FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 5/5/15

by Paul Swydan

May 5, 2015

3:35	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Jeff and I will be here to chat at 9 pm ET. Well, Jeff might be late, but usually he just says he’ll be late and then shows up on time. Under promise, over deliver, and all of that. Anyhoo, get your questions in now, and we’ll chat like the bosses we all are.

9:01	Paul Swydan: OK, let’s do this. Jeff IS going to be late, so you’re stuck with me for awhile.

9:01

Comment From Job
Saw this on Twitter: If you think Lucroy is a 5ish win player for ’15/’16/’17 and Perez is a 3ish win guy for his contract, and the Royals are going all in for the next few years, would it make sense for KC to trade Perez + prospects or Lucroy or just Perez? Lucroy is a better hitting and isn’t credit for pitch framing, but the contract isn’t as nice as Perez.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I mean, it’s an interesting thing to ponder, but I don’t see the upgrade being enough for the Royals to sacrifice all the knowledge that Perez already has of their system and their pitchers, etc, etc. Don’t see that one happening.

9:02	Comment From Minty No one knows what their respective teams will do, but when would you debut Correa and Seager?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Not before the Super 2 deadline passes in June.

9:03	Comment From Byron Van Slyke, Pederson & Puig best OF in baseball

9:04	Paul Swydan: Maybe not quite yet, but it’s definitely in the running.

9:04	Comment From Guest Whose boss are you, exactly? Do you force that person/those people to celebrate Boss’s Day?

9:04	Paul Swydan: I don’t really consider myself anyone’s boss, though I am responsible for certain people. And, hell no, I didn’t even know that was a day. Why is that a day? This country, I swear.

9:05	Comment From FF Woodycooks Will Bryant walk too much to ever reach his 40+ HR potential? Pitchers already seem terrified.

9:05	Paul Swydan: I’m going to go ahead and say that’s not a thing, and don’t worry about it.

9:05	Comment From A cincinnati announcer Is Kris Bryant giving up HRs for BBs, and if so how much is he hurting the Cubs?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Now that’s funny.

9:06	Comment From Sexy prospect lover Help convince me why not to drop Alexei Ramirez for Carlos Correa. Please tell me I’m right and last year was flukey and he won’t be worth owning as much as Correa.

9:06	Paul Swydan: I mean, if you’re in a dynasty league where you can keep Correa, and you’re not trying to win it all this year – go for it. If that isn’t your situation, then hang on to Ramirez.

9:06	Comment From Guest suicide squad film gonna be best film ever or merely best film of 2016

9:07	Paul Swydan: That movie looks awful.

9:07	Comment From Brad What’s up with Tulo’s plate discipline?

9:10

Paul Swydan: So, he’s swinging way more than normal, and making contact way less than normal, and pitchers are challenging him in the zone more than they have the past couple of years. It’s not a good recipe. Perhaps if the Rockies ever play another game, he’ll figure it out. I’m not too worried at this stage.

9:10	Paul Swydan: Don’t forget, Tulo has had some truly terrible Aprils.

9:10	Comment From TheGrandslamwich Lots of people are jumping on the “Kazmir is up for trade” ship. Isn’t it still way too early for that kind of talk?

9:10	Paul Swydan: Yes, but I think the A’s are going to be on the receiving end of a lot of that because their offseason was confusing to the point where a lot of people want to see them fail.

9:10	Comment From Juan His Cano and Span for my Cespedes. What side do you fall on? I worry about Span’s health and Cano’s general underperformance.

9:11	Paul Swydan: I don’t care much for Cespedes in fantasy, so definitely the Cano side.

9:11	Comment From bmarkham How about adding each team’s BaseRuns total to your box scores? So we have a good idea of how lucky a winning team was? That would be cool.

9:11	Paul Swydan: Duly noted.

9:12	Comment From Arnie Please help me out here. I was offered Dallas Keuchel and Shane Robinson for Ellsbury and Edward Mujica. My current 6 starters are Sale, Kluber, CJ Wilson, T Walker, D Hutchinson and TJ House (who I will pick up a free agent for) Am I overeacting or would you make this deal.

9:12	Paul Swydan: I’d hang on to Ellsbury.

9:13	Comment From Stevolatte If the MLB were to completely start over, do you think the local governments would still own or pay for the stadiums rather than the teams?

9:15

Paul Swydan: In this economic climate, where so much of this country is just scraping by, if at all? Yes, actually I do think governments would talk themselves into it, because — without painting with too broad a brush — local politicians are dumb, and billionaire owners are smart. Well, not James Dolan. But you get my point.

9:15	Comment From Jay29 Why can’t I see ZiPS(U) and Steamer(U) lines on player pages anymore?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Huh. That’s a good question. I will look into that.

9:16	Comment From Curtis If you had an infield of Fielder, Howard, Ortiz, and Kennys Vargas who plays shortstop?

9:16	Paul Swydan: That sounds like a poll question!

9:17	Comment From Curtis Will/Should the Astros be buyers at the trade deadline?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Will they? I doubt it. Should they? Maybe. I’m not ready to be all-in on the Astros quite yet.

9:18	Comment From Curtis What would you do with ARod’s 660 ball if you caught it?

9:19	Paul Swydan: I think ultimately I would try to sell it. Someone will probably pay $50,000 for it, and there’s a lot of things I could do with that money.

9:19	Comment From Stevolatte Do YOU have a Fangraphs T-Shirt?

9:20	Paul Swydan: I do, but I spilled something on it the other day – or, rather, my daughter spilled something on it the other day – and I think I need to get a new one.

9:20	Comment From Sshhh…no one knows Im here Do we ever see sabermetrics in vogue in the NFL or NHL front offices?

9:20	Paul Swydan: Oh, I’m certain that they are. It’s just that the NFL is more tight lipped and no one cares about the NHL.

9:21	Comment From Brian I already want Cueto to be an Astro and I’m not even an Astros fan!

9:22

Paul Swydan: I guess the issue with the Astros making a big splash like that though is that you don’t build up all those prospects just to trade a bunch of them to make one title run. You build them up to make several. Now, the flip side of that argument is that Houston used to run with the big boys payroll wise, and should have no trouble doing so again. Whether they do is another question.

9:23	Comment From Its raining Will a feature on #yearofthetriple be featured on fangraphs sometime?

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Why would we want to talk about 1980?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Jeff did a thing on Paulo Orlando’s triples recently. And Miles Wray recently had a triples-themed piece on The Hardball Times. But maybe?

9:24	Paul Swydan: Jeff Sullivan, I should say. Hi Jeff Zimmerman!

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: HI

9:25	Comment From Dave in London With Tanaka out indefinitely, is Chase Whitley entrenched in the Yankees rotation? Thoughts on Whitley?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Entrenched is probably a strong word. He didn’t last in the rotation last season: http://www.baseball-referen… (Ctrl-F for Whitley) So I wouldn’t be surprised if he didn’t last this year either.

9:26	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Whitley will be be in the rotation for a while. He is one of the better pitchers on the Yankees right now.

9:27	Comment From Sshhh…no one knows Im here When Jake McGee is healthy, isn’t he an elite (top 4) closer?

9:27	Paul Swydan: Probably more like top 10-15 than top 4-5.

9:27	Jeff Zimmerman: No, his numbers aren’t in the top 4 range.

9:27	Comment From Nevets Any reason why Devon Travis didn’t really show in the minors an ability to have this kind of batted ball velocity?

9:28	Paul Swydan: I mean, who’s to say he didn’t? Do you know of a resource for minor league batted ball velocity data? If so, can you share it with the rest of the group?

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: He doesn’t even know from a quote the other day. I think teams got a bad minor league report on him and are pitching him wrong. I think he may start strugging any time now.

9:30	Paul Swydan: I mean, obviously no one expects him to keep this pace up, that’s for sure. But he’s still been fun to watch, and will likely continue to be fun to watch.

9:30

Comment From Jeyz
Do you know of any statistics that correlate player performance with recent team W-L records or the team’s likelihood to make the playoffs? It seems like some success or failure may be tied to whether the player is competing for a playoff spot or is competing for a last place team.

9:30	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:32	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but teams can really change their makeup with a couple healthy players back. There is an old article at THT on teams who jumped up in the 2nd half. Most is becasue they got players back.

9:33	Comment From Khris Davis My job after graduation doesn’t start until August, so I’m planning on taking a trip to Central America right before it starts. How should I go about trying to learn Spanish at a conversational level by then? (I’ve heard Rosetta Stone is surprisingly mediocre?)

9:34

Paul Swydan: I don’t, sorry. Anyone have suggestions? Also, I think this is the part where I say that I hate that you already know your job early enough to line up travel plans. I didn’t find a job until the end of August, and was worried I was going to have to move home when my lease ended a week from the time when I got my job. I mean, uh, congrats and junk!

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Wrong chat, but seriously I had a Spanish teacher recomend watching Spanish soap operas. Slow easy talk.

9:35	Comment From Its raining Do you believe that Elvis Andrus and/or Fielder both finish out their contracts with the Rangers? Or does Texas manage to offload them

9:35	Paul Swydan: I believe in Andrus more than I do Fielder.

9:36	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it will be tough to get rid of Fielder. With Andrus, teams always could use a SS.

9:36	Comment From Hawk H People bought into the Mets pretty early so far this year… when do people start buying into the yankees, who’ve also outperformed projections?

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: The Yankees are generally healthy especially the hitters. Myself and others don’t them to stay that way.

9:38

Paul Swydan: I think Mets fans bought into the Mets. As for the rest of us, I’m not so sure. I know I didn’t. The Yankees, on the other hand, are hard to kill, and while they may have overperformed thus far, they’ll be right in the thick of it. The Mets are only contenders because of who they play, not because of who they are.

9:38	Comment From Dill Withers Does Bonds end up getting voted into the HoF?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Yes.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: No, not by the writers.

9:39	Comment From Nittanychris With the bad news on Cobb, does Alex Colome stick all year in the Rays’ rotation? What do you expect from him ROS?

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Colome is very fringy. I really don’t expect much, but he could surprise us.

9:40	Paul Swydan: I mean, he’s 26 now, and has never stuck in the rotation before, so it would seem silly to suggest that he definitely will now. I expect that if he can keep his walks under control that he’ll be a league average pitcher, but I don’t know that we should expect him to do so.

9:40	Comment From brad cargo is playing everyday and appears healthy so why is he struggling?

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: He may not be healthy.

9:41	Paul Swydan: He’s not hitting the ball with authority right now. He’s not pulling it like he used to either. Like Jeff said, he may LOOK healthy, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that he is.

9:42	Comment From Its raining Would you rather see Ted Williams or Babe Ruth bat against today’s best pitchers? Say in a day game at Fenway in late May (to put random parameters on the question)

9:43	Paul Swydan: I’m sure Babe Ruth was a lot of fun to watch, but I’ll take Ted Williams. One, I think watching him hit was probably a lot more fun, and two, I’d be able to share that experience with my dad, who got to grow up watching Williams hit.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Babe Ruth, I think he would be outmatch for a while. I think Williams would be able to adjust.

9:43	Comment From That Guy Is it more sad or amusing that despite losing Pineda for 2 and a half seasons that the Yankees still handily won that trade in retrospect?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Can’t it be both?

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: On Cargo, his power is down, his speed is down, his contact rate is down. All signs of an injury.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I would have loved tohave seen what the NY media would have done to Montero if he had the ice cream incident while on the Yankees

9:45	Paul Swydan: Haha, ya.

9:45	Comment From Its raining What do you two believe is the best method to analyse the performance of a bullpen?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I believe it’s either K% or K%-BB%, but Jeff knows better than I do.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: K% and GB%, Get the strikeout and not give up a home run.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: I do like K%-BB% for overall pitcher value.

9:47	Comment From Dave in London What should we expect from Marco Estrada ROS? The Yankess shelled him tonight.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I expected nothing from him to start the season.

9:48	Paul Swydan: He hadn’t been properly stretched out, so I’ll give him a mulligan tonight. At least his control was good.

9:48	Comment From Khris Davis RE: Learning Spanish. Could you post this comment to ask the chatters if they’ve used Duolingo or Rocket Languages before and what they thought of them?

9:48	Paul Swydan: Sure. Anyone? I’ve never heard of either company myself, and continue to be of no use to you.

9:48	Comment From Dr. Met Man pitchers keep falling like flies. Anything on the PAIN index foreshadowing Strasburg’s injury?

9:49	Paul Swydan: Jeff?

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: No, but he is in the injury zone for another major injury after his first TJS. Average breakdown time is 4.5 years.

9:50	Comment From Khris Davis RE: RE: Learning Spanish. I forgot to mention I will be taking Jeff’s advice and walk Bumblee Guy from the Simpsons to help my Spanish progression.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: He is year early and he still threw hard which also increases his injury risk.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I literally put a Bumblebee Man picture in an email today. Ayyy, naranjas en mi cabeza!!!

9:51	Comment From Jose Valentin I was offered Nelson Cruz and Mike Leake for Jake Arrieta and Michael Wacha. What do you think? Thanks guys

9:52	Paul Swydan: Well, always lean for the hitter, but I like Arrieta and Wacha, so if you don’t have a huge need for a hitter, I could see holding off. Leake doesn’t do it for me, and I really can’t see Cruz keeping up this pace again.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the Cruz side, the hitter.

9:52	Comment From Its raining Will Bryce Harper have faced a pitcher younger than him, in the majors, by the end of 2016?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I think so, because hopefully Urias will be up by then, though there’s no guarantee he’d face the Nationals. But I’ll still say yes.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: No, I but he see a bullpen arm sometime this year, probably in September.

9:54

Comment From Michael
Given that HR/FB is approximately constant, do groundball pitchers become more attractive as the overall run-scoring environment goes down because relatively higher BABIP is not as bad as the risk of giving up HRs? Conversely, if the run-scoring environment goes up (e.g. MLB shrinks the strike zone), will smart teams trend back to more flyball pitchers?

9:54	Paul Swydan: I think they probably already are, as evidenced by the Dodgers liking all of these guys who throw high in the strike zone.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it will move back and forth over time.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: BTW, I am SHOCKED to see Brandon Morrow is back on the DL

9:56	Comment From Kiko Guy If the Brewers were offered Seager for Lucroy would they actually turn it down?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I don’t think the Brewers would turn it down, no. The question is whether the Dodgers would offer him. I don’t think they would, since Grandal might be good and Uribe definitely is old.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: They may. The Lucroy contract is pretty good.

9:57	Comment From Sshhh…no one knows Im here Do the Pale Hose wait it out with Micah Johnson?

9:57	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I think they give him half a season at least. No reason not to.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea.

9:58	Comment From Mark Bartolo! So awesome.

9:58	Paul Swydan: It really is hard to fathom how well he has done these past couple of seasons.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: One of my favorite pitchers. Fatter and older than me.

9:59	Comment From Kiko Guy Who does trade for Lucroy, if not the Dodgers? They seem like the fit in terms of potential need and prospects