet be a competent back end starter? 1:56 Eric A Longenhagen: People I’ve spoken to are on the fence about either that outcome or relief. 1:56 Frank: Do you think Manuel Margot will “grow into” more power? Are we looking at 8-10 HR a year or 18-20? 1:56 Eric A Longenhagen: It’s in there right now but it’s a swing thing, not a body thing. He’d have to make mechanical changes to tap into it. That’s risky. 1:57 Dave: How has Mickey Moniak looked? Not overdrafted? 1:58 Eric A Longenhagen: Not your typical 1-1 type but he’s been good and I think the Phillies did what the could to get the best group of prospects given the situation they were in, which was an unenviable one. 1:58 Me: Please tell me something good about an Orioles prospect. Any prospect will do. 1:59 Eric A Longenhagen: Pat Connaughton has a nice jump shot. 1:59 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m sorry, that was mean. 2:00 Eric A Longenhagen: You know, during Futures Game BP my notes on Chance Sisco say “weak wristed”but then during the game, he absolutely ripped one. 2:00 Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve also seen Tanner Scott up to 101 with movement. 2:01 Ryan: When do the rookie league seasons end? 2:01 Eric A Longenhagen: Same as the rest of the minor leagues, at the end of the month. Then we have a few weeks before Fall Instructional League. 2:01 Badger: Are Correa’s weaknesses at SS skills that players typically don’t improve on? 2:02 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes because they’re not skill based but rather due to his enormous size which limit his range and flexibility. 2:02 Skip: Got to agree on Florida being a top place to see prospects. I saw new Yankee Gleybar Torres rip a triple last night in Clearwater. Ticket price was $1.00. 2:03 Eric A Longenhagen: Right, but for scouts who have to drive from game to game, Clearwater to Fort Myers isn’t as easy as Scottsdale to Mesa. Amateur talent in the area puts it atop North Carolina for me, though. That and Rookie-ball FSL combo during the summer. 2:04 Tim: TJ Freidl is a fun story, but too early to project his ceiling? Maybe an AFL guy? 2:04 Eric A Longenhagen: He went from Nevada to Team USA and is now playing pro ball, so they’ll probably give him a breather and skip AFL. 2:05 forever it: Any idea what happened with the “other” Cody Reed (the D-Backs one) ? Was killing it in low-A, then rocked when moved up to high-A and was mysteriously sent to DL 2:06 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know if there’s an injury but he’s always been upper-80s with good curveball depth, no physical projection. I can see him pitching well at the lower levels because of the curveball but I’m don’t know if there’s much more coming. 2:06 coconut: Hypothetically, how many Arrested Development references could you fit into one chat? 2:07 Eric A Longenhagen: I’d have to re-watch the series to really load up on them, but probably 15-20. 2:08 Eric A Longenhagen: I bet you wanted one in my answer to that question and I didn’t give you one. 2:08 Da Bum: You go by Eric A, how often are you called Erica? 2:09 Eric A Longenhagen: I go by Eric, but the chat software asked me for my middle initial when I signed up to use it and I had just seen 2001: A Space Odyssey so I gave the machine what it wanted. 2:09 Austin: How about some twins sleepers? Any? 2:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Trey Cabbage and Lamonte Wade, if you consider them sleepers. 2:10 Billy Beane: Jaycob Brugman isn’t a prospect, but all he’s done at every level id perform. Any chance he ends up as a big league regular? Or is he just a 4th-5th outfielder? 2:10 Eric A Longenhagen: The latter. 2:10 Paul: With the new Trea Turner rule in place (unless I’ve misinterpreted it), what’s the point of PTBNLs? 2:11 Eric A Longenhagen: Gives teams extra time to focus on evaluating a smaller collection of players. 2:11 Vin: Are you buying Christian Arroyo as the Giants 3B of the future? 2:11 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, future 7 hit for me. 2:13 Sailor Jerry: Yadi Alvarez since promotion to A ball: 31/4 SO/BB 12 hits in 18 IP 2:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Jeez, are they letting him throw an invisible baseball? 2:14 Mike_C: Ever wish you could peak into an alternate reality where John Elway chose baseball over football? I know he was a 22 year old in AA, but his numbers were insane. I would like to see someone take a crack at projecting him as a major leaguer. 2:15 Eric A Longenhagen: I do wish that, especially because it probably means Elway never becomes the Broncos GM and builds a team that beats my Panthers in the Super Bowl. 2:15 Eric A Longenhagen: Also probably means my mother-in-law, who loves Elway, is a bigger baseball fan than she is now. That’d be a nice bonus. 2:15 The other Kyle: Thoughts on Christin Stewart? Even if he never significantly improves contact rates, hopes for a MLB career with that power profile? 2:16 Eric A Longenhagen: I was not a fan of his pre-draft but based on what I saw at the Futures Game I think I might be eating some crow on that one. I’m still apprehensive, but he was impressive. 2:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Okay folks, I had fun talking with you but I need to get podding with Cistulli. We’ll be back on the normal chat schedule next Monday, when I’ll have returned from the PG All American game in San Diego. 2:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t get captured.