FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 4/18/17

12:44

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 7-8 pm ET matchup?

CHW (Gonzalez) vs. NYY (Severino) (7.2% | 14 votes)

BOS (Johnson) vs. TOR (Stroman) (13.4% | 26 votes)

BAL (Gausman) vs. CIN (Arroyo) (4.6% | 9 votes)

DET (Fulmer) vs. TB (Andriese) (10.8% | 21 votes)

PHI (Eflin) vs. NYM (Wheeler) (4.1% | 8 votes)

WAS (Scherzer) vs. ATL (Foltynewicz) (59.5% | 115 votes)

Total Votes: 193

12:47

Paul Swydan:

What is tonight’s best 8 pm ET and later matchup?

MIL (Nelson) vs. CHC (Anderson) (3.9% | 7 votes)

CLE (Tomlin) vs. MIN (Hughes) (5.0% | 9 votes)

LAA (Nolasco) vs. HOU (Musgrove) (2.8% | 5 votes)

PIT (Kuhl) vs. STL (Leake) (5.0% | 9 votes)

SF (Cain) vs. KC (Hammel) (2.2% | 4 votes)

TEX (Darvish) vs. OAK (Triggs) (66.2% | 118 votes)

ARI (Miller) vs. SD (Cosart) (4.4% | 8 votes)

COL (Freeland) vs. LAD (Ryu) (8.4% | 15 votes)

MIA (Chen) vs. SEA (Gallardo) (1.6% | 3 votes)

Total Votes: 178

12:49

Paul Swydan:

What is your favorite work by Lendrick Lamar

C4 (0% | 0 votes)

The Kendrick Lamar EP (0% | 0 votes)

Overly Dedicated (0% | 0 votes)

Section.80 (2.6% | 5 votes)

good kid, m.A.A.d city (20.9% | 40 votes)

To Pimp a Butterfly (9.9% | 19 votes)

untitled unmastered. (0% | 0 votes)

DAMN. (3.1% | 6 votes)

Don’t make me choose! (7.3% | 14 votes)

I have never listened to Kendrick Lamar (56.0% | 107 votes)

Total Votes: 191

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Jeff Zimmerman: Hi

9:01	Andrew: How quickly are projections updated? Do depth charts playing time allocations take some time to catch up? How about ZIPS/Steamer?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Not sure about ZiPS/Steamer, but the depth charts projections update usually within 30-60 minutes of when they’re changed.

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Depth charts as news comes out.

9:02	Dres : Was offered Goldy and Porcello for sale and Thames. What to do?!

9:02	Jeff Zimmerman: Steamer gets updates, but not sure when. I will ask

9:02	Paul Swydan: I’d hang on to Sale and Thames, personally.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: I will take the Goldy side. I’ll hold onto the best hitter, but this is close

9:03	Paul Swydan: I worry about the effect of the humidor – shameless plug for Alan Nathan’s THT article yesterday.

9:03	Paul Swydan: If Goldschmidt is about to lose 25% of his home runs at Chase Field, it’s going to be harder to justify him as a top tier hitter.

9:04	Six Ten: Lendrick?

9:04	Paul Swydan: You know what I meant damnit!

9:04	Edwin: Does Adam Frazier get solid playing time w/ Marte out? How soon before we see Meadows?

9:05	Paul Swydan: I believe the prevailing opinion earlier today was a mix of Frazier, Meadows and McCutchen in center. Meadows, I think, will be up the second he gets hot at Triple-A.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: I’m not sure how the playing time will work but the Pirates should have a plan. They would have know the suspension was coming

9:05	Paul Swydan: So far, he’s got a 35 wRC+ at Triple-A.

9:05	Paul Swydan: Yup, that’s true.

9:05	Dakota McKee : Why do so many players who test positive for PEDs feign ignorance or their using? Do they feel only their teammates are owed an apology? Afraid of backlash from the media? Just getting obnoxious from their agent/lawyer? What gives?

9:07	Paul Swydan: To be honest, the player doesn’t owe anyone other than his employer an explanation. But please don’t underestimate a) how much is lost in translation at a cultural level and also b) how dumb/shortsighted some of these guys are.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: I think some is lawyer/agent talk. It may leave some doubt with someone.

9:07	Paul Swydan: Also, feigning ignorance the way people like Andy Pettitte did has proven to be a successful strategy. If it’s not baroque…

9:07	mjt: Do you buy the Tigers as a division leader?

9:07	Paul Swydan: Sure.

9:08	Paul Swydan: They just have very little margin for error.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: If healthy, they could win the division. I just don’t see the health hold. Also, they are getting J.D. back

9:08	benj: Am I looking at this wrong or are Keon Broxton’s plate discipline stats going in the wrong direction? Looks like he’s missing more strikes and biting at more balls.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Too early to worry about that.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: maybe

9:09	Zonk: Is Avisail Garcia finally forcing us to pay attention to him?

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: swing rates stabilize in ~60 opportunites

9:10	Jeff Zimmerman: No … don’t follow the league leader in singles

9:10	Paul Swydan: He is, yes. The question is whether he can hold our attention now that he has it.

9:10	Paul Swydan: You never followed Ichiro?

9:10	Lightning: Pretty bad night for pitching matchups eh

9:11	Paul Swydan: Yeah, though I thought Freeland vs. Ryu would be getting more heat than it is. SMDH Rockies fans.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Ichiro never posted a .543 BABIP

9:11	Paul Swydan: Oh snap.

9:11	Lightning: So Home runs are on pace to be the most ever. More convinced the balls have been doctored. Let’s say this is true. Would the teams know and have to agree to it? If they did not, could teams have any legal action against MLB? I think this would help some teams more than others.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Also, just heard back from Steamer and it updates every night. I know it takes into account velo changes.

9:13

Paul Swydan: I don’t think teams would have needed to be informed beforehand, but if it was a deliberate plot by the Commissioner’s Office, I would think word would have filtered out at some level. As for legal action, I’m not sure if the teams can sue the league or not. Even if they can, I’m guessing that would never happen.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Supposedly, the balls last year were withing spec. There is more wiggle room in design than expected

9:14	MattyMo: Favorite position player to watch on tv is? How about pitcher?

9:14	Paul Swydan: Xander Bogaerts and … I don’t know. Drawing a blank on pitcher.

9:14	Paul Swydan: Kershaw, I guess.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Trout probably, as to be someone who can hit and field. Colon for pitchers. He gives us old big boned guys hope.

9:15	Big Tuna: Who gets called up first: Barreto or Meadows?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Will guess Meadows. The A’s have no reason to rush Barretto.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: But at least Barreto is hitting.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: 144 wRC+

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: and a 31% K%

9:16	Big Tuna: Do you think Dyson gets another shot to close in Texas this year if he gets his act together or no?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I suppose that depends on what the next man up does. I’ll say no, but bullpens are fluid.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. I think he hurting in the elbow and/or shoulder. Velo and spin down.

9:17	MattyMo: If you are building a pitcher with anyone’s 3 pitches, what are they? (For example Zach Britton’s sinker, Fernando Rodney’s splange etc.)

9:18	Paul Swydan: Pedro Martinez’s fastball. Pedro Martinez’s curveball. Pedro Martinez’s changeup. 🙂

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Chapman’s fastball, Kluber Curve/slider thing and …..

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: hell, Britton’s sinker would be great since it is great by itself

9:19	Big Tuna: Does anybody have any idea what’s going on w Beltre? I know it’s a grade 1 strain, but there doesn’t seem to be any indication of how long he’s out

9:19	Paul Swydan: My guess is it’s hard for them to know because they probably have to chain Beltre to the trainer’s table to keep him off the field.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: They really have no idea, especially at Beltre’s age

9:20	joe pera: What advice do you give a high school kid that wants to be a scout when he is older

9:20	Paul Swydan: Go to games, sit with the scouts, ask questions. Start writing to the teams, ask them to sponsor you for Scout School.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Go to as many scoutable games as you can and talk with scouts.

9:21

Mr. Nor’easter: Am I crazy to start Ryu tonight? H2H and I may run out of starters (can’t be sure that Manaea and Duffy start Thursday). His first two starts were in bad places (Chi and Col) and I think he will get through five now. If Duffy and Manaea start Thurs., I won’t need him, but Oak. and KC and being non-commital.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: Some good hints in the book “Work in Baseball”

9:21	Paul Swydan: Starting against a Rockies team on the road is never a crazy idea.

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s just as good as anyone else

9:22	Paul Swydan: Though I will say that now that they’ve been away from Coors Field for a few days, they may have adjusted back to sea level pitching.

9:22	Marshall: What’s a good way to put starting pitchers into historical context since the usage has changed some much, even compared to just a few years ago?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: My Ryu write up: y

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/old-pitchers-with-fresh-starts-mccart…

9:23	Paul Swydan: It’s a really tough question, but the best thing I can say is use the minus stats – ERA-, FIP-, xFIP-, etc.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: That’s about it. It’s getting tougher

9:24	Marshall: Do relative ERA measures (e.g., ERA+) unfairly hurt current starting pitchers because the league ERA is suppressed to a large extent by relievers, who tend to have lower ERAs and make up an increasingly large portion of total innings pitched?

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: But the pitchers aren’t going through the lineup as much which should lower their ERAs also. It’s a pretty tough question to answer.

9:25

Paul Swydan: It’s really an interesting question. I don’t know what the right idea is. I think it could be the other way too. Perhaps pitchers from previous generations were capable of throwing in the high 90s all the time, but the style was more that they should throw at 90% of their velocity. Maybe that’s where “reached back” for more velocity comes from, because those starters were never throwing as hard as they could, whereas pitchers today always are.

9:26	Hannah Hochevar: I’m worried Carlos Gomez is going back to his hack-tastic Astros ways. Will he remember the lessons of last year or is he, like the rest of us, doomed to repeat his mistakes?

9:26	Paul Swydan: I mean, he’s gotten this far with his current approach, I’m not sure why we would expect him to change now.

9:26	Paul Swydan: By current I mean the hacktastic ways of his career in general. Sorry.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: He’s at his career levels in swing% and contact%. He is who he is.

9:28	Not Lendrick Lamar: What would Clayton Kershaw’s season line be if he threw 50% of his games at Coors?

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: Around the same with an ERA about 1 run higher

9:28	Paul Swydan: Higher walk rate, lower strikeout rate, add at least one run to his ERA, but he’d still be really great.

9:29	Hannah Hochevar: Hi fellas. Was thinking Joe Kelly could be a vibrant multi-inning force for k’s, but he’s yet to record one, even throwing 100. Where does he go from here?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: AAA?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Honestly, if he is going to keep striking out only one out of every 30 batters, his destination is Triple-A. That’s untenable.

9:30	Zeff Jimmerman: Rich Hill was just dropped in my 10 team league, he’s a must add if I have an open DL spot, right?

9:30	Paul Swydan: I think so, yes.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes

9:30	Andre Eithier’s Thinning Hair: Is Kendrick Lamar your Jesus? If that’s too sensitive, which was your favorite work of his? Just saw him live (amazing)

9:31	Paul Swydan: GKMC is easily my favorite. And Jesus is a bit strong. That goes to Q-Tip, always and forever.

9:31	Andre Eithier’s Thinning Hair: Are hitters with low walk rates inherently more volatile producers? Thinking Andrew Toles, who swings at everything

9:32	Paul Swydan: They are if they can’t consistently generate a high BABIP. Some guys are able to, but that’s generally a smaller subset of hitters.

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: I know Bill Petti has written a lot on the subject

9:32	Flo: Is Gary Sanchez for Duffy fair? 5by5 standard yahoo. What side do you prefer?

9:33	Paul Swydan: I’d rather have Sanchez.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Sanchez

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: But fair

9:33	Brandon M: I didn’t care for Humble at first. Repeated listenings made me fall in love with it.

9:34	Paul Swydan: His lyrics are so layered that you really have to try to withhold judgment on any of his songs until you listen a bunch of times and let the meanings sink in.

9:34

Miles: Any worries about Josh Bell in the early going? It seemed that preseason, many were thinking Bell would move towards his projectable power while maintaining his hit tool. However, he has gone the opposite way; failing to produce even the little power he had shown last year and in the high minors as well as a declining hit tool compared to last year.

9:35	Paul Swydan: I’m only worried about him in the sense that Hurdle needs to win this year to keep his job, and Bell might end up a casualty on the bench if he doesn’t produce soon. With Marte’s suspension, that worry may be less warranted than before. We’ll see.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I have him graded out with league average Contact% and Above average power (using StatCast metrics)

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is fine

9:36	Marcus Banks: How encouraged should I be by Luis Severino’s last two outings?

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Some … I was completely off to start the season. I still think he is a RP, but he is making it work with two pitches so far.

9:37	Paul Swydan: I like Severino. I thought they gave up on him too quickly last year. If you look at his player page, his FIP and FIP- were basically the same in ’15 and ’16.

9:38	Travis: You’re about see see Freddie hit a HR off of Scherzer. Watch.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: I hope not

9:38	Paul Swydan: This didn’t happen (yet) but I appreciate Travis’ enthusiasm.

9:38

WHIP Appeal: Trying to decide what to do with Arrietta. Def, too early to be freaking out, but I always like to move guys before they become problems down the road (keeper league). Think he can remain effective with diminished velocity a la Verlander, or does this, in your opinion, portend to something more worrisome–injury, etc.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Well, I was bearish on Arrieta all offseason. So I’m fine with you trading him now.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Trade if you can, might have to wait for the right time with his value up

9:39	Joe: So, Trey Mancini has hit 10 fly balls in his career and 7 of them have been homers. No question, just sayin

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Truth

9:40	Paul Swydan: I’m sure he’ll maintain that ratio. Definitely keep Hyun Soo Kim glued to the bench.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Who, Severino with 11% SwStr% and 35% K%. Normally K% = 2*SwStr%. Regression coming

9:40

bob: how does Marte’s suspension affect the Pirates cap? Since he’s missing half a season without pay, do the pirates have that money now to use on someone else? say marte was making 10 mil, could the pirates go sign angel pagan for a one year slightly less than 5 mil deal and not raise their cap at all?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I don’t think they have more money to play with, no, but I’ve been wrong before. Also, there is no salary cap, and the Pirates have never been close to the luxury tax, so it seems like a moot point.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure

9:42	Dakota McKee : Mets seem gunshy about taking their sp past 90 pitches

9:42	Paul Swydan: They’ll figure it out one of these years.

9:42	Dakota McKee : Mets seem gun-shy about taking their sp past 85-90 pitches. Are they better off with an 8-man bullpen or a Chris Devenski style multi-inning reliever to fill in the gaps? (Note: not Rafael Montero)

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: They have no clue what they are doing. They may be the worst FO in the majors.

9:43	Paul Swydan: There’s the whole question, sorry. No one is better served by an 8-man bullpen.

9:43	…: Two of my favorite players (Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks) have had bad starts with bad peripherals. Should I be worried?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes on Conteras, nothing going right, worse contact issues than Buxton

9:44	History: Would you pick Ken Griffey Jr or Pedro Martinez in a rookie real life draft?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Pedro for sure.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Griffey

9:45	Paul Swydan: BOOOOO

9:45	Dynasty Freakshows: 450$ contracts dynasty. How many years do you extend Thor for 40$ given that team has great young mix of elite studs (Trout, altuve, Beni, Dahl, Story, Gary, Judge, Villar, YoMo, Brinson, Nola etc) and all except few are single digits in terms of extension value?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t go past 3 years with Thor. He’s going to break at some point.

9:45	Paul Swydan: See earlier comments about the Mets being bad at pitcher management.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: 3 to 5. You could buy his TJS seasons with the 5 year contract

9:46	Christian: Ever since I saw your pre-chat question I’ve been listening to DAMN. on repeat. Not even mad.

9:46	Paul Swydan: 🙂

9:46	Tvators: Kepler, J. Bell or Frazier, H2H points leagues??

9:47	Paul Swydan: I’ll still roll with Bell.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Kepler based off job security.

9:47	Fred: Should I be worried about my Dbacks batters with the humidor? Someone who hits 25 HR hits 20? 15? But target Greinke right?

9:48	Paul Swydan: I think it’s fair to be worried. Read Alan Nathan’s article yesterday at THT: http://www.hardballtimes.com/a-humidor-at-chase-field-whats-up-with-th…

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: No, 25% in park, 12.5% overall

9:49	Joe: All time fantasy draft first round: go!

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: Bonds

9:49	Paul Swydan: Eh, not tonight. I’m not prepared. Also, I’d probably annoy everyone since I wouldn’t draft players from before 1947.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: They played ball then?

9:50	Travis: Looks like Scherzer is probably done. He didn’t want none of Freddie in the Ninth up 2-0 with Ender and Dansby on base. He knows what would happen.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Bless you, Travis.

9:50	Bell: Re: redrafts: Kershaw or Longoria in a 2006 redo?

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Kershaw

9:51	Paul Swydan: That’s a tough one. The easy one is ANYONE ELSE on the planet over Greg Reynolds.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Still not over it.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Still don’t understand how Bill Schmidt kept his job after that draft.

9:52	Vinny Chase: If I trade Darvish or Kluber for a bat (needed), how do we feel about a rotation of Darvish or Kluber, Tanaka, Carrasco, Duffy, Nola and one of Shoe/Manaea/Pineda/J.Ross? H2h 12 team points league.

9:52	Paul Swydan: I like that rotation.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: it should be fine,. Be active on WW as some have IP limits.

9:53	Miles: I agree that the Marte suspension lengthens his leash considerably. At least he still has plate discipline.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Well, my answer is vague. It may lengthen the leash for Bell, but it may ALSO lengthen the leash for Hurdle. It’s not his fault Marte got busted. So unless the Pirates are now in fire sale mode, that suspension might have bought Hurdle another season.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: OK …..

9:54	Paul Swydan: was vague

9:54	Larry: Okay to dump the rotting carcass of Adrian Gonzalez in shallow 10-team for (insert hot potential breakout hitter here)?

9:54	Paul Swydan: In a 10-teamer, yeah, I’m OK with that.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, Travis Shaw if available

9:55	Southpaw the fuzzy alligator : Can somebody write about Avisail Garcia?

9:55	Paul Swydan: Let’s give it another week or two.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: .543 BABIP

9:55	David D: I had extra sp and traded Salazar for Bautista , needed a bat will I regret it?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: no

9:55	Paul Swydan: I mean, who knows, but I think that’s a defensible trade.

9:57	Richard: Between the new 10-day DL and his persistent blister issues, will Rich Hill set the record for most discrete trips to the DL in a single season?

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes … my Tout Wars team ERA dropped under 6. Improvement

9:57	Paul Swydan: I’m excited to find out.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: He could

9:57	Nick V: Do you think Trevor Bauer will ever figure out his command? Some days, it seems like he’s close. Some days it looks like he’s not even facing the plate when he throws.

9:57	Paul Swydan: I do not, no. Too busy playing with his drone.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, thinking too much

9:58	Minty: Think Honeywell debuts before September?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I do, yes.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, if he is pitching fine

9:58	Ryan: Suppose Donaldson comes off the DL and hits like his old self; what kind of package could he fetch at the trade deadline?

9:59	Paul Swydan: An immense package, but it’s a little early for that kind of thought experiment, even with Toronto’s slow start.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure on his contract … looking