Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: 9/25
| 12:02 |
: Hello friends and neighbors, it’s good to be home in Tempe and back on the backfield grind. Let’s chat for an hour and go do some more, shall we?
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| 12:04 |
: Anything to get excited about with Max Williams? Sounds like big EVs and decent enough contact rates? Is this a possible helium guy?
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| 12:07 |
: Marlins good-bodied OF prospect out of Florida State, really physical 22-year-old kid with big lefty pop. Missed most of the season with a shoulder issue (iirc) and then raked in a limited sample. Plus power, metrics way better than they were last year. I can see why Beeg slid him off the main section of the Marlins list based on last year’s data, but it looks way different than in ’25. 51% hard hit, 114 max. Contact rate is scary, down at 70% even though he was mostly in A-ball this year. Def a prospect, still probably a lower-ranked one.
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| 12:08 |
: Any idea what happened to Aiva Arquette? It was surprising to see him placed on the IL with two days left in the AA season
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| 12:09 |
: Blerg, I didn’t see that. Let me see if I can run down what happened and his Fall League prognosis during chat…
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| 12:10 |
: Of the players likely coming over this offseason from Korea and Japan, who projects to have the biggest impact … and contract?
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| 12:14 |
: I think Teruaki Sato will be this offseason’s main guy. Kaima Taira, Andres Machado, Austin Dean 오스틴, Darnwinzon Hernandez, Seigi Tanaka, Hiromi Itoh, Hiroko Saiki and perhaps Kona Takahashi are the other names that have been bandied about
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| 12:14 |
: I’m working on an update on Asian pros for next week btw
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| 12:14 |
: You and Brendan have both been pretty high on TGA in the past, but I believe have both expressed some concern about the lack of progression this year. Where are you all landing on him as of the end of the year? Is he still a T100 candidate or has that been bumped back another year?
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| 12:16 |
: I imagine we’ll elevate him because he’s checked the stamina and durability box more soundly now that he threw 100 innings. The “evaluation” really hasn’t changed even though he had a FIP near 5, it’s just about how we “value” him because he’s a level closer, a year closer, and demonstrated the innings piece.
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| 12:17 |
: The Twins have Victor Caratini signed through next season. If they don’t get a free-agent C as a backup, is any of their AAA depth capable of the job? Do you think Diaw (or even Lackey) could be ready by midseason?
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| 12:19 |
: I think they should play in the third catcher market and roll with Caratini, Jackson, and a third guy until Lackey is ready, and I do think it could become apparent that he is in the middle of next year. I don’t think Diaw is a catcher, or at least I think he’s still too green to be in the big leagues when camp breaks.
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| 12:20 |
: with the caveat that the K rate is still terrible, what’s led to spencer jones running better contact rates in MLB than he did in the minors? is it a mechanical adjustment, has he just improved, or do you think it’s just noise and he’s the same
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| 12:22 |
: It’s probably small sample noise. I would imagine a greater ratio of his big league plate appearances came against righties (or against pitchers who Boone thought were favorable matchups for him), whereas in the minors he was just playing every day.
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| 12:23 |
: Should we read anything into Max Anderson not getting the call during September? My understanding is he needs to be added to the 40 this offseason. Would have made sense to get a look at him if they liked him more, yes?
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| 12:24 |
: Could have just been Hao-Yu Lee (very similar role player) getting hot down the stretch and commanding the playing time, and it also might be that the Tigers don’t think there will be a Rule 5 Draft because of the lockout and didn’t want to add him unnecessarily.
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| 12:24 |
: what did you think of angeibel gomez
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| 12:25 |
: Working on that piece for later today, will include video of him homering. It was a first look, I’m not “all in” in quite the same way I was with Made, but he’s physical and has real power.
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| 12:25 |
: Let’s say, hypothetically, the Dbacks trade Perdomo this offseason. Can Jose Fernandez handle is defensively over a full season?
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| 12:26 |
: The defense piece he can do, yes. But you’re talking about a sub-.300 OBP everyday shortstop. I’m irrationally attached to Perdomo (even though sometimes he seemed scared to cut it loose this year, bunting in 2-0 counts and whatnot) and don’t want him moved.
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| 12:28 |
: Not a prospect anymore, but you were really high on Edgardo Henriquez if I remember correctly? Do you think he has a shot to grab the closer role in LA at some point early next year?
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| 12:28 |
: Yes, back of the top 100 guy for me a couple years ago. Freak arm strength. I do think he’ll be in the closer miz.
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| 12:28 |
: Does Spencer Miles have the stuff to start? Or should the Jays leave him in the bullpen?
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| 12:28 |
: I think he has the mix to start, it’s more about whether he can stay healthy in that role.
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| 12:28 |
: Appreciated the notes you posted from the instructs game the other day. When you said Montero “made several impressive (if technically unsound) plays at shortstop”, what does that mean exactly? Like he made some tough plays, but he looked awkward making them?
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| 12:29 |
: Trying to get around on balls he should just backhand.
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| 12:29 |
: Brett Bateman ran an unsustainable BABIP, but the contact ability seems real. With his speed and defense is there an everyday CF in there? Or is he a 4th OF who ran an unsustainable BABIP?
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| 12:29 |
: The thing about him that I think is bunk are his defensive metrics. That’s a fringe CF for me. Love the bat to ball piece and think his move in the box allows him to get more out of his little body than I expect. Think he’s a piece but not a 50 or anything like that.
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| 12:29 |
: What happened with the Reds and Driveline? Reds being cheap?or difference in philosophy? Have you heard what the latest is on Derek Johnson? Heard he took a leave of absence and never heard anything more about him.
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| 12:31 |
: Man, idk. The Driveline folks move fast, they’re never in any one place for very long. Teams take their framework and then try to apply it on their own. Sometimes it’s just not the right interpersonal fit. DJ i have no idea.
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| 12:31 |
: Odds Davalan can actually handle second base?
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| 12:33 |
: There are probably three outcomes for that:
we’re about to find all this out in AFL, hopefully. |
| 12:34 |
: Brendan mentioned he’ll be pounding the table for Bernal as a T100 addition. Would you concur with that? Thoughts on his MLB performance so far?
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| 12:34 |
: Give me all the catching depth
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| 12:34 |
: Are people who played college or pro ball generally considered more likely to become strong scouts?
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| 12:36 |
: You have a foundation of interpersonal relationships and knowledge of the schedule that would prevent you from drowning, plus you’ve already had to do a version of the travel piece. There are definitely advantages to it, but some orgs are much more open to who they consider for those roles and whether or not you’re an ex-player isn’t important. Cistulli’s Blue Jays tenure is going well enough that he moved to Toronto. That guy was writing poetry in college, not taking infield aor improving his shoulder mobility.
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| 12:36 |
: I’ve asked Brendan this but I’m curious about your thoughts too. Any thoughts on why, for all their recent success developing pitchers, the Mariners haven’t produced a single even halfway decent pitching prospect from Latin America recently? Seems like a weird disconnect and, if it’s about focusing their scouting efforts on hitters, a potential missed opportunity.
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| 12:40 |
: Some of the “blame” can be attributed to how difficult it is to develop Latino pitching, period. The 40-man timeline compresses their development, guys like Francisco Morales and Helcris Olivarez get added prematurely because they have big stuff, and then they can’t develop as strike-throwers quickly enough to stick on the roster. Look around the game and there aren’t a ton of DOminican starters, generally.
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| 12:41 |
: Some of it is they gave guys like Dawel Joseph and Starlin Aguilar a bunch of money rather than try to go-wide with projectable pitchers. Overall they’re doing okay in latin america, I’d say. but yeah the pitching part is not why.
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| 12:41 |
: Eric! I was thinking about Jaxon Wiggins, and how going into the season everyone expected he would be a potential second-half call-up candidate, but instead was hurt and then bad and now looks like he might be nothing at all. Obviously that particular case affects me more than you because I root for his parent club, but what are some guys that might have missed this year that really got you down? Like “man, I thought that guy was gonna pop this year and he didn’t.”
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| 12:41 |
| 12:43 |
: Ben Hess
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| 12:43 |
| 12:44 |
| 12:44 |
| 12:45 |
: I am going to be at Oct 17 AFL Triple Header in Goodyear. I have been to several AFL Games before including a Peoria afternoon and Mesa double header last yr. Any thoughts on attending the Triple Header?
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| 12:46 |
: sneak in snacks, charge your bluetooth headphones
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| 12:46 |
: Does the Peña injury make it more likely that Made will stick at short for the foreseeable future, or do you think his position focus will be independent of Peña’s long-term injury, with a potential 2027 ML debut for Made?
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| 12:47 |
: Pena looked like he was outgrowing SS even faster than Made, I think what Pratt can do on defense (with the exception of his god awful throw in yesterday’s game) is the thing that might push Made elsewhere, and not Pena.
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| 12:47 |
: Hello Eric, when does the Arizona Instructional season end? I will be at the AFL starting on 10/10, do I have any chance to see any instuctional games while I’m there? If so, any tips on attending them other than bring your own lawn chair? Thank you.
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| 12:49 |
: Teams mostly start wrapping up next week. LAA and SF play games against eachother October 5 and 6, those are the last ones on the schedule I have.
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| 12:50 |
: Would a Gabriel Moreno-esque outcome be a fair comp for Caden Bodine? Feels like they similarly have 10-15 homer power, high contact rates, and above average defense. Or am I overestimating him?
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| 12:50 |
: Not quite the defender Moreno is but I see what you’re getting at.
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| 12:50 |
: Do you think Elliot Lascelles can develop enough power to hit 10-15 homers in majors?
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| 12:50 |
: He’ll be in the article i finish today, early looks are that he’s really going to hit. 10-15 is reasonable
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| 12:51 |
: Been watching a bunch of Rockies games. Carrigg looks like a kinda post-modern Tony Phillips, gonna be streaky but good. Connor Norby is brutal in 2B but if he plays everyday in Coors will hit 55 doubles. Zac Veen has the worst setup, they need to get his hands away from his body, he is consistently late on anything above his waist. And Brendan’s boy Amador looks like he has figured some stuff out, looks way stronger. Any unreasonable observations?
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| 12:52 |
: I concur across the board. Maybe less on Norby than you.
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| 12:53 |
: How much do game instincts play into an eval? What do you look for in relatively small sample to make you believe?
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| 12:57 |
: They do, much more for an actual pro scout than for me. It’s easier to see that stuff when you’re sitting on an entire 6-game series for a week than when you’re scope is as broad as mine and seeing guys in a more scattered way. There’s also something about the pressure cooker of the big leagues that makes it more obvious when someone isn’t as fluent or proficient at the “game of baseball” aspects. Plus the little bits and pieces can be tough to mine. How often does Luis Lara *need* to read the ball off the bat and confidently go first to third when other runners wouldn’t have? To be in the ballpark for that moment and see it happen is pretty random.
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| 12:57 |
: FYPD quandary: who has the higher upside between Grindlinger and Bo Lowrance? Is Lowrance likely to stay at 3B?
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| 12:58 |
: Grindlinger looks great, Lowrance supposedly showed up out of shape (haven’t seen him, that’s scout gossip).
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| 12:58 |
: Who is the best bet (I realize anyone is unlikely) to be next year’s Sal Stewart?
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| 12:59 |
| 12:59 |
: Any reason to be lower on Alexander Frias than everyone was mid-season? He got traded and then didn’t light up the higher level, but still so young and projectable so we give him grace, correct?
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| 1:00 |
: Correct. Underyling data looks just like Caminero’s same age, full-season ball debut. Love him despite the obvious risks and warts.
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| 1:00 |
: What didnt pop with Dalis? He had a 137 wRC+ at 19 in full season ball, what are we missing?
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| 1:01 |
: Much K’s
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| 1:02 |
: OKay guys, time for me to depart and write some more. Talk next week on the Eve of Fall League, we’ll have some AFL stuff to preview and discuss. byeee
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Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Re 12:23 – the deadline for protecting Rule 5 guys is usually the Tuesday before Thanksgiving, which would be pre-lockout. Assuming that holds it would seem pretty risky for the Tigers to not add Anderson to the 40 in hopes the draft doesn’t eventually happen.