FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/10/16

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Paul Swydan: Let’s do this.

Runs Allowed Dickey: Am I ownable in 12-team mixed leagues?

Jeff Zimmerman: Chatting from my back yard tonight. At least until the bugs run me off.

Paul Swydan: I would say no.

Jeff Zimmerman: Probably not unless it is certain 2-start weeks

Jake : I’m assuming Avisail Garcia is still a very below avg DH and his 132 wRC+ is just due to a really good week or can I get my hopes up just a little bit with a higher fly ball rate and .205 ISO?

Jeff Zimmerman: I like that the production bump had some power behind it, not just BABIP driven

Paul Swydan: I think hopes can be moderately raised. His BABIP is reasonable, his O-swing% is at a career low, and his SwStr% is down from the last two years.

Paul Swydan: He’s been so bad in the past that it’s hard to let your guard down, but so far so good.

Nate: If you were Clint Robinson, would you be mad that Bryce Harper’s antics stole the show, or would you not care at all?

Paul Swydan: I wouldn’t care in the slightest.

Jeff Zimmerman: Not at all

Gary: Who do you like better Jose Fernandez or Stephen Strasburg?

Paul Swydan: Now THAT’S a poll question.

Jeff Zimmerman: One game next week, Jose Fernandez

Jeff Zimmerman: Long term Strasburg. I don’t like Jose’s health profile

Aladdin Sane: Scary to think that, with no really impressive pitchers reaching free agency this offseason, deals which overpaid for mediocrity this winter (Leake, Chen, Kennedy) might actually not look so bad compared to the desperation we could be in store for.

Paul Swydan: Yeah and that could have factored into the decision making at the time as well.

Jeff Zimmerman: Agree, nothing at all out there. Buy while you can.

gavin: VV for Andrew Miller with Chapman back is a fair offer right? Can’t convince Miller’s owner in my league. 🙁

Paul Swydan: VV as in Vincent Velasquez? Yes, more than fair. Not sure why you’d be holding onto Miller in a redraft league at all.

Jeff Zimmerman: Then move on, people always over value their own players

Paul Swydan: There’s a small chance that Chapman gets traded, but that is FAR from a certainty.

Alex: I’m afraid Urias will become unrosterable in my shallow dynasty league. Once he loses his rookie status, if he spends the first year up in the bullpen not getting saves, he won’t score for me. If he starts but doesn’t reach ~150 IP, he won’t score for me. With only ~220 players rostered in this league, how can I burn a majors roster spot on a player who won’t score for me years down the road? But I know if I drop him, he will be scooped up immediately.

Paul Swydan: Well, he’s not going to be a reliever long term. By the time he loses his rookie status, he should be a starter.

Jeff Zimmerman: Trade him …. it is an option.

Eric: Does Strasburg’s extension expedite Shohei Otani’s move to the MLB as he would be presumably the class of the free agent starting pitcher market?

Paul Swydan: One would think.

Paul Swydan: But Otani and his current team don’t need to be beholden to MLB’s landscape.

Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe, I am not familiar with the details of the situation

Yusuf: Yo when we vote on these matchups are we voting on overall team matchup (and the name of the pitcher given to add context) or are we voting on just the pitchers?

Paul Swydan: It’s a mix. No need to be black and white about it.

Larry: Panic time on Puig? Seems like the dude swings at EVERYTHING.

Paul Swydan: His swing % is up 3%, which puts him 8th overall: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=15&season=2016&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=6,d

Paul Swydan: So, you’re on point there. Having said that, I’m not ready to panic just yet.

Paul Swydan: He has always swung a lot.

Jeff Zimmerman: No, but he is hitting more FB’s which will kill his AVG

mike hawk: Sup

Jeff Zimmerman: I see nothing to panic over, but he is changing a bit

Paul Swydan: Sup

mcgee: How far are the padres from contention

Paul Swydan: Far. And getting further every day AJ Preller remains employed. What he did to that team is going to reverberate for the better part of a decade.

Jeff Zimmerman: Far I think. They don’t have enough talent, money, or smooth deals to contend right now.

Jeff Zimmerman: brb

Danny Almonte: Velasquez pitches until he meets his innings limit, then combine him with Urias after that. How would that hypothetical pitcher rank? Top 20 starter?

Paul Swydan: Top 20 seems like a little bit of a stretch, to be honest, but if that’s your strategy, I’ve certainly heard worse ideas.

Nate: Will the Royals actually finish closer to their PECOTA projections?

Paul Swydan: Let’s see how they react and reload on the trade market. I’m not convinced that they’re just going to go quietly into the night.

Paul Swydan: The Ks are a concern, and he’s also running a .197 BABIP right now. When that goes up, he’s going to look very much like the back-end, below average starter he is.

Lake: Do you see Matt Wisler becoming a solid #3 starter for the Braves when they expect to compete again? Great WHIP and ERA, but lack of K’s are worrisome.

Paul Swydan: Sorry, did that backwards. Answer before the question there, RE: Wisler.

Paul Swydan: I don’t think that’s ever happened before.

njs: what happens to unanswered questions in these chats… does anyone review them to see if there are any good article ideas in there (i feel like i ask good questions that don’t get answered… and i’m too old–or uninterested–to hit ya’ll up on twitter). 🙁

Paul Swydan: I would love to say that we do this, but I know that I never do. Have no fear, we’re not ignoring you on purpose.

Ben: Who makes the better closer, dellin Betances or andrew miller?

Paul Swydan: I’d rather have Miller in the role because I have a thing for lefty closers, but I don’t think there’s a wrong answer there.

New Guy: Adrian Gonzalez going to be all right?

Paul Swydan: Yes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IcoC4dn0iGY

Paul Swydan: Gonzalez isn’t even doing that poorly. Only the power is missing. It’ll come.

Jeff Zimmerman: He seems fine

story book ending: im intrigued with story, that he’s keeping this up. Whats the regression going to look like in your eyes, and what do you think his true talent level is?

Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is this. Very Chris Davis-ish, but can play MI

Paul Swydan: Well, his wRC+ is down 9 percent since the start of May. I think he’s probably a true talent 115 wRC+ player, which is VERY valuable in a middle infielder.

Ed in Iowa: After fixing Rwanda and saving the bald eagles God seems to have realized the decades of misery that he’d heaped upon Cubs fans, because now everything is (very nearly) perfect. I’m still a little bummed about Schwarber because I was pretty sure that he was going to be quite a bit better than the projections. But still, at this point, short of Mike Trout or Dellin Betances it’s hard to even see what to change. Heck even the important prospects are pretty much killing it. The only bad thing about being a Cub fan right now is that pretending you are Theo Epstein and getting to propose trades and stuff is pretty pointless when you wouldn’t actually change anything (other than trying to straighten out Soler enough that he still has trade value). That’s all, no question, just happy.

Paul Swydan: Ed is happy, and all is right in the world.

The Maddness: More surprising in the top 10 WAR, Fowler, Murphy or Eaton?

Paul Swydan: For me – definitely Murphy.

Paul Swydan: If you guys have been reading me for awhile, you know I’m a huge Fowler fan, and Eaton was pretty well touted.

Paul Swydan: On the other hand, the Mets did almost nothing to retain Murphy this winter, which definitely gave me pause on him heading into this season.

Jeff Zimmerman: Test

Michael: Are you looking forward to knuckleballs at the all-star game?

Paul Swydan: Always.

Jeff Zimmerman: Sorry, having connection issue. I think my router is on its last legs

Jeff Zimmerman: It should only be Knuckleballs

Paul Swydan: I think the issue might be that you bought a router with legs, Jeff. They don’t need those…

Pat: After tonight’s start, does Manaea get sent back down?

Paul Swydan: I mean, I guess that would be warranted, but on the other hand, the A’s don’t really have much to lose by keeping him up. Not sure this is their year anyway.

Jeff Zimmerman: Manaea isn’t a great pitcher. I have never been impressed with him

Snid: How many legs did your router originally have?

Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, from the NYY fans, what are your thoughts on Gamel. I could see a David DeJesus type player.

Jeff Zimmerman: 16 legs

Paul Swydan: You mean *for* the NYY fans?

Jeff Zimmerman: Right “for”

Paul Swydan: Tell us what you think, Yankees fans!

FirstOldTimer: On a 538 podcast a little while ago they looked at whether it penciled out for the Angels to trade Trout, and based on his projected WAR through the rest of his contract and the bust rate and projected WAR for some of the best minor league systems (think of it like a KATOH hybrid) they estimated that it would take a team like Boston (with a very good system) emptying their system to make the math work. The articles I’ve seen (on ESPN and here) seem to suggest a reasonable hypothetical deal would require much less than that. What say you, venerable wordsmiths?

Paul Swydan: I don’t see how you get him for less than 5 of your team’s best 7 prospects. The complicating factor is that Trout is so young – to trade a player of his caliber at his young age, it has to be a godfather offer.

Paul Swydan: Which the Red Sox, Cubs or Dodgers could definitely put together.

Paul Swydan: Guess we lost Jeff again.

Fruit Pie the Magician: Nick Castellanos……sustainable breakout or heavy pendulum swing coming?

Jeff Zimmerman: Big swing coming

Paul Swydan: He’s rocking a .455 BABIP and walking even less than he did last year, but he is hitting fewer ground balls, so that’s something at least.

Jeff Zimmerman: I lost my Trout comment in the interwebs, but I think Bryant, Seager or Betts would be the highlight of the trade with smaller parts thrown in

JP: Can Yordano pull it together or is he too far gone? The peripherals are truly awful. Trying to sell low on him but no takes. Would you rank Gausman and Joe Ross above him?

Paul Swydan: Would definitely rank Ross above him. Right now, probably Gausman as well. I’ll let Jeff handle what’s wrong with him.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yes on both. I had to dump Ventura in Tout Wars for Rubby. Ventura was useless

Kurdt: A rotation of Masahiro Tanaka, Cole Hamels, Marcus Stroman, Michael Wacha, Joe Ross, and Aaron Nola good enough to contend in a 10-teamer?

Paul Swydan: Contend, yes. Win? Not ready to go there.

DooDooBrown: Who has the most erotic batting stance? Left-handed Victor Martinez?

Jeff Zimmerman: No … IMO. No real Ace. I am worried you may be last in Ks

Paul Swydan: Julio Franco?

Jeff Zimmerman: Mike Aviles?

Paul Swydan: Whose stance has a lot of pelvic thrusts. No one is coming to mind.

NYY Fan: Yankees fan here, forecasting a bright future for Ben Gamel as a useful role-player (likely for some other team that offers pitching). Also, fuck Lorenzo Cain.

Paul Swydan: Spoken like a true Yankees fan. Stay classy.

ryN: Story and Duda for Abreu, which side wins?

Paul Swydan: The side that gets Abreu.

Paul Swydan: It’s a good framework for a deal though.

Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, unless Story is a huge upgrade at SS

DooDooBrown: I’ve read a lot of conflicting things about McCutchen. Some say he’s in “decline” phase isn’t he still a pretty safe bet to bat .300 with 30HR and 100RBI?

Paul Swydan: Yeah, I’m not worried about McCutchen.

Jeff Zimmerman: I think so, he may come up short in one category, but make up for it in another.

Murdoc: What are the chances Steven Wright finishes the season as the Red Sox second most productive pitcher?

Paul Swydan: Decent. Porcello has been very good as well.

Jeff Zimmerman: Decent and I could actually see Price as not the #1

Tim: I cant find a buyer for carlos gomez. I dont want to start him and yet I feel like I cant drop him. What to do.

Paul Swydan: I think you can drop him.

Jeff Zimmerman: Drop for now I guess. Tough call.

Belted: Is Brandon Belt playing significantly above his talent level, or can he sustain this for a full season?

Jeff Zimmerman: I think people have been waiting for this season for a while. It is within the range of his talent.

Paul Swydan: The walks are crazy! He has the 4th highest BB% in the game right now.

Paul Swydan: I would agree with Jeff though, this all seems like just a slight uptick in every area. Maybe unsustainable, but I don’t think this is out of the question.

Daniel W: Think Drew Smyly sees an innings limit this season?

Paul Swydan: I would be surprised if he did.

Jeff Zimmerman: No, if he is healthy, he will throw, IMO

Miserable Twinks Fan: Terry Ryan has stated that some big changes are in store for the pathetic Twins. Think there’s any chance May will get some starts? Or at least take over the closer role?

Paul Swydan: I don’t know, but I know that if that is one of the “big” changes, then the Twins really are in trouble. The big change should be Ryan resigning.

Jeff Zimmerman: Please ley May start (as a Royals fan). I don’t think they can really make any huge changes.

Rufio: Porcello will go back to his career-ish numbers right? Even his FIP and xFIP are pretty close to career numbers, only difference is his ERA is lower than the other two.

Paul Swydan: His xFIP is actually currently the 2nd best mark of his career and nowhere near his career numbers – 3.25 right now vs. 3.83 for his career. And his 3.72 FIP is also lower than his career mark, and in line with his best seasons. The ERA may come up, but I don’t see this start to the season from Porcello as unsustainable.

Jeff Zimmerman: The key will be if he can keep the >9 K/9 with his normal low walk totals

Paul Swydan: Indeed!

Yo_Adrian: I was looking at Patrick Corbins Velocity Charts. Does it make any sense that his FB velos are down slightly and his breaking pitches velos are up? Am I reading this right?

Paul Swydan: Well, the FA and FT part yes, but his slider velo also looks down. The changeup sort of looks up, but it’s down vs. last year.

Paul Swydan: Or rather, it’s constant vs last year. I think the first half of 2013 is throwing you off RE: his changeup. Pretty consistent since then.

Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=9323&position=P&pitch=CH

Paul Swydan: If you want to see what we’re talking about here.

Rufio: Talk to me about Eickhoff. I see a fringe fastball with two good breaking pitches. His numbers an illusion…especially pitching in CBP?

Paul Swydan: I’m a fan.

Paul Swydan: The slider and curveball values are legit.

Paul Swydan: As are all of you. Unfortunately, we need to sign off for the night. Until next week!