Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat 8/29

 

11:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Morning all. Going to be a shorter chat than the usual hour and a half as the Rangers and Padres AZL game for today was moved up to 10am and I want to see Alex Speas. I’ll give you a couple more minutes to get questions in since so far an overwhelming ratio of the ones in the queue are about 25 year olds.

11:06

CarrotJuice: Do the Orioles have any prospects that could be if any use for this season? (Sorry, but I accidentally clicked send before I finished the question before)

11:07

Eric A Longenhagen: If you would have asked my this before the season I would have said Tanner Scott and Jason Garcia could come up late in the year and add some juice to the pitching staff but neither has been very good this year. I suppose Park Bridwell? Not really any clear candidates.

11:07

GPT: You’ve seen Sandro Fabian over the course of the season, final thoughts? His stats have held up. Is he a top 15-20 in the system type player?

11:09

Eric A Longenhagen: Body lacks projection (I think) but solid bat speed, natural loft and timing. Not a CF for me but a solid little prospect. 15-20 in the system feels right, would be ahead of the system’s pure relief arms and Clayton Blackburn for me.

11:09

Great8: Morning! Which young Rays SS do you think has the brighter future? Rondon or Fox? Do you think either will be Allstar quality players? Thanks

11:10

Eric A Longenhagen: I like both but if I had to choose it’d be Fox.

11:10

James: What did you think of Carlos Rincon?

11:11

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s okay. Takes some massive hacks. Approach is hyper-aggressive but has more raw power projection than Ariel Sandoval who was the 2015 version of this.

11:11

Jack Law: Have you seen Khalil Lee yet? 400 OBP and 500 SLG seems impressive for a guy that turned 18 after he was drafted. Lotta Ks though

11:12

Eric A Longenhagen: I have and it’s waaaaay different than it was pre-draft. He’s filled out considerably and is punishing the baseball, approach has been great. He’s one of the top prospects in the AZL for sure.

11:12

CarrotJuice: Who has a better chance of sticking behind the plate long term: Sanchez or Contreras?

11:12

Eric A Longenhagen: Contreras, bet on athletes.

11:12

Stepheb: The NFL is obsessed with trading draft picks why does that not happen in baseball?

11:12

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s mostly not allowed.

11:12

Tom Penney: Anyone under the radar right now that could help a team when rosters expand?

11:15

Eric A Longenhagen: “Under the radar” for me is anyone that, say, beat writers aren’t talking about. The Dodgers have had Jordan Schafer relieving and pinch running in the AZL and attempting steals every time he can. That might be a thing. They’d have to clear 40 man space, though.

11:15

Peter: How far has Robert Stephenson’s prospect status dropped? Senzel is the clear-cut top prospect in the Reds’ system now, yeah?

11:15

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve never been quite that high on Stephenson. Ceiling still the same, just more likely he becomes a reliever as time goes along without success. Senzel is probably #1 for me, yes.

11:16

Matt: Do you see anyone int he Yankees system (including Green and Cessa) that you think has a legit chance to be in the big-league rotation out of camp next year? Or am I going to have to hope they just make a trade?

11:16

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe Jordan Montgomery. Good athlete, four pitch mix with abv avg changeup.

11:16

Domingo: Will Dixon Machado hit enough to be an mlb ss?

11:17

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so. Not a first-division type of SS, but one capable of starting? Sure.

11:17

Peter: Taylor Trammel upside?

11:17

Eric A Longenhagen: All Star

11:17

Carrotjuice: Today’s my birthday! Tell me the best thing about my Cubs farm system!

11:19

Eric A Longenhagen: Congratulations, you are one year closer to death. The three arms the Cubs drafted with the savings they accrued from signing Kyle Schwarber below slot (Justin Steele, Dylan Cease and Carson Sands) have all had underwhelming seasons from either a health or statistical standpoint. Happy birthday!

11:19

Toto: Has Michael Gettys shown anything this year that indicates he’s turned a corner? When do we start thinking his ship has sailed?

11:20

Eric A Longenhagen: Saw him last month, he was out taking early BP, working on taking the ball the other way. Hit an oppo bomb later that night. Even if the skillset has a hole, we’re talking about CF so there’s some room to give if he’s only ever a 30/40 hitter. I think he’s at least a Drew Stubbs type of player.

11:20

Sean: Any word out of the AZL on Kole Enright (TEX) or Gabriel Garcia (MIL)?

11:22

Eric A Longenhagen: Enright has come along late but I’m still skeptical. Garcia is 1B-only for me so far, but there’s definitely something in the bat. Some all-fields power, barrel control…he’s interesting.

11:22

Jack C.: Travis Blankenhorn now slashing .308/.356/.538 between Rookie and A-ball. 12 2B, 3 3B, 10 HR in 53 games. He is obviously a few years away from having the chance to make a Major League roster, but should the Twins view him as a third baseman of the future? Or are you not so high on him?

11:23

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think I’d label him “3B of the Future” already but he’s a prospect worth following. PA kid with good hand-eye and bat control, fringe athlete, body has held serve so far.

11:23

Mark: Will you be the first to start giving jays’ sluggers Tellez and Guerrero some real love? Tellez is arguably having the best year of any 1B prospect in baseball, and Vladdy Jr is having almost unprecedented success as a 17yr old in the Appy, and both have barely tapped into their raw power upside yet.

11:23

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope. Love Lil’ Vlad’s bat speed, have concerns about the body and approach holding up at upper levels. Rowdy I’m not on.

11:23

The Cincinnati Kid: Is there a rough math way you can use a stat such as wRC+ from one level to get an idea of where a guy will be at the next level?

11:25

Eric A Longenhagen: MLEs attempt to do something like this but map to the Majors instead of the next minor league level up. I’m not a fan of them. Minor league hitting environments are possibly too volatile to make something like worth exploring, especially when data miners have all sorts of new MLB data to sift through with their time.

11:25

Dougy : Do you see Tyler Wade as an everyday MLB player?

11:25

Eric A Longenhagen: Not quite, think he’s a nice big league piece though. UTIL for me.

11:26

Cartwright: Eric, do you think there’s a chance JP Crawford could develop unforeseen power in the major leagues, like Lindor?

11:26

Eric A Longenhagen: Would take a pretty significant mechanical adjustment to allow for that. I’ll say no.

11:27

Dan: Between Lowell’s Dalbec and Hill, who’s more likely to be a legit prospect?

11:28

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they’re both “legit” in the sense that they’re worth monitoring and have a non-zero chance at being big leaguers. Dalbec has the loudest tool, his power, and a fallback option on the mound so I’ll say him.

11:28

BS: Bobby Dalbec is off to a hot start to his career….did they start him too low at Short Season ball given his college experience?

11:29

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they nailed his assignment, personally. Yes, he’s a college draftee but he barely played at UofA this season because he was striking out so much. I like that they’ve put him in a position where he can have some success, start to regain some confidence.

11:29

Jared: Any chance Francis Cespedes develops enough command to move up the ladder?

11:30

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeesh, I don’t know. Has been up to 98 with a plus change but it has been like 30 control and he’s a little advanced, age wise.

11:30

Vandy Guy: Bryan Reynolds has done nothing but hit since the draft. Could he be a quick to the bigs fourth OF?

11:31

Eric A Longenhagen: As long as the Giants are cool with him swinging and missing a bit, I think so. Could be a 2018 debut for him and I think he’ll be more than a fourth OF.

11:31

Steve: Luke Voit Cardinals AA: 2013 22nd round pick Can he stick at catcher? Can he push Carson Kelly? 22nd round, is that Cardinals Devil Magic?

11:31

Eric A Longenhagen: Has plus pull power but is 25 at Double-A and hasn’t caught at all this year.

11:31

Rick: .305/.370/.475 From Dom Smith as 21 y.o in AA. This finally the offseason when he gets some prospect love? How much?

11:32

Eric A Longenhagen: Dom Smith hasn’t gotten prospect love?

11:32

John: Top college pitcher? Do you like any of them more than Hunter Greene?

11:33

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say Faedo for now but want to throw Tristan Beck’s name into the discussion as a dark horse candidate to be the top college arm drafted. I think Greene has more upside than those guys but is obviously more of a risk.

11:34

Jack: What do you think about Quentin Holmes?

11:36

Eric A Longenhagen: That kid has A LOT of energy. More than I would be able to deal with, inter-personally. He can play. Chance for CF, lots of contact. Probably 2nd/3rd round type of guy off the top of my head.

11:36

Thatguy: How many games, on average, do you go to during the season? How much does it fluctuate for you?

11:37

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably close to 150? I haven’t sat and tried to figure it out for a while.

11:38

Jon: Mark Vientos a first round pick? Comps?

11:38

Eric A Longenhagen: Not for me. I try to avoid comps.

11:38

JP: How young is the youngest person you ever scouted? Middle School? Who was it?

11:39

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been at multi-field showcase events and seen two kids from afar who I liked and then checked the roster to find they were class of 2020.

11:39

Leo Durocher: Will the Japanese posting system change before Shohei Otani hits his prime years?

11:40

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not.

11:41

Johnny: Seems like we haven’t heard as much about Alex Toral. As a result of his being a 1B and/or other factors?

11:41

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes.

11:42

Chris: Andrew Pullin is raking in AA after leading the FSL in HR last year (OK, with 14 and a pedestrian overall line) and then briefly “retiring” this spring. Reading mirage or is there anything to see here?

11:43

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he has good bat to ball skills but I’m skeptical about the power, because Reading, and not sure the bat will profile in an OF corner.

11:44

paxman: Any info on the recently drafted Griffin Jax? How does he project in the Twins system?

11:46

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a prospect but it’s unclear how his military commitment will factor into his career. I know he was supposed to be able to throw for a few weeks while on leave but is still obligated to serve for a few more years while trying to pitch and develop betwixt his duties.

11:46

David: Who has the best chance to succeed between Max Fried and Touki Toussaint?

11:46

Eric A Longenhagen: Fried but I’m a fan of Touki’s as well.

11:47

John: Morning. Who has the higher upside? Maitan or Moniak? Floor? Who would you rather have?

11:48

Eric A Longenhagen: Maitan has more upside. Moniak probably has the higher floor just because the bat is so good.

11:48

BK: Best under the radar Jays prospect?

11:49

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t know if he’s the best but I’m a Josh Palacios fan.

11:49

Nick: thoughts on jasrado chisholm? how quickly do you think he can move through AZ’s system?

11:50

Eric A Longenhagen: Solid across the board tool set but nothing explosive. Chance to stay at SS. Not sure how fast he’ll move through the system, is till just in Pioneer League.

11:51

cc: Are Dustin Fowler or Miguel Andujar top 100ish guys for you next year after solid seasons in AA?

11:51

Eric A Longenhagen: No. Fowler might come close, though.

11:51

Braves fan: How real is Patrick weigel

11:52

Eric A Longenhagen: Has been up to 99, four viable big league pitches, just needs to improve command. It’s real but volatile.

11:53

nb: Hey Eric – What (if any) first impressions are you hearing about the GCL Phillies top 2016 picks (Moniak, Gowdy, and Stobbe)? Thanks!

11:53

Eric A Longenhagen: Basically the same as pre-draft reports.

11:53

Guest: How would you grade Brock Stewart’s fastball, changeup, and slider/cutter and what do you think his upside is? FB looks super impressive with great arm-side run and good velo difference/fade with the change up.

11:53

Eric A Longenhagen: plus fastball, plus cutter, fringe to average change

11:54

Greg: Jose de Leon ready?

11:55

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s ready in a sense that he has very little to learn from more starts at Triple-A but I wouldn’t expect him to dominate in the big leagues like he has in the PCL.

11:55

Sammy Sooser: Have you seen Oscar Arzaga pitch? Any takeaways?

11:55

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, last night. Touched 94, flashed an average slider.

11:56

MC Hammer: Does Amed Rosario have a higher ceiling than JP Crawford or his Rosario just flashing more power now?

11:56

Eric A Longenhagen: I do think Rosario has more upside than Crawford specifically because of the raw power.

11:56

Joe: Ceiling for Lucas Erceg?

11:56

Eric A Longenhagen: above average everyday 3B

11:57

Stuafoo: Who is the top woman prospect in baseball?

11:57

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably French SS Melissa Mayeux

11:58

Erik: Many of your responses, specifically about players’ bodies, seem remarkably similar to the scouts made fun of in Moneyball (selling jeans, etc.). Were those bits of the book misguided, or are you doing something different that I can’t tell?

11:59

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Lewis’ book was trying to hammer home a point and did it a little too well. I think that book was a net negative for the A’s and probably baseball in general but it’s also a huge reason why I’m here.

11:59

Dylan: What do you think of the A’s system overall? I feel like a lot of their prospects are close to the majors, which do you see having a major impact?

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: I think they had a good deadline and did well in Latin America this year. The draft, I thought, was fine. Good value to get Puk where they did, even if I’m not his biggest fan. Jeffries has looked good since returning from injury.

12:02

Andrew: Have you revised your projection of Urias based on his relatively quick adjustments in the majors?

12:02

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, I’m good with it.

12:03

Jose : Based solely on the bat, pick one of Kyle Lewis or Jorge Ona

12:03

Eric A Longenhagen: Lewis

12:03

Eric A Longenhagen: OKay I have to get to the West Valley for a 10am start. See you all next week.





Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.

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