FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 12/16/14

by Paul Swydan

December 16, 2014

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi everyone, Paul is going to be a bit late and I will start this chat

9:27	Comment From Larry Bernandez Do you think Scherzer is going to be disappointed and not get the offer he wanted? It seems like not too many teams are that interested in paying his large price.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Just a few teams would be able to afford him to begin with. I think Lester’s deal set the low bar. I expect Scherzer to get a bit more.

9:28	Comment From Ceej Which version of the 2014 Salazar are we more likely to see in 2015?

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: I really don’t know, hopefully the second half version when he threw strikes. I watched one of his starts for this week’s Quick Looks and his defense really let him down a few times.

9:30	Comment From season tickets whats the next big move the Os make?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: trade Ubaldo for another sunk contract. Maybe to the Dodgers or Red Sox.

9:31	Comment From Frankie That Liriano contract is looking better and better with each pitcher who signs this offseason? Would you say it has been the best value signing this winter?

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I liked the Headley signing, Downs was dirt cheap for the Royals

9:32	Comment From Ceej Reports claim that the Mariners are 1-3 days away from announcing another trade. Any guesses?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I am thinking a of Walker, who they have soured on, for another bat.

9:33	Comment From Nim Yelich had a good season. His Hr distance suggests he has developing power but his GB rate says he’ll just kill more worms. Any chance of a GB% turnaround?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: One sec to check something on him….

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: …yep, he is biased against certain pitcher types. He crushes flyball pitchers and gets killed by groundballers. http://www.baseball-referen…

9:36	Comment From PPP If a half of a season’s worth of Jon Lester brings in Addison Russell, what would the Brewers get for a full year of Carlos Gomez? They should be rebuilding, right?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Hi I’m here!

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: They were in 1st place late in the season, the team really can’t rebuild yet, could later in the season.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi Paul and you can take over the questions.

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yeah they’re kind of laying low. I think they’ll do some buy low stuff in January.

9:38	Paul Swydan: I agree with Jeff that I don’t think they’ll punt on 2015.

9:38	Comment From Pale Hose Does it make sense for the Rays to trade Myers?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Sort of, but I would be leery after 2 teams looking to move him in 3 seasons.

9:38	Paul Swydan: Sort of? I think now is a good time to buy low on Myers, if they get him for a buy-low price, but it’s not like the Padres are a Wil Myers away from contention.

9:39	Paul Swydan: That’s a good pint. Also, he was terrible in ’14.

9:39	Paul Swydan: point

9:39	Comment From season tickets why wont the Os trade bundy? he has shown to have an injury problem, and we have already seen this with machado…i think the Os can get the most value now, and Gauzman proved himself to be the starter we want. isnt bundy expendable?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I think it’s a matter of how many prospects the team has, which is not many. They kind of need to hold onto their highly touted guys.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: No, a team can never have too much pitching and Bundy may be Orioles best starter within a season or two.

9:40	Comment From JJB Any thoughts on MLB Network’s show about the World Series umpires – “The Third Team”?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Haven’t seen it.

9:41	Paul Swydan: This is the first I’m hearing of it. I think from a production standpoint it’s a good idea, because the umpires are more likely to be amenable to working on such a project. Or, more amenable than the players. From a viewer standpoint, I can’t say that I’m super interested to watch.

9:41	Comment From Rated Rookie Once again Gavin Floyd only to bump a younger, more talented candidate from the starting rotation of the team who signed him. Does Salazar having an option year make it likely that he spends some time in the minors?

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: We are not to the start of the season yet. Someone could likely be hurt or struggling by then. Most teams need 8-10 starters during a season.

9:42

Paul Swydan: Yes, I think so. Also, while it bugs me that I’ll have to move Salazar and/or House further down my fantasy depth charts this coming year, I don’t see this as a bad signing for Cleveland. We all know now that it takes 8 or 9 starting pitchers. Instead of going the Jeff Francis/Aaron Harang/Freddy Garcia, the Indians got a better version. That’s cool too. It’ll work out.

9:42	Comment From Larry Bernandez Do teams ever try to entice FA’s to sign sooner by offering an extra bonus if they sign within like 5 days or something? Would that lure players out of waiting for other offers?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I think they probably do. Whether or not that works……….

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I think players have a dollar amount they will take and once it gets reached, they will sign.

9:44	Comment From season tickets speaking of the Os trading ubaldo for a sunk contract…. josh hamilton? what else would it take to get that done?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I don’t think the Angels could deal with the PR fallout of trading Hamilton straight up for Ubaldo. They’d need either prospects or the Orioles to eat all of Hamilton’s salary, which, why would Baltimore do that?

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: it seems somewhat fair. I think Hamilton could end of OK, but owed more money.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: Good point on the PR

9:46	Comment From michael where do you think the market inefficiencies are right now? if you were planning to build a team within a three year horizon, what types of players would you spend on?

9:46	Paul Swydan: I think the lessons of the last few years is that you need to stock up on position players who can hit, and if you can, find hitters that can regularly hit the ball to all fields, and enjoy doing so.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Defense is still reasonably cheap, middle relievers

9:47	Comment From Steve Perry How concerned should I be about Nick Markakis’ drop in fly ball distance, combined with a move to a less LH-friendly park?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Not concerned at all. Unless you’re a Braves fan.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul, but I have run some numbers and found his defensive numbers aren’t as bad as some indicators make them out to be.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I guess we’ll see how severe his neck injury is.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: and that.

9:48	Comment From Pablo Thoughts on the Dodgers dropping Wilson?

9:49	Paul Swydan: It must have felt very liberating for Friedman and Zaidi to blow a cool $9.5 million like that.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: They are one of the few teams who could afford to with PR backlash. Probably a good move in the long run.

9:49	Comment From Ceej Should we view the Joyce as a sign of things to come, or more of the Rays being forced to do Rays things, like the article on the A’s?

9:50	Paul Swydan: I have a not-so-secret theory that the Rays are punting this season in advance, but even if they are, they didn’t really need Joyce. Well, they didn’t before the Myers stuff. So now I’m a little lost. I guess if they keep Zobrist in RF, they can run out Jennings-Kiermaier-Zobrist…

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: the Rays are in a weird place where they need to rebuild from the bottom, but don’t really want to.

9:51

Comment From Jack
What can the Giants do at this point to get their roster ready to compete with the Dodgers in NL West in 2015? (I recognize ((as Grant Brisbee pointed out in a recent article over at SBN)) that most “rumors” we hear are the ones people want public, rather than the real juicy stuff, but seems to me that the Giants are running out of options)

9:51	Paul Swydan: Will MIddlebrooks is available!

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: I see Shields in SF

9:51	Comment From Geust More like Won’t Middlebrooks.

9:52	Paul Swydan: BOOM.

9:52	Comment From Always Betts on Red (Sox) The “seismic rumblings” of the Nats got me thinking of this trade. Red Sox send Mookie Betts, Henry Owens, Joe Kelly, and Devan Marrero to the Nats for Zimmermann and lucas giolito. Thoughts?

9:52	Paul Swydan: I think that’s a terrible trade. Is Giolito really that much better than Owens? I doubt it. Not good enough to justify that deal.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Won’t happen and I still don’t get the idea of why the Nats feel they need to move Giolito

9:53

Comment From Jack
Another Giants one… do you think the would have any interest in singing Barry Zito? // Would Zito have any interest in coming back on the right deal? He is presently down at the Texas Baseball Ranch (where Kazmir and Bauer ((and myself)) have trained) and I have it on good authority that his velo is climbing back towards 2000-2002 levels.

9:53	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so. Probably?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: He has a January showcase, we can find out how he is throwing then.

9:54	Comment From Barry Zito And I’m in the best shape of my life!

9:54	Comment From BAM What do the Dodgers do at second and third next year?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Are Howie Kendrick and Juan Uribe not good enough options for you?

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Whatever they want

9:55

Comment From Brian
Cleveland is making some peculiar moves. I can understand the Floyd signing, but they also just signed Jerry Sands and Destin Hood. We have no room for OF’s even at AAA. I feel like Salazar-Bauer-House are now expendable and someone seems on the way out in the Columbus OF. Could a trade be brewing?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Again, I think it’s more just about building depth. Especially on minor league deals.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: There is nothing against stockpiling talent and having depth. If they have too much to waste, make a early season trade to a team with a major injury (which will happen)

9:57	Paul Swydan: OK, so now I’m seeing that Myers might go to Seattle and Taijuan Walker to San Diego. Which, OK.

9:57	Paul Swydan: Also, I still feel like Jerry Sands could have that Steven Pearce season in him someday.

9:57	Comment From Guest What can we make of the race to the middle this offseason?

9:58	Paul Swydan: For me, it’s slightly invigorating and slightly annoying. It bothers me that a loaded team like the Nationals is trying to trade guys like Zimmermann and Desmond that they should be signing long-term.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I like it will more teams are competing instead of 10 being in rebuild mode.

9:58	Comment From Rated Rookie The difference between Giolito and Owens is that Giolito throws strikes.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Noted

9:58	Paul Swydan: Ouch. Still though, they’ve both been top 60 prospects.

9:58	Comment From neal re: teams trying to entice players to sign sooner, I recall reading last offseason the Angels put out identical offers to multiple FA relievers, with the condition they’d sign whoever accepted first, joe smith was the one that signed with them iirc, turned out to be a good value

9:59	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I remember that too. But again, I think that was an unique situation, and probably doesn’t work out too frequently.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: yep

9:59	Comment From Miguel It’s year-end list time! Do you have any favorite movies, books, or songs/albums from 2014?