Examining the Young Zack Wheeler Replacements

News broke on Monday that Zack Wheeler had a tear in his UCL, and would need to undergo Tommy John Surgery. This sucks. It sucks every time we lose an exciting, young arm to injury, and this case is no different. But one man’s misfortune is another man’s opportunity. While unfortunate for both Wheeler and the Mets, Wheeler’s injury helps clear up the log jam in the Mets rotation. It opens the door for a slew of youngsters, who may have otherwise spent a good chunk of the year in Triple-A or the bullpen.

Even after losing Wheeler, the Mets are still able to field a full rotation without turning to any unproven rookies. Dillon Gee will presumably join Matt Harvey, Bartolo Colon, Jon Niese and Jacob deGrom in New York’s rotation. Still, even if the Mets rotation is set for now, we all know that teams almost always need more than five starting pitchers to get through a season. Furthermore, the Mets number one and number two starters are coming off of Tommy John Surgery and old as dirt, respectively. It’s only a matter of time before they will need to dip into their farm system, and luckily for them, they have no shortage of replacements to choose from.

Rafael Montero

Let’s start with Montero, who threw 44 big league innings in 2014. Kiley McDaniel ranked Montero as the Mets 8th best prospect, and placed him in the honorable mentions section of his top 200 list. Montero’s first taste of big league action was pretty forgettable, but KATOH really liked what he did in the minors last year. Most notably, he struck out an impressive 24% of opposing batters. This, along with his non-terrible 10% walk rate earned him a projection of 5.3 WAR through age-28: The 11th highest among pitchers with at least 200 batters faced last year.

Montero didn’t start receiving prospect love until the last year or so, but his numbers — particularly his strikeout totals — speak for themselves. Now that he’s proven himself in over a year’s worth of starts in Triple-A, he’s a good bet to succeed in the big leagues as well. Montero will play a role with the 2015 Mets, but it remains to be seen if it will be as a starter or a reliever. Both Kiley’s 50 FV grade and KATOH’s forecast agree that he could be a starter long-term, but the Mets embarrassment of starting pitching riches might push him to the bullpen for now.
Noah Syndergaard

For silly service time reasons, Syndergaard is highly unlikely to break camp with the Mets this year, but he’ll almost certainly join the team by mid-season, if not sooner. Although he’s just 22, we’ve been hearing about Syndergaard for years now — He’s appeared on each of the last four FanGraphs top 100 lists. This year, Kiley deemed Syndergaard the best prospect in the Mets organization and the 19th best in baseball.

Despite his unsightly 4.60 ERA from last year, KATOH adores Syndergaard. It projects him for 11.5 WAR through age-28, which puts him 2nd highest among pitchers with at least 200 batters faced, trailing only Julio Urias. As with Montero, Syndergaard’s high strikeout totals drive his projection. His 25% K% was the second highest among qualified pitchers in the PCL last year. Coming from a 21-year-old who also kept his walks down, that’s very encouraging.

Don’t read too much into his mediocre performance in the PCL last year. A high BABIP and low strand rate inflated his overall numbers, but the stats that mean the most suggest he’s destined for very good things. At this point, there’s little reason to think Syndergaard won’t develop into an excellent starting pitcher. Scouts unanimously love his stuff, and his strikeout numbers more than back them up.
Steven Matz

After losing a few years of development time to Tommy John Surgery, Matz has really come into his own the last couple of years. As a result, Kiley gave Matz a 55 FV this winter, making him Mets second best pitching prospect behind Syndergaard. Kiley ranked him 65th overall in his top 200 list.

Although Matz pitched to a 2.29 ERA and 2.61 FIP last season, KATOH doesn’t think much of him. It projects him for just 2.2 WAR through age-28, and gives him just a 61% chance of even reaching the majors. KATOH’s disdain for Matz has everything to do with his age. As dominant as Matz was between High-A and Double-A last season, he was also 23 years old. It’s generally not a good sign if a prospect doesn’t make it out of A-Ball until his age 23 season.

However, you could certainly argue that this projection is selling Matz short. KATOH doesn’t know that Matz got a late start to his pro career after sitting out two full seasons (2010 and 2011) due to injury. If you set Matz’s age to 21 instead of 23, his projection jumps up to 4.5 WAR through age-28. This new forecast would put him 19th among pitchers with at least 200 batters faced last year.

While it’s certainly fair to criticize Matz’s KATOH projection, the forecast does shed light on a disconcerting fact: Matz about to turn 24 and still hasn’t done much to prove he’s able to get hitters out in the high minors. It’s hard to argue with his stuff and his performance to date, but he still has a bit left to prove in the minor leagues. If Matz acquits himself well in Tripe-A this year, he’ll likely crack the Mets rotation by season’s end.
Matthew Bowman

Kiley ranked Bowman 18th in his ranking of Mets prospects, and gave him a FV of 40 — the equivalent of a spot-starter or middle reliever. Clearly, Bowman doesn’t have nearly the upside of the guys listed above, but KATOH still thinks there’s something there. It pegs him for 3.1 WAR through age-28, which was good for #158 on KATOH’s top 200 list. After tearing up A-Ball in 2012 and 2013, the 23-year-old turned in a solid 3.47 FIP between Double-A and Triple-A last year. His biggest assets were his 22% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate.

While respectable, Bowman’s performance from last year wasn’t anything to write home about. However, there’s reason to think he may have more upside than your average 23-year-old. Bowman was primarily a shortstop in his days at Princeton, and didn’t start pitching full-time until the Mets drafted him in 2012. He might still have a thing or to to learn about pitching.

Bowman will probably log some big league innings this summer, but given the myriad of quality rotation options listed above, there’s a good chance he’ll be limited to bullpen work. Bowman’s path to the majors may be somewhat obstructed right now, but his minor league performance suggests he has a big league career ahead of him, even if it’s only as a reliever.

…

There are no sure things when it comes to pitching prospects, but the risk is much less severe for pitchers who are close to the majors. Luckily for the Mets, many of their most promising young arms are less than a year away from being ready for the show. Even with Wheeler out of the picture, it’s still not clear that there will be enough innings to go around for all of these guys in 2015. Nonetheless, each has a minor league track record that suggests he’s capable of helping the Mets win games, be it this year or sometime down the road.