Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat: May, Fin by Eric Longenhagen May 31, 2018 2:30 Eric A Longenhagen: Morning. Here’s our draf tboard: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/introducing-the-2018-mlb-draft-board/ 2:31 Eric A Longenhagen: Full disclosure, got crushed by my intermittent insomnia last night and this chat is going to be terse and full of typos 2:31 Tim: So…. Nick Schnell is apparently a possibility at #4. Is that a crazy reach or a super crazy reach? 2:33 Eric A Longenhagen: Not that it isn’t true, but we haven’t heard that. That wouldn’t be my pick at 4. 2:34 Eric A Longenhagen: In fact, we’ve heard the opposite, that Schnell is falling down other boards due to perceived risk 2:35 Eric A Longenhagen: As far as Schnell is concerned from a talent perspective, there are lots of traits similar to Taylor Trammell a few drafts ago. Has that Trammell/Austin Meadows look at the plate, pull power, runs well, mostly gap-oriented swing. Like the player, just not at 4 given all the risk 2:35 The Candy Man: What type of AZL/short season performance does Alexander Canario need to have to be a Top 100 type of guy? Does the performance even matter? 2:37 Eric A Longenhagen: It’s the first strong indicator of what the prospect’s plat discipline is like so it matters a little. It helped Jesus Sanchez, Juan Soto, etc hit 50 FV status when the reports were great AND they performed. But I don’t have an arbitrary statline for Canario to tick up from a 45 to a 50 2:37 Benjamin: What grades would you give clayton kershaws pitches? 2:37 Eric A Longenhagen: I’d have to see him and, while I’ve tried, I’ve been rebuffed. So I really don’t know. 2:37 Josh: Any names you’re hearing for the Brewers pick at 21? 2:38 Eric A Longenhagen: The teams in the 17-25 range are just kind of hanging out, seeing who falls. Tough to strongly attach names and MIL, specifically, has been tough to gauge this spring. 2:38 Harold : Would Brady Singer be a brutal pick for the White Sox? Reminds me of the Carson Fulmer pick. 2:39 Eric A Longenhagen: To me, the Fulmer pick was much different. 2:39 Eric A Longenhagen: Fulmer was weird, teams thought he was a reliever. Nobody thinks Singer’s a reliever they just aren’t super excited by him. 2:40 Matty: What are we to make of a guy like Jose Suarez? a short and stocky pitcher with average stuff, but tearing through the minors with high K numbers. 2:41 Eric A Longenhagen: Velo and breaking ball quality are way up. He’s legit. UP to 95 now. 2:41 Max Y: Are Kevin Matian, Livan Soto, etc. Rule 5 eligible at the end of this year? Also, where does Drew Rasmussen get drafted (Had TJ in September) or do you see him returning to Oregon State for his 5th year? 2:42 Eric A Longenhagen: No on the July 2 kids, it’s five years from 18 and under and nobody would take either of them anyway because Soto is built like a child and Maitan is still a mess. 2:43 Eric A Longenhagen: On Rasmussen, no idea. He hasn’t thrown in a meaningful way, he’d be someones pick purely on spec sometime late in the draft. 2:44 Eric A Longenhagen: Like, who would you take:Any relief-only college arm with a 55 fb and 55 secondaryDrew Rasmussen 2:44 Eric A Longenhagen: Gonna be a while before we run out of the former and lots of teams thought Rasmussen was basically Pitcher A last year 2:45 Benjamin: Would you rather have a pitcher with 70 FB, 70 CB, 60 SL, 60 Ch, 30 cmd and 40 ctrl or 60 fb 55 cb 50 Ch 45 SL, 50 cmd 60 ctrl 2:45 Eric A Longenhagen: 2 2:45 Tommy N.: How far away is Weathers and Libby in terms of upside and floor 2:45 Eric A Longenhagen: Floors are similar, Libby toasts Weathers on ‘upside’ because of the physical projection. Libby might add 15 pounds and throw three ticks harder, Weathers is maxed out 2:45 GERB: What are your expectaions for Shane Bieber? Think he’s good enough to stick in that 5th spot at some point this year? 2:46 Eric A Longenhagen: Expect him to have remarkable slider command and yes, he can pitch in the bigs all year 2:46 Tom: Is BYRON BUXTON a bust? 2:46 Eric A Longenhagen: No, you’re impatient 2:46 Braves: Any chance Bohm slides to 8 for the Braves? And if not have you heard any rumblings of Atlanta considering Swaggerty? 2:46 Eric A Longenhagen: No, yes. Swag work(s)ed out for them today. 2:46 Eric A Longenhagen: But still think it’s Gorman 2:47 Mark: Has Dennis Santana moved into the 50 FV tire at this point? 2:47 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes 2:47 Anthony: KLaw and Kiley have talked about UVA’s struggles with developing pitchers. You concerned about Vasil? 2:47 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes 2:48 Eric A Longenhagen: Sorry. I know it’s unfair to the other UVA kids, but the list of names who haven’t gotten better there is pretty long now. 2:48 Eric A Longenhagen: Part of the reason everyone thinks Lynch took off is because he put his foot down and did his own thing. 2:48 Benjamin: How can you not be romantic about baseball 2:49 Eric A Longenhagen: When it’s your job. You still love it, but not romantically. 2:49 Eric A Longenhagen: Because it doesn’t love you back 2:49 Slurp: Heard anything about a Josh Naylor swing change? Not sure if his power binge this season is likely to continue moving forward 2:49 Eric A Longenhagen: No swing change. Approach change. 2:49 Tubby Mice: Hey Eric, if a team knew that a draftee would definitely become a top level reliever but never start, what draft pick would they spend? Would they worry too much about missing out on a decent position player/starter or would that return be something any front office would be happy with? 2:52 Eric A Longenhagen: If you knew it was going to be Kimbrel of Chapman and get there quickly, they go top 3. Multi-year dominance has to be guaranteed, I’m not taking Blake Treinen up there. 2:52 Georgie: Kean Wong of the Rays is having a great year so far in Durham and still only 23. He has been playing LF recently after Span was traded. He kind of fell off prospect lists the last few years but what are his chances of being a solid big leaguer? 2:52 Eric A Longenhagen: Might be a 40 2:52 Mel Kiper: Any draft buzz about HS Bryce Bush from Michigan? Heard he put on a show in SD last year at the AS showcase and that he has athleticism and tools to develop. More generally: does the state of Michigan aspect get held against him (and others) because of weather in drafts? 2:53 Eric A Longenhagen: Huge raw power but unclear what position he plays, 3B seemed like a stretch to me in SD. Weather definitely colors looks but the Midwest was loaded this year and he was seen. 2:53 Mertz: Do teams spend different amounts on scouting and instructional employees? If so, is there any way of knowing who spends the most? 2:54 Eric A Longenhagen: Yes, by huge amounts. Only way I can think to do it is to buy BA’s Directory and literally count the size of staffs, but that’s pretty rudimentary. 2:54 Lilith: Are the Phillies moving off of Bohm at all? Who else are they considering? 2:56 Eric A Longenhagen: Still think they’re on Bohm, perhaps Bart if he were there. 2:56 Mike: Any chance the Mets get Madrigal at 6? Are they still looking HS at 48? 2:57 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t think so. Most teams in the 40s are on HSers there, or at least worked hard to line up the HSers in that range, because there are usually many good ones left at that point and, especially in this draft, there should be 2:57 Litmus: Mayo had mentioned the White Sox heavily being on Schnell. How big of a reach would that be at 4? Could he around at 46 as well? 2:58 Eric A Longenhagen: I know huge heat from other teams in the top 10 have seen him but we just assumed it was for their next picks and I still do 2:58 dwest: Will Larnach be around for the Cubs at 24? 2:58 Eric A Longenhagen: Ya know, he actually might be. 2:58 Sean: Which of the following end up in the Padres rotation by the end of May 2019: Luis Perdomo, Quantrill, Logan Allen, Jacob Nix, Chris Paddack, Adrian Morejon 2:58 Eric A Longenhagen: Allen, maybe Q and Paddack a little later? 2:59 Ed: Which teams are in on Heimlich? 3:00 Eric A Longenhagen: Nobody will cop to being on him and so we have suspicions but don’t know. 3:00 ???: From a dynasty fantasy perspective, who are the top 5 draft prospects? 3:02 Eric A Longenhagen: Probably the same? 3:02 Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know ho dynasty leagues alter prospect evaluation, sorry. 3:03 Eric A Longenhagen: I’m in a DIamond Mind league and my board would just be the same as ours, save for some tweaks where Kiley and I disagree about an individual 3:03 Derek: Has Buddy Reed raised his prospect profile with the year he is having, or is he getting lucky along with playing in the Cal League? 3:03 Eric A Longenhagen: Nope, he’s def better 3:03 Mike: Thoughts on Slade Cecconi’s price tag? Seems like he would be an intriguing high ceiling type as long as he’s not demanding too much $$. 3:06 Eric A Longenhagen: I wouldn’t say ‘demanding too much money’ just because the tone is so negative, but yeah he’s an interesting arm that we’d give 700-800k 3:06 kvothe: A couple months ago you were of the opinion that Ohtani should just stick to pitching. Has what he’s done over the first part of the season done anything to change your mind on that? 3:08 Eric A Longenhagen: I’ll say he’s hit better than I expected but I don’t think you should just get to retract opinions like that, post facto. 3:08 Cheez: Any new top of the draft buzz for us? I hunger. 3:10 Eric A Longenhagen: Some stuff swirling that I’m skeptical of. Still think Mize, Bart, Bohm, then Singer and Madrigal in some order, then either Kelenic or India, then either Libyy or Weathers, then Gorman 3:10 ChatzMcGree: Do you agree with Kiley about the things being said about Gorman being similar to what was being said about Austin Riley, and that Gorman might actually end up a little better version of Riley? Basically that assessment jibe, more or less, with your opinion on him 3:12 Eric A Longenhagen: The reasons for the swing and miss stuff are different. With Riley it’s swing length caused by an arm bar, as far as I’m concerned, and with Gorman it’s breaking ball recog and maybe a loopy hand path that needs fixing. But otherwise, yeah. lotta similar concerns 3:12 Bryce: Austin Slater. What does he have to do? 3:13 Eric A Longenhagen: Ground ball rate is way down so maybe he’s finally made a swing change that works 3:13 Isiah Kiner-Falefa: Where do you think Trevor Larnach goes? 3:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Looks more like late teens, early 20s now 3:14 Georgie: After a few months into season, the Rays Souza trade is looking a lot better than initially thought. Banda has made improvements from poor season and solak and poche have started strong. It’s early to say a team won a trade this early but am I crazy to believe that at this point? 3:14 Eric A Longenhagen: Way too early. If ARI gets healthy and reaches the WS with a hot Souza, they’d feel pretty good about the deal. 3:14 ABC: Hearing any targets for the White Sox with their 2nd pick? Buzz buzz buzz. 3:15 Eric A Longenhagen: I mean, Schnell? 3:15 Eric A Longenhagen: I just think they’re on college guys all the way 3:15 Kyle: Can JJ SCHWARZ stick at C? Where will he be drafted? 3:15 Eric A Longenhagen: No, he’s someone’s senior sign 3:15 Fred: Heliot Ramos would be the right age for this class. Do you think he’d be in the 1.1 conversation this year if he’d been a year later in school? 3:16 Eric A Longenhagen: No, we have a 50 FV on Ramos and you can see exactly what tier we think he fits in in this class 3:16 Jake: Last year you guys pegged Amed Rosario as a 65 FV. Do you still see him in 60 range long-term or has he taken a step back to more of a 50-55? 3:17 Eric A Longenhagen: It was just me who ranked Rosario up that high and I still think he has that kind of talent. 3:17 Ryan Rowland-Smith: Aye mate, any chance India or Swaggerty are available for the Mariners? 3:18 Eric A Longenhagen: Doubt it. Think Swag’s floor is 12 and India is long gone 3:18 Tom: Hi Eric, thanks for the chat. Can you provide any insight into the conversations around “floating” a player to a later pick? How does the team communicate that to the player, and how does that player communicate that to other teams? 3:22 Eric A Longenhagen: TEAM saves some money with their first pick. Let’s say they’ve drafted a kid, talked to his agent and have a deal for $1 mil under slot at their first pick. Now they can reallocate that $1mil to their second pick. SO let’s say that next pick’s slot value was $2 mil. No they can offer $3 mil and maybe none of the teams picking in the interim can pay that much or prepared to do so, mathematically. You call the agent of the kid you want, tell them you have $3 mil waiting for their kid at your next pick. The agent tells other teams ‘I need 4 mil’, scares them off, falls to your next pick. You’ve successfully floated someone 3:23 Eric A Longenhagen: But, some team might just take the kid and dare him to turn down a big number 3:23 Andrew: What are Matt Manning and Ian Anderson’s floor & upside, and which do one do you see them reaching? 3:24 Eric A Longenhagen: Each’s floor is they blow out and don’t reach the Majors. Ceilings are 3 WAR guys. 3:24 Jake: Yordan Alvarez seems to be progressing well as a prospect. Do you think he has a chance to stay in LF for more than a year or two (a la Hoskins) or is he a 1B in the majors? 3:24 Eric A Longenhagen: I think he’s a better athlete than Hoskins 3:25 Trixie: Why are you so low on Padres prospect Austin Allen? I understand his catching skills are suspect, but his hit and power tools seem way above average. 3:26 Eric A Longenhagen: We don’t think he catches and are surprised Padres fans aren’t skeptical of his AA performance given his age. He’s got 4A traits that scare us and a lot of scouts, but some really like him. Just not us. 3:27 Eric A Longenhagen: Okay everyone, I’m outta here. Mock tomorrow, more stuff will be added to the board, etc. 3:27 Eric A Longenhagen: Have a good wekk.