FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/21/16

by Paul Swydan

June 21, 2016

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:02	TheDudeofNY: Paul, have you seen Alien yet?

9:02	Paul Swydan: I have not. Might be awhile, going on a trip with the kids next week.

9:02	Paul Swydan: Oh, which probably means no chat next week. Sorry about that.

9:02	CJ: Who’s better Kershaw or Arrieta? Mike Wilbon on ESPN – Arrieta.. (Followed by a bunch of post season stats as his proof. Also mentioned that’s all that matters.) Was that a real opinion? My god the mainstream sports media. Do they not realize this is history in the making for Kersh???!!??

9:03	Paul Swydan: Mike Wilbon’s opinion on basketball or boxing is to be taken seriously. On baseball, I think he’s proven time and again that he is not to be taken seriously.

9:03	Jeff Zimmerman: Kershaw easy and sorry for being late

9:03	Paul Swydan: Also, he’s a Chicago guy, so this is a fairly obvious thing for him to pick. I wouldn’t sweat it.

9:04	Paul Swydan: Finally, Jake Arrieta has pitched three postseason games, and he wasn’t even that great in two of them.

9:05	hscer: I picked my team’s division as most interesting. is that okay?

9:05	Paul Swydan: That’s totally OK.

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: understandable

9:06	I.C. Weiner: I trade away AJ Reed+Cobb+Franco and get Zobrist. 5 keeper league. My 5 keepers are Machado, Bogaerts, Arenado, CMart and Mookie. Could also keep Marte or Kershaw or Trout but they get expensive. So it makes sense right?

9:07	Paul Swydan: It makes sense in the sense that you’re definitely not keeping any of the three guys you are trading away. I guess I don’t know if it helps you for this season as much, though it seems as though you don’t need Franco.

9:07	Jeff Zimmerman: Seems fine in a vaccuum

9:07	Zoidberg: Are you concerned enough about Matz’s elbow not to get him in exchange for Votto

9:08	Paul Swydan: Yeah, I am. Also, Matz isn’t as good as Votto, so even if that’s the deal, you need to get more for Votto.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: Votto >>>>> Matz even if his elbow is perfectly fine (in fantasy).

9:08	Dal: Why does Starling Marte bat 5th or 6th behind Freese?

9:09	Paul Swydan: Because the team probably functions better when that is the case. It’s not worth getting worked up about. Unlike the stupid Argentinians, who didn’t even need three minutes to score.

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Not that big of deal IMO, it may cost the Pirates a few runs over the course of a season.

9:10	Metro: Paul, what did you think about the way Farrell handled the 9th last night?

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea Paul, what do you think?

9:11	Paul Swydan: I didn’t see much of an issue with it. The team doesn’t have much depth, unfortunately.

9:11	Conor the Barbarian: Trade away Dozier+Votto for Miggy. Single season OPS

9:11	Paul Swydan: Yeah I’d do that.

9:12	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, probably. small upgrade and depends what you have at 2B

9:13	Springer am Rand: I traded Ian Kinsler for David Price in a standard 5×5 roto. Is that why I’m feeling sad or is it something else in my life?

9:13	Paul Swydan: It’s probably something else.

9:14	Jeff: Do the Cubs make a loud trade for a SP this summer or winter OR do they hunt for a good stuff, weird periph guy to buy low on via trade?

9:14	Paul Swydan: I don’t know that they need to do either, but if I had to guess I’d say it’s the latter.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they try to go big on a 1.5 year guy. Not a ton of SP this year

9:15	Bobby Sandy: What kind of K rate do you think Steven Moya would need to maintain to be a productive everyday player?

9:15	Paul Swydan: Probably somewhere around 25%.

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: He could be 30% as a cap. I think now a days the level can be pushed up a bit

9:16	Lukas: Do you think the Padres WILL trade Wil Myers?

9:16	Lukas: Do you think the Padres SHOULD trade Wil Myers?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I feel like Lukas could have combined those questions. ANYHOO, no, and I’m not sure. I could see the argument for him still being at the tail end of his prime the next time they’re ready to be competitive.

9:17	Jeff Zimmerman: Don’t know and yes. I might even completely zag and extend him a couple years. They need some players eventually and he looks like he may have finally turned it around.

9:18	Rick: Is it tripping anyone else out that Johnny Giavotella has 4 home runs in the last 7 games? Am I seeing things?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Anyone is capable of having a good week.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: He has the offensive potential, the problem is having to watch him play 2B. Let me find the .gif I think of every time Johnny is on the field

9:20

Phil: I know the options are very limited and they likely are kinda stuck with what they’ve got, but considering they do appear to be a likely WC contender, is there any SP the O’s could target who would be worth it? I keep thinking of someone like Cashner who they could maybe acquire for the likes of Trey Mancini+, but then I look and think he really isn’t necessarily any better than having to roll with Mike Wright.

9:20	Paul Swydan: So, in situations like what Baltimore and Boston have, I’m reminded of this piece from Jesse Wolfersberger – http://www.hardballtimes.com/the-exponential-nature-of-offense/

9:21	Paul Swydan: Essentially, what it says is that even if you have a great offense, you can get even better if you keep adding pieces. That’s why I get so frustrated with Boston’s catching situation. The best way to improve either team may be to just keep piling on with the offensive weapons.

9:21	Jeff Zimmerman: I wonder if teams may go with the prospect for prospect trade to get pitching with hitting. Some of the contenders have an excess of hitting prospects

9:22	Bill: Rosenthal is terrible. Siegrist, Oh, or Matheny is a nutbar?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Giavotella gif: https://cdn3.vox-cdn.com/assets/1333738/gia.gif

9:23	Jeff Zimmerman: Oh, but if he makes a move I think it will be Siegrist

9:23	Paul Swydan: I wrote yesterday that I would go to Oh. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/its-time-for-the-cardinals-to-shake-up-their-bullpen/

9:23	Paul Swydan: Also, I agree with Jeff. He’s trusted Siegrist for longer.

9:23	Minty: Where do you think that Profar ends up in terms of HR/SB and OBP? I feel like he’s a sell in dynasty because he’ll be overrated.

9:25	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he is actually underrated at this point with him playing 2B. I think he can be 20/20 at least. He was a stud before the injuries and people shouldn’t be getting rid of talents like him.

9:25	Paul Swydan: Well, he hasn’t been a stolen base threat since A ball, so I wouldn’t expect him to steal a lot of bases. But I am very high on him in general and wouldn’t just sell quickly on him.

9:26	Tavera’s Ghost: Floundering in 7th place with a starting offensive roster of: rizzo, kipnis, correa, sano, harper, stanton, s marte, springer and saunders. Ride it out and wait for the stars to be stars or did I build too much around hit or miss guys?

9:27	Paul Swydan: I think you need to wait it out, unfortunately. I don’t think you have hit and miss guys so much as you have a lot of young guys, and progress is rarely linear. If you want to make one dramatic move, I might see if I can find someone to pay full price for Stanton.

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I like Stanton the best. His batted ball velo has turned it around. You have to ride this out with maybe looking to make some improvements in the OF

9:28	baltas vilkas: You know: I, along with others, was taping the soccer game between the U.S. and Argentina, right? Please issue a spoiler alert next time when doing the chats! Thanks.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: On Stanton’s BB velo: https://twitter.com/jeffwzimmerman/status/743268911878004740

9:29	Paul Swydan: Sorry. I didn’t think that our little chat was worth paying attention to over an important soccer game…

9:29	Ben: Will Fielder rebound this season? Is he done? Will Gallo supplant either Fielder or Moreland in 2016?

9:30	Paul Swydan: In his two-plus seasons in Texas, Prince Fielder has been worth -0.4 WAR. I think it’s time to stop asking if he can turn it around.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: I was amazed with Fielder’s season last year, but I think he may be done. The big-heavy guys just don’t age well

9:30	Kevin: First time being able to contribute to chat! ROS 12 H2H 5×5 Heyward or Han Ram?

9:30	Paul Swydan: Heyward

9:31	Jeff Zimmerman: Heyward better, I need him in Tout Wars

9:31	Dave in London: Thanks, as always, for your insight. Thoughts on Moncada? Just promoted to AA, but is he still several years away from the majors? Or, given his batting skills, might the Red Sox put him on the fast track, as they did with Betts and Xander, and give him a call-up in 2017?

9:32	Paul Swydan: So, I don’t think he is several years away. If you get to Double-A at his age, it’s probably because you’re within a year of debuting. The issue for Moncada is his position. He’s probably not playing second base in the majors.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: Tough call, but I could see Dave trade him for a nice haul like the Phil’s Nola and pieces.

9:33	Paul Swydan: The easy fix would be to move him to third base, but I guess we’ll see.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, they need to keep him at premium position for trade value

9:34	baltas vilkas: Understandable. But sometimes the flat screen is not available. Tonight a couple of others in the household are watching a pay for view movie which I’ve already seen. Hence, I’m here. No big deal.

9:34	Paul Swydan: I definitely don’t want to see him traded for pitching, I know that much. But the problem with the Red Sox farm system is that they only have 3-4 good prospects, so at least 1 of them is probably getting traded.

9:34	Paul Swydan: I know how that goes, baltas vilkas. Again, my apologies.

9:35	Ben: Who is going to take Trout’s MVP this year? Bogaerts, Machado and Altuve seem like front runners.

9:35	Paul Swydan: I don’t think it’s “Trout’s MVP.” But I do think he’ll still figure prominently. Bogaerts and Machado have the best odds right now.

9:35	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it will have to be Manny or Altuve if either team makes the playoffs.

9:36	Thomas: Hi Paul & Jeff! Should I sell Duvall? And if so, who for? Thanks!

9:37	Paul Swydan: I would definitely sell Duvall. For a position of need? Hard to know what your team needs are, my friend.

9:38	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes and I would go with an under performing youngster like Soler or Sano in a keeper. In a redraft, I would go with pitching, even a closer if needed. He only has one tool (power) and it could go cold at any time

9:38	Jim Lonborg: Buchholz looked decent tonight, no except for first inning and one terrible fastball, no? Surely worth at least a couple more starts, with no apparent other candidates.

9:39	Paul Swydan: Oh yeah, he did good enough to get some more action. Good ole Bill Clay Buchholz.

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: Clay can be lights out at times when he is healthy.

9:39	Von Schloss: How awesome is it that Kyle Barraclough’s name is pronounced Bear-claw?

9:39	Paul Swydan: It’s so cool I’m almost tempted to pay attention to the Marlins.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: Pretty damn coool

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: I wouldn’t go that far though Paul

9:40	Jim Lonborg: Thoughts about Travis Shore, as Remy calls him? Is he set as an everyday guy, a platoon candidate, our in the midst of a regression?

9:41	Paul Swydan: He’s in the midst of a giant, spiraling regression. When/whether he pulls out of it will go a long way to determining if he is an everyday player or a bench guy.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I think he can be a nice piece for any team as bench bat. I could easily see him in the NL being trade for a RP

9:42	The Mack: Should the Yankees be sellers at the deadline, is it possible they are able to move Chapman, CC, Nova, Beltran, Headley & either Gardner or Ellsbury?

9:43	Paul Swydan: I think they’d be able to sell Chapman and Beltran, and if they really wanted to, Gardner, Ellsbury and Nova. Not sure they should want to move those guys. The big question for me is would they be able to move A-Rod, and if they could, would they? Not sure on either front.

9:43	Paul Swydan: Alas, I don’t think they’ll be sellers.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they should try to move all of them, but the only value they may get is for Chapman and maybe one of the OF to help DH/PH for an NL team. The price tags are just too much for the lack of talent

9:44	Bryan: Why is Todd Frazier’s BABIP so low? Is he a target to buy?

9:44	Paul Swydan: I think part of it is bad luck, and part of it is he’s hitting so many home runs.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: First, he is hitting HR which is keeping his BABIP suppressed.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: I think is is performing as expected

9:45	Paul Swydan: His IFFB% is super duper high right now. Assuming that comes back to normal, I’d think his BABIP would too. I guess we’ll see.

9:45	Juan Nightstand: Where does Jose Reyes land??

9:46	Paul Swydan: Ultimately, I think he’ll end up in an independent league or in Japan/Korea/Taiwan. I think, for now at least, he’s done in the majors.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: On the first contender who has an injury at in the MI

9:46	Von Schloss: If Stanton continues to struggle does a Stanton for Puig deal begin to make sense?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:46	Jeff Zimmerman: Not at all

9:47	Bryan: Is it time to worry about Nola?

9:47	Paul Swydan: Nope.

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: Stanton for Kershaw maybe

9:48	The Mack: Does Chapman and Gardner to the Dodger for Puig & De Leon seem about right?

9:48	Paul Swydan: That’s a heck of an idea. I can’t even imagine what sort of shenanigans Puig would get into under the New York spotlight.

9:49	Paul Swydan: I’ll say that it doesn’t sound right though. From the Dodgers side, sure. Not so sure about the Yankees side.

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: It is fair, not sure if the Dodgers need Gardner. The more I think about it, the more I like it

9:49	Vic Romano: Is there any realistic chance the Cubs trade Montero for bullpen help and roll with Contreras as the primary C for the rest of the year?

9:50	Paul Swydan: There’s definitely a chance of that, yes. I think that’s why Contreras is up now, so they can assess his future before the trade deadline.

9:50	Paul Swydan: The Cubs are the sort of team that can float three catchers thanks to all of the position switching they do, but I doubt three catchers is the rest-of-season plan.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, the Cubs have a ton of options and prediction them right now seems impossible

9:51	hscer: re Reyes, I remember a decade ago I asked Joe Morgan in an ESPN chat whether Sir Sidney Ponson would end up in Japan. Ponosn had done something, I forget what, drunk driving maybe. Morgan’s answer was “They have rules in Japan too!”

9:52	Paul Swydan: They do indeed, which is why I mentioned Indy leagues and lesser leagues like Taiwan, which is where Manny Ramirez ended up playing after his domestic violence arrest.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: Reyes is totally headed to the Sugar Land Skeeters before over seas

9:53	B.B. Rodriguez: Donaldson is right there for mvp again….

9:53	Paul Swydan: Yes, he is as well.

9:53	Jeff Zimmerman: He has quietly turned his season around

9:54	Cole Blaque: Would you trade Braun straight up for Carrasco in a keep forever dynasty? 10 teams, 10 keepers, 5×5 plus ops, k/bb. Really need pitching.

9:54	Paul Swydan: Um, yes.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes. This is the time of year to start going after needs vs. talent

9:55	Minty: Profar or Baez for a dynasty?

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: Profar

9:56	Paul Swydan: I’m going to say Profar as well. The interesting thing is that they’re the same age.

9:56	hscer: meanwhile, the NL MVP is Clayton Kershaw or…or Bryce Harper tricking the voters into thinking his 2015 stats are his 2016 stats too

9:57	Paul Swydan: It’s an illuuuuuuusion!

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: I think Harper will turn it back on as he gets a little more healthy

9:57	Dave in London: I’m rebuilding my team for 2017, and need some pitchers for next year. Is it worth making a big offer for Snell or Berrios, who are cheap in my league? Do you have a preference for Snell or Berrios?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I’d say Snell. But if you want to gear up for 2017, you might try to find a pitcher who is about one more year established than a rookie like Snell.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Snell, I think. Berriros is still a little young IMO

9:58	Jared: Keeper forever league: Margot or Jake Lamb? Paxton or Adrian Beltre?

9:58	Paul Swydan: Margot. Beltre.

9:58	Paul Swydan: Beltre will bury us all.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Margot and I think Beltre. The second one is tougher

9:59	Paul Swydan: We were playing “who will be the last player remaining that is older than you” the other day at the Mets game, and it became pretty clear that mine is Beltre.

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Colon is it for me

9:59	Yojiveself: ‘Sup. Which c would you cut – weiters or gattis?