Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 8/15

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning (in Arizona, anyway). Got back late last night from the PG game in San Diego so things will probably be abbreviated today.

Nolan: I’m thinking of going to a game tonight, alone, to see Cal Quantrill pitch a few innings. Worth the 17 bucks?

Eric A Longenhagen: Healthy Quantrill could have gone 1-1 so yes, I think so. He was fastball-heavy in the AL as he warmed up post-draft so you might not see the entire package but it’s worth going.

Jake: What are your thoughts on Meadows, Bell, and Newman? What are their upsides?

Eric A Longenhagen: Meadows could be a star, Bell has great offensive skills but obviously the bar at first base is high. Newman is a SS for, plus bat, can run and I think he’ll be a good everyday player.

Josh: Thoughts on Urias so far? Would you change any of his present/future pitch grades based on what’s he’s shown?

Eric A Longenhagen: The command has been frustrating but he turned 20 this week.

felix unger’s duster: Fellow Pirates fans are freaking out over PIT trading Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez to TOR to get them to take on the remainder of Liriano’s salary. Setting aside the economics aspect of the deal, is the prospects aspect worth the emotion/vitriol that’s been all over the Pirates blogs?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote them both up here. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/scouting-the-prospects-in-the-francisco-liriano-trade/

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re interesting and I understand why fans would be irked about moving prospects in a deal like that, regardless of how they project, but I don’t see either of them becoming stars or anything like that.

Adam from Bay Ridge: Where would you rank Gary Sanchez among MLB catchers? Think he cracks the top half of catchers in the league?

Eric A Longenhagen: If given a full season, yeah I think he’s probably be in the top 15. Things are weak at C.

pants: Are you going to publish scouting reports on some of the other newly called up prospects, like Benintendi and Dahl? I really enjoy it when you and Chris Mitchell come out with your respective pieces on recent callups.

Eric A Longenhagen: I wrote up Dahl. Guys are called up so frequently that it’s next to impossible to write them all up. I won’t be backtracking to do Benintendi or Judge. If callups happen while I’m on the road (like Judge this weekend) or during other major events (like Benintendi was at the deadline) those just won’t happen.

guapo: Did you scout Will Craig at all? Seems like an interesting prospect.

Eric A Longenhagen: I have not personally seen Craig.

Eric A Longenhagen: BUt yeah, he’s interesting.

Brad: Is Thomas Szapucki the next great Mets pitching prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Depends on what you mean by “great”, he throws hard and has feel for spin. That’s a great place to start.

Adam from Bay Ridge: Do you believe Yankees SP prospect Domingo Acevedo will stick in the rotation or do you think he’ll wind up as a high leverage reliever long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: Relief

Seven Costanza: For someone coming out of a major college conference, are players like Nick Senzel expected to hit well in low-A, or is that still a very big plus?

Eric A Longenhagen: Expected. He was arguably the most advanced all-around bat in the draft.

Joe: Best prospect currently on Reading?

Eric A Longenhagen: Alfaro, though I have a soft spot for Kingery.

Jack C.: Thoughts on Twins’ Luiz Arraez? .344/.383/.450 in 95 games with the Kernels this year. Still only 19 years old. Someone to keep an eye on?

Eric A Longenhagen: Definitely worth monitoring. Bat-first 2B type. Body offers little projection and the swing isn’t geared for much power but he has bat speed, could be plus hit.

James: Dinelson Lamet seems to be the newest helium prospect. Does he stick as a starter or is he bound for the pen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Opinions are mixed. I’m still not sure what I think.

Tommy Boy: Is Isan Diaz now a top 100 prospect? His type of offense in the middle infield seems as good as many top SS/2B prospects and he is young

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh yes.

Johnny 5: Given a choice, would you rather start your team with Clint Frazier or Aaron Judge?

Eric A Longenhagen: Judge.

Chris: T/F: Rafael Devers has the highest ceiling for hit/power in the minors

Eric A Longenhagen: Love Devers, but he doesn’t have the highest hit/power ceiling in that system.

Zonk: Is the Angels farm system really as bleak as everyone says? Is there ANY hope that Mike Trout can get some young help?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s definitely bad and their first two picks this year were 1) an overdraft and 2) a guy who hasn’t played yet. I like Jahmai Jones, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: As far as dealing Trout goes, I’m not touching that.

Johnny 5: What does Dustin Fowler have to do to get more prospect love? He’s been absolutely murdering the ball for two months straight as a 21 year old in AA…

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah I really like Fowler. His swing is completely devoid of loft so there isn’t going to be much power but he smokes liners all over the place. Everyday player for me.

James: SD fan looking for good news these days and the farm system seems to be the best chance for hope in that area. Any strong starts from 2016 1st round picks or noteworthy breakouts on the year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hudson Potts looks just fine here in the AZL, using the opposite field and getting some time at SS. Quantrill’s velo is at pre-TJ levels. Beyond that you can read the J2 package I put out in July and it’s littered with Padres stuff because their class was so strong.

Eric A Longenhagen: Oh and Reggie Lawson has been into the mid-90s as well. They’re taking amateur talent acquisition very seriously. Preller was at Area Codes and front and center for yesterday’s PG game.

Zonk: What teams have the nicest facilities in Arizona?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’re all pretty nice. Cubs, COL/ARI are my favorites. Brewers least so.

Tunnel Snakes Rule: Is there real concern for Jose Berrios? Or is this just a case of still learning to pitch to MLB hitters?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d wait to see where the velo is next spring before panicking but I know I’m getting there.

Zonk: Mark Zagunis…how do you project him? Elite plate discipline, average everything else it seems

Eric A Longenhagen: More of a fourth OF for me.

MV: Do you still have concerns with Rowdy Telez reaching offensive potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup. Nothing new has come to light since I was last asked about him in a chat.

Matt: Moncada is striking out 30% of time in AA why is he so overhyped

Eric A Longenhagen: Because his tools are incredible.

John: What do you think about Jeff Hoffman? Can he be a number 2 or is a 3 or 4 more likely?

Eric A Longenhagen: Before his injury at ECU I would have strongly considered him at 1-1. A potential 2 for me.

Timothy: Hunter Greene gonna be drafted as a pitcher or hitter?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pitcher. 4.5s down the line all summer and is only going to get bigger. Missed multiple driveable pitches yesterday, another trend throughout his summer,

Matt: Is there going to be an offseason prospect ranking list?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup

Mike_C: Haven’t hear much regarding Touki Toussaint since the Diamonbacks dumped him for salary relief. Is it possibly they have correctly evaluated him as having little long-term upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: No. Pitchers who throw in the mid-90s with a plus curveball have lots of long term upside. It’s possible they correctly evaluated the risk associated with a wild teenage arm, but only after they used a first round pick on him.

Jeff Chisholm: Favorite Cheers bartender: Coach or Woody?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have seen one episode of Cheers and have no idea what the characters names are.

Eric A Longenhagen: But if Shelley Long is one of those then, her.

Greg: Thoughts on Shohei Otani?

Eric A Longenhagen: Would be a top 10 prospect in all of baseball if eligible. I’ve seen him coasting at 96+.

John: Dominic Smith has played better recently. Is James Loney a fair comp?

Eric A Longenhagen: Loney is a better athlete and I don’t like comps, generally. But if what you’re getting at is, “Hey, is Dom Smith a hit-before-power type of 1B?” then yes I agree with that.

Matt: Who is a prospect you are higher on than the industry consensus?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably several low level guys who I see in-person.

Adam from Bay Ridge: Is Jay Bruce a fair comp for Judge? Maybe Judge gets an edge on defense?

Eric A Longenhagen: Judge is definitely too unique, physically, to comp to anyone.

I’m Late!: The Phillies have a lot of options come September. Is there anyone on the farm that the casual fan wouldn’t notice but you’ve had eyes on this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Tough to gauge “casual” since I’m so far removed from that but I’ll say Malquin Canelo and hope you haven’t heard that name before.

Durgin: Does Mauricio Dubon remind you of Jose Iglesias, and is he an everyday MLB shortstop?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not for me. Don’t think he hits at all.

mike sixel: follow up on Berrios: why concern over velocity? Isn’t command and movement the issue so far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but he was able to get away with that more often when he was touching 97. I think it’s more likely he does that again rather than suddenly learn how to create movement AND command everything.

Matt: Grant Holmes-Future number 3 starter?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d buy that, yes. Still young and wild so plenty of risk, but he has the stuff to get there.

Krombopulos Michael: Best prospect name? Icezak Fleming?

Eric A Longenhagen: D’mond Lafond

Jack C.: Magneuris Sierra. Could you tell me anything about him besides his wicked first name?

Eric A Longenhagen: Potential plus hit tool and the physical tools for CF

Mystery Team: Could you guess at a likelihood otani comes over this offseason?

Eric A Longenhagen: Very little incentive for Hokaido to post him until his deal is done. Too many tickets to sell.

John: Follow up to Smith…Do you see 20-25 HR potential or is 15 more realistic?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think 18-22 at peak is feasible.

G: Thoughts on Taillon thus far? Not missing a ton of bats, but doesn’t walk anybody. Could he better than Cole long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d take Cole.

Jack C.: How do you project Nick Neidert? He has put together very good numbers since joining the Mariners organization in Rookie and A-Ball. Only 56 K in 71 IP this year, but only 8 BB as well.

Eric A Longenhagen: Low-90s with movement, might touch a little higher, average changeup and slider that both flash a bit above. Could be a mid-rotation starter. That was a good pick.

Q-Ball: Albert Almora: 4th OF, or will he hit enough to start?

Eric A Longenhagen: Wrote him up here: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/scouting-debutants-jameson-taillon-and-albert-almora/

Bobby: I know you are still getting into the swing of things at Fangraphs but for future years this: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-post-trade-deadline-prospect-update/

Eric A Longenhagen: Mhmm. Had no offseason list to update, thus no mid-season list.

John: How do you project Kopech and Allard? And can they stick in the rotation?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Kopech is a pen arm and Allard could be a #2, though his age, size and injury history make him rather risky.

Sam R.: Miguel Andujar future first or second division regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him like a month ago and I didn’t think there was enough bat speed.

Roger: Would you rather have Willy Adames or Lourdes Gurriel?

Eric A Longenhagen: Adames

Gary: What do you think are the top 5 systems as of right now? Did the Yankees push themselves into that group?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yankees definitely in there. Would be irresponsible for me to just list 5 clubs off the top of my head. Properly ranking farm systems takes months of work and guy like Bregman will be graduating soon, which will impact things. Atlanta, Milwaukee are locks for my top 5 at this point. San Diego is knocking on the door.

X: Long-term, do you prefer Musgrove or Martes?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you like certainty, Musgrove. If you like upside, Martes. I fall into the latter group.

Dr. Tim Whatley: Who’s better in 2020, Nick Williams or Roman Quinn?

Eric A Longenhagen: Williams.

Slacker George: Have you seen MiguelAngel Sierra?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, he’s near the top of my priority list for the rest of the year.

some guy: IYO, will Senzel stay at 3B or move to another position? who do you like more – Erceg or Austin Riley?

Eric A Longenhagen: Stays at 3B. Erceg.

Mike: Aaron Judge is 24 years old and only batted .270 in triple A. Another typical over-hyped yankees prospect

Eric A Longenhagen: He has 7 raw.

John: Maybe this is a dumb question, but when looking at pitchers, what are you looking at from a pitcher in High A or a pitcher in AAA? I would assume it’s different at different levels.

Eric A Longenhagen: Stuff is stuff and it matters at every level, but I’d like the guy at Triple-A to have a better idea of how to use it while being more forgiving if the AAA arm has a more mature build.

Julio Pepper: Sort of a subjective question but I’m curious: Who’s the best prospect you’ve ever seen?

Eric A Longenhagen: Trout and Harper were in the same outfield during Fall League one year.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay that’s all for today. Go forth to love and scout the world. See you here next week.