FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 6/6/17

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan:

Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

Tap: How come SwStr% are not on minor league batters’ player pages? When will Contact% be added?

Paul Swydan: I don’t know the answer to this but I asked internally, and if anyone lets me know during the chat, I’ll let you know!

Bud : Best guess what Mike Leake’s ERA is at year’s end? Thanks…

Paul Swydan: I’ll say 3.35.

Jake: Is Jeff Samardzija borderline elite now? He looks like he’s putting up the best peripherals of his career so far

Paul Swydan: Right now, yes. He’s in the top 10 in WAR right now.

Paul Swydan: And yeah, both K% and BB% career bests. The low BB% is more impressive to me.

ChatzMcGee: Giants are most disappointing to Giants fans, everyone rose is glad they suck, it is known.

Paul Swydan: everyone rose?

Paul Swydan: I assume that was supposed to say “else” ?

Familybro: Would you advise buying low on Tanaka?

Paul Swydan: I would. I don’t think there’s any way he’s this bad unless he’s hurt, and if he is, then you didn’t give up much to buy low.

Jake: What do you think Cozart’s true talent is? 3-4 WAR player?

Paul Swydan: Yeah. He’s been incredible this year. I’m willing to buy into a lot of the changes, but the BABIP probably isn’t going to be 111 points higher than his career average long-term.

Paul Swydan: And there’s nothing wrong with a 3-4 WAR player. That’s better than he’s been his whole career, and he’s had a good career.

Edwin: Is Votto having his best year ever?

Paul Swydan: Nope. He’s had a lot of great years.

Paul Swydan: 2010 is still the season to beat.

Schimpf Fried Rice: O/U on 35 HRs and .315 OBP for Schimpf?

Paul Swydan: Will take the under and under.

Paul Swydan: BTW, Jeff is at his daughter’s baseball game tonight, in case you’re curious.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: I’m a bit late, but I’m voting Phillies for biggest disappointment. I didn’t think they’d be this bad.

Paul Swydan: Me neither!

Nick: I won 2k on draftkings yesterday. Are you aware of any legal way to avoid taxation on these winnings? I live in CA

Paul Swydan: God no, never ask me for legal advice. I know not of these things. Sorry.

Big Tuna: Rays are calling up Faria. What do you think of his MLB prospects and, for fantasy purposes, how would you compare him to other young arms like Jordan Montgomery?

Paul Swydan: Well, he projects as a league average starter. Certainly, I don’t think the Rays should be tied to Andriese or Ramirez in the rotation longterm, but they also have De Leon and Snell there for competition, so I wouldn’t be too bullish on his chances of sticking in the rotation all season just yet.

Nick: Do you think that racism or stereotypes, besides those based on height affect player evaluation for HS, College, and Int players?

Paul Swydan: Whether overt or subconscious, we all have our biases, and some of those may bend toward racism. I’m sure that affects scouting. For instance, I have heard in the past that some scouts don’t like scouting in inner cities because they don’t feel safe there, which probably isn’t fair to those cities. We can all do better, but I don’t think there is an overt attempt to keep certain kinds of people out of baseball. The days of Tom Yawkey refusing to sign Jackie Robinson or Willie Mays because they’re black are, I believe, over.

Big Tuna: Do you buy this version of Andrelton Simmons as being fantasy relevant?

Paul Swydan: I mean, the 6 homers are nice, but no. Not unless you’re in a deep AL only league.

M&M: Any level of concern on Gerrit Cole? Last few starts were putrid.

Paul Swydan: Nope. He’ll be fine.

Dan: Jimmy Nelson has looked quite good lately — is it realistic to expect more of the same from him ros? What do you see his final era, and K’s total looking like? Thx!

Paul Swydan: Look for something soon on Nelson from Jeff Sullivan. I know he said he’d be looking at him this week.

Paul Swydan: For my money, the key is the K%.

Paul Swydan: His SwStr% and Contact% are basically identical to his 2015 season, but his K% is ~5% higher. Is that sustainable? I’m not sold just yet.

Samuel: How do you feel about punting? Thinking of dropping Peraza. He and Betts are my two best basestealers plus Yelich. Not enough of a foundation I feel.

Paul Swydan: Sometimes, it has to be done. If you’re going to do it, better to get the first movers advantage and get a big price for your good players.

Big Tuna: What do you expect from Brett Phillips with this call up? Eric Longenhagen mentioned not being convinced he can hit at the MLB level.

Paul Swydan: I saw Adam McCalvy say that he was called up because it’s supposed to be a short-term thing, so I now have no expectations. Hopefully he is good enough to earn another look later in the season.

Thor: Rank these OF for long term leagues: judge, Sano, Conforto, Bellinger

Paul Swydan: Well, I don’t think Sano will qualify as an OF next season, so take that into consideration.

Paul Swydan: But I’d say that all four are very close together for me. I feel like we got this exact same question last week.

JJP: Ryan McMahon will be called up _________ and play which position?

Paul Swydan: Well, he just got to Triple-A five days ago, so I doubt he gets the call to the majors before August.

Paul Swydan: In Triple-A, he’s been playing first and second. I would think he’d be in a similarly flexible role in the majors. No reason to think he supplants Arenado at third.

bob: what do you think we can expect from Jon Gray ROS when he’s back? estimated era/whip k/9?

Paul Swydan: Gray’s injury wasn’t an arm or shoulder injury, it was his foot. So, assuming he’s healthy enough to push off/land on it (I forget which foot, sorry) and maintain his mechanics, I expect him to be the frontline starter he was becoming before his injury.

Eric: Has anyone watched much of Jeff Hoffman? Only 20ip but a 3.02 xfip. 11 k/9. Hoffman or Jon gray ROS?

Paul Swydan: Look, I’m excited about Hoffman, even though I didn’t discuss him in my article about the Rockies last week. But in his 3 starts, he got LAD, PHI and SD. One of those teams is good, the other two are very, very bad.

Paul Swydan: I’ll say Gray ROS, but I think between the pair, Tyler Chatwood’s days in the rotation (and possibly on the team) are numbered.

Paul Swydan: Chatwood got a stay of execution with his own great effort against the Padres over the weekend.

RRH: Cubs have been a disappointment. Obviously they’ve been fine, but the pitching has been a major let-down, the defense hasn’t been nearly as fun to watch, Schwarber & Russell disappointing, Rizzo not being elite, and they’ve been pretty injury-free relative to the obvious disappointments (G’s, Mets, Jays, M’s). Apropos of that: Thoughts on Addison Russell? Real world: how long do you think Javy will keep stealing starts? Is the platoon more permanent than we might think? Fantasy: What’re you doing with Addy in 10 or 12 team redrafts? How’s he compare to other struggling SS-eligibles like Aledmys Diaz and Brad Miller? Or to hot hands like Jordy Mercer and Didi?

Paul Swydan: Real world – Baez will keep taking starts. Joe Maddon can’t help but tinker with his lineup, and that spot is ripe for tinkering. Fantasy – I wouldn’t own Russell in a redraft league.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: What do the Rays do with Brad Miller? His 83 wRC+ is only as high as it is thanks to the walks, and the glove is terrible anywhere on the diamond. Can’t DH, that’s for Dickerson/LoMo if you need a lefty. LoMo is better defensively at first and the Rays believe in Rickie Weeks against lefties (no comment). Then Tim Beckham and Daniel Robertson are playing good defense in the middle infield with adequate bats, and Duffy will eventually return. There just doesn’t seem to be room to give him reps without taking a good bat and/or good glove out of the lineup.

Paul Swydan: I’m not sure they need to do anything. He should be good enough to maintain as a bench bat. And odds are that someone will get hurt, opening up a spot for Duffy.

QMan: How do you rank the best hitting prospects < 23. Bellinger? Mazara? Benintendi?

Paul Swydan: I’d probably have that Correa guy at the top.

Paul Swydan: Then you’ve got the next three.

Paul Swydan: I like Margot, I’m not ready to give up on Orlando Arcia. I like Ian Happ. There’s not a lot of guys after that in the majors right now.

Kid: Let’s talk about Anthony Rendon – I remember thinking, in late April, “I can’t believe I took this bum ahead of Jake Lamb”. Now here we sit on June 6th, and Rendon is at .294/.388/.541. Moving forward, what should I do with him? I’d love to work with the Arenado or Donaldson owner to see if I could sell them Rendon plus an upgrade somewhere else, but is the general consensus on Rendon even high enough to start that discussion?

Paul Swydan: I think it is. But I might just stick with Rendon TBH. He’s solid enough that you don’t need to upgrade from him. I’m a big fan.

JJP: Ronald Acuna, 19 years old and tearing up AA. Hope for the Barves?

Paul Swydan: Hope is a good thing.

Paul Swydan: And yeah, he looks like a stud.

Kid: Would you cough up Stanton for Khris Davis and Schwarber if you needed OF help? 12-team H2H cats, non-keeper.

Paul Swydan: Yes, if only because I’m always wary of a Stanton injury.

Oddball Herrera: Do you think Harper could see the Stanton contract as a cautionary tale about locking oneself into an organization for a very long time? Seems like a guy who is as ridiculously competitive as him would want to go to a current contender on a huge three or four year deal and then be able to walk away should they not be competitive anymore (which is likely to happen eventually if they’re forking over most of their F.A. money to one guy).

Paul Swydan: I suppose it’s possible, but I doubt it. Not only will he have to balance competitiveness against his potential earnings, but I’d also think the MLBPA is pushing these guys to take the most money possible to help set a new bar in free agency.

Big Joey: Would you sell high on any of these guys (Keep forever league)? Sano, Bellinger, Judge or Conforto?

Paul Swydan: Nope, if you’ve got all four, I’d be kicking back and loving life.

It’s Baseball Time: Thoughts on Rizzo gaining 2B eligibility for fantasy? Not sure there’s a way to make a rule against it w/o it being obvious targeting, but it really doesn’t seem to be in the spirit of the (fantasy) game.

Paul Swydan: Nothing wrong with targeting.

Paul Swydan: Myself, I prefer the 10 GS / 20 GP minimum.

Paul Swydan: As a matter of fact, I waited specifically until Benintendi got 10 GS in CF before targeting him for a trade in a LF/CF/RF league.

Kevin: Redraft: Trade Bellinger and Chris Davis for Miggy. Is that too much?

Paul Swydan: Yeah. Right now, Bellinger is a better player than Miggy.

lance mannion: Evening, your thoughts on what Freeman would garner in a trade. Thanks

Paul Swydan: Thanks to his contract, he’d garner plenty, but also because of that contract — which is going to look very cheap in a year or two if it doesn’t already — I don’t think the Braves have any interest in trading him.

Nick: Is Bregman on the table after his slow start? Basically replacement level for over 1/3 of the season.

Paul Swydan: That’s a fair and good question. My gut tells me no, they’ll stick with him and see if he improves, but that they might try to find a veteran in trade to help him along. Having said that…

Harper’s Hair: At what point is Bregman droppable in a 12 team league?

Paul Swydan: I dropped him last weekend, for Chris Taylor. Bregman immediately homered in 2 straight games, but I don’t regret the decision, because Taylor has been very good as well.

Pedro De Pacas: Start Blach v. Mil or Freeland v. Cle tomorrow?

Paul Swydan: Freeland

conforto vs ozuna: Conforto vs Marcell ozuna ros? And for future?

Paul Swydan: Conforto, though I do really like Ozuna as well. He’s just older.

Trent: Are the Yankees most likely to trade for a 3B, a 1B, or a SP come July?

Paul Swydan: I guess by nature of players needed for the position, SP, though I’m not sure they’ll make a deal for any.

Gorp: Two trades on the table. Would you rather give up jones/carpenter for springer or jones/bellinger/bnorris for mookie/fowler?

Paul Swydan: The Springer one.

Paul Swydan: The Sporting News article Ryan Davis wrote about how Fowler is fitting in with the Cardinals didn’t give me any warm fuzzies about him pulling out of his slump any time soon.

Anthony: Is a rotation of Sale/Carrasco/Maeda/Manaea/J.Gray/Rodon good enough to win in a 14 team H2H league with QS instead of W’s? I have Conforto/Ozuna/Fowler/Peralta/Mazara/DeShields, I could deal one of them for a SP…any buy low candidates you’d recommend?

Paul Swydan: Assuming Carrasco stays healthy, I think it’s right on the cusp. Key is how Gray and Rodon come back from their injuries. I’d give it a month and see.

Larson: Could Zack Cozart fetch a top 100 prospect at the trade deadline?

Paul Swydan: As I’m sure you’ve seen, the problem with trading Cozart is that not many teams need a shortstop right now. In a vacuum, yes, Cozart should. But given lack of need barring injury, he may not, and the Reds may be wise to just stick with him.

CaptainPeanutbutter: “And there’s nothing wrong with a 3-4 WAR player.” I feel like this is something that isn’t understood nearly as broadly as it should be. When people say a prospect might be a 3-4 war player and fans think that’s an insult it is maddening (in most cases)

Paul Swydan: Maddening perhaps isn’t how I’d phrase it, but yes, I am familiar with this phenomenon. It just puts the onus on us to educate better.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: All the signs are pointing to a Bauer Breakout. Has it clicked for him?

Paul Swydan: I’ll never be sold on Bauer, sorry.

For Innings: Also, what would renting RA Dickey cost the yankees? He has AL east & NY experience, he can fill in for Montgomery whenever he begins to hit his innings limit/ whoever gets hurt. I think Cashman is gonna hold most of his prospects, especially Torres.

Paul Swydan: I think you’re on the mark. I think the target is a veteran who the team feels can rise to a new challenge, and Dickey could fit that bill perfectly.

Paul Swydan: It wouldn’t cost them anything prohibitive, let’s put it that way.

CaptainPeanutbutter: Re: Fowler in St. Louis, can you expand on what you mean? Didn’t people pretty much just say he was fitting in well and not trying to change things?

Paul Swydan: Yes, but I think the subtext to that is “he’s not really allowed to be himself.” I don’t know, it left me worried.

boss: If your the Redsox what do you do at deadline, already gave up a lot this offseason so who could they afford to target?

Paul Swydan: I think you have to find an innings eating veteran pitcher now, no reason to wait until the deadline with Rodriguez out for a month. Count me as unsold on the Brian Johnson experience.

Paul Swydan: Beyond that, there’s not a ton they can do unless they want to foolishly overpay for Frazier/Moustakas.

Paul Swydan: With Devers still hitting well at Double-A, I’d just call him up.

Ice cubicle: So should we be looking to sell Miggy? It happened this quickly?

Paul Swydan: I don’t think Miggy is done, no. But if you can find someone who is willing to pay full market value for him, you have to think about it. Especially with guys like Justin Smoak having huge seasons.

Jeffery: Do you think there is anything to the idea of hitter “framing”? Like a guy overselling backing off an inside pitch to convince the ump it’s a ball?

Paul Swydan: Sure, I think some guys are capable of doing that. Jeter certainly was.

Paul Swydan: But, in general, I don’t think it’s something most hitters can do. I’ve heard far too many hitters tell me/other reporters that the only way they can hit well is to “see ball, hit ball.” For hitters like that who are just trying to react to the pitch, I can’t imagine they have enough time to work in that sort of “framing” strategy too.

Hello: Why does Joe Kelly’s 102 get smacked around? Other high velocity relievers miss bats with it(even without good command)

Paul Swydan: Because it comes in relatively straight and they’re still able to guess fastball.

Paul Swydan: Having said that, he didn’t allow a run in May. So he’s seemingly figuring some things out.

Terence: What kind of playoff odds would you need to see to be a buyer at the deadline as the GM of the Twins or Brewers? 50% or so?

Paul Swydan: I’d need 70% or higher. They’re ahead of schedule, and in order for me to try to push that schedule ahead with an aggressive trade, I’d need more of a sure thing.

Cody: I can answer the taxation question on gambling winnings: you can offset that income with gambling losses (only to the extent of your winnings however) if you itemize.

Paul Swydan: Cody comes through.

Crazy Aunt Marie : June 6th and Aaron Judge is still hitting .330. What is his avg at years end and how many homers do you think he finishes with?

Paul Swydan: Hi Crazy Aunt Marie.

Paul Swydan: I’ll say .317, but that is based on nothing. It just feels right.

TheManJack: What can we do to make Tanaka great again?

Paul Swydan: I don’t know. Might have to look into it. It’s basically the $20,000 question for the Yankees right now. As I mentioned in my Severino piece yesterday, if the Yankees can get Tanaka right, then they don’t need to trade for a SP.

hscer: oh, so no fantasy questions w/out Jeff then? so, um…what’s the square root of pi?

Paul Swydan: You flatter me with such questions.

Rufus T. Firefly: Do we still believe in Mitch Haninger with all our hearts?

Paul Swydan: Yes, come on back to us Mitch!

Paul Swydan: Great, now I have this song stuck in my head. I blame Rufus.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Would the Yankees entertain a Franco trade? The Phils would be selling low, but the Yanks have a deep farm system, they could pluck a few young prospects.

Paul Swydan: I can’t see that happening, no.

hscer: Paul you should take a poll on what’s older, Facebook at the time of The Social Network or the Social Network now ; p

Paul Swydan: That tweet made me feel so old today. I still remember learning about Facebook back in 2004-2005, when the only way you could register as a non-college student was to create a form for your whole business. I signed up as a Rockies employee. I felt so betrayed when they dropped that requirement. Stupid Facebook.

joe: is this what a peak carlos correa season is?

Paul Swydan: It’s hard to imagine him being better than this, but I want to believe he can be better than this anyway.

Ice cubicle: You buying this Cutch turnaround.

Paul Swydan: I want to so very, very, very much.

Paul Swydan: We were talking about Cutch as a potential Hall of Famer just last year. Feels like a million years ago.

David: I always enjoy looking at actual graphs here but I’m not sure what rolling rates mean-like rolling ten game ISO or something.

Paul Swydan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average

Paul Swydan: Basically, it shows how he performed over time, but by taking a 10-game average at each data point instead of just the actual game logs, you get a smoother, more comprehensible line on your graph. Using just the game logs would give you a lot of sharp peaks and valleys that drown out any possible meaning from the graph.

Paul Swydan: OK everyone, I think we’re going to end here. Thanks for hanging out with me tonight, and on a flying solo night! Back at it next week. Might not be on Tuesday though, since next Tuesday is my birthday and all. Night!