Eric Longenhagen Prospects Chat vs Monster Zero

Eric A Longenhagen: Morning, everyone.

Eric A Longenhagen: So, there are A LOT of questions in the queue about other peoples’ lists. I won’t be answering any of those.

Eric A Longenhagen: I will say this…

Eric A Longenhagen: The gap between Prospect # 20 on a list and prospect #80 on someone else’s looks a lot bigger than it actually is.

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, I’m looking at my Top 100 right now and the gap between #2 on the list and #21 is literally a half grade

Eric A Longenhagen: And those tiers get even bigger the further down you go.

Eric A Longenhagen: So, for me, prospect #22 and prospect #75 will probably have the exact same grade and a half grade change makes a huge difference in terms of the list but not really much of one in terms of actual baseball value.

Eric A Longenhagen: So, keep that in mind as you grill Klaw, Callis, etc.

Eric A Longenhagen: Okay, let’s talk about prospect things…

Paul: Is there a projected date to get all these prospect writeups finished? I know you aren’t on a schedule for specific teams, but are they going to get done by the start of the season? Start of spring training?

Eric A Longenhagen: They’ll be done before the season starts if it kills me. I’m working as hard and fast as I can, I promise. Setting up the infrastructure to do the lists while I simultaneously work on them has been challenging from a time perspective and it’ll be much easier next year, but I’m grinding away right now.

Cardinals Guy: Kilichowski not worth a mention? Seems the kind of command college lefty the Cards have some success in developing.

Eric A Longenhagen: I just wasn’t on in in the AFL.

Sandy Ravage: Given the choice between Kyle Lewis and Corey Ray, who would you prefer from an offensive stand point?

Eric A Longenhagen: Better chance Lewis gets to the power for me.

Nick: Do you think Mickey Moniak could tweak his swing enough to remain a 60 hitter with 55 power? Related, is a 60 defender in CF with a 70 bat and 45 power more valuable than a 60 CF with a 60 bat and 55 power?

Eric A Longenhagen: Good question. It’s possible I guess but I have a future 7 on the bat right now and wouldn’t risk that to try to coax more power from him. All else equal the guy with more power is probably more valuable.

Biggy: How would you compare Almora to Soler as a prospect at similar points of their career?

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s tough, they’re totally different players.

Dave: Your prospect reports are great. I’m making good use of them in setting player prices for the draft in a fantasy league of which I’m commissioner. However, our draft will occur before you finish. Can you tell us the next four to six teams on which you’ll report, so I can figure out what prices I must set without the use of your reports? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: NL East, AL East, AL West

Cal : Questions about draft strategy here. Do you think an organizations current competitive position influences their draft choices? Take the Yankees. They see themselves as probably a year or 2 away from competing for a title. Would this cause them to covet an almost ready college bat/arm rather than the long-term development of a high school guy? Even if that high school guy is the better talent? Or do you think orgs now just always take the best available talent (disregarding signability issues)?

Eric A Longenhagen: Your qualifier is correct, independent of signability, it’s always best player available.

Eric A Longenhagen: If the Yankees need help at the big league level they’re going and getting it via free agency or trade, not through the draft.

Dan : Once this current crop gets to the bigs, who is the next big Yankee prospect?

Eric A Longenhagen: Be patient with those big J2 kids from a few years back. Dermis Garcia is a physical beast.

Tommy: There’s a lot of helium on Fernando Tatis Jr right now what are your thoughts on him?

Eric A Longenhagen: As there should be. I wrote him up back at the start of the prospect series and shoved him: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/prospect-reports-san-diego-padres/

Philip: Any player you have talked to scouts about that you are surprised how high the scouts are on said player

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, pretty frequently. The one that caught me off guard was Ryan Castellani. Spoke with a bunch of scouts who saw him as a #4/5 and then one guy told me he’s a future #3. Pretty large difference there.

Eric A Longenhagen: Joe Musgrove has always been like that, too.

Curtis: Brock Stewart worth a stash?

Eric A Longenhagen: If your league is deep enough that rostering a #4/5 is kosher, then yes.

The Average Sports Fan: Do you prefer Carson Kelly or Jorge Alfaro?

Eric A Longenhagen: Alfaro

Kevin: Bo Bichette, good heavens what a swing! Think he has a big league future?

Eric A Longenhagen: This is what I saw from Bo in high school so….

Eric A Longenhagen:

Eric A Longenhagen: While I was at ESPN this was the player Keith and I probably disagreed on more intensely than any other.

Dylan: What are your thoughts on Grant Holmes and AJ Puk? Do you think either can put it all together and become a useful player?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like both but they each have their warts. Holmes is at least a really good reliever though, Puk’s back issues more serious than Holmes’ issues with command in my opinion.

Eric A Longenhagen: Holmes doesn’t have Puk’s slider, though…

Curtis: if a starter has only one 70 pitch, is it best if it’s a fastball?

Eric A Longenhagen: Changeup

Beth: Does Albert Abreu have the potential to be a number 1? 2?

Eric A Longenhagen: Probably not that high, but I really like him and think he could be a #3.

Don: Better chance to hit long term, Blake Rutherford or Clint Frazier?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rutherford

Eric A Longenhagen: Rutherford has done nothing but hit everywhere, at every event, since he was a soph in high school.

Eric A Longenhagen: And I saw him take Hunter Greene deep in person last year after he clearly wasn’t prepared for the first AB where Greene took his lunch money on three straight pitches. He got pissed, adjusted, went deep. I like Rutherford.

Curtis: With the HR surge last year, are there any modifications as to power grades for players? or are there just more 50s-70s?

Eric A Longenhagen: Just as it is with the scale for running speed, the scale has more communicative value than it does actual analytical value and I think that’s okay.

Eric A Longenhagen: If the power spike holds it might adjust the way I put FV on guys but the tool grades won’t really change.

Dr. Frank Jobe: Have you seen Amed Rosario play in person? If so, does he seem as good as everyone says he is?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have, he is.

Nick: Is there any MLB player with 80 game power? Stanton? Chris Davis? Chris Carter? Trumbo?

Eric A Longenhagen: 80 is 40+ home runs and I’d like to see it for several years in a row . Nobody’s has done that unless I’m mistaken. I’m fine with 80 on Stanton’s raw because he hasn’t gotten there just due to injury and some of those have been totally random.

Our Time is Now: Which pitcher selected in this past years draft do you think will have the best career when its all said and done?

Eric A Longenhagen: Pint

Bryan: Regarding the Cardinals hacking punishment, the general consensus is that they got off light. What would have been an appropriate punishment? There is no precedent that I can think of for something like this.

Eric A Longenhagen: It feels light because what went on was so repulsive but you’re right, there’s no precedent so it’s hard to have context for evaluating. If anything, the punishment at least benefits the Astros in a real way, especially given how creative they’ve been with their draft pool in the past. They get to have some fun in June again.

Nick: With a top 100 prospects list, can we assume every member is projected to be at least an average regular? If so, how far past the 100 cut off do we expect average regulars?

Eric A Longenhagen: For me, the top 100 is going to be all 50 FV and up with probably 40 or 50 of them falling in the 100-150 range or so.

Joe in NC: Sleeper prospects for the Cubs from last summer’s draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Mekkes I guess

Eric A Longenhagen: Heard Clark has made some changes that might allow him to keep starting

weber: Do you believe the recent penalties that were handed down to the Cardinals make them more likely to spend what is necessary for an international player such as Luis Robert from Cuba? Especially seeing as the “premier” talent from the international market has most likely already signed.

Eric A Longenhagen: Ah ha, this is a good question and I do think you’re on to something.

mcf1417: Maitan seems to be much higher on national lists than I would have expected. Any reports from Instructs (regarding his defense, perhaps?) that might have led to this?

Eric A Longenhagen: Nothing beyond what I was already hearing before he signed. He’s a really good prospect.

Jonathan: What kind of pitching prospect is more valuable – a #4/5 SP kind of guy, or a flame throwing RP?

Eric A Longenhagen: A #4/5 is worth around 1.5 WAR, annually. Only 22 relievers were worth 1.5 or more WAR in 2016.

Eric A Longenhagen: Of course, having a dominant closer means more to a 92 win team than a 82 win one.

Eric A Longenhagen: But in general, the starter is more valuable.

Mark: Hey Eric, how would you rank this year’s J2 class compared to last year’s and 2015’s?

Eric A Longenhagen: Beneath the other two.

gaedel: Hey Eric, I really enjoy your prospect work – is there an easy, central place to find all your team lists? Thanks.

Eric A Longenhagen: Just go to one list and there are links at the top to the others. I’ll go back and update the first 15 lists with the Cards link today.

Hank: Who is the top prospect in 2018? 2019? 2020?

Eric A Longenhagen: Rosario, Rodgers, Longenhagen

The Cincinnati Kid: I just read a bit that I wanted to get your feedback on: 2018 Alen Hanson could be 2016 Trea Turner. Is that ridiculous?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think so, yes.

Eric A Longenhagen: Purely from a scouting standpoint, yes, that’s ridiculous.

SC: What can a prospect like Seijas do to shed the future reliever label? Is it all tied up with the perceived effort in his delivery? Any examples of a guy with a delivery that screamed reliever profile who made it in the bigs as a starter without making those adjustments?

Eric A Longenhagen: Seijas’ delivery isn’t like Hader’s or Scherzer or someone who has some funk. It’s more like Josh Collementer’s if I may. And that’s a relief delivery for me all the way.

Justino: What does Magnerius Sierra’s ceiling look like?

Eric A Longenhagen: Michael Bourn

Debby : Best bet to make the majors before their 21st birthday?

Eric A Longenhagen: Lil’ Vlad

Dan: The Astros seem like a pretty forward thinking scouting group. Is the move from Lancaster to NC at all to get their guys out of the Cal league for pitcher development or hitter evaluation purposes? A lot of the reports from pitchers in those environs indicate they change their approach significantly in known band boxes. Could it have motivated the cross country move?

Eric A Longenhagen: 100% yes

Timmy: The next player not named Mike Trout to lead the league in WAR is ______

Eric A Longenhagen: Nolan Arenado

Danny: How long do you think Trout can realistically keep up this level of production? Do you anticipate any dip at all coming between 25 and 30?

Eric A Longenhagen: Father time is undefeated so, yes, his slow march toward decline is already occurring. He isn’t an 80 runner anymore, more of a 60/65. I think a move to LF is the first tangible sign of decline you’ll see. When will that come? I don’t know.

Denny : Best AA team to go visit this season? The Thunder look like they will be stacked

Eric A Longenhagen: Carolina and Lake Elsinore, too.

The Cincinnati Kid: Is Greg Bird a Top 15 1B after this season? I know he looked rusty at AFL

Eric A Longenhagen: He’s an avg everyday 1B/DH for me at peak so probably the under this year.

Andrew: Have players ever been rude to you after giving them a low ranking?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, I steer clear from players in general and they’re usually working too hard to bother caring what anyone writes about them.

Eric A Longenhagen: Family, teams, agents? Yes.

Connie : Dermis Garcia, Wilkerman Garcia or Estevan Florial? Why?

Eric A Longenhagen: Florial because we’re already seeing it where as the Garcia are still pure projection.

PieTraynee: Which relatively unheralded Pirates prospect do you feel has a good chance of shooting up prospect lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: Is Taylor Hearn unheralded?

Drew: What are your thoughts on DJ peters? His stats in pro ball jump off the chart but he’s obviously so far away. Can he be a prospect that rises quickly on a few top 100 lists?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like the tools a lot, will need to perform at an age-appropriate level to garner that kind of consideration.

00: There are some pitchers that have 70+ fastball grades. Is there a reason that pitchers don’t have those for offspeed or breaking pitches? I’ve seen future values like Rodon’s slider but not current.

Eric A Longenhagen: They do, Rodon had a 7 slider in college.

Marty: Evaluators seem to like Clint Frazier quite a bit more than Tyler O’neill. When I compare the two I see very similar profiles, would you agree? I also find O’neill to be better from a numbers stand point, while also being 1 year younger? What am I missing? Why the Frazier hype and not O’neill?

Eric A Longenhagen: O’Neill’s swing and miss issues were on full display in the AFL and it concerned a lot of people. The quality of his contact was mixed. When he runs into one, it goes, because he’s so strong. But Frazier is a much surer bet to hit and hit for power.

Eli: Is Moncada still the #1 dynasty prospect? Are you concerned about his contact abilities?

Eric A Longenhagen: He is for me and sure, you’re allowed to concerned about his strikeouts and lack of current position.

Eric A Longenhagen: More stat-centric people seem to be concerned about Moncada but then the projection systems love him so…figure that one out.

Eric A Longenhagen: Don’t be scared away by how he looked in the big leagues, though. He had 45 games above A-ball before being thrown into the fire, and at a new position no less.

Luis : Some folks seem high on Luis Alexander Basabe and others think it’s tools without skill. What say you sir?

Eric A Longenhagen: Sounds like it’s the latter.

jon: Does Gleyber Torres stick at short stop? How does he compare with the class of short stops (Lindor/Correa/Russell/etc) before him?

Eric A Longenhagen: I like Gleyber but he doesn’t hold a candle to those guys.

Matt: JP Crawford – For so long he was looked at as glove first, but 2015 gave him a good offensive profile. Did 2016 hurt that?

Eric A Longenhagen: Only for those who keep forgetting about Darin Ruf and Matt Rizzotti and what Reading does for hitters.

Greg: How many Braves do you think will make your top-100?

Eric A Longenhagen: 8

Eric A Longenhagen: In no particular order…Maitan, Acuna, Newcomb, Fried, Allard, Anderson, Swanson, Albies, Gohara

Eric A Longenhagen: That’s 9

Rafa: benintendi or meadows, which one do you prefer?

Eric A Longenhagen: Benintendi but I have the same FV on both. Benintendi has been healthier.

Carl : Did you feel a warm breeze the moment Mike Trout was born?

Eric A Longenhagen: I don’t know, I was 3.

GSon: International scouting information is pretty scarce this time of year.. any sites/recs you’d make to enlighten the ravenous prospect hungry folks among us?

Eric A Longenhagen: Been different this year for me with the lists and for everyone else with the CBA situation.

Wes: Can Delvin Perez be Amed Rosario in a couple years?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yes

Matt: Why is the scouting scale on 20-80? It’s still centered at 50, but it removes some degrees of freedom from a more “natural” 0-100 scale.

Eric A Longenhagen: It’s scientific. 50 is average, each 10 away is a standard deviation from the mean.

John: Kopech is shooting up lists. How does he compare to guys like Reyes, Glasnow, Giolito?

Eric A Longenhagen: I have a 65 on Reyes, a 60 on Giolito and 55s on Glasnow and Kopech.

Mick D: Harrison Bader’s drop a reflection of a SSS in Triple-A? AFL seemed to show speed and power. On the other hand, did Stl. signing Fowler indicate lower expectations for Bader as a CF?

Eric A Longenhagen: Scouts see a fourth OF in Bader. His swing and miss issues are troubling to everyone I spoke with. Needs to adjust his lower half to control the depth of his barrel, no other way of moving the bat around the zone. It’s weird.

Jonathan: Would any U.S. amateurs get a 60 FV from you at this point?

Eric A Longenhagen: Yeah, Kendall, Faedo and Greene and you can make a case for Wright. Can’t wait to see the Vandy guys in a few weeks.

Marty: Which Cubs pitcher has the best chance at becoming a top 50 prospect next year? De La Cruz, Albertos, or Cease?

Eric A Longenhagen: Healthy de la Cruz.

Will in NJ: Quantrill or Puk in terms of best college SP from 2016 draft?

Eric A Longenhagen: Quantrill

Erik: Dylan Cozens and Roman Quinn both have quite a lot of risk (for very different reasons) for being rather advanced prospects. They could also be competing for a starting spot next season. Who do you think wins that battle?

Eric A Longenhagen: I think Q has already earned a chance to start once Kendrick and Saunders get hurt/moved.

Matt: Considering the amount of superstition in baseball, does the fact that Rutherford’s Twitter handle is BlakeRuth knock him down at all?

Eric A Longenhagen: No, confidence > superstition

Adam: If you had to guess, which position player prospect will never sniff your Top 100 but still go on to have a decent career?

Eric A Longenhagen: Great question

Eric A Longenhagen: Ryan O’Hearn

Mark: Thoughts on Nick Williams – what happened?

Eric A Longenhagen: He had a 4 week span in 2015 when he stopped swinging and a bunch of people (incorrectly) thought his plate discipline issues were solved.

jon: Bonds: 80 hit, 80 raw, 80 game?

Eric A Longenhagen: Hell yes

JJ: Where do you think Matt Thaiss is playing in the long run? Seems to be blocked at 1B, though doesn’t seem to be athletic enough to play other positions.

Eric A Longenhagen: Correct

James: Should a team like Atlanta, who arguably has the best farm in baseball, should they take the best player on the board regardless of price? Or should they attempt to go underslot again like they did last time, landing Anderson, Wentz, and Muller.

Eric A Longenhagen: Going to be tough for Atlanta to do as well as they did last year with SD, CIN, MIN and TB all picking in front of their second selection.

Ian: Why doesn’t every kid learn a changeup early on?

Eric A Longenhagen: Because if you’re a high school prospect colleges or MLB teams are interested in you probably throw pretty hard and if you’re 88-91, a 79 mph changeup is only doing opposing hitters a huge favor.

Arnie: Eric, what’s the deal with Bradley Zimmer. Do you think he can cut the K’s as the speed and defense are fine.

Eric A Longenhagen: I think the K’s will always be there but the D in center and the power will carry him anyway.

David: A few weeks ago when I asked you about Gohara, you said you saw future RP due to concerns about repeatability of the motion, has something changed since the trade? or do you just see him as a good enough RP that he’s still top 100?

Eric A Longenhagen: I did?

Eric A Longenhagen: You might have to show me that.

Dude: Sixto Sanchez or Albertos? It looks close from what I read.

Eric A Longenhagen: Agreed, it’s close. Albertos by a hair right now but I’m working the Phillies list right now and it’s close enough that it could change. Also close enough that it doesn’t really matter.

Eric A Longenhagen: That’ll do it for this week.

Eric A Longenhagen: Thank you for coming.