FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/10/15

by Paul Swydan

February 10, 2015

4:07	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here at 9 pm ET to cram baseball into every orifice. Baseball, and snow. Frankly, I’m at least 13 percent snow now. See you soon!

4:12	Paul Swydan: Published the last poll twice by accident. Whoops!

8:57	Jeff Zimmerman: If anyone wants to get their ‘nerd on’, they can follow the LABR mixed draft which should start at the same time as this chat. FanGraphs has two teams in it: http://rtsports.com/labr-mi…

9:03	Paul Swydan: ok lets do this like brutus

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Word

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: Test

9:04	Comment From JT91 Is Stephen Drew cooked?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Probably grilled. He likes to stay healthy.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Ask me that in 3 months. I think he can rebound some.

9:06	Comment From JT91 Do the Yankees have any excuse not to go whole hog and sign Moncada and possibly Ibanez?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Not really. But then again, neither do the other 29 teams.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope and it makes the most sense for them since they don’t have a whole lot in the upper minors.

9:07	Comment From randplaty Pecota projects the Padres for 85 wins. ZiPS, 84. Fangraphs – 80. Who do you side with? Why?

9:08	Paul Swydan: I’ll say ours, because I am most familiar with how the process works for our site, since I have input on it. Also, I’m not wild about their outfield defense, or their middle infield offense OR defense.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Jeff will be right back.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I am going to restart, I am having tech issues

9:08	Comment From El Guapo Would I ever have graduated from college if the internet had existed in the early 1990’s?

9:09	Paul Swydan: I was in college when it came in vogue in the late 90s, and during the Napster craze, and I survived. I mean, barely, (my GPA freshman year was downright scary), but I made it!

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, college wasn’t that hard if you went to class

9:10	Comment From Minty Sullivan is very skeptical about Polanco, while Eno’s is in love. What say you two?

9:11	Paul Swydan: Both. I’ll be happy if he gets to 2.5 WAR and will be rooting for him to get there, but I’m not convinced he gets there.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I am hoping he does great, but I have my doubts. Trout struggled in his first partial season. I guess I am skeptical

9:13	Comment From Pennsy How long before changing state marijuana laws also cause MLB to rewrite its league policies regarding it?

9:13	Paul Swydan: A long time. I think it would need to be legal federally before the league does anything. They’re a private business, they don’t necessarily need to worry about local laws.

9:14	Comment From Zeff Jimmerman is baseball front office a good way to make money if you intend to stay there for less than 10 years?

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Years, MLB moves insanely slow

9:15	Comment From Phog Do we get to question the LABR picks in real time, too?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Sure you do!

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:16	Comment From Tvators 16 H2H 5 keepers, is it crazy to want to keep Cody Allen in 14th rather than Hamels in 6th, as your 5th keeper? Already have degrom/Harvey late (I know 2 mets!) only start 4 SP and most top closers going to be kept and would rather not have to draft closers at all, (start 3 RP)

9:16	Paul Swydan: It’s not crazy, but I wouldn’t do it.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Not necessarily advocating for Hamels, but def NOT advocating for Allen.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: I am out again, something is messed up with my connection.

9:17

Comment From Bingo Long
12 team mixed H2H – 14 keepers – 6×6 with singles replacing HRs. Pick 2 of Werth, R Zimmerman, Pederson, Ventura? Already have Scherzer, Greinke, Kluber and Lester as keepers. Have Sandoval at 3rd. Want to hang onto Pederson, but the OF is still crowded in LA. Stick with the veterans?

9:18	Paul Swydan: First, singles replacing homers? Sounds boring. Second, Pederson and Ventura. Can’t keep Werth or Zimmerman, injury risks. Petriello says Pederson is good for 90% or more of the PT in center.

9:19	Comment From El Guapo In a weekly 14-team roto league using 5 SP and 5 RP slots would it be nuts to buy seven $1 starting pitchers and spend the rest on hitters? I’ve never messed around with gimmicky stuff before but this season it seems viable….maybe?

9:20

Paul Swydan: Maybe. Podhorzer did this post last year, and he basically went 3-for-7. So, it depends on your risk tolerance. If you hit on half of them, and then don’t mind playing the waiver wire for the other four, go for it. I’d probably go hybrid though. Lock up one or two sure things at normal cost, and then go 5 for $5.

9:20	Comment From Tony the Tiger Are we still feeling confident about Victor Martinez this season?

9:21

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I looked at him in the latest MASH report. expect ’13 vice ’14

9:22	Comment From Bomok Dynasy league- should I trade Blake Swihart for Hector Rondon?

9:22	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t.

9:24	Comment From Texas Dolly I’m having trouble figuring out what to expect from Shin-Soo Choo this season. Is he a good keeper at $17 in my AL-only?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Reminder that the accuracy of our answers go way up if you tell us the cap of money that you’re working with. Regardless, $17 sounds high.

9:24	Comment From El Guapo Eno had said you guys were working on a customizable fantasy value calculator. Is that still in the works? Happy with FG+ but greedy for more, more, more!

9:25	Paul Swydan: It is!!! Appelman told me today he is in the “finishing touches” stage with the auction calculator. I’m quite excited about this.

9:26

Comment From Cardinal Shark
In a 2 catcher NL-only league, I can keep either Posey or Harper at identical prices, but not both. Lucroy and Mesoraco will be kept by other owners, while JUpton, Marte, Cargo, and Heyward are available in the auction. Whoever I release will be bid through the roof, so I do not expect to get him back. Thanks for the chat

9:26	Paul Swydan: Given the league dynamics, I think you’re justified in keeping Posey, for sure.

9:26	Comment From L54 Any idea when Blue Jay ZiPS are coming out, Paul?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Hot off the Internet Presses! Carson says they are coming on Thursday. Perhaps with a vengeance!

9:27	Comment From zwibi What do you think about Jon Gray this year. Last year he was the hot commodity and is now never spoken enough. I know he didnt have an exceptional year but it seems to be a pretty steep drop for a guy with his stuff.

9:28

Paul Swydan: Yeah, and prospect lists are mixed. I’ve seen him drop a few spots in some and rise a few in some. I think if you have a dynasty league that you need to snap him up. I think that if you have a re-draft league, then you can wait and see. Kyle Kendrick’s signing almost certainly means that Gray starts the season in the minors, but he should be heard from this season for sure.

9:28

Comment From Arnie
In an AL keeper league with a $280 budget for auction. I can only keep 7 but my dilemma is who to keep. Please help. Bogaerts $5, Rusney Castillo $10, David Ortiz $11, Mookie Betts $10, JD Martinez $10 , M Saunders $1, Sal Perez $10, Rougned Odor $5, Neftali Feliz $10 and Jake McGee $1. Can really use some help, so please help. Thanks

9:30	Paul Swydan: See, Arnie is doing it right. Xander, Mookie, Perez, Odor, McGee, Martinez, and then depending on your outlook for the next couple of years, Rusney or Ortiz. Rusney if you’re in for long haul, Ortiz if you want the crown this year.

9:30

Comment From Toggleswitch
Could the Phillies ask a team(Padres or Red Sox) to sign Mocada then trade Hamels For him, agreeing to pay 2/3 of Hamels contract. The benefits being they don’t have to pay the penalty in 30 days, and they won’t have restrictions on international amateurs the next 2 seasons.

9:31	Paul Swydan: I’m pretty sure that if the commissioner’s office caught wind of that there would be hell to pay. No way that happens.

9:31	Comment From Mitch 16 team dynasty where you can keep the players forever. This trade just happened: Brantley/Cabby/Scherzer for Alex Jackson/Machado/Jonathan Gray and Brett Lawrie. Worse trade ever?

9:32	Paul Swydan: If by “Cabby” you mean Miguel Cabrera, it certainly doesn’t make me feel all warm and fuzzy, but worst trade ever? Nah.

9:32	Comment From brian williams of nbc i was with appelman yesterday and he said he encountered harrowing difficulties regarding the auction calculator.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Hi-yo!

9:33	Paul Swydan: Current events are humorous!

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Close

9:33	Comment From Mike T I am in an AL only league, I have these closers : Greg Holland ($12), Koji ($10) and Perkins ($7): I also have Miller at $1. Who would you trade for offense, I am leaning Perkins, and will need 10-11 spots with about $165 to spend. Who would you trade of those 4?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Definitely Perkins.

9:35	Paul Swydan: Unless you can get the whole world for Holland.

9:36	Comment From Asperusual Sale, Cobb, Mchugh, Keuchel and Odorizzi. Good enough for a 12 team league?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Certainly if it’s an AL-only league. If it’s a mixed league league, I might want a little more than the latter three, but then, I’m greedy.

9:36	Comment From Rick Do you think Porcello can take it up a notch pitching for Boston?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Yes, since he’ll finally have a good defense behind him.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but he may have a better infield in front of him

9:38	Comment From Abe 1st pick in dynasty league out of all of the off-season additions to the player pool. Who would you take?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Gotta be Moncada.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: If he has signed

9:39	Comment From Adam did podhorzer’s computer just die or did he really take billy hamilton with his second pick?

9:39	Paul Swydan: Yeah, Jeff, did he?

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: So tough to make up home runs, it will be interesting to see if he can

9:41	Comment From Bob Loblaw Strictly for fantasy purposes, do you like Stroman or Sale in terms of upside+lack of injuries?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I mean, Sale, but Stroman is right behind him.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: Sale, longer history. I would like to see Stroman pitch for a full season

9:43	Comment From senor_met Is Travis d’Arnaud good enough to be my starting catcher in a 12 team 5×5? I have Mesoraco too but I want to trade him for pitching

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: He is probably replacement level, probably #12

9:43	Paul Swydan: Yes, d’Arnaud is right on the break line of that top 12. I’d like to see him get a full season, but after the top five or so, it’s all a hodgepodge, and TDA has as much upside as the next guy.

9:43	Comment From Scott Thoughts on AJ Pollock? Is he closer to Steamer’s .313 wOBA or Zips’ .351 wOBA at the end of the year?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I’ll say closer to ZiPS. I like Pollock. The caveat is that it might not help as much from a fantasy perspective, because he isn’t going to crank a ton of homers. But he’s a solid player.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Pollock as an overall player, I think half way is good point.

9:46	Comment From G Money Can Marcus Stroman be this years Kluber? Can he pitch more than 220 innings this year?

9:46	Paul Swydan: He can!

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: He could, I think Carrasco with be the Kluber

9:46	Comment From Conor Over/Under: Arod hits 700 homeruns by the time he hangs up the cleats

9:46	Paul Swydan: I’ll go over.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Under

9:47	Comment From Matt I work out 3 hours a day and 7 days a week. How does that compare to professionals athlete? I LOVE it because I have nothing g better to do.

9:48	Paul Swydan: I think that if you count practice time, they are over that figure. But it is probably not that different.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Depends, but I would bet on average they do less.

9:48	Comment From Park Chan hos Beard Should the rockies consider doing a platoon based on playing at and away from coors? like a designated altitude hitter and road hitter. Maybe at catcher or something. is that a stupid idea?

9:49	Paul Swydan: It’s definitely not a stupid idea, but good luck selling some poor soul on being the guy who only gets to hit in the road games. Can’t imagine anyone ever agreeing to that.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: They really just need better players all around.

9:50

Comment From Keeper
I’m a 20 team keeper league with $45/yr budget year. Can keep max 4. Option 1. N. Walker ($12), Calhoun ($11), G. Richards (2yrx$9) or Option 2: N. Walker ($12), Calhoun ($11), Hammel ($5) or H. Rondon (2X$5) Option 3: N. Walker ($12), Calhoun ($11), B McCann ($15) or H. Rondon ( $5)

9:50	Paul Swydan: Option 1

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Option 1

9:51	Comment From Pennsy Who is more physically attractive: Anthony Rendon or Joey Bautista? I say Rendon, Joey Bats’ ears stick out and he’s a little wooden personality wise. Wouldn’t kick either out of bed, of course.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Pennsy, not sure I’m prepared for another year of slobbering Rendon comments. Easy tiger.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Rendon, I am not a Bautista fan, kind of a jerk

9:52	Comment From Daddio 12 team, 5×5 auction league, $270 team, 6 keepers…. pick 6… Freeman $11, Harper $11, Strasburg $13, Springer $1, Bogearts $1, Marte $9, Dozier $6, Ozuna $1

9:53	Paul Swydan: Drop Dozier and Ozuna.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: No Bogearts, and Dozier

9:53	Paul Swydan: I like Ozuna, but I like those other 6 more, and with Harper, Springer and Marte, you won’t miss Ozuna.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Xander gon’ show erry’body this year.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: I have soured quickly on Bog

9:54	Paul Swydan: That’s alright, Jeff. He’ll show you.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: probably

9:54

Comment From Mike T
AL only league, 2 C needed, I am planning to get rid of Avila at $5 and get a C in my auction. Would you spend money on Gattis, or Russell Martin? OBP is used. I need about 8 bats and 3 starters (Sale / Price are out there, I have Odorizzi, Gausman and Bud Norris as my starters), but can’t rely on Avila / Iannetta combo and could use an upgrade. With my needs, should I keep Avila, or try to spend at a scarce position?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’d probably spend on Martin if you dump Avila, which I think is a fine strategy. I am not big on Avila.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Throw Gattis out first and see where he goes. I like him. If he goes too high, go for Martin. A nice buy may be Detroit’s McCann

9:56	Comment From Bob Loblaw Is there any strategy for closers besides take a bunch of crap in the last few rounds and hope it works out? Because I feel like I’m taking crazy pills when I try to set down any strategy.

9:57	Paul Swydan: There are certainly other strategies, but that is my favorite one in a snake draft. In an auction draft, I try to get one good closer for normal money and then get a bunch of average or worse guys for cheap.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: I aim for one of the top 4, love the K’s to go with saves and dumpster dive for high K’s guys like Giles and the guy from Tampa which I can’t think off.

9:58	Comment From Big joe mufferaw Who would you draft 1st in a non keeper league NSH Betances or Adrew Miller

9:58	Paul Swydan: Miller for me.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I would go the other way since it is a keeper league

9:59	Comment From senor_met How severely, if at all, do you anticipate Jacob deGrom to regress next year?