FanGraphs After Dark Chat - 5/10/16

9:03	Paul Swydan: OK let’s do this!

9:04	Brett: As a Boston fan, I see Teheran as a perfect fit for us since he’s young, affordable and under team control until 2020. What would we have to give to Atlanta to get Teheran?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Not much. I’m not big on Teheran. He’s league average in the NL, and I expect he would be worse than that in the AL. Also, while he’s young, his fastball has already lost 2 mph, and if it loses 2 more, he’ll basically be done.

9:05	AJ Preller: Are pieces like Melvin Upton, Matt Kemp, Andrew Cashner, and Derek Norris even trade-able? What would it take to see deals take place?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Upton has rebuilt his trade value some, and Kemp probably goes if you pay his salary. Shields and Cashner definitely have value, especially given how little is going to be on the free agent market.

9:06	Roger: What could the Reds get at the deadline for Zack Cozart?

9:07	Paul Swydan: I doubt they get a ton. While he’s still under team control, he’s also 30.

9:07	Ryan: Who contributes more value (or perhaps more accurately, subtracts less value) for his major league team this year: Tim Lincecum or Joe Nathan

9:07	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Lincecum.

9:08	Roger: Considering current on-field talent, farm system depth, and payroll constraints, which team is in a worse position: the Diamondbacks or the Angels?

9:08	Paul Swydan: The Angels.

9:08	Ryan: UZR says Carlos Correa is the worst defensive short stop in the majors, and it’s not even close. Is that ranking legitimate, and if so, does Correa move to second or third in the next year or two?

9:09	Paul Swydan: It’s not legitimate yet, give it time. Same goes for the position switch. Give him time to prove conclusively that he can’t play shortstop.

9:09	John Candy: Starting to really worry about Archer. Would you trade him for Urias and Trea Turner in a 12 team mixed league where you only keep 8? Is that selling too low?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I think this depends entirely on your situation. If you can only keep 8, then keeping Turner AND Urias means that you’re going to be in rebuild mode. If that’s where you are, go for it. It’s definitely not selling low if you can get those two players for him.

9:10	Andrew: What type of trade value does Swihart have now? Iirc he could have been a centerpiece for Hamels a year ago. Anything like that still possible with him?

9:10	Paul Swydan: No, not a chance. Not while they’re pushing him out to left field.

9:10	Matt: Felix Hernandez and Ben Revere for Jose Abreu? Decent trade, or do I need to offer more for abreu?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I think you need more.

9:11	Stenzy: How is the Shark all of sudden so great now that he is on the Giants? And most of his starts have been on the road.

9:11	Paul Swydan: It’s more that he just had a down year last year. He’s always been pretty good.

9:12	N.W. enO.: Which side are you on? Beltre/Jansen for Donaldson?

9:12	Paul Swydan: That’s tough. I’d probably take the Beltre/Jansen side if you’re OK with Beltre being a bit of a health risk.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: If you really need saves, B/J

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: and hi everyone

9:13	Ben: What’s your take on Maeda? Are hitters catching on or his troubles in adjusting to MLB? Think that he will bounce back to some success?

9:13	Paul Swydan: Yes, I think he will be a solid starter. #2/#3

9:13	Noel: Odor gets hit with an 8 game suspension. Is it 1 or 2 if he wiffs on that right hook?

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Hitters are catching on a bit and I see him as a Wacha type pitcher

9:14	Paul Swydan: No, I think he probably gets 5-6 if he misses. The intent is the biggest thing.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he would have gotten at least five with that swing

9:14	Paul Swydan: As The Undefeated pointed out today, Odor has done that exact same shove/punch combo in an on-field fight before.

9:14	Catcherless: Any reason to hold onto Swihart in a Dynasty League?

9:15	Paul Swydan: I’d hold onto him through the trade deadline just in case. Sure seems like the Sox want him anywhere but Boston.

9:15	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, really depends on the number of keepers in the league.

9:15	OddBall Herrera: Who do you like for 2017 and beyond between Benintendi and Mazara (fantasy)?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Mazara is closer, so I’d have to say him, but both are good choices.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: Mazara

9:16	Tim: Is Berrios worth holding on to without an NA spot on roster?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Not in a redraft league, no.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope, not right now

9:17	Phil: Which SS situation would u prefer : Story or a Kang / Villar platoon?

9:18	Paul Swydan: All hail President Kang!

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Kang/Villar

9:18	Roger: Who has been the most disappointing prospect in the minors this year (i.e., excluding Buxton and Berrios)?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Who has been the most disappointing besides the most disappointing?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: All the hurt pitchers

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: Which all seems to by on TDGX team

9:20	Paul Swydan: Ryan McMahon has had quite the slow start.

9:21	Paul Swydan: Also, really displeased with how Swihart has been shunted aside.

9:21	Trainman: I read Jeffs piece on Russell Martin today, I am still holding hope he snaps out of his funk, but he is starting to feel like a sunk cost. Do you guys think he will figure it out and get to 15 HRs and a .750 OPS?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I have faith. Martin has been counted out before.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: No on 15 HRs, but the OPS seems workable

9:22	Tim: Thoughts on Bauer? is he finally getting it together?

9:23	Paul Swydan: He seems better, but hitters are swinging less overall, and less both in and out of the zone. I’d like to see at least his O-Swing% be higher.

9:23	Paul Swydan: But, so far, so good.

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: I need to see a half season to believe. I have been burnt too many times in the past

9:23	Paul Swydan: Infield in strategy burns again, Jeff. Guess John Farrell didn’t read your piece in last year’s THT Annual.

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: He could be a NASCAR driver with the number of corners he’s turned

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: It really doesn’t work

9:24	Anthony: Wait…what did I miss w/ Swihart? Why is everyone saying the Red Sox want him out of town?

9:25	Paul Swydan: They sent him down after 6 games when he had a .391 OBP and they have had him start playing left field in Pawtucket, even though the reason he was supposedly sent down was to work on his catcher defense.

9:26	hscer: Better president: Nixon or Nixon’s head?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Like you had to ask!

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: Nixon for the dual peace signs

9:27	Jim: is piscotty enough to get david price

9:27	Paul Swydan: I certainly wouldn’t think so.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not really

9:28	Battah, Battah, Battah: Really impt. Need hitting in very deep 16 team redraft. Was offered Corey Dickerson for Matt Andriese. I know Dicker has been in a terrible BA slump esp vs Lefties. Thots on Dickerson rest of year? Same owner has Bour. Bour any better? Thanks.

9:28	Paul Swydan: I like Dickerson better. He’ll turn it around.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I think I would ride out Dickerson

9:29	Trainman: Over under 35 homers for Byung Ho Park?

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: Under, but it is a good number IMO

9:30	Paul Swydan: What Jeff said.

9:30	Danny Almonte: All of baseball is thrown into a draft. Which current team has the most 1st round draft picks?

9:31	Paul Swydan: Probably Cubs or Dodgers. Maybe Red Sox.

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Dodgers

9:31	PL: If Rich Hill keeps up his current rate, what would he fetch in this market?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: $10M

9:32	Paul Swydan: So, I’m tempted to say a lot, but he’s old. Might be able to get 1 top 50 prospect + one top 150 prospect.

9:32	Stevo: Melvin Upton is outperforming Justin Upton. What a time to be alive.

9:32	Paul Swydan: Just like the old days!

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: I wonder what the Vegas odds would have been on that happening?

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: 25 to 1?

9:34	Glass Joe Roider: Will Smith and now Garrett Richards attempting rehab v. the cut. Any thoughts on the success of people who go this route?

9:34	Paul Swydan: Jeff knows better than me, but they usually fail. Tanaka is an exception, though it’s expected that at some point he’ll still need the surgery.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: Few are successful, but Wainwright, Tanaka, and Ervin Santana all at least made it a few seasons.

9:35	Trainman: What are your thoughts with Odors suspension? I think it’s just right. I was guessing 10 max.

9:36	Paul Swydan: It’s fine. It is what he had coming based on prior incidents/suspensions.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: Seems fine without a league warning they were going to be harsher.

9:37	geoff: starting pineda tonite in zona?

9:37	Paul Swydan: Roll the dice. Don’t be afraid in May. Being afraid is for July or August.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, rolled de la Rosa in Colorado last week and came up good.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Rubby

9:38	Snid: The NBA lottery is rigged. What say you?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Rigged.

9:39	Paul Swydan: There’s really no upside to it not being rigged.

9:39	Paul Swydan: From the league’s perspective.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I heard an interesting comment today that even if it wasn’t rigged, there was a 60% chance people would say it was after tonight

9:39	Paul Swydan: Ha.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Count me in the 60%.

9:39	Trainman: Newsflash: Thor is awesome. Happy mets fan here.

9:40	Paul Swydan: It was, but Thor 2: The Dark World was pretty bad.

9:41	Big Mike: What do you see as Matt Bush’s upside?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I think this is it. He made the majors. Everything after this is gravy.

9:42	Jeff Zimmerman: Truthfully, not really sure.

9:42	Coach : Jon Gray startable in all non-Coors games?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I think he’s startable in all games, Coors or not.

9:43	Paul Swydan: But yes, definitely the non-Coors games.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, depending on the league depth.

9:43	Danny Almonte: Mentioned an article about infield in. Could you please provide a link for that?

9:44	Paul Swydan: http://www.amazon.com/Hardball-Times-Annual-2015-11/dp/1503263908/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1416400640&sr=8-2&keywords=the+hardball+times+baseball+annual+2015

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: Nope: http://www.amazon.com/Hardball-Times-Annual-2014-10/dp/1493711873

9:44	Paul Swydan: Really?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I’m getting up to check now.

9:45	Paul Swydan: No I checked it was def the 2015 Annual

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: OK, I thought 2014 was two back, my bad

9:46	Paul Swydan: All good!

9:46	BeckyWitGudHair: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/troy-tulowitzkis-trade-value/ mid May last year Dave said tulo was worth thor, matz and Rosario without the Rockies even paying down the contract. I want what he was smoking.

9:46	Paul Swydan: First – We’re all going to be wrong sometimes. That comes with the territory.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Second – Tulo’s decline and Thor’s ascension both happened faster than anyone anticipated.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Thor was not Thor then.

9:47	Paul Swydan: Third – Nice screen name.

9:47	Mike: Strongest arm in baseball?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Cespedes?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Cespedes and Puig are the first two that come to mind.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: I have heard Gallo’s is also insane

9:48	B.B. Rodriguez: If Odor had punched Mike Trout like that does he get less than 20 games.

9:48	Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, doesn’t matter IMO

9:49	Will: Do you expect Wainwright to get better? Is he over the hill?

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I could see him get a bit better once he figures out the best mix of pitches at this new talent level

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yes, definitely. His LOB% is 57% right now, and his BABIP is .344. He might not be great anymore, but he’s definitely been a little unlucky.

9:50	Ken Erdedy: With a staff of Carrasco/Keuchel/Nola/Smyly/VV/Eickhoff/Kendricks/Conley/Berrios/Eovaldi/Pineda in a 12 team 5×5 H2H, would you drop anyone to stash Taillon?

9:50	Paul Swydan: Ya you’re fine to drop one of the two Yankees.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: or Kendricks

9:51	Richie: Wow. I cite Nolan Ryan as a guy who chose rehab rather than cut, and even that doesn’t get posted. Man am I being shunned. I’m so proud!

9:52	Paul Swydan: Not being shunned, I didn’t even see that one. There are tons of comments/questions in the queue tonight. Don’t be so sensitive.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: Well, next time do pee is Paul’s Wheaties

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: don’t

9:52	Paul Swydan: Also, specifically on Ryan, I don’t think that’s a good comp. Science has improved a great deal since Ryan’s time. His decision was probably closer to 50/50 than it is today.

9:52	Ryan: How long can the Phillies stay in the NL East race?

9:53	Paul Swydan: They can stay in it all season. I don’t think they’ll end up netting a playoff berth as is though.

9:54	Jeff Zimmerman: All-star break, I do think they may be buyers at the deadline picking up some contracts for a run next season.

9:55	Stevo: The last time I saw a great hitter like Justin Upton vastly underperform, it was Adam Dunn in 2011. Actually, Upton has a worse WRC+ (52 to Dunn’s 60). Any idea why he can’t bounce back? That 38.5% K rate is alarming.

9:56	Paul Swydan: Well, he’s adjusting to the AL. I’m going to give it another month, but, yes, I’m a little alarmed.

9:56	Jeff Zimmerman: He should bounce back some, but I wrote on Dunn’s bounce back chances back then and players don’t bounce all the way back

9:57	Paul Swydan: The swing %’s are the same, but the contact% is lower.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Basically the same thing which happened to Melvin

9:58	Jared: What is Drury doing? Do you believe?

9:59	Paul Swydan: I always love players named Drury.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: I believe some but not all.

10:00

Jeff Zimmerman: here is the Dunn article: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/adam-dunns-2nd-half-rebound/

10:00

Paul Swydan: As for Brandon Drury, I’d love it if he could draw a few more walks.

10:01

Paul Swydan: I’d also love it if I wasn’t so exhausted, but hey, someone has to take my son to T Ball practice.

10:01

Paul Swydan: So, until next week, dear readers, we must leave you. Be safe on those internets!

10:01

Jeff Zimmerman: Bye

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG

FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/10/16