Meet the All-or-Nothing David Wright
You don’t need to know what spinal stenosis is to know you don’t want it, and to know it’s bad that David Wright has it. No major-league baseball player would choose the condition for himself, and for Wright, the diagnosis raised innumerable questions about the state of his career. When this very regular season opened, there was chatter in the first series that Wright looked stiff, that he looked exploitable and weak. Early on, it looked like Wright could and would be a liability. It would be a most unfortunate turn for a beloved former superstar.
Let’s be clear: David Wright still has spinal stenosis. That isn’t going to change. He is very much limited, but at the same time, as I write this, Wright is sitting on a 136 wRC+, about dead even with his lifetime mark of 134. Wright might be compromised, but Wright has also made things work, and he’s done that by focusing on maximization. David Wright has turned himself into an all-or-nothing hitter.
I feel like this is almost too easy to write. All the evidence is there, and it points in one direction, one direction that makes complete and total sense given what Wright is going through, physically. About pitchers, people say arms have only so many bullets. You could say that about Wright, only with swings in place of pitches. Wright can’t take a thousand hacks a day. He doesn’t have it in him, so when he does take a swing, he wants to make it count. Another way of expressing a focus on maximization is a focus on efficiency. Wright wants his swings to be selective, efficient, and powerful.
To start with, a heat map. Here are Wright’s swing tendencies. On the left, Wright from 2013 – 2015. On the right, Wright this season. This is from the catcher’s perspective, so keep that in mind as you glance:
Wright has dramatically tightened up his swing zone. More than before, he’s spitting on pitches away. He’s spitting on pitches down. Obviously, pitchers will throw pitches wherever they throw them, but as far as 2016 Wright is concerned, the interesting stuff is over the middle of the plate. Wright has used two-thirds of his swings on pitches over the middle, and not only is that an increase from his history — his rate ranks third-highest in baseball, behind only Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders. Wright knows what he wants to swing at, and more often than not, he’s been able to stay in his own preferred zone.
That’s part of it. Here’s another part. These are the same heat maps, only instead of swing rate, these show contact rate. You’ll, uh, see what’s going on.
There’s reduced contact almost everywhere. Up and in? Reduced. Up and away? Reduced. Down and away? Reduced. Down and in? Reduced. Down the middle, even? Reduced. There’s still a hot spot there, about thigh-high over the inner third, but Wright is swinging through plenty more baseballs. In isolation, that’s bad, but this is just a consequence of his adapted approach.
David Wright is swinging less, but he’s swinging harder, and he’s swinging to put the ball in the air. There are 180 hitters who have batted at least 100 times in each of the last two seasons. Let’s follow Wright’s progress, shall we?
- Groundball rate: Wright’s rate of grounders has dropped by 14 percentage points. This is the third-biggest drop of everyone in the sample.
- Swing rate: Wright’s rate of swings has dropped by seven percentage points. This is the ninth-biggest drop.
- Contact rate: Wright’s rate of contact has dropped by 14 percentage points. This is the single biggest drop.
- Hard-hit rate: Wright’s rate of solid contact has increased by 15 percentage points. This is the second-biggest increase.
All the evidence, again, points to one place. If you prefer some newer-style data, last year Wright ranked in the 66th percentile in average batted-ball speed on flies and liners. So far this year he ranks in the 92nd percentile. Maybe I’m wrong in saying that Wright is actually swinging harder. His maximum bat speed is his maximum bat speed. But he’s seemingly not ever cutting down on his swing. He’s apparently attacking with his full swing more consistently, because that gives him a chance to make dangerous contact.
Wright physically can’t cover the plate like he used to. He’s adjusted to that reality by focusing on the pitches he can get to. With his approach and swing, he’s ending up with an awful lot of strikeouts, but the strikeouts also come with walks and homers, and the thing all of those have in common is very little running. Of course, when you walk, you have to prepare to run, and when you homer, you have to jog, but Wright is a big-leaguer — he can’t be totally inactive. He can do only as much as he can, and David Wright at the moment remains a threatening hitter. It’s a testament to rolling with the punches.
In the field, Wright isn’t himself. He can’t be. At least, the definition of “himself” has changed. In the field, he’s not what he was. At the plate, he’s also not what he was, but he’s still good. He’s still disciplined, and he’s still strong, and though he’s a hell of a lot more strikeout-prone, there’s productivity in between the whiffs. Players everywhere are always making adjustments, but Wright’s have managed to keep alive a potentially Hall-of-Fame career.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
So far there’s been a lot more all and a lot less nothing than I was expecting after the diagnosis, anyhow. It’s not every major physical problem that you can “adjust” a hitting approach around, so this is great to see. One thing I’m trying to pay attention to with Wright — and that I’d like to see some research on — is weather. He looks noticeably more pained and physically tighter when playing in the cold. I’d love to see his hitting splits below 55F or so post-diagnosis.
I wish we could get Albert to hit the ball in the air like this.
All right, Trout for Syndergaard and Kevin Long. Gotta do SOMETHING!
One thing to note and keep an eye on with Wright is some mechanical adjustments he made with his swing. He started the year with a new leg kick that he has since ditched. I don’t have exact dates, this talks a bit about it http://m.mets.mlb.com/news/article/174951616/david-wright-began-2016-with-leg-kick-at-plate
I believe he dropped it and of April, and it seems like he’s making more contact in May (half as often, in fact). Worth revisiting later, I’d say.
*Striking out half as often.
I should proof-read more.
I was going to comment about the same thing. A NY Post article about him ditching the leg kick is actually linked above (though that part of the articles is not discussed here). I think I read that he ditched the leg kick during the Reds series on 4/26 -he struck out twice that game -but overall since the change has 8 K in 44 PA….much better than the 26 in 73 before then.
This was a good write up – it’s interesting to see the swing/contact rates in various parts of the zone
David Wright is third in the majors in walk rate, behind only Harper and Goldschmidt. You wonder what he could do if the NL adopted the DH.
50fwar and 47bwar before he turned 31, looked like a sure fire hall of famer.
Even when he has to run he’s been looking good so far. He’s still charging in and barehanding bunts and weak grounders as good as he ever has, and he’s had a few stolen bases here and there too. He may need some more days off and he may be adjusting his approach, but he’s still looking like an excellent player.
The only glaring issue with Wright is that his ability to throw is shot. His range, reflexes, and ability to charge and barehand slow rollers are very much intact. He just can’t throw. Honestly, even in his prime, his throwing wasn’t all that great. The play against Puig in tonight’s game is a microcosm. He made an incredible diving stop on a screaming liner but he had to pause to check the runner at second and he wound up making an en errant side-arm throw.
His stance and mechanics has indeed reverted to what’s been similarly used for much of his career. The leg kick he introduced this spring and for much of April for his back caused considerable timing issues and very high K rate.
But he would fare much better with shorter swing especially with two strikes. He is swinging very hard – unnecessarily hard – which is counterproductive to consistent quality contact and focus on the baseball.
Defensively his arm lacks second gear and is liability. He throws all arm, typically making no use of his lower half.
That has to change. He’s has to figure it out, come up with better method that still protects his back but doesn’t hurt the team.
Wright obviously knows better than outsiders, as he knows what his body is feeling, how much effort goes into getting ready for a game, and how certain swings impact his back. But when he was first diagnosed, I thought his approach would become the opposite of what this article is (accurately) describing. I thought he would be develop a short, compact swing that focuses on contact, and he would run high batting averages with some doubles mixed in, but very few HR.
A quick look at his stats shows that he has a .198 ISO, which is slightly above his career average. Despite batting under .250, he’s still a highly productive hitter, but his production comes in the exact opposite way that I thought it would.
David Wright is a stud! There are only a handful of players at most that could still be productive with all of the issues which he deals with. Remember the more or less lost seasons to that bad shoulder? The bad bean-ball to the dome? Guys quit all the time that go through a lot less that Wright.
I think moving Wright to 1st base would make him a much more valuable player. His range is fine, and his weak arm won’t be much of an issue at 1st base. The bat still would play there as well and he might need less off-days.
It’s a shame the Mets couldn’t keep Murphy and deal Duda.
RF-Grandy
3B-Murphy
CF-Cespedes
LF-Conforto
1B-Wright
2B-Walker
SS-Cabrera
C-d’Arnaud/Plawecki
For now, Wright could be Duda’s platoon partner who splits his time between 1st and 3rd. If the Mets don’t deal Duda, perhaps Wright could move to RF once Granderson’s contract is up.
Duda is better than Murphy and Wright would make a terrible first baseman. I think 3rd is easier on his back than 1st would be because first base requires the player to make stretches that are hard on the back (don’t forget Mattingly had this same condition and he couldn’t handle it). Not to mention the very good reason why first basemen are usually large and tall: size gives a bigger target to throw to and more range to catch the ball. Something that Wright just doesn’t posses.
Please Mets fans, I beg you, stop hating Duda and trying to replace him. He is a good player and a fine 1st baseman. Wright should not play 1st over him, and he probably shouldn’t play there regardless.
It’s genuinely weird how much how many of our fellow Mets fans underrate Duda. Part of it is how his quiet personality plays in the media, I guess, and maybe a hangover from the disastrous LF experiment at the start of his ML career.
“More than before, he’s spitting on pitches away. He’s spitting on pitches down.”
Is this a common expression – taking pitches termed “spitting on” them, or is it a Sullivanism? Just curious, I had never heard it before.
Common baseballism. It seems to mean not just taking but taking calmly without even a hint of thinking about swinging.
Jeff, Great article.
Wouldn’t this approach work with a guy like Pujols? his soft contact % is way up and contact rates both outside and inside the zone are up to.Maybe he is a case where making contact is adding negative value to his offensive production cause he is obviously putting the bat on pitches he cannot longer crush even if those pitchers are inside the zone. His approach is still outstanding at least by BB and K rate percentages standards so striking out more wouldnt be the worst thing.
if he does this he might hit more hard balls in the air instead of having all those grounders pushing his babip to below mediocre levels.
The article from the other day about how hard it is for Wright to just stand up on some days is mind-boggling. Wright has seemingly willed himself into remaining a productive player, but one honestly wonders how long he’ll be willing to put up with the daily agony he seemingly goes through just to get on the field. Dude is a warrior.
This is probably the first fangraphs article I would describe as “inspirational”