FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 3/29/16 by Paul Swydan March 29, 2016 9:00 Paul Swydan: HI EVERYBODY!!!! 9:00 Paul Swydan: Last week of the offseason. Who’s psyched?!?!? 9:01 Jeff Zimmerman: Woo Hoo 9:02 Paul Swydan: Hey, so you guys know I don’t usually pimp my stuff too hard, but if you’re so inclined to read a music article, I had the chance to write one for Pitchfork last week. http://pitchfork.com/thepitch/1068-why-a-tribe-called-quests-phife-dawg-was-sports-fans-favorite-rapper/ 9:02 Charlie: After dark? I’m on the east coast, and it isn’t even dark yet. 9:02 Paul Swydan: It is now, sucka. 9:02 Don Draper: Hey Paul, what do you see Jean Segura doing this year? 9:03 Jeff Zimmerman: Playing a lot of games and running a ton. I don’t think he will be close to an average player though. 9:03 Paul Swydan: Not a ton. He’s durable. That’s nice. But he’s been a replacement player for two straight seasons. I don’t see that changing much. 9:03 Guest: Is Peraza a fantasy asset this year? In the future(top 175)? 9:03 Paul Swydan: I don’t think so. I had him in Ottoneu last year and cut him over the winter. 9:04 Jeff Zimmerman: No, I think his playing time will be limited in ’16 9:04 GB: How much more do you like Giolito vs. Berrios in a keeper league? Or is it just too early to tell? 9:04 Jeff Zimmerman: I Giolito more, but like Berrios this year as I think he will play more. 9:05 Paul Swydan: It’s definitely too early. It seems that Giolito has the higher ceiling, but he’s also had Tommy John. I don’t think that makes it a wash, but they’re pitching prospects. I wouldn’t put too much time into trying to parse them. 9:05 Hugh Jass: What do you expect out of Andrew Cashner? Can he put it together? If so, how good is is ceiling? 9:06 Paul Swydan: I think we’ve seen Cashner’s ceiling. He’s been a mid-2 WAR pitcher for three straight seasons. At a certain point, you are who you are. That’s who he is, and there’s nothing wrong with that. Maybe someday he tosses 220 innings in a season and gets up close to 4 WAR, but that’d be on the bulk, not the talent. 9:06 Jeff Zimmerman: Ceiling is a top 10 pitcher. I just don’t see him getting the defense help from the Padres ever. His velo is up 1.1 mph this spring 9:07 Michael: Who will accumulate more career WAR, Travis S. or S. Travis? 9:07 Paul Swydan: I’ll go with S. Travis just on the potential. I’m not a huge fan of Travis S. 9:07 Jeff Zimmerman: S. Travis, just a better player and I really like this question. 9:08 Paul Swydan: Yeah that was a good one. 9:08 Dave: Do you think Naquin has what it takes to stick as a starting OF in Cleveland once Brantley returns? 9:08 Paul Swydan: We’ll see. I doubt it. For a cheap team like Cleveland to promote a rookie like this means that they’re not too worried about him being a star. 9:09 Jeff Zimmerman: No, he seems to be all average and glove. Those two skills don’t look to be that great 9:09 Ryan: Is Glasnow, Giolito, Urias or Leon the best target for a mid-season, impact call-up? 9:09 Paul Swydan: Probably one of the young G’s. 9:10 Paul Swydan: Speaking of Young G’s…https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmYks8YKOZU 9:10 Jeff Zimmerman: I like Giolito more mid-Season. I think Urias could also as the Dodgers are losing pitchers left and right 9:10 Paul Swydan: Yeah, it’ll be interesting to see how much of the process the Dodgers want to stick to. They’re being tested already. 9:10 Sad Sam: Would you rather have Betts/Boegarts or Pollack/Goldschmidt for the next five years? 9:11 Paul Swydan: Betts/Bogaerts. Not even a question. You build up the middle always. So you’d rather have the shortstop over the first baseman. And Betts/Bogaerts are younger too. 9:11 Jeff Zimmerman: Ariz side. I may take Goldschmidt over both the Red Sox 9:12 Paul Swydan: Look at the Cumulative WAR graph: http://www.fangraphs.com/graphsw.aspx?players=13611,12161,9218,9256 9:13 Paul Swydan: Mookie is already halfway to Pollock’s career total, and with a five-year head start. 9:13 Paul Swydan: It’s a good question though. 9:13 Joe: I liked Man of Steel and looked forward to a sequel with just Superman that didn’t happen. Should I still see Batman 5 Superman? 9:14 Jeff Zimmerman: No opinion, haven’t seen Vs. yet 9:14 Paul Swydan: My position on this is you should see it. You need to make your own mind up. The movie wasn’t ALL bad. There were some good acting performances. It was just a frustrating experience for me, because I was able to pick it apart WHILE watching it, and that is not common for me. 9:15 Dave: 4×4 AL-only, 9 teams. With limited roster moves/reserve slots, I have to start either Joe Kelly or Martin Perez (plus 6 other SPs). Who is less scary/less likely to wreck my ERA and ratio? Should I cut one and instead pick up a non-descript RP just to be safe? 9:15 Paul Swydan: CUT JOE KELLY. CUT HIM NOW. 9:15 Paul Swydan: Sorry, I don’t like Joe Kelly. Not sure if you heard. He gave up three homers today. Joe Kelly is terrible. 9:16 Jeff Zimmerman: Agree with Paul. I don’t have the extreme hatred of Kelly he is voicing. Martin is just a better pitcher IMO. 9:16 Paul Swydan: Yeah that’s also true. 9:16 Dill: Not taking into account money, would you rather: Play 10 years in MLB and average 3-4 WAR per year, or play only one full season in which you have, without a doubt, the best single season of all time? Again, money is not a factor, only legacy. 9:16 Paul Swydan: 10 years. 9:17 Jeff Zimmerman: One year and then do something. It would be like Trout retiring after his first season. 9:17 Who_Is_Zorbist?: If Mike Trout tears his ACL tomorrow, are the Angels the worst team in baseball? Their #2 is a RHP barely pushing 82 MPH. 9:17 Otis: Is there anyway Mike Trout doesn’t soon become discontent? How much longer can Albert Pujols last, and once he’s gone, what is really left on the squad? The only hope for the future lays squarely on one man’s shoulders. And won’t he get the Lebron syndrome of being tired of being assembled with scrubs. Even when Lebron got tired, it was after a championship series loss, which Mike Trout has not even sniffed. It’s surprising how futile the front office has been in using the best asset in all of baseball. 9:18 Paul Swydan: Posted two Trout Q’s here. I’ll say that if they wouldn’t be the worst team, they’d be close. But I think we could also say that of the Reds (Votto) and Rockies (Arenado) too. 9:19 Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Angels could have made a few moves like the Mariners and really improved on the edges. Instead they are going to run out a 2nd division team. 9:19 Jeff Zimmerman: Scary thought, the Braves without Freeman 9:19 Paul Swydan: As for how quickly Trout gets angry there, he’s playing in 80 degree weather and getting paid a fortune. That is probably going to dull a lot of his anger. He’s also in a tight spot because I imagine it’d be difficult to criticize one of the best hitters of the last 30-40 years. 9:20 Paul Swydan: So he’d need to wait for a situation where Pujols was just a total shell of himself or hurt for an extended period. That might happen this year. We’ll see. 9:20 Los: So I drafted Cutch 15th overall in a 12 team league and was able to get Marte in the 5th round and Polanco in the 12th. I am a Pirate fan but was concerned about stacking so much but isn’t that value too much to pass up? 9:21 Paul Swydan: I think that’s definitely some good value on McCutchen and Marte. I’m not sure about Polanco in the 12th, and I’d be worried about having all three on the same team, but the first two are definitely defensible. 9:21 Jeff Zimmerman: I like it, but you will just know you will need to ride the highs (when facing the Brewers) and lows (facing Aerrita) 9:22 Eldridge Cleaver: I believe Kyle Schwarber will be a top 30 player in leagues where he has catcher eligibility. Do you agree? If not, can you talk me out of my position? 9:22 Paul Swydan: Sure I can: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5247&position=3B 9:23 Jeff Zimmerman: He could be or a demoted. I think his variance in output could be huge. 9:23 Jeff Zimmerman: He could pull a 2nd half Joc Pederson 9:23 MattyMo: Who are you “surprise” contenders for AL Cy young? 9:23 Paul Swydan: Don’t have any, to be honest. Unless you think Salazar or Archer counts as a surprise. 9:24 Jeff Zimmerman: Tanaka or Pineda, if they can stay healthy … big IF 9:24 Guest: Is Domingo Santana just Khris Davis? 9:24 Paul Swydan: You say that like it’s a bad thing… 9:25 Jeff Zimmerman: Good comp, I do think Santana’s defense is better 9:25 MattyMo: Weekly reader, first time queue-er…I just really want to see my name appear…thanks for hosting these! 9:25 Paul Swydan: Thanks for reading/participating in them! 9:25 Jeff Zimmerman: Alright MattyMo 9:26 Dev: I would love to understand more how analytics and projections account for (or don’t) changes in skill sets, or changes in swings. In particular, minor league projections, as it seems young players are constantly developing and changing their approaches 9:26 Paul Swydan: You want to read some stuff by Dan Szymborski and Chris Mitchell and Jared Cross. Those guys know their stuff. 9:26 Paul Swydan: Start with this: http://www.hardballtimes.com/10-lessons-i-have-learned-about-creating-a-projection-system/ 9:27 Jeff Zimmerman: Also, if you want a good place for swing mechanics, goto BaseballRellion. They just had a piece on Addison Russell’s new swing and the effects 9:28 Lance Mannion: You buying Jeff’s article on Alex Wood he is only 25 9:28 Paul Swydan: I’ve always like Alex Wood. So while I didn’t get a chance to read Jeff’s article…yes. 9:29 Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, if he can keep the velo up. 9:30 Southcoast: How long do you think J Reyes will be out? Why is MLB taking so long to decide on the length of his suspension? 9:30 Paul Swydan: MLB is waiting on Reyes’ court situation to play out. That should hopefully be resolved next week. 9:31 Paul Swydan: No matter the result of the case, I’d be surprised if Jose Reyes ever put on a Rockies uniform again. He never should have in the first place. The Rockies are getting what they deserve for not trading him when they had the chance, to be quite frank. 9:31 Jeff Zimmerman: Reyes is going to court and it will need to play out. If he is guilty, there is a good chance he could deported. 9:31 Sara : Dodgers are a lock to win ninety games? Without of course any major long-term injuries 9:32 Paul Swydan: They’re not a lock exactly because of the injury issue. Ethier is already out for an extended period, as is Brett Anderson. 9:32 Jeff Zimmerman: 60% chance on 90 or more wins 9:33 Paul Swydan: I’ll take the other 40%. Shorting the Dodgers this year. 9:33 OnSight: Expectations for Tyler White in an OBP league? 9:33 Paul Swydan: Expectations for the guy who had a .412 BABIP in Triple-A last year? Not high, I can tell you that. Hope I’m wrong. 9:34 Jeff Zimmerman: I like White quite a bit, but I am not sure how the 1B situation will play out. I think the Astros are going to try to build White’s value and then trade him off at some point 9:34 LudeBurger: who’s your top pick in as bizarro league? 9:35 Paul Swydan: Bizarro Kramer. I just didn’t care for Bizarro Jerry and Bizarro George. 9:35 Jeff Zimmerman: Bartolo Colon 9:35 Peter, Paul and Barry: Are you on the optimistic or pessimistic side for the projections of Korean Babe Ruth (Park)? 9:35 Paul Swydan: Optimistic! 9:36 Jeff Zimmerman: I am on the pessimistic side, not a ton, but I think he will underperform projections 9:36 Draft in 30: quick thoughts on J Bradley Jr. Mixed league 12 teams, points. Don’t need him as a starter but feel he could turn the corner into something pretty good this year 9:37 Paul Swydan: I am cautiously optimistic, but definitely draft him as a backup so he won’t burn you. 9:37 Jeff Zimmerman: I am not that high. I think other OFers are better to take a chance on. 9:37 Paul: I’m 100% set on trading Jose Fernandez sometime this season. Do I trade him now, or hope for a dominant start to the season first? 9:38 Paul Swydan: I’d wait for a dominant start to the season. 9:38 Jeff Zimmerman: yea, wait for the start 9:39 Peter, Paul and Barry: Jeff, any hope for Grandal coming back and continuing to break out this year? I have Mesoraco right now in my OBP league but I know a healthy Grandal could be a monster and he’s sitting on the waiver. Little concerned about that shoulder. 9:39 Paul Swydan: Jeff? 9:41 Jeff Zimmerman: Do you have DL slots, take the chance. The shoulder is an issue and he will start the season on the DL. Details are few with the Dodgers has they have a ton of injuries to go over in the manager briefing. I would take the chance, but have a backup in mind 9:41 Guest: I have both Bryant and Arenado in an OBP dynasty. Trade one for Sano? 9:42 Paul Swydan: Yeah, Arenado. He had a lower OBP last year than Cameron Maybin. 9:42 Jeff Zimmerman: Sano and pieces. You need to be looking for 2nd and 3rd round talent 9:42 Mick Eh Lobe: Do you guys buy Correa as a first rounder? Would you trade him for a nice prize if you had Trevor Story on your bench or do you really think Correa will deliver? 9:42 Paul Swydan: I’d hang onto Correa. I think he fits as a first rounder, but I would rather have him in the 2nd or 3rd. 9:43 Jeff Zimmerman: I think Correa is a 2nd rounder, but his upside is a first rounder. Story has the upside of maybe a 5th rounder 9:44 The Inbetweener: Which Ross brother has a greater WAR over the next 3 years? Over their careers? 9:44 Paul Swydan: I’ll say Tyson for both. But I like Joe. 9:45 Jeff Zimmerman: Tyson, I would like to see Tyson on a team with a good defense. 9:45 Paul Swydan: Yeah. Or good hitters. 9:45 Jonesing for Pitching: Is Story Rutledge 2.0? 9:45 Paul Swydan: He definitely could be, but we’ll give him the benefit of the doubt and say he’s better than that. 9:46 Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, but he has a nice upside. Let me look up some Story prospect comps 9:47 fish: Feels like Ozuna will either bust out in a big way or justhe bust. Which side would you guess? 9:47 Paul Swydan: Bust out. As in be good. 9:47 Dr Evil: Chances Sonny Gray is dealt this year for an underperforming “upside” starter, an A ball prospect, a few AAAA type players and some shiny rocks? 9:48 Paul Swydan: Not sure. I’ve given up trying to peg Oakland’s strategy. But I think if he gets traded, Oakland will fetch far more than that. 9:48 Byron: If you were a pitcher would you rather pitch in Coors but have elite defense at every position or pitch at Petco but have the worst defenders at every position? 9:48 Paul Swydan: Petco. Physically, it’s hard to pitch in Denver for more than a few years. 9:49 Paul Swydan: It’s why the Rockies should be helping fund college baseball in the area and drafting more local kids. Heaven forbid they actually look into a long-term strategy. 9:49 Dr Evil: Chances Aaron Hicks end up with the highest WAR among NYY OF’s this year? 9:50 Jeff Zimmerman: Using MLB’s grades for Story 9:50 Paul Swydan: Pretty decent, probably. All depends on the playing time. I’ll vote Gardner for now. 9:50 Jeff Zimmerman: Here are his top comps: 9:50 Jeff Zimmerman: Aledmys DiazJ.T. RealmutoWillson ContrerasWilly AdamesBrandon Nimmo 9:50 Paul Swydan: That’s not exactly an encouraging set of comps. 9:51 Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, not at all 9:51 Phil: Keeper deadline tonight… 12-team standard 5×5 25-man roster… I can keep two of Price, Sale and Posey. I was leaning to Sale and Posey (given the dearth of quality catchers), then maybe just Sale, then maybe nobody as none may actually be 1st rounders. Thoughts? 9:51 Paul Swydan: I’d keep Sale and Posey for sure. 9:51 Jeff Zimmerman: Agree 9:52 Chicago Mark: I know the Trout/Angels problems seem clear. But how hard is it really to do better as GM with not just positional needs pulling at you? Ownership and $$ and coaching are constantly involved almost everywhere I’d guess. 9:53 Paul Swydan: Oh, there’s no question that the Angels hands were severely tied by Arte Moreno pretending he knows things about baseball and signing Pujols, Hamilton and Wilson long term. None of those contracts have worked out that well. 9:53 Jeff Zimmerman: And the worst farm system anyone can remember 9:54 Paul Swydan: Yeah that hasn’t helped. 9:54 Cam: Least likely to offend anyone deliberately – JJ Watt or Mike Trout? 9:54 Paul Swydan: Trout. 9:55 Jeff Zimmerman: Trout. By the way, how is the weather? 9:55 Chicago Mark: Need to fill in for Darvish in first half. Who do you like more, Valasquez, Eovaldi, Juan Nicasio or Cleveland Anderson? expecting the latter two get gigs. 9:55 Paul Swydan: Velasquez probably. 9:56 Jeff Zimmerman: Valasquez or Nicasio, both have upside, but get ready to move on if they stick 9:57 Travis: Staying with the Story theme – are you guys bigger fans of him or Ketel Marte? I’m stuck with one of them. 9:58 Jeff Zimmerman: I think Story just a bit better, but Marte could help with steals if needed 9:58 Paul Swydan: Marte has already debuted in the majors and hit above average. He’s also a year younger. I’d say Marte. 9:59 Joc: Scouts reporting that Joc Pederson looks lost this spring. Still striking out a ton. Thoughts on his near and long term outlook? 9:59 Paul Swydan: I think he just needs to be thrown out there and trusted for a season. The last thing he needs is to be yanked in and out of the lineup. Either he can be an effective major leaguer with the Ks or he can’t, but you need a little while to figure it out. 10:01 Jeff Zimmerman: If he has nothing to work on, keep him in the majors. If the Dodgers want to make a change, send him to the minors work through it. I didn’t have high hopes, so the struggles didn’t surprise me. 10:01 Trainman: Do you guys see ellsbury as a bounce back candidate? AL only league this weekend, draft auction. 10:01 Paul Swydan: Yeah, I can’t see him being done this quickly. He might not be “Jacoby Ellsbury” again, but I don’t see him as a scrub either. 10:02 Jeff Zimmerman: I think it will more the recent Ellsbury. Peak Ellsbury is done, but he will be an useful player 10:03 Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, we need to go to bed if we’re going to be useful players tomorrow, so that’s going to do it. Thanks as always for hanging out. Next week. REG-U-LAR SEA-SON BASE-BALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL. 10:04 Jeff Zimmerman: And you will have just Paul next week as I will be at the Royals game. 10:05 Paul Swydan: But there will be baseball. Night!