Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: All the Marbles

Eric A Longenhagen: Howdy, everyone. Let’s just dive right in.

Greg: Do you think Alex Jackson will atleast be a MLB back up type, 4th OFer/3rd catcher type, power off bench?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think there’s enough going on that he has some kind of big league role, yes. And I don’t rule him out as a regular just yet. I’ve probably said this before, but evaluating catcher defense in the AFL is really tough. Guys are ground down from a long season and also suddenly catching an entirely new staff. I’ve had many scouts warn me of mistakes they’ve made by weighing AFL looks at catchers too heavily.

Dan: In curious if you could provide some semi historical context for the relative wave of “meh” reviews we are getting on Maitan. In terms of other top international amateurs, I have to imagine many struggle as 17 year olds, and many have body concerns. Does this feel more noteworthy just because of the “generational talent” hype?  Is this a relatively normal level of struggle?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. Yes, 17-year olds who come here and are asked to rapidly assimilate to our culture (which includes access to a lot of food that isn’t good for you which, at age 17, I l consumed frequently) often struggle to do so. And that combined with the difficulty of being a pro baseball player often leads to some unflattering growing pains. So, while I’d rather have scouts telling me he looks amazing, this isn’t something to lose sleep over just yet. At least I don’t think so.

Hooha: Who are you most interested to see in Arizona?

Eric A Longenhagen: Robles, now that he has arrived.

SAL fan: I know you are no fan of comps, but if Acuña ends up having Adam Jones levels of production, that’s a great outcome, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Josh Nelson: What are your thoughts about Seby Zavala? Is his offensive profile good? Can he stick as a catcher?

Eric A Longenhagen: First saw Seby at San Diego St where he was part of one of the more fun college teams I’ve scouted. His profile has some holes but he has power, arm strength and leadership qualities. I’ve always thought he would end up being a 2nd or 3rd catcher. Haven’t seen him in AFL just yet due to the way catcher playing time gets spread out.

Erix: Jays fans haven’t gotten to see much of TJ Zeuch to get them excited, but the results have been great in Fall League. So, *extremely Seinfeld voice* Whaaaaat’s the deal with TJ Zeuch?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like him. Very loose and repeats well for a guy his size. Stuff is not dominant but sinker 90-94, slider, curveball, changeup with solid average command. I think he could be a #4.

Jack : Thoughts on Sheldon Neuse? Strikeouts + defense seem like they could be issues, but the bat is impressive

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’ll be fine at third base (his arm will help mask a lack of great range) and that the combination of power and patience is enough for him to be a regular.

Anthony: If Justus Sheffield reaches his ceiling,  are we looking at a front end starter or more or a good number 2/3?

Eric A Longenhagen: More of a 2/3. Mid-90s, plus slider, non-traditional (but still effective) changeup from the left side.

Waltharius: Who in the padres organization has a potential of cracking the top 100 next year? Are there any power bats outside of Tatis that we the fans should be hopeful for?

Eric A Longenhagen: Any of the young infielders could get there. Power bats? Ona, Barley and Franmil Reyes have pop but I don’t think Reyes is a top 100 candidate.

Bored Lawyer, Esq: What have you seen from Daniel Johnson and Moutcastle in the AFL. I always though Mounty has too much of a guess fastball approach (a lot of sharp foul balls into third base dugouts). Does Johnson profile as a regular for you?

Eric A Longenhagen: Johnson has been okay, not as twitchy as he was when I saw him in college but that could just be due to fatigue.  Mountcastle has been fine, not as hitterish as other bat-only infielders from recent years (like Castellanos) but the feel to hit is there. And he has viable arm strength, just a weird arm stroke that impacts throw quality and accuracy.

Tim: Where would you take this prospect? 5’11” 210 right handed pitcher from cold weather state not much good competition  experience. 93-97 FB, 60 curve, 60 slider, 60 changeup. violent delivery but good athlete.

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d have to see the delivery but that’s a top 5 guy. Four plus pitches right now? Gerrit Cole had three coming out of UCLA.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: You’ve mentioned in past chats that you played MLB Showdown and loved the 2001 sets. I have been revisiting the 2001 set (partial to 2000, personally). What was going on with the 1-8 pop outs for Travis Harper?!
http://www.showdowncards.com/store/customer/product.php?productid=1473…

Eric A Longenhagen: As weird as the random Doug Glanville OF+3 rating and this Juan Guzman point misprint. http://www.showdowncards.com/store/customer/product.php?productid=683&…

Eric A Longenhagen: (A player’s point value was essentially his salary and, when building a team, you had a 5000 pt cap. Guzman was basically a #2 starter in the game with a lousy bench player’s salary)

Ralph L: Which player that you’ve observed in instructs or AFL (not named Acuna) has the best chance at an MLB impact next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: So far it’s Acuna. He’s clearly the most dynamic talent in the AFL.

Mac: Have you ever seen the movie “Trouble with the Curve” and if so what do you think of its depiction of what life is like for a scout?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Let’s just say Summer Catch is the second worst baseball movie Matthew Lillard has been in.

Bobopedia: Do you think Mitch White is a back end top 100 prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t. Was 90-92 for me during instructs and has had multiple injury issues dating back to college. He’s a good prospect, but probably a half grade beneath top 100 consideration.

Waltharius: I heard that 2018 draft will be comparable to 2011 draft with the amount of talent. I know it’s early but how many players do you think have a chance to crack the top 100 at this moment?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think next year’s draft is DEEP, like you might get a 2nd round guy in the back of the 3rd round and a 3rd round guy in the 5th. Typically a draft has 6-10 guys who crack the top 100, I think this year might be more like 8-12.

Giants Fan: Are there any pitchers in the Giants system who you think has a realistic shot at breaking into the Giants Rotation in the future

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t seen Beede yet (I heard he tuned up with the Giants instrux group last week as they wrapped) but I think he, Suarez and Gregorio could all be backend rotation guys. Garrett Williams is a sleeper, too. Has great stuff, just didn’t pitch much in college because of command issues.

Trixie: In retrospect, do you think the Padres made a smart move in carrying those three Rule 5 players?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I don’t think there was much downside to rostering those three. Opportunity cost was probably just extra reps for guys like Asuaje who ended up getting plenty of them anyway.

Dylan: Bellinger, Judge, and Hoskins all put up historic power displays this year. Obviously it’s impossible to predict, but which rookie has the best chance to do something similar in 2018?

Eric A Longenhagen: Eloy has that kind of power if he gets there. Willie Calhoun and Acuna.

brooms: Do you find that prospects take a lot of pride in their orgs during this time of year when their parent teams make the WS? There’s a balance between “good for org/team pride” and “Doesnt matter until I get there”

Eric A Longenhagen: Most of the prospects are invested in what the MLB team is doing in the playoffs. The teams do a good job of nurturing that by doing things like, say, moving instructional  league start times so there’s plenty of time for everyone to get ready to watch the big league team’s game.

Sharp: Following the thought that economic behavior is rational, how should we evaluate trades?  Expected WAR of the players offset by Salary in Dollars per WAR?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think the relationship between WAR and $ is linear enough to do that and teams who think they have a chance to win a ring would come out looking bad if we did.

Nick: Do you think Andy Yerzy can stick at catcher? And do you think the power he showed this season was legit?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t love him back there but yeah, he has power.

TH: Is Miguel Andujar the Yankees future starting 3B?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say yes

Danbury: Better pro- Peter Alonso or Dom Smith?

Eric A Longenhagen: I prefer Smith but Alonso is legit.

D.B. Sweeney as Shoeless Joe: Nobody cares about prospects in October

Eric A Longenhagen:

Nick: Can Garrett Hampton hit enough to become a major league regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: Garrett Hampson with Colorado? Utility guy for me.

ToMcN: Keepers league: Rhys Hoskins or Matt Olson?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hoskins

Justin: What are your thoughts on the Pirates draft? Especially 1-4 picks with them going all high school. Anyone other than Baz worthy of getting excited about?

Eric A Longenhagen: I liked it, but I’m a sucker for upside. Baz is sort of a freak. Multiple plus pitches right now, he’s just wild. Uselton has a lot of power projection and Jennings is the kind of two-sport guy who might take off now that he’s focusing on baseball (this is not an endorsement of sport specialization in high schoolers. play all the sports, kids)

Mark: took a tour of Oriole Park yesterday, absolutely amazing

Eric A Longenhagen: I still have it ahead of PNC.

romorr: Really like Keegan Akin, he profiles as a 3/4, so what more does he need to do to bump that up to a 2/3?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not quite as enthused about Akin as you (I think there’s relief risk there), but I do think the stuff is pretty good.

John: Is Brendan Rodgers a SS long-term?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, but he’s not Russell, Lindor or anything like that.

Anthony: Is Zach Lovvorn a real prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah. Low-90s, average breaking ball and changeup. Salright.

James: What should the Pirates do with Meadows? Trade him? Replace Cutch with him? What’s his upside?

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t think you can deal him, right? Stock too low after this year. You just run him back to Indy and see what happens.

GPT: You said you were saving Giants camp for the last week, anybody stand out?

Eric A Longenhagen: The aforementioned Williams, Melvin Adon, Jose Marciano’s curveball, Gregory Santos (92-5 with chance for a plus slider). They have a lot of intriguing young guys.

Amazon13: Munoz a top 25/50 for the padres coming up

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure what the 25/50 means (apologies) but if Munoz were a draft eligible high schooler (he’s 18) we’d be talking about him as a potential top 20 pick, even with the relief risk.

Guest: Do you think the Astros have any good potential breakout candidates for next year? Kind of like Yordan Alvarez was for us this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I love Celestino

Sharp: Which of the Nats AAA outfielders, Stevenson or Bautista, has more value to the team and to trade?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Stevenson. I think some clubs think he’s a regular. Bautista is pretty universally considered a 4th OF.

romorr: Orioles have a hole in RF next year, and need to spend on starting pitchers.  Hays didn’t look great, SSS aside.  What would you do if you were the Orioles?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think you give Hays time to figure it out.

LegallyEagle: Is Alex Verdugo competing to be a starting outfielder next spring, or is he still looking at another year of seasoning in the minors?

Eric A Longenhagen: The former.

Adam D.: Way, way too early, but Hankins, Kelenic or someone else for the Giants at #2?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’d take the field.

Jon: What’s your outlook on Monte Harrison?  The tools are certainly there, but does he have the ability to turn himself into a highly regarded OF prospect in the next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve been really high, like early-80s NBA high, on Harrison since high school. I cannot provide rational thoughts on him. It’s as if he were engineered in a lab to appeal specifically to me.

Keefths: How high are you on Trammel compared to Juan Soto, Florial,  Jo Adell, Brandon Marsh ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Man, that’s tough. I take him over Florial and Soto (more confidence he’ll hit than Florial, better defensive profile than Soto) and he’s further along than the Angels kids.

John: Do you still have durability concerns with Triston McKenzie? He routinely threw 80/90 pitches per start and a bump of 60 IP from ’16 to ’17 without injury has to be a great sign, right?

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed

Jaff: Do you consider the way the Astros rebuilt their franchise the ideal way of rebuilding a club for a smaller market team?

Eric A Longenhagen: Not sure Houston is a small market and I don’t think draft Appel instead of Bryant nor the Brady AIken fiasco were ‘ideal’, but I think that club has proven it has processes in place and talented front office folks that has brought them here.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Is there any public or private historical archive of scouting reports?

Eric A Longenhagen: There used to be a site with archived reports but I think it’s been shut down.

Eric A Longenhagen: I used it to write stuff like this back in the day: http://crashburnalley.com/2013/06/04/phillies-draft-retrospective-chas…

Ron Gardenhire: Do you have any thoughts on Kody Eaves?

Eric A Longenhagen: Like the bat to ball but he isn’t great at second and there’s not a whole lot of power there.

Jon: What’s going on with Corey Ray?  Have you seen anything from him that might suggest that he can regain his hitting form?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m still in on Ray but my voice is becoming lonely. I like how selective he is, the bat speed is still there and he’s been fine in CF when I’ve seen him. I think he needs to loosen up at the plate, be more active and loose instead of stride-less and stationary. He’s clearly frustrated right now, pressing.

Andrew S: Andrew Knizner – how has his defense looked in the fall league? Will he be able to stick behind the dish?

Eric A Longenhagen: Haven’t seen him throw yet but his receiving looks solid, as does his ground game. He’s moving up for me.

Keefths: Do you prefer Jack Flaherty or Walker Buelher ?

Eric A Longenhagen: Buehler’s stuff is >

Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Is Yordan Alvarez injured? He hasn’t played in a while?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll check on that today. Was gone for a few days to hit a wedding and to see my newborn nephew so I’m out of the loop on that stuff right now. Hitting Mesa this afternoon so I’ll poke around and tweet something if I hear word.

joe: Thoughts on florial and sheffield thus far?

Eric A Longenhagen: Florial has been frustrating but he’s clearly explosive. Sheffield has been nails.

Vinicius: Thoughts on Royals prospects on AFL? (Cancel, López, vallot, …)

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Lopez is the best of that group and has a chance to be an everyday shortstop.

Nick: Is there an equivalent in other sports to 3TO hitters? I was thinking maybe 3&D players in basketball.

Eric A Longenhagen: 3&D, yes. Also maybe guys with great defensive FG% and who shoot at a high percentage near the rim. Not sure there’s a football equivalent. Maybe pure deep threat receivers?

MaineBall: Speaking of Jays prospects, I saw Reese McGuire the other night in the DR. He looked sound behind the plate and threw out Magnerius Sierra on a steal attempt. He also showed some pop in his bat. Did struggle against LHP though. What’s a reasonable ceiling and also outcome for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s a backup for me.

Babe Lincoln: Any interesting Mets performances in AFL?

Eric A Longenhagen: I love the way Thomas Nido takes huge hacks. I’ve seen him obliterate a few balls.

Jason D: Where does Aramis Ademan end up settling positionally?

Eric A Longenhagen: I give him a good chance to stay at short with second base as the next likely landing spot.

Show Hey O’Tawny: I can’t get California Dreamin’ out of my head. Is this because it’s so goddamn hot in LA today?

Eric A Longenhagen: 97 here today. I typically ride my bike to Mesa because it’s close to home but the heat just won’t quit.

Show Hey O’Tawny: Who has an 80-grade personality among prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t interact with most of them on a personal level but I’ve seen Chris Shaw treat people especially well this fall.

Jason D: Will Oscar De La Cruz ever stay healthy enough to reach his potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m growing skeptical.

dbminn: Have you seen Tyler Jay throw in AFL? Any thoughts? Also – Chris Paul is playing for Surprise. He’s never been a “prospect” but had a good year in A+ for the Twins. Does he have a chance?

Eric A Longenhagen: Jay was 92-94 for Keith in his first appearance and then 89-92 for me late last week. I think both breaking balls can be effective but obviously there’s more to think about than just stuff with Jay, because of the injuries.

Jason D: What are Sam Carlson’s best pitches and what does he need to work on?

Eric A Longenhagen: Fastball/breaking ball. Needs to continue working on the changeup that he didn’t need in high school but I think he has promising feel for it.

Adam: What sort of player does Dodgers C Will Smith project to be?

Eric A Longenhagen: The skillset reads an awful lot like Austin Barnes. Same with Wong.

Jason D: Who are some Rule 5 guys who later went on to be stars?

Eric A Longenhagen: Johan Santana, Shane Victorino, Odubel Herrera, Josh Hamilton…there are guys.

Sonny: I lived in that apartment complex in the Tex/KC facility in Surprise when the Rangers were in the WS. It was pretty wild during fall league. Paper thin walls + rowdy Ranger prospects

v2micca: Harsh assessment of Trouble with the Curve.  I will give it this much credit, both Trouble and Draft Day taught me that if your top prospect is named Bo, he is likely a bust.  Seems a reasonable assumption in real life as well.

Jason D: Favorite baseball movie?  Best baseball movie?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sandlot. Bad News Bears/Bull Durham. Favorite sports movie is Breaking Away.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, Cistulli has requested a pod from me so I’m off to squeeze that in before AFL. Thanks for all your questions, sorry I couldn’t get to more in the 90mins. Be well and enjoy the World Series. Dodgers in 7.