FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 2/21/17

by Paul Swydan

February 21, 2017

4:53	Paul Swydan: What’s your favorite Disney animation movie of this decade? Tangled (8.2% \| 16 votes) Wreck-It-Ralph (23.5% \| 46 votes) Frozen (24.1% \| 47 votes) Big Hero 6 (16.4% \| 32 votes) Zootopia (21.5% \| 42 votes) Moana (6.1% \| 12 votes) Total Votes: 195

4:58

Paul Swydan:

What market do you think is the best for MLB to expand to?

Charlotte (14.6% | 42 votes)

Las Vegas (9.0% | 26 votes)

Brooklyn/NY/NJ (8.0% | 23 votes)

Montreal (46.1% | 132 votes)

San Antonio (5.9% | 17 votes)

Mexico City (5.9% | 17 votes)

San Juan (2.4% | 7 votes)

Santo Domingo (0.3% | 1 vote)

Other US market (7.3% | 21 votes)

Other foreign market (0% | 0 votes)

Total Votes: 286

6:35	Paul Swydan: How many years would you sign Eric Hosmer for when he reaches free agency? 1-3 (39.9% \| 103 votes) 4-6 (25.5% \| 66 votes) 7-9 (1.5% \| 4 votes) 10!!! (2.3% \| 6 votes) I wouldn’t touch him with a 10-foot clown pole (30.6% \| 79 votes) Total Votes: 258

9:00	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:00	Jeff Zimmerman: Hello

9:00	Cody: I have the second pick in a H2H with R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP along with ERA, SV, K/9, WHIP, and QS as categories. Trout is going first – as somewhat of a beginner to fantasy baseball, who you would recommend taking second overall? Kershaw, Bryant, Betts, etc..

9:01	Paul Swydan: For a beginner, you certainly have landed on the three best second-pick choices. My personal preference is Bryant, but I don’t think there is a wrong answer in the group.

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Betts or Kershaw. Can’t go wrong with either. With it being H2H, I may take kershaw

9:02	PL: How crazy am I for thinking Oakland could have a top 10 rotation this year

9:02	Paul Swydan: Slightly crazy? They could, but right now we have them at 20th.

9:03	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Fairly, a lot has to go right

9:03	CarrotJuice: I live in Brooklyn. We don’t need another team. Anyone who votes for Brooklyn expansion is a fake vote.

9:03	Paul Swydan: FAKE NEWS! SAD!

9:03

Joc: Hey guys, in need of help here. In a keeper lague, classic H2H, 12 team, 12 keepers each, would you trade Michael Fulmer and James Paxton for Max Scherzer? I’m a contender, but absolutely love those two guys. Also, is it silly to keep Nelson Cruz instead of younger guys with long-term potential? And last question, I can get Matt Harvey for cheap, do you trust him? I know there’s a big risk, but do you think he’s worth it? I’m trying to win, but it’s not like my window is closing, I think. Thanks a lot for your help and have a great evening!

9:04	Paul Swydan: I would absolutely trade Fulmer and Paxton for Scherzer. It’s not crazy to keep Cruz if you’re trying to win. I do not trust Harvey, but if he’s cheap, it may be worth it.

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: I would take Scherzer. If contending, keep Cruz. I am staying away from Harvey for now

9:05	Dibbles: What type of production do you expect from Julio Urias this season?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Good to great, across a normal allotment of innings.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: 150 IP

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: The team is keeping in extended ST to start the season

9:06	Pacos Tacos: Posey rendon or yelitch

9:06	Paul Swydan: Without any other info, Posey > Yelich > Rendon

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Posey

9:06	Jeff Zimmerman: Not really close

9:06

Jose: I don’t understand how MLB could expand internationally as currently considered. None of the available cities (outside of Montreal) have the population, average income, or potential TV contract to make a team financially viable. Do we really want to expand just so can have another Marlins or Tampa-like franchise?

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they are at the point of having all their options on the table and cut down later.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Are you serious? Mexico City’s “Urban” population as defined by Wikipedia is 20.4 million, which is on par with New York City. It’s either the largest or second largest city on the continent.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: My take: http://www.hardballtimes.com/major-league-baseball-needs-to-expand/

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Manfred is following it to a T

9:08	Paul Swydan: To be honest, I don’t think there is a good reason why there isn’t a team there already.

9:09	Paul Swydan: Yeah, read Jeff’s article. He did a good job with that. Chris Mitchell has written well on it in the past as well, and will be updating his work come April or May.

9:09	@OutfieldGrass24 : Pretty sure you meant to let the reader respond with, “I wouldn’t touch him with a 10-foot pole, clown” That said, you’re no clown. I would have just assumed Cistulli put the poll together.

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: Paul?

9:10	Paul Swydan: NOPE!

9:10	Harris : Do you think there are enough stats that adjust to quality of hitters faced? DRA is the only stat I know of that considers this.

9:10	Paul Swydan: This is a better question for Jeff than me.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t find it important. I think the umpire aspect is more important.

9:12	Hannah Hochevar: After waiting all off-season for the O’s to do something, they made 4 moves in as many days. Nothing splashy (Bourne, Nuno, etc.) but was this better late than never or better never than late?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I’d lean toward the former. These are good depth moves, but they probably won’t make or break the team.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t get the Orioles. They are just a few moves from being really good and they keep getting in their own way.

9:13

Saul Pwydan: How does pitch framing account for pitches that miss their target by a large margin? If a catcher is setting up outside corner, and the pitcher hits the inside corner but it’s called a ball, does this hurt the catcher’s framing stats even though he probably had no chance to frame the pitch?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I don’t know for sure, but I would assume that it does hurt him.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: It hurt them. Part of the game.

9:14	BoJack Horseman: I feel like I have to say this every week, we need a best Netflix show poll, so that I, BoJack Horseman (the MOVIE STAR) can win it. Last week, we didn’t have that poll. That was – and I don’t say this lightly – worse than 100 September 11ths.

9:15	Paul Swydan: I’m not running it until you stop complaining, BoJack. If that IS your real name!

9:15

Billy Beane: If you actually had to sign Eric Hosmer to a 10 year deal, how much would make sense? There’s no way a league average bat plays at first base until 37, so you know you’re going to cut him with money remaining at the end… Maybe like 10/$30, 10/$25? He isn’t even that good at the front of it… I guess if you wanted him for 2 or 3 years you could just space out the money over an absurd length of time to defer it. Either way, I want whatever they’re smoking at his house.

9:16	Paul Swydan: Me too!

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: From the stories I’ve heard, some pretty good stuff.

9:16	Chaps: re: MLB in Mexico City – recent political trends aside, how would MLB deal with the high elevation (~7000 ft vs. ~5200 ft in Denver) and the significant pollution? Would a domed stadium be sufficient to deal with the pollution?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I would think a dome would be a potential solution. Maybe part of the deal would be that they have to build a bunch of those cool tree towers that aim to reduce pollution.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: I don’t know about the pollution. It’s just an option.

9:19	Hack Wilson: In the 3rd year of a keep 7 6X6. Best players available are around 40s in NFBC ADP. What does this mean for trade value of top guys. Is KB worth a 1st and 2nd with the inflation?

9:20	Jeff Zimmerman: Use auction values to find out

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Also you can turn ADP to action values here: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/adp-to-auction-values-process/

9:21	Paul Swydan: That seems rich to me.

9:21	Paul Swydan: (on the vertical forest/tree towers i mentioned – very cool: http://www.architecturaldigest.com/story/china-welcome-asia-first-vertical-forest)

9:22	Big Tuna: Need some help with keepers in a 12 team OPS. Pick two: Michael Fulmer in the 15th, Piscotty (16th), Baez (17th) or Jharel Cotton (26th). Thanks

9:22	Paul Swydan: Fulmer and Cotton, for me.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Fulmer and Piscotty for me in weekly lineups. Baez instead of Fulmer in a daily lineup league.

9:23	Ian: OBP dynasty. My Springer for his Buxton/Bellinger?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, I think Bellinger is going to be a stud and Buxton still has potential

9:24	Paul Swydan: I like it for you. Springer doesn’t figure to get much better, so this is probably the time to sell him.

9:24	Frank: Do team win projections take into account a team’s resources and likelihood to add or subtract players later in the season?

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope

9:25	Paul Swydan: Ours certainly don’t. Can’t bake everything in, especially in this case, because we don’t really know.

9:25	Paul Swydan: For instance, would you have predicted at this time last year that the Yankees would be selling come the trade deadline?

9:25	Dave: Trade Benintendi for Gary Sanchez in 1 catcher OBP keeper?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I’d keep Benintendi, but I don’t think you’d be wrong to trade for Sanchez.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, The catcher replacement level pushes Sanchez up quite a bit.

9:27	Dronefinger: Why is Manfred so insistent on pace of play and speeding up the game? If it is because he is trying to draw in a casual fan won’t he be alienating the real fans with his rule changes?

9:28	Paul Swydan: He doesn’t care about alienating real fans, because he knows that real fans are going to stick with the sport no matter what. These changes are mostly about optics. MLB can be said to be doing something about it.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is putting out a ton of bad ideas and then will go with a real plan like a smaller strike zone at some point

9:28

First Time Poster: Trying to decide my final keeper in two leagues with cost in brackets (standard 12 team 5×5 wOBP for both): Arrieta (3rd), Cargo (4th) or Miller (15th). Other league same settings: Arrieta Desmond (5th), Arrieta (7th), or Quintana (9th). Also, how do I space out my questions? Pressing enter submits my question, leaving for a very ugly looking question.

9:29	Paul Swydan: The question looks fine, no worries there.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Arrieta and then Desmond. I could go Cargo in league 1 and Arrieta in league 2

9:30	Paul Swydan: I guess I am not sure which Miller we mean here. Brad/Shelby/Andrew? If it’s Andrew, I like him in the 15th, otherwise Arrieta.

9:30	Paul Swydan: For the second league, probably Arrieta.

9:30	Dronefinger: Did MLBPA union cheif Tony Clark mess up this new collective bargaining agreement by letting the commissioner and owners make unilateral rule changes going forward in 2018? How big of an oversight was it? Should MLBPA find a new union chief?

9:31	Paul Swydan: I think it’ll end up being a huge oversight. MLB can basically do whatever they want to the strike zone next year and the players are powerless to stop them. MLBPA needs to be run by a labor lawyer.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the players need to bring a big time business man. They are going against 30+ smart guys and getting owned

9:32

aspergilius fumigatus: A few weeks ago, Sullivan had an article about how Kiermaier (and the Rays in general) were unlucky in which pitchers they faced, presumably causing his hitting stats to hover below his true value. Why isn’t this strength of opponent factor used more in player forecasts? Does it have to do with a sense of “evening out” over time?

9:32	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think the underlying point there is that those things usually DO even out over time, but for that specific period of time, they didn’t for Kiermaier. Nevertheless, I don’t view him as an elite hitter.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: In forecasts, one is going to be able to forecast pitcher rotations.

9:33

Aunt Jessie: Do you know of any *specific* examples of “contract negotiations in season distracted a player?” And/or, address that meme/cliche/tactic/line in general…? Is it true? Is it a negotiation tactic? Etc? It seems like this is what an agent is FOR so I don’t see why it’d be that distracting..?

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: I think players just want to play the game and not get pissed with management. The don’t want to get into a Betances situation mid-season

9:35	Paul Swydan: Well, don’t forget that for the most part, you’re not dealing with people with the same capacity for intellectual thought as a FanGraphs reader. Furthermore, these guys need to be laser-focused in order to succeed. But it’s also a little bit of a ploy too.

9:35	First Time Poster: Had the first pick in a one round minor league draft, with the pick having to begin the year in the minors to stay on your team. Moncada, Rodgers, and Crawford were all kept, and I wanted upside with 2018/2019 as my main focus and went with Gleyber Torres. Thoughts?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Love Gleyber, and he’s a good pick given your situation.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Good pick. I am a huge Robles fan though. Can’t really go wrong.

9:36	Dronefinger: If Eric Gagne pitches decent for Canada in the WBC will any team offer him an MLB contract?

9:36	Paul Swydan: I doubt it, but stranger things have happened.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Milb at most

9:37	Mat: $4 Baez, $6 Peraza or a $5 Gray for my last keeper in a 10 team only league? I’m already keeping Bryant, Rizzo, Turner, Piscotty, Dahl, Cueto and Oh for a total of $104

9:38	Paul Swydan: $5 Gray!

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Peraza and I may take Baez over Oh

9:38	Dronefinger: Should the All-Star game add skills contests? I wan’t to see some Outfielder throwing contests and Pitchers breaking plates on corners of the strike zone with pinpoint control.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Keep one forever in standard 20-team, 35-keeper industry league? Keepers due tonight. Paulo Orlando (17.5% \| 7 votes) Matt Boyd (50.0% \| 20 votes) Hector Santiago (15.0% \| 6 votes) Tyler Duffey (17.5% \| 7 votes) Total Votes: 40

9:39	Paul Swydan: Yes. I’ve been on this for a long time.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Jeff with a real dilly of a pickle there.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: That league is insanely deep

9:40	Paul Swydan: Oh by the way – a friend of mine is looking for one more fantasy league. Roto, deep rosters, Yahoo, keeper but not full dynasty, snake/ladder draft, no FAAB. if anyone has a league like that that needs a member, holler at me!

9:40	First Time Poster: Projections for Dozier in 2017? I want to like him… but for no reason I can’t seem to justify using an early pick on him. Convince me?

9:40	Paul Swydan: I cannot convince you, and would not spend an early pick on him.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: ADP at 34. I would have guessed 40. Seems right to me: http://nfbc-hosted.stats.com/mlb/adp.asp?pos=2B

9:42	Mike L: Who has a better chance to bounce back King Felix or Dallas K?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I’ll vote King Felix.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Dallas, young and pitched through injuries. I think Felix may be done or headed to the CC level of talent

9:43	Billy Beane: New York could almost definitely support a 3rd team, but how hard do you think the Yankees and Mets would fight it? I feel like the Mets would stand to lose more, but the Yankees would be able to shut it down quicker.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Oh they’d fight it tooth and nail. It would never happen.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Agree

9:44	BoJack Horseman: I hope it’s clear that this name and the many horrible things I say is a joke. Thanks for the chats, gang.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Well, it’s clear to me, anyway. I can’t speak for everyone, of course.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: /tells FBI to quit searching for Bojack

9:45	Paul Swydan: haha

9:45	Campy: If you had to pick the first team to be a seller this year (that actually isn’t already rebuilding), who would it be?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Oh, fun.

9:46	Paul Swydan: I’ll say toss up between the Tigers and Marlins.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Marlins …maybe the Royals.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, Tigers need a major rebuild

9:47	Terence: Which staff do you target on a fantasy league where you draft an entire team’s staff, rather than individual pitchers?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Oh, interesting. Cubs, Nationals, Dodgers, Red Sox, Mets, Indians.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Whoa, someone in the NL

9:47	Paul Swydan: Giants

9:48	Rallo: What are your thoughts on the use of SIERA? I really like what it represents as an improvement to FIP, but I don’t often see it implemented. Is there a reason for this?

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Cubs ……. Dodgers, Nationals

9:48	Paul Swydan: I think the main reason is that most of us don’t view it as enough of an upgrade over FIP to justify the extra explaining we have to do to the person who doesn’t visit FanGraphs 30 times a day.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: The issue with SIERA is the understanding of the components behind it. How easy is it to explain to someone. Will be an issue with DRA

9:48	Paul Swydan: I agree that it is certainly useful.

9:49	Joe: My wife is peeking over my shoulder and wondering why my questions aren’t getting answered? I think she wants to leave me for Dronefinger or First Time Poster.

9:49	Paul Swydan: Sorry Joe. Tell her to stand by her man.

9:49	5 Run Homer: How dumb is the name Dallas? I was very confused why Mike L was asking about the city of Dallas

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: And you should incorporate Simpson references for Paul

9:49	Paul Swydan: Maybe having a city named Dallas is stupid. Did you ever think of it like that?

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Or a TV show

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yeah I like Simpsons references.

9:50	Simon McPherson: Srsly? 1/3 of people wouldn’t touch Hosmer with a barge pole? guy is top 10/12 1st baseman. He is what he is. A team of Eric Hosmers wins a world series.

9:50	Paul Swydan: What say you, Jeff? Does a team of Eric Hosmer’s win the World Series. I think that’s a stretch, personally. The Hosmer-Hosmer double play combo would be pretty bad.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Lee Judge, is that you asking?

9:51	Colin: Who replaces Robertson as the CWS closer if he’s traded?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: The defense would be horrible. Go and watch his right field games

9:51	Paul Swydan: Nate Jones, probably.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Jones right? As long as he doesn’t get traded.

9:52	Guest: Rank Kayne’s Albums

9:52	Paul Swydan: No, I’m too tired.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Now that is how you get Paul’s attention

9:52	BoJack Horseman: Damn it, Paul, that didn’t need to get posted for everyone, it was just for you. Now everyone is going to think I’m a fraud and no one will read my book, and they won’t vote for me in the best Netflix show poll.

9:52	Paul Swydan: All part of my evil plan.

9:52	Jason: O/u 200 PA for Brinson in the majors this year?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Are you trying to get us to play Cistulli’s dumb over/under game? I’ll take the over.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Way over or way under. If he’s in the majors, it will be for at least 2/3 of a season.

9:53	Turd Ferguson: Can Albert get to 100 career WAR (he’s at 91.2 now)? Any more miraculous 3 WAR seasons for the machine? Miss his glory days

9:53	Paul Swydan: I want to believe.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Damn, it’s going to be close

9:53	bob: whats the baseball equivalent of the Demarcus Cousins trade?

9:54	Paul Swydan: Damn.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Who?

9:54	Paul Swydan: DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings center who was just traded to the New Orleans Pelicans

9:54	Paul Swydan: That’s a good one. The Ubaldo Jimenez trade?

9:54	Paul Swydan: But Ubaldo wasn’t that good.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Oh … that sport.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Shelby Miller

9:55	Paul Swydan: that’s the problem – Miller wasn’t that good either.

9:55	Paul Swydan: It’s closer to the Vernon Wells trade, I think.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: David Cone for Ed Hearn

9:56	Paul Swydan: Yeah that’s a good one.

9:56	Pragmatist: Would you rather have dinner with Joe Maddon, Yaseil Puig or Brandon Phillips?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Anyone but Joe Maddon.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: Dinner, Maddon. I would go partying with the other two.

9:57	Paul Swydan: I would probably pick Phillips just because of the language barrier, I suppose.

9:57	Paul Swydan: The language barrier with Puig, that is.

9:57	DJ: Do the Angels have any chance of a successful rebuild without trading Trout?

9:58	Paul Swydan: A rebuild? No. But they may have done enough retooling to sneak into a postseason berth this season.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: No, because Trout pretty much makes them a .500 team. They need some top picks

9:59	Moltar: Cousins = Kazmir for Vic Zambrano

9:59	Paul Swydan: I don’t think so. Kazmir was still a prospect, not a guy who had dominated for 6+ years.

9:59	Ryan: Gray, Paxton or Foltynewicz in a dynasty league?

9:59	Paul Swydan: Give me Gray. Give me the Ks.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Gray and hope he gets traded