FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 10/10/17

4:04	Paul Swydan: Will the Nationals-Cubs game be over by the time the chat starts? Yes, these games have moved fast (0.7% \| 1 vote) No, it’s going to be raining, stupid (93.9% \| 125 votes) Maybe! (5.2% \| 7 votes) Total Votes: 133

4:05	Paul Swydan: Will the Nationals be eliminated tonight? Yes (10.1% \| 13 votes) No (89.8% \| 115 votes) Total Votes: 128

4:07

Paul Swydan:

What do you think would be the most entertaining World Series?

Houston vs. Los Angeles (25.4% | 52 votes)

Houston vs. Chicago (2.4% | 5 votes)

Houston vs. Washington (2.9% | 6 votes)

Cleveland vs. Los Angeles (19.6% | 40 votes)

Cleveland vs. Chicago (9.3% | 19 votes)

Cleveland vs. Washington (5.8% | 12 votes)

New York vs. Los Angeles (21.5% | 44 votes)

New York vs. Chicago (7.8% | 16 votes)

New York vs. Washington (2.9% | 6 votes)

I can’t decide! (1.9% | 4 votes)

Total Votes: 204

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02	Chaps: 4th option to the 1st question: no, this is going to be the game that ends with a final score of 15-14 where each team has 30+ hits and takes 5+ hours to play

9:02	Paul Swydan: It might be! But tomorrow. Stupid rian.

9:02	Table: I think best world series would be Cleveland vs LA. First Cleveland loses the world series, then Lebron leaves for the Lakers. One two knockout.

9:03	Paul Swydan: Wow. Table! Wow. That’s cold.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: I like it

9:03	Paul Swydan: You all are pretty clear on the opinion that LA would be the most entertaining NL team, and that the AL is more up for grabs. I happen to agree.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry for leaving everyone alone with Paul. I was slightly delayed

9:05	Paul Swydan: FWIW, I’ll side with Cleveland, because I’d like to see Terry Francona get another ring. But Houston or NY would also be fine.

9:05	Dingo Dan Dan: I have so much pain in terms of trying to make a decision on long-term keeper league. Each team keeps 25 guys and we have a 25 round draft each year. Knowing that format (plus 5×5) would you deal Kershaw for Buster Posey, Dee Gordon, Kevin Gausman and #6 next year?

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not enough youth and/or talent coming back.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I guess it depends on who you think you could get with the #6 pick. Unless you mean a 6th round pick, which, in that case, no.

9:06	Hannah Hochevar: C’mon Wrigley: just build a dome already!

9:06	Paul Swydan: Stupid Wrigley.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Nah, rain happens

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: It gave us some great Dusty quotes this evening

9:08	Paul Swydan: It did indeed!

9:08

Oddball Herrera: Dodgers vs. Astros would be outright fun. A series with Correa, Darvish, Kershaw, Verlander, Bellinger, Altuve, Springer, Puig and General Kael from Willow..er..I mean Justin Turner? Count me in. Obviously a question of taste, but Chicago vs NYY I may not actually go out of my way to watch.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d watch any of them. A rematch would awesome, especially a 7-game series.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I understand the sentiment. The team I least want to see in the Series is the Cubs, I know that much. The less Joe Maddon I have to watch, the better.

9:09	Guest: Stras has to start tomorrow…right?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I mean, if he’s sick, he’s sick, right?

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: He could have eaten the crabs at the Bellagio.

9:10	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Dangit, where’s the Netflix talk? I need someone with whom I can talk about Big Mouth and its sincere, disgusting look at how boys and girls grow up. There’s not even baseball today!

9:11	Paul Swydan: I saw the ad for that show, and was not impressed, to put it mildly.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: It does seem like an extended SNL skit

9:11	$11 Worth of Taco Bell: During the remainder of the postseason, how many times will the pitcher who started the game pitch into the 7th inning?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I’ll say 12% of the time.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Not many. Two or three

9:13	CecilFielder: As a Cubs fan can I be annoyed that TBS didn’t (allegedly) allow this game to start at 1PM?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but money talks.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I mean, I guess you can, but if they played at 1 pm, there’d be about a million more people bitching about how they changed the start time and how it was too early to play a game.

9:14	Nick: Game got postponed. Well, this is awkward.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Is it though? No we’re FREEEEEEEEEEE, we can talk about whatever we want!

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep, stuck here every Tuesday night, games or not

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Dave and his shockey monkeys

9:15	Beetle Jones: In a H2H 12 team league that uses Assists and OBP. not BA, which 3 to keep (indefinitely) at no cost: Stanton, Corey Seager, Kluber, Rhys Hoskins?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Well if assists are a category, I would assume that Seager is by far the most valuable of that group.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Sadly, you have to drop Kluber. Maybe bundle 2 for trade

9:18	Paul Swydan: I’d try to sell high on Stanton. He won’t do that again next year.

9:18	bob: I know I’m way too early on this, but in a 12-team points league, 6 keepers, who would you keep as your 6th keeper: James Paxton (proclivity for injuries but very talented) or Whit Merrifield (qualifies at 2b and OF, but this could have been a career year)?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Paxton

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paxton

9:18	Tommy: Why is there no baseball?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Because we needed a night off. And so we can have a dry run for the winter.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: God hates us

9:19	Big Joey: Statement, not question: All these games on FS1 are pissing me off. Why can’t they just be on FOX, TBS or ESPN? I’ve missed so much 🙁

9:20	Paul Swydan: I feel your pain. If it helps, this is the death rattle for cable networks. They know that hiding the games on less popular networks is the ONLY way to get you subscribe to the channel.

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t you have a friend or family member with cable?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: You can log in via the internet.

9:20	Paul Swydan: That’s true. Tap your network, if you can.

9:20	Big Joey: Would you rather keep Conforto or Miggy in a league that counts OBP and SLG on top of the normal 5 offensive categories?

9:21	Paul Swydan: Conforto, but I wouldn’t feel super confident about keeping either of them for 2018 only. If you’re talking 2019 and beyond, certainly Conforto then.

9:22	Big Joey: I know it’s way too early but I see Judge being ranked 20-25 ADP next year, that’s insanely low, what are people thinking?

9:22	Paul Swydan: https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2018-too-early-mock-drafts-adp/

9:22	Paul Swydan: I thought it was too low too.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Whoa, I think my second monitor just bit the dust

9:23	Paul Swydan: That was actually my comment in the Best of post this past week.

9:23	Paul Swydan: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-best-of-fangraphs-october-2-6/

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Got some smoke smell going on

9:24	Big Joey: Health pending, should Severino be a top 10 SP the next 3-5 seasons?

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: I would never guess a pitcher out 3 seasons, yet alone 5. But yes, he should be a good bet.

9:25	Paul Swydan: I do really like Severino. I think there’s a few guys in the top 10 this year I wouldn’t say yes to that question to, but him I will.

9:25	Long Live Jeff Frye: I would have preferred a simple “No, it’s going to be raining” option. I don’t consider you stupid. Wrong, sometimes, but not stupid.

9:26	Paul Swydan: Fair enough! But I am pretty stupid.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Yep

9:26	druidiful: You shouldn’t have made those polls so early!

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea Paul

9:27	Paul Swydan: Sorry, baseball practice was at 4:30 and then swimming was at 6:30, and we had to fit dinner in in between. The polls either got made early or they weren’t getting made. 🙂

9:28	Tommy: Could LeBron leave for the dodgers?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: It depends on how much they are willing to pay him

9:28	Paul Swydan: What position do we think LeBron would play? First base? Third base?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: No hard salary cap in baseball

9:28	Long Live Jeff Frye: I guess I have four related questions: do you think Farrell will be fired? Do you think Farrell should be fired? Do you trust Dombrowski, hirer of Ausmus, to hire a manager? Would Brock Holt be enough to trade for Torey Lovullo?

9:29	Paul Swydan: 1. No. 2. Yes. 3. No. 4. No.

9:29	Paul Swydan: I think the fact that the Sox rallied to win Game 3 and make Game 4 a fight at home against a clearly superior team saved Farrell’s job.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: No, Probably, Yes. No

9:30	Owen: If you were Girardi, how would you ideally pitch game 5? I mean obviously CC CG would be ideal, but you know what I mean.

9:30	Paul Swydan: I’d manage it exactly the way he managed the Wild Card game. Sabathia has not just a short leash, he has no leash. Green, Robertson, Kahnle, Chapman. If the game goes to extras, Sonny Gray or Betances.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: There is no way to know before the game gets going. Just know who can do what and throw the best arms

9:31	Owen: Are non-human animals sentient? I’d put it to a poll

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’d like to think so, yes.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: yea

9:31	Anna Karina: The AL results show a clear split between people who follow and love baseball and people who voted for a team other than Cleveland.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Anna feels pretty strongly that Cleveland should be the AL’s rep. Again, I agree, but Houston and New York are both pretty fun teams to watch.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: Any of the teams are fine. Houston or Cleveland deserve it.

9:33	Ves: I think Lebron would actually be a CF, at least earlier in his career. He’d be incredibly rangey, great arm strength, insane first step, etc.

9:33	Paul Swydan: Yeah, if you’re talking about 20-year-old LeBron, sure. But now, no way. No way his knees would keep up with that pounding.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: And think of the home runs he’d steal

9:33	Paul Swydan: Yeah that’d be fun.

9:33	KatieCaseyWasBaseballMad: Regardless of his health, was it hubris not to hold back Stras’ bullpen?

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Bored sports writers stuck in their hotel rooms after emptying the mini-fridge.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Look, it’s an old-school approach, but I don’t think it’s necessarily the wrong one. Game 5 is on Thursday, so they weren’t getting another Scherzer start. Strasburg is going to only start one game. They picked Game 5. Shrug.

9:35	Paul Swydan: There’s no reason that the Nats can’t empty the bullpen behind Roark tomorrow in Game 4.

9:36	Paul Swydan: And then just pin their whole hopes to Strasburg in Game 5.

9:36	Paul Swydan: And again, maybe he really is sick. I don’t know. Do you?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: no

9:37

Dann: My dad and I had enough time for one drink and an early bit of ballpark food before they sent us home. Hooray, after dark chat to get me through make-up working hours! And kudos to Wrigley for bringing back the gluten-free burger bun for the playoffs. It’s the Schwarber of 2017.

So we get Strasburg/Arrieta in game 4 tomorrow. Does that mean Washington would use Gio or Roark against the Professor in a potential g5?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Oh Dann, do I have some news for you.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Dann, check twitter from about 2 hours back

9:38	Paul Swydan: The good news about Roark going tomorrow is that Gonzalez will also be on full rest tomorrow too, so they can piggy back if Roark gets into trouble.

9:38	Tony Womack: Why did Girardi use the backend of his rotation before the front end of his rotation?

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Talk about a manager about to lose his job.

9:39	Paul Swydan: They must have thought Severino really was tired after the Wild Card game. Obviously when he did pitch he did great, so it’s hard to criticize the decision to push Severino back too much.

9:40	Paul Swydan: Also, I don’t think Girardi is getting fired. That would be foolish.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: So it will probably happen

9:40	Big Willie Style: Do you think willie calhoun starts for Tex next year? What kimd of numbers do you think he could put up? Would he be more valuable than, say, mitch haniger?

9:41	Paul Swydan: All things equal, I would not expect Calhoun to be more valuable than Haniger next season, no. And I don’t think it’s a given that he opens the season as a starter for them. Not at this juncture anyway.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: The Rangers are a mess trying to figure out playing time (like the Cubs this year). Some trades need to go down to clear up the playing time situation.

9:42	druidiful: Starters have to just better than they have so far just by regression, right?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I would certainly think so. Greinke and Darvish were better yesterday. So was Scherzer and Quintana.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but the managers seem to have a hair triggers.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Yeah, managers seem to understand now that they can be criticized for leaving a pitcher in after he has given up 3 runs, an are acting accordingly.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Survival of the fit, only the strong survive.

9:43	Tommy: I’m watching smackdown.

9:44	Paul Swydan: Well, that makes one of us, Tommy!

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Congrats

9:44

RIch: What did you guys think of Dusty pulling Scherzer? I read Daves case for Dusty but if it’s me I would take Scherzer against Schwarber and his 30% k rate any day. Also with pitch count I know scherzer was banged up down the stretch and didn’t pitch as much but 120 pitches a game was not that out of the ordinary for him this year.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure there was a right answer. I could be convinced either way.

9:45	Paul Swydan: I think that a week ago, everyone was worried that Scherzer wouldn’t be able to pitch at all on that hamstring, and as a result, I had no problem with Baker pulling him when he did.

9:45	Nick: I can confirm that Big Mouth is gross, hilarious, and genuine. Watched the whole series over a weekend. Give it a shot.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Damn, I need that much time over a weekend.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Shrug. I have a lot of Netflix shows in the queue before that one gets a shot.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Also, yeah, don’t taunt us like that.

9:46	Paul Swydan: Rude.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea

9:46	Long Live Jeff Frye: Ignoring the complexity of contract issues, if you just had to bet on the number of years that Darvish will be reasonably Darvishy, what would you bet?

9:46	Paul Swydan: 3.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: 1 if I believe my previous work on new UCL holding up. Maybe I should revisit that work.

9:47	Paul Swydan: The bottom line on Darvish is that next year he will be 31. He’s got one 200 IP season under his belt. He probably won’t get another one. He’s got zero 5 WAR seasons under his belt. I wouldn’t bet on him ever getting one.

9:48	Paul Swydan: I guess what I mean is that “reasonably Darvishy” to me is a 3 WAR pitcher. I think he can keep that up for 3 more years, but I’m not sure I’d be willing to pay to see it happen.

9:48	Peter: Should the dbacks push hard for JDM? Get the feeling their lineup could use some real help, especially since Lamb seems to only be good for the first 100 games of the season

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: He doesn’t have as many IP on the new elbow.More like 2.5

9:49	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, if for nothing other than the optics, they have to go hard after JDM, and force him to choose a DH role or the Dbacks. If he signed with another NL team, all the goodwill the Dbacks just built vanishes in an instant.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they could push for several FA. Don’t act desperate for JDM.

9:49	hscer: eating before swimming?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Depends on what you’re eating, but generally, yeah, I’m OK with that.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Just don’t carbo load before you go swimming.

9:50	William Ashley: Is the Luis Castillo this year mostly what we should expect to see from him over the coming years?

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s good, damn good. If he can stay healthy with that violent delivery, yes.

9:51	Paul Swydan: I would simply offer the cautionary note that his stint in the majors was his highest K% in a stop in four seasons. But I do like him.

9:51	Mike: Cody Bellinger appreciation time!

9:51	Paul Swydan: OK.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: He help win one of fantasy leagues.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Bellinger had the fourth-highest BsR among first basemen this year. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&…

9:53	HappyFunBall: Strasburg IS sick. Half the team is aick. to have originated in a Capitals locker room in the mid 80s, the plague has metastisized citywide in recent years

9:53	Paul Swydan: That sounds serious.

9:53	HappyFunBall: Strasburg IS sick. Half e team is sick. It’s the DC Sports Playoff Flu Thought to have originated in a Capitals locker room in the mid 80s, the plague has metastisized citywide in recent years

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s spreading

9:53	Paul Swydan: Real comment. It’s definitely an issue. I saw it overcome the Wizards this past spring

9:54	Dann: I wasn’t on Twitter because of work, but caught up after I submitted the first question. Thankfully I’ll be able to make it back tomorrow afternoon. And a dry field for Jake is ideal.

9:54	Paul Swydan: A dry field for everyone is ideal. 🙂

9:54	Nick: Has there been any work to combine psychological profiling with statistical analysis to see if maybe a certain player really is susceptible to being unclutch/buckling under pressure? Ballplayers are human, after all.

9:54	Paul Swydan: I don’t know about that specific issue, but yes, teams are always looking into that sort of less tangible science.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: In work done, being clutch or not isn’t predictable. More data could help.

9:56	Trevor Bauer: Should I be punished for spending a good portion of last night’s ALDS Game 4 on twitter blocking people? https://deadspin.com/trevor-bauer-had-a-rough-start-and-then-went-on-a…

9:56	Paul Swydan: I will be a lot happier as a person when I stop having to hear about the stupid things Trevor Bauer does and says.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s better than drinking beer and eating fried chicken.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Are you kidding? Beer and fried chicken are delicious, and good for the soul.

9:57	Paul Swydan:

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Souls don’t win championships

9:57	hscer: US soccer out of the World Cup! Coverage next year will be bearable!!!

9:58	Paul Swydan: Pretty incredible ineptitude. Not even the San Francisco Giants had a worse season than USMNT.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: i don’t follow, sorry.

9:58	Paul Swydan: The US lost to Trinidad & Tobago tonight, basically eliminating from qualifying for the World Cup next year.

9:58	Paul Swydan: I think it’s next year.

9:59	Ves: I think “Souls don’t win championships” has been the San Antonio Spurs mantra over the course of their 20 year run of being incredible.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Ha.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, Duncan had nothing to do with it.