FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 11/7/17

by Paul Swydan

November 7, 2017

6:21

Paul Swydan:

Do you think the Hall of Fame should waive the fifth year of Roy Halladay’s waiting period and put him on the ballot this year instead of next year?

Yes (35.8% | 95 votes)

No (33.2% | 88 votes)

I’d like to say yes, but with the ballot so crowded I’m afraid he might crowd out someone deserving. (22.6% | 60 votes)

I can’t decide (8.3% | 22 votes)

Total Votes: 265

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody.

9:02	hscer: I wonder what we’re going to be talking about…sigh…

9:02	Nic: RIP Roy Halladay.You will be remembered.

9:02	Nathan: RIP Roy Halladay

9:02	Pablo: Just dug my Doctober shirt out from under my bed and put it in the wash so that I can wear it out this weekend. If you see me at the UT game or around Austin please say hello. RIP

9:02	Long Live Jeff Frye: I am really shocked at the Halladay news. As a Red Sox fan, I saw him pretty often with Toronto, and he was someone I had enormous respect for on a team I otherwise disliked. Smart and preternaturally steady pitcher.

9:02

Blueyays: I’m really sad. I’d been planning on going to Cooperstown in a couple of years for Doc’s induction and seeing the city. Now I won’t get to see that, or his number being retired at the SkyDome. I was just reading through his Twitter the other day… I don’t really have much to say, but I’m really sad that he’s suddenly gone. Without even realising it, lots of my future baseball plans involved the Doc.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: A sad day indeed.

9:04

Paul Swydan: I would echo LLJF’s comments. I would say that Halladay and Mike Mussina are two of the pitchers who I always feared when they pitched against the Red Sox. When I moved to Colorado, and started being involved with high school baseball through the Rockies, I remember everyone speaking so highly of Halladay. It really is a shame. May his memory be eternal.

9:04	Satya: Could a Matt Kemp-Rusney Castillo trade make sense?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Some non-Halladay questions are in the queue too.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Trading junk, why not?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I would say no, because right now, Castillo isn’t on the Sox’s luxury tax bill. Kemp would be.

9:05	Aaron: Chances the HoF waives the 5 year period for Doc?

9:06	Rob: What are the odds the Hall of Fame holds a special election for Roy Halladay? The last guy to get such an election also died in a plane accident.

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe but not sure

9:07

Paul Swydan: So, I made this the poll today. I lean toward no. As sad as it is, I think Halladay’s situation and Clemente’s situation are only similar in the end result of a plane accident. And I think there are also probably logistical considerations. The ballots may actually have already been mailed out? Or we’re too close to them being mailed out to be rewritten? Not sure.

9:07	Jackson: What would you blame the Red Sox’s collective downswing in hitting on, and do they right the ship in 2018?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I don’t know that I blame it on any one thing. Ramirez and Pedroia were seriously hurt. Bogaerts got hit on the hand and kept playing.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the drop was from basically playing hitters who were hurt (Moreland, Xander, Dustin). The team needed to let them rest and get healthy.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I guess you could coalesce that narrative into “lack of depth.” Or, effective depth. The team REFUSED to move on from Chris Young and Brock Holt even after it was clear toward the end of August that they needed to upgrade.

9:10	Trade Bait: Odds Ellsbury gets Traded,if so where?

9:11	Paul Swydan: He’s still a league average player, but I don’t see a huge market for him even if the Yankees eat all of his salary, so I think it would make more sense for them to just hang on to him.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: 10%.

9:11	joe: With the Cubs, Astros, Nationals, and Dodgers not being able to offer Otani more than 300k, the Yankees have to be considered the favorite, no?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Well, they might be, but not for that reason. If he’s willing to not wait for a $500 million payday or whatever he’d get as a free agent, he’s probably not too concerned between the difference of $300k and $10 million.

9:13	Brandon M: The Rangers are being rumoured as a potential landing spot for Arrieta. Do you think this is a logical fit, or does he go elsewhere?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s whatever deal he makes with a team for them to offer a year after he signs. It’s not going to be just for $300K

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see it but he’s likely to sign somewhere else. Thin pitching free agent market

9:15	Paul Swydan: So, it took Arrieta eight years to get through arbitration, which is long for someone who has become a high-value player. I think that he is simply going to take the most money that is offered to him. Would he fit on the Rangers? Sure. But they’d have to offer him the most money.

9:15

Andrew: Given that corner sluggers are so very cheap right now, should teams start buying up corner power hitters like JD Martinez anticipating that their value is at the lowest it will be? I can’t imagine the ball gets “juicier,” but even if it does power hitters hardly have negative value. If free agent prices are depressed anything like trade values, I could see power hitters being the new market inefficiency.

9:16

Paul Swydan: I mean, that was basically the logic that Theo Epstein was using when he snapped up Millar, Jeremy Giambi and that David Ortiz guy heading into the 2003 season. It may be happening again right now, but with so many teams being willing to carry an 8th reliever during the season, the math on how many sluggers you can carry may have changed.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: I think power only guys (Chris Carter) will still be depressed. The player needs some other skill. JD can play in the OF

9:18	Oddball Herrera: I’m as shocked by Halladay’s death as the next guy, but what purpose is served by waiving the fifth year? Admittedly I am a practical creature so sometimes symbolic stuff does not compute

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m really not sure.

9:18	Paul Swydan: I don’t know that there is any purpose other than trying to heal those who are affected by his loss. Whether allowing him to be voted on a year early will actually accomplish that goal is certainly up for debate, but I would think that’s the reason.

9:19	We love you Roy : I was too young to ever remember Halliday pitching for the Blue Jays, and yet I still felt his impact at the Rogers centre. He did so much for the Blue Jays and the community, he truly was one of the greatest.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Well said.

9:19	Stevil: Hey Paul, I’m curious what you think the Brewers should do with Braun. Keep him and play him, or move him and eat considerable salary like the Reds did with Phillips.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Keep and play for now. They’re competitive and he could put together a 4 WAR season. Their trade return is likely to be nothing.

9:22

Paul Swydan: It’s an interesting question. Even without Braun, they have four potential starting outfielders in Brinson, Broxton, Phillips and Santana. But I have questions about all of them except Santana, who I love. So it’s a tricky proposition for the Brewers, if they’re trying to contend this season. I don’t think that they can just trade him to clear the salary or roster spot – they’d need to get back a 2018 asset.

9:22	Miami Trade : Could Schwarber be a trade chip for cubs? What About Hector Rondon’s Option?

9:22	Paul Swydan: Maybe, but Schwarber would’ve been a bigger trade chip last offseason. The Cubs missed their chance to cash in.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Schwarber could be moved but his value is down. I’m not sure Rondon has much value.

9:24	Show Hey O’Tawny: I got into baseball in 2013, so I just barely missed out on elite Doc, but throughout my childhood I knew he was the only Blue Jay worth a damn, and I’d probably never get to see a better pitcher wearing that jersey. This sucks. RIP Roy Halladay

9:24	Miami Trade : Halladay was great- he should be hall of famer with 8x AllStar

9:24	Stevil: Is there any real doubt over whether or not Halladay will get into the HOF? Even before this tragedy, I would have guessed there isn’t any.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, I think that there is. He has the perfect game and no-hitter, but he wasn’t quite as valuable in the regular season as Mussina was, and Mussina is having a hell of a time getting in.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: True

9:25	Al: Thoughts on Gold Gloves?Arenado just won his 5th straight while 6 behind rendon in UZR.

9:26	Paul Swydan: I looked at those Rendon defensive stats a month or so ago. I forget exactly why they seemed fishy to me, but they seemed fishy to me. Jeff might remember more than me.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Basically, the UZR value is the only number which favors Rendon. Every other defensive stat favors Arenado

9:27	Catchers: Is Doc a hall of famer? Not doubting his incredible impact on others, 64 career WAR, but JAWS says just short

9:28	Paul Swydan: Yes, absolutely.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: He is IMO, but like Paul said early, it’s getting for pitchers to get in.

9:28	Paul Swydan: By Hall of Stats, he’s clearly over the line. http://www.hallofstats.com/player/hallaro01

9:29

Rob: My first memory of Roy Halladay was his second career start, against the Tigers, in the Jays last game of the 1998 season. The game was televised nationally in Canada on CBC, which is how I got to watch it. He pitched a no-hitter into the 9th inning; the only reason it wasn’t perfect was because of an error in the 5th inning that allowed a runner to get on base. The Tigers pinch-hit for the last batter of the game, and Higginson hit a home run into the Jays bullpen. Dave Stieb, of all people, caught the ball–the guy who had many no-hitters broken up in the 9th inning; that was the last game of his career (though he didn’t pitch, as Halladay completed the game). I’ve been a Halladay fan ever since.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Very cool, Rob thanks for sharing.

9:30	Oh-hey-oh-hey-hey: As a Sox fan, I am worried that Dombrowski will do something stupid this offseason, like shelling out $150 million for Eric Hosmer or selling whatever’s left of the farm for Stanton. I’m trying to assuage my fears

9:31	Paul Swydan: The thing you should be far more afraid of is Dombrowski trading Bradley, Devers, and seven prospects for Stanton. Hosmer would be a monetary mistake, but trading for Stanton would have far more long-term ramifications.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I’d bet he’s going all in and do both

9:32	Paul Swydan: Yey!

9:32	A Tigers Fan: While we are debating whether or not Halladay is Hall-worthy, it’s worth noting that Lou Whitaker’s exclusion from the Hall is inexcusable. 74.9 career WAR!

9:32	Paul Swydan: For sure. He’ll get in someday, but he already deserves to be there.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: It’s total BS. Those mid-80’s Tigers must have really pissed some people off

9:33	stever20: what did you guys think of the awards finalists? Were you surprised neither of the Rockies made the top 3 in the NL MVP voting?

9:34	Paul Swydan: No, not really. The top of the NL MVP race was a total toss up, and when the Rockies slid behind the Dbacks in the Wild Card race, they sort of bequeathed their spot to Goldschmidt, who has been excellent for longer than Arenado and Blackmon have been.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I find it’s tough for a team with two close guys to get the needed vote. Also, there is a bias against Rockies for awards and HOF

9:34	hscer: Szymborski was pessimistic about Halladay’s HOF chances when we were discussing them on Twitter last night…

9:35	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m pessimistic about his chances, but I think he deserves to be there. Sadly, his death may swing some votes in his favor, which makes me feel very uncomfortable.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Voters have no had a good track record with pitchers.

9:35

Blueyays: Bullpenning is definitely the right strategy, but I do miss complete games because following a starter’s progress through his start is so much fun. And that’s partially because I grew up getting to watch Halladay do things like throw 266 innings in a year, throw 9 complete games in multiple different seasons, throw a 10-inning shutout, throw complete games that lasted under two hours. And the whole time, getting to look forward to his start every fifth game, and be so sure that we’d win, was a fantastically comforting feeling.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree. Those were the good old days but times change

9:37	Paul Swydan: It’s the right strategy in a world where every pitcher wants to max out on their effort on every pitch. But I don’t know that that’s the right strategy overall. And I think watching those complete games is evidence of that.

9:38	Catchers: I enjoy FG comments almost as much as the articles. Is that weird?

9:38	Paul Swydan: No, I enjoy them very much as well. It’s one of the few sites where I look forward to reading the comments.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: No.

9:39	Stevil: What do you think of Jerry Dipoto’s potential “wolfpack” strategy? Cameron suggested something quite similar as a possible solution for the Marlins after the tragic loss of Fernandez. Could this become a trend across baseball, given the lack of supply and the strong demand for pitching?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Dipoto: “We are adjusting toward what the world looks like now for starting pitchers, which is a 15-to-18-out starter (rather) than the complete-game starter.”

9:40	Paul Swydan: Again, I’m personally less interested to watch this style of play, but it’s where the industry is headed, and Dipoto is right to be on the front end of that curve.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Heading their fast with the average start only lasing 5.5 IP. I do think bullpens will get taxed over the regular season.

9:41	stever20: What did you guys think of the group that is up for the (whatever they are calling the veterans committee) ballot this year? Does the WS and the way the starters were used help Jack Morris out at all?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Probably not and I hope Miller finally gets voted in

9:42

Paul Swydan: No, I don’t think so. Starters not going as long doesn’t mean Morris should get extra credit for pitching in a different era. If Jack Morris pitched today, he’d be a 15-18 out pitcher too. If he tried to pitch the way he did in the 80s today, he’d get hammered. He’d need to adjust his strategy to succeed.

9:43	Stevil: What do the Yankees do with their surplus of infielders? Try to move Castro or Headley (or both). I’ve been curious about the fate of Tyler Wade.

9:43	Paul Swydan: I’d try to trade Headley. Or just dump him.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Headley’s gone

9:44	Paul Swydan: Maybe Castro has more value, but I also like him more, and you could potentially make Castro a utility player in the way you can’t with Headley.

9:44	stever20: Is there anything that can stop the trending of bullpenning? Or is that just inevitable now?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Limit the pitchers allowed on the roster?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Nothing really though. It’s here to stay

9:45	Paul Swydan: I don’t think of anything as inevitable. The bullpenning trend will falter if the MLBPA wakes up and realizes that the bullpenning trend is going to cost its members money.

9:45	Stevil: A little off topic, but what kind of food is missing from MLB stadiums?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Pasta? I don’t think much. If you have the time to cruise around the concourse at your ballpark, you can find just about any food you’d like to eat, which is kind of cool. Though the coolest ballparks are the ones that let you bring in food.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Just regular sandwiches.

9:47	Dingus: Any Gold Gloves that stick out to y’all so far? I’m a little surprised Hosmer got another

9:47	Paul Swydan: Here’s the list – http://m.mlb.com/news/article/260891924/2017-mlb-gold-glove-award-winn…

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Gordon

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: AL LF is rough though

9:48	Paul Swydan: Brian Dozier was a negative at 2B this year by both DRS and UZR.

9:49	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=2b&stats=fld&lg=al&qual=y&ty…

9:49	stever20: Paul, what could the MLBPA really do about the bullpenning trend now though? How could they realistically force any change in the way pitchers were used?

9:50	Paul Swydan: They have to try to start pushing up the value of premium RP contracts. Not just of closers, but of set-up men. If you have to start paying $20M for set-up relievers, then that might put a dent in the trend.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I’m not holding my breath.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know. Smaller rosters?

9:51	Paul Swydan: But then that would be fewer people in the union, so that’s two steps forward, two steps back.

9:52

otis: As a Phillies fan who got hooked on baseball as a child during their streak of 5 straight division titles from 2007-2011, Halladay will always have a place in my mind as one of the more memorable players from my childhood. I was 12 years old in 2011, playing travel ball in the Philly area, and nearly every single kid on my team attempted to mimic his windup and mannerisms on the mound. If I had to use one word to describe Roy Halladay on a baseball field, it would be mechanical. At times he seemed flawless, like a perfectly designed robot. I don’t think I ever fully appreciated how great he was on the hill. An absolute joy to watch.

9:52	Paul Swydan: Well said, Otis.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Thanks for sharing.

9:53

Jeremy: Looking at these Gold Glove winners makes me sad to see that the voting strongly favors those who have won previous awards. This is why we really need one Wild Card winner in both the AL and NL where players without any previous Gold Gloves would be given a chance to win one. A special Wild Card round would be voted on by the BBWAA to choose a winner for the AL and NL.

9:53	Paul Swydan: That’s certainly an interesting idea, but interesting ideas and baseball history rarely mix.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: OK

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry, my kids are acting up

9:55	Paul Swydan: Test

9:55	Paul Swydan: Ok sorry, my computer acted up there for a minute.

9:55	Eric Weinstein: Agree or Disagree: It’s stupid MLB switched it back to LF,CF,RF gold glove rather than just OF? I find it ridiculous that guys like Kole Calhoun and Yoenis Cespedes win gold gloves with guys like Kevin Pillar, Lorenzo Cain, and Jackie Bradley Jr. coming up short

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’m indifferent on this, I think. I think Jeremy’s wild card solution would help alleviate some of this.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m fine either way. If we change the OF, why not the IF and elect four shortstops. They’re better than any 1B

9:57	Lance Biggerstaff: How do you log into these chats as an admin? Is there a password? And if someone happens to steal it could we impersonate, say, Travis Sawchick for a day?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Flagged

9:57	Paul Swydan: No, it’s actually done by facial recognition, so you’d have to go all “Face/Off” on us. Good luck!

9:58

Stevil: Would Cozart make sense for the Mariners? Cano played with a lingering hamstring issue last season, Seager got almost no time off (again) until they fell out of contention, and Segura saw considerable DL time himself. Cozart could feasibly push Segura to 2B and Cano to 1B, if a rotating infield wasn’t desirable.

9:58	Paul Swydan: I’d say the Mariners have bigger fish to fry, but in a vacuum — a vacuum where Cano is willing to switch positions — sure, that makes sense.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Cozart will go somewhere to start

9:59	Anthony: One of my favorite stats from my high school career was that I played against the school that Halladay went to. Best player to come out of Colorado.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Cool

9:59	Paul Swydan: Always heard about how great he was in Colorado. I had always hoped that the Rockies would find a way to sign Halladay before he retired.