Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: Instructional League Tour

Eric A Longenhagen: Good morning, all. I’ll start today by encouraging you to help our friends in Puerto Rico if you have the means to do so. Let’s chat.

Nick: Can you shed any light on what’s wrong with Maikel Franco? His peripherals are normal (except a low-BABIP). It’s it really just bad luck or is there a mechanical issue?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just based on the Phillies games I’ve seen he’s not a very good ‘Baseball Player’ which is to say he makes poor approach decisions at the plate that lead to bad contact when he’s making it. Was it yesterday or the day before he swung 2-0 with the team down two in the ninth inning? You need a baserunner in that situation and should be taking a strike. It wouldn’t surprise me if, upon deeper analysis, you were to find the quality of his contact suffered because his approach is just bad.

Dan: Luis Garcia of the Nats seemed to show decent bat skills. Could he maybe start the year in Hagerstown?  What is his development looking like?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have no idea. I like Garcia but that will be probably be largely determined by how he looks next spring.

Mr. Sunshine: Who are your favorite prospects (<131 AB) to stash or keep for early-mid season MLB returns in fantasy next year?

Eric A Longenhagen: You can probably cross-reference Sept debuts with my lists and get the names you’re looking for but Verdugo and Calhoun are the two that come to mind for me immediately.

osick87: Could Nate Pearson break into the top 100

Eric A Longenhagen: At some point, sure. But for now there’s enough relief risk there that I really doubt he makes my offseason 100.

Dylan B: who in the minors has the best chance of debuting in the bigs before they’re 20?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably Vlad Jr.

Tribe: Do you really see Eric Haase becoming the Indians’ primary catcher? Is his bat/defense good enough compared to Mejia?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he has a chance to be an everyday catcher but not better than Mejia if Mejia continues to play there.

Weird question guy: Couple practical questions on instructs: do players get paid?  Can they/do they opt out?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pretty sure they’re not paid, not sure about the second question but I imagine they’d be discouraged from doing so.

Nick: Do you think it’s worth changing Yandy Diaz‘ swing for more fly balls given his peripherals?

Eric A Longenhagen: Meh. He’s 26 and already a solid big league contributor with what he’s got going on, so probably not.

YouthBerry: Fernando Tatis Jr. of the Padres organization, is a 55 future hit tool realistic?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Lewis Thorpe: What’s Lewis Thorpe’s upside if he stays healthy?

Eric A Longenhagen: Realistically? Mid-rotation guy. Still just 21.

Nick: I read that Kevin Kramer will be a shortstop in fall league. Is there any chance he sticks there long term or is second base more likely?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, due to Cole Tucker‘s injury. Kramer is 2B-only for me.

RMR: I saw from Doug Gray that you had Hunter Greene’s fastball at a relatively low 2200 RPM despite sitting 100.  What are the implications of that for his effectiveness?

Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t say 2200 is ‘low’, it’s average, almost exactly Major League average. But of course ‘average’ in this case isn’t an evaluation of effectiveness, just spin, and ‘average’ spin rates tend to be worse than well above or below average. I don’t know how a 98+ fastball plays with 2200rpm off the top of my head but there might be another big leaguer with those measurables to look at as precedent. Greene got shelled yesterday but was clearly working on his breaking balls and he was hit with two consecutive comebackers, which had to suck.

Braves Marshmallow Experiment: Thoughts on Bae? Have any idea on scouting values for him?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like a utility prospect.

Lawyer avoiding work: What kind of offensive line does an elite defensive catcher like J Rogers have to put up to be an all star caliber guy?  Saw him a few times this year. Cat quick and a cannon. Decent bat control for a guy with a deep low hand position too

Eric A Longenhagen: Maybe something like what Yasmani Grandal did this year

Kris in Seattle: Any plans for Fangraphs to expand its prospect coverage east? Content seems to steer towards teams with complexes in AZ.

Eric A Longenhagen: Well, I do live here.

Eric A Longenhagen: And there aren’t hurricanes cancelling instrux here.

Eric A Longenhagen: So, you’re gonna get more AZ stuff.

churchill’s black dog: Eric: what’s your opinion of Isan Diaz?  Does he have a chance to make the Big Show if he improves his contact rates?  The power appears to be real.  Thanks!

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he gets to enough of the power to play everyday, yes.

Nick: Theoretically, could J.P. Crawford make similar swing changes as Lindor and be a 20+ HR threat?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure. Hell, Freddy Galvis hit 20 last year. In fact, based on how Matt Olson, Rhys Hoskins, Cody Bellinger and Aaron Judge have taken to the new baseball, I’m surprised Crawford doesn’t already have 20 homers

Loren: Which of the Padre prospects in the AZL do you see making the biggest impact/raising their stock the most?

Eric A Longenhagen: Esteury Ruiz, Tirso Ornelas, Luis Patino and Jordy Barley were all impressive this summer.

iron wolf: I know Teoscar Hernandez isn’t a prospect anymore, but have you gotten a chance to see him play?  Looks like he’s finishing the season strong.  Thx!

Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’ll be a solid everyday big leaguer

Timothy: Thoughts on Taylor Trammell after the instructional league game?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nothing so obvious that I have thoughts after seeing him for one day. Likely heading to Camelback after the chat to straddle LAD/CIN/CWS/SD so perhaps I’ll get another look if he’s in the lineup.

Guest: what are the chances austin riley breaks mid-season top 100 lists? has the defense come along enough to stick at 3B and does it look like he could hit enough that the Ks won’t kill him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I doubt it

Anthony: Were there any real prospects on the AZL Dodgers?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, Marinan, Arzaga, Cespedes, Jimenez, Otteson, Zabala….I could go on forever, baby.

Anthony: Do you still see Jorge Alfaro as a potential regular?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes but he, too, continues to frustrate.

Batflips for BB: What are your thoughts on positional changes when a prospect is brought to the majors in order to make room for him? I’m particularly thinking about the Phillies trying Crawford at 3B and Hoskins in LF.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think lots of the best teams in MLB right now have positional flexibility across their roster and teams like Philly have an opportunity to build that into their future at times like this.

MLB Showdown: What were some of your favorite cards from MLB Showdown? Have you heard of Clutch Moment?

Eric A Longenhagen: Clutch Baseball? Yeah I scooped those up for nostalgia purposes when they came out but haven’t played games with them because I’m a lonely nerd. I like the look of the 2001 Showdown cards best. Luis Castillo is up there for me, I like how that green/blue looks in foil.

Xolo: Are there any older minor leaguers/AAAA guys who rebuilt their stock this year and deserve a look for 2018?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. I know Cody Asche had a good year so maybe he gets a look. Ildemaro Vargas probably has a big league job somewhere next year, too.

Eric A Longenhagen: Wilmer Font, I guess. Though he’s probably just a reliever.

Dave!: What’s changed on your scouting grades for Judge’s power? you put 55 current, 70 ceiling, and he’s surpassed his ceiling already

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m not sure how to project power anymore, to be honest. The ball, as well as a myriad of other factors, has changed the way the game plays on paper in the big leagues. And only in the big leagues, which is a problem.

Eric A Longenhagen: Just like robot umps will if they’re only implemented in the big leagues.

Chris: Assuming Acuna replaces Markakis…who are some MLB ready OF prospects that the Braves should target to replace Kemp?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mike Engelberg. Has better range than Kemp.

John: Opinion on 2018 OF Alek Thomas?

Eric A Longenhagen: Very advanced as a ballplayer for a prospect from a cold-weather climate. Love his feel to hit, think he has more raw power than the frame suggests. Could be a late rd1 guy. For recent reference, Thomas is not as physical as Nick Plummer but far more advanced.

John: are teams playing less games during instructs than before? why do teams seem to prefer camp games instead?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes. Some teams have long instrux schedules, some play 3 or 4 games, some play none (Seattle, St. Louis, Cleveland) but I don’t know the rationale behind not playing other than ‘we’re working on other stuff’ which is fine. But of course I’d rather see games, it doesn’t mean that’s the best course of action for teams/players.

Mark: Is Victor Robles on the postseason roster and if he is does he start if Harper isnt ready or looking good?

Eric A Longenhagen: He might just be better than Werth is right now.

E: Do you know what percent of the prospect failure rate can be attributed to injury? Is there any data on this somewhere?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know what percentage but I’d guess it’s about 20%? We could do a quick glance at an old top 100 list or two and see how many of them just got hurt. We’d probably have to define ‘failure’ more clearly, though.

Eric A Longenhagen: Like, is Cameron Maybin a failure? He was a top 5-10 prospect for BA back in 2008, and while he hasn’t become a star he is playing in the big leagues a decade later. Is that failure?

SC: Did anything that Luis Robert did in the DSL this year affect his evaluation, or was he so clearly above that level of competition that his stint there was useless for scouts?

Eric A Longenhagen: Useless. Evaluated purely on tools right now, will get a good look next spring.

Baloo: Is Mike Gerber anything to be excited about?  Nice season at AA, great (SSS) start at AAA, but… he’s kinda old.

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Gerber as at least a platoon OF. And I think you can make an argument that his glove is good enough to play him everyday, even against lefties.

Blue Morpho: How many fake name prospect questions do you get in a chat? I sometimes wonder if I’m missing out on a joke.

Eric A Longenhagen: None? You can count the ones I’ve gotten in 15 months on one hand.

Honest question: Why do you not like fantasy players? They obviously account for some of your readership and isn’t any level of interest in prospects good? What could you possibly have to gain by talking down to fantasy players?

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s not that I dislike fantasy players, just ones who are clearly only in the chat or hitting me up on twitter as a dynasty mercenary. Stuff like “rank these 8 guys” or questions that can easily be answered by finding what I’ve written about a player and in a lot of cases they’ve already been ranked. That’s not ‘readership’, by definition, because it’s clear they’re not reading.

Dunt: Eric, I really enjoyed your piece regarding body type and the ability to stay at SS. I know he was one of the focal points of the article, but in your personal opinion, is Nander De Sedas a better SS or 3B at the next level?

Eric A Longenhagen: Right now, I think he’s a 3B

YKnotDisco?!: Are you on board with Gose as a pitcher? Does his transition have a good foundation? I mean, do you see some good traits and feel for doing so at a high level?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m on board with all conversion guys, especially ones who, if rosters expand, could play another specific role. Gose and James Jones could both be LOOGYs and late-inning pinch runners. I dig that.

Mickey: With Billy McKinney looking to take some reps at 1B during instructs and the AFL, do you think his bat profiles enough there?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not everyday, but positional versatility helps his chances of holding a big league roster spot. And NYY have had health issues there, so it’s all hands on deck at 1B.

RMR: You had a 45 FV on Taylor Trammell.   Has his strong season in Dayton changed that much?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sure, he went from ‘two-sport high school athlete with upside’ to ‘toolsy guy who has produced on-field results’ and, just from a confidence/risk perspective that moves him up.

Chris: How many prospects could Eric Longenhagen name off the top of his head if he was only given a piece of paper and a pencil?

Eric A Longenhagen: We will never learn the answer to this

Guest: What would it take for Joc Peterson to regain some his value? Did we overestimate his upside, or is he just a few tweaks away from unlocking his potential?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think we, generally, hop on young player bandwagons too fast.

Sonny: Does Austin Meadow’s 2017 alter your long term view on him? Can we expect similar production but in ‘injury prone’ lengths of time?

Eric A Longenhagen: It was a discouraging year but I think Meadows has far too much talent to simply give up on.

Monica Bellucci : do you find your job more challenging now than, say, 4-5 years ago, when there weren’t so many armchair scouts? the ease of finding information from which to form an opinion online has made many fans very opinionated about prospects they have never seen. wondering if that makes it more difficult for you.

Bort: Shed Long or Max Schrock: who do you prefer, and why?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think it’s altered the type of discourse I have with readers but I can’t say if it’s made it harder. The growing gap between what teams know about prospects and what I know is what is making this harder.

Eric A Longenhagen: Bort: Shed, more pop and he’s relatively new to the infield so maybe more defensive upside, too.

Dookie Howser, MD: Famed anthropolgist Franz Boas once claimed that the native Eskimo–Aleut languages contained several words for “snow” showing the significance and pervasiveness of the substance in their everyday life. In today’s modern English we have several dozen – perhaps even hundreds – of words for feces. So three part question: (1) What does this say about us as a modern society? (2) What is your favorite synonym for feces?, and (3) Which version should we use to describe the Angels farm system?

Eric A Longenhagen: (1) That the things we think and care about are largely impacted by our lifestyles and those things become more frivolous the more comfortable we get (2) Doodoo. I can’t not laugh at doodoo (3) I actually think it’s gotten much better in the last year

Dooduh: Think Forest Wall ultimately settles in at 2B or in the OF?

Eric A Longenhagen: LF

Differences in terminology: What’s the difference between above average, plus, plus-plus, etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: standard deviations

Eric A Longenhagen: so 50=average
and 60 is one standard deviation away.

Babe Lincoln: Tomas Nido gonna be an interesting guy at all?  Or organizational depth?

Eric A Longenhagen: An interesting glove-first guy

Dunt: Outside the names we all know, who is someone to keep an eye on in the lower levels of the White Sox organization?

Eric A Longenhagen: Luis Curbelo. Not a SS for me but has power. I’m not a big Amado Nunez or Lenyn Sosa guy because I don’t think they’re shortstops either, but they might hit enough to play 2B.

prospect hugs: considering the price of relievers in recent years, getting Robertson and Kahnle (as well as Frazier) for a risky prospect in rutherford seems like a huge steal at this point, no?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Miller and Chapman were elite exceptions at the time, not the rule, and relief health/performance volatility (both of which I think are evident in what those two guys have done since) will probably discourage teams from dealing big prospects for relievers.

Eric A Longenhagen: Of course, if you’re the Cubs and feel like you’re one piece away from a parade, you deal Gleyber.

Eric A Longenhagen: Context is a really important aspect of trade leverage and value, I don’t think it exists in as much of a vacuum as it’s generally discussed.

DB: Do teams adjust their prospect development strategy based on whether the MLB club is competing or rebuilding? Take Walker Buehler for example, how would his year have been different if he were in the White Sox system instead of the Dodgers? What about players in A or AA?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, I think they do. If the Dodgers were bad he’d have been handled differently, probably started all year and been shut down in August.

Eric A Longenhagen: But that’s player to player. The Dodgers didn’t handle Keibert Ruiz differently this year because the big club is good. They discussed Buehler as a potential big league contributor dating back to last fall, this course of action has been in place for a while.

Drew: I know its not fair to ask you to answer for the industry/other analysts, but why does Matt Thaiss receive any attention? We’re talking about a 22 y/o 1B with a sub 400 SLG. Is there supposed power to come or something?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’ve never been on Thaiss but, just to play devil’s advocate, might he start hitting for power in the big leagues simply because of the baseball?

Moltar: Andres Gimenez‘s numbers seem underwhelming, but I know he was quite young for the level. What kind of FV would you put on him now? Is he a top-100 consideration?

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay so here’s a glimpse of how I go about this: Jordy Mercer is a good example of a 45 shortstop. He’s a 1.5 WAR shortstop, has been about that for several consecutive years. He hit .255/.326/.405 this year with about average defense. Do I think, based on scouting, Gimenez can outperform that line? Yes. Xander Bogaerts is nearly a 3 WAR player with a .267/.340/.390 line, something I think Gimenez can attain.

Eric A Longenhagen: So, if I assume the offensive environment will be similar for Gimenez and that his scouting profile will yield a similar line to what X produced this year then that means I think Gimenez is a 55 or 60 (a 2.5 or 3 WAR guy) at maturity (and I do), then I have to back out some of that number for risk. He’s in the low minors but is young for the level, performed well for a teenager in fullseason ball, etc. so I think the risk is lower than it is for many other prospects this age. I’d slap either a 50 or 55 FV on Gimenez right now.

Stove: Anthony Banda touched 99 in relief last night and sat 97. He’s had a rough go of it this year. Does he still strike you as a mid-rotation SP?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yup, I still think he’ss be a league average starter

Drew: Is it normal to have this many talented young guys in the minors or is this an unusual crop. Devers/Vlad Jr/Acna/Bichette/Albies all are gonna be in the pros be 21 or younger it seems.

Eric A Longenhagen: The game is skewing younger in general right now.

Drew: You’ve mentioned you hink Hans Crouse is a reliever mostly likely. Delivery too volatile to hold up as a starter/lack of control/lack of third pitch?

Eric A Longenhagen: Delivery/athleticism for me. His stuff is vicious, though.

Jim: Which of these teenagers has impressed you the most: Akil Baddo, Wander Javier, Brandon Marsh, or Starling Heredia?

Eric A Longenhagen: All? Baddoo surprised me the most.

Babe Lincoln: Why would a too-big SS move to 3B v. 2B?

Eric A Longenhagen: If you have a range deficiency, you probably move to 3B. If the arm is lacking for SS, you probably move to 2B. So if we accept that size detracts from range then a SS prospect who is very big probably moves to 3B. I didn’t find a correlation between size (weight or BMI) and defensive effectiveness at SS in my study but there are a lot of potential problems with the data and a selection bias (because I only looked at shortstop the bigger guys passed a pass/fail at SS at some point that allowed them to stay at SS)

Drew: Broadly speaking, how often do pitchers develop that elusive changeup to make them a viable starter (thinking abuot guys like Nate Pearson or Cease)

Eric A Longenhagen: Less than you think. I don’t think a change is necessary, just a third pitch. And the change is often improved with reps.

Jack: What is the ceiling for Lin (red sox infielder)? Brock holt replacement?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I think you’re right on him. Probably Utility guy.

billsaints: My kid pitches. That comebacker to the head terrifies me. Is there any traction anywhere towards protective head gear at the lower levels. Would they affect mechanics once pitchers got used to them?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nope. I doubt they’d impact mechanics. Guys wear huge chains and do-nothing sleeves all the time and are fine. It’ll take a serious injury to change the culture.

Babe Lincoln: Who improved his FV the most this year?

Eric A Longenhagen: Bo Bichette, I buried him last offseason.

John: is higher spin rate always better for curveballs and sliders?

Eric A Longenhagen: All else being equal? Yeah, probably. But Pitcher Allen might have a better spin rate than Pitcher Jesus, but Jesus’ arm slot makes for a more effective breaking ball. Spin rate in a vacuum doesn’t tell us enough.

Jim: How much does Phil Bickford’s lost season affect his development?

Eric A Longenhagen: Speaking of guys who need a third pitch…

Phil: What specifically accounts for the gap that you referred to between what teams know about prospects and what analysts like yourself know about those same prospects?

Eric A Longenhagen: Trackman data I don’t have access to beyond what I see over the shoulders of interns in press boxes and on backfields

sabrtooth: What percentage of chat/Twitter questions are people playing “gotcha” with you?

Eric A Longenhagen: 2%

John: If Seager can make it work at SS, shouldn’t Tatis be able to manage also?

Eric A Longenhagen: To say Seager is evidence that everyone his size and below can play SS seems incorrect. Seager is kind of a freak, not the norm. Like saying “Randy Johnson figuerd out how to throw enough strikes, why not Glasnow?”

LudeBurger: I’ve rarely seen a 65 for individual tools. Can you think of anyone with any?

Eric A Longenhagen: I avoid 65s because I think it’s an unnecessary hedge between 60 and 70. I just wanna make a call at that point. But teams do use 65 and I don’t fault other writers for using it, granularity isn’t bad.

Jack: You mentioned briefly in your chat (last week I think) that you’re down on Cole Tucker – mind explaining why?

Eric A Longenhagen: I just quickly Control+F’d Tucker in my last three chats and got nothing. Think you’ve got me mistaken with someone else?

Eric A Longenhagen: Are you cheating on me with another prospect writer, Jack?

Anthony: What is the most important and/or difficult thing to evaluate with whether a catching prospect can remain behind the plate? Instincts, lateral quickness, general athleticism? Something else?

Eric A Longenhagen: The framing aspect.

Anthony: Besides Almeida, has anyone been really surprising out of the instructs gates?

Eric A Longenhagen: Among guys who had not been on my radar, Wyatt Strahan was up to 96 with a plus slider yesterday.

Acuna Matata: Can I be a true CF? or can I just play any OF position if need be?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m going to start emphasizing the tilde to avoid the Lion King puns. You can all thank me later.

Bud: Advice on when to visit AFL? First week so you can catch instructional league games? What’s up with fewer night games this year? Baseball is played at night and, you know, it’s hot during the day. A yearly guide to the AFL would be an excellent article!

Eric A Longenhagen: No night games during the World Series, that’s an AFL rule. I’ll do a full on guide to baseball here before I inevitably move a few years from now.

The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Do you ever scout HS and college players, or just minor leaguers?

Eric A Longenhagen: I’m responsible for covering all baseball prospects on Earth.

Eric A Longenhagen: Alas, I must go. Thank you all for coming this week, hope to see you next Tuesday. Look for instructional league notes to be dumped on the site periodically and thanks for your continued support of Fangraphs.