FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/21/15

by Paul Swydan

July 21, 2015

4:09	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody! Join me tonight at 9 pm ET, and we’ll talk some baseball. Or whatever. Jeff may join us later as well. I’m too tired to think up something snappy to say, so we’ll just go with that. Oh, go read Owen’s piece today at THT. He spent a lot of time on it.

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everyone! One second.

9:03	Comment From Henry Rowengartner Have you paid any attention to how Schwarber is looking defensively since he’s been called back up?

9:04	Jeff Zimmerman: I heard it was not great with a couple errors at C his first day behind the plate.

9:04	Paul Swydan: I was watching some tonight. He looked just fine to me. Hammel was burying balls in the dirt, and he was backhanding them pretty fluidly. I guess you would like to see him block the ball instead of back-handing, but it didn’t look like a trainwreck or anything.

9:05	Comment From Joss You are the new pitching coach for the New York Yankees (Congrats!), how do you get Eovaldi to strike folks out?

9:05	Jeff Zimmerman: Demote him?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Stop throwing so many splitters seems like a good first step, but I’d have to look into it more.

9:06	Comment From Matt Hey Brian Johnson, Are you watching Aaron Nola? If you could look like that, it would make me happy.

9:07	Paul Swydan: FWIW, given Johnson’s long layoff, I don’t think it’ll be fair to judge him on tonight’s game. Not that one start is fair to judge a guy on, but it’s even less so in this case.

9:08	Jeff Zimmerman: I haven’t seen anything tonight, just happy to not have a car stalled out because of flooding.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Actually, looking at Eovaldi’s whiff %’s per pitch, it looks like he should throw more splitters and fewer four seamers.

9:08	Paul Swydan: Ya, Jeff drove down this street! https://twitter.com/thestor…

9:09	Jeff Zimmerman: Not one of my best ideas.

9:09	Comment From Faylio+Simpalotabop What are your ethics when it comes to trading with the bottom couple of teams in a seasonal league? My rule is, if you aren’t mathematically eliminated, you should still be in the trading game.

9:10	Paul Swydan: I don’t know, it’s been….nearly a decade?….since I played in a redraft league. But your rule seems fine.

9:11	Jeff Zimmerman: Go for the trades, but the bottom few teams should have something “bad” happen to them like buying beer next year for the draft or having to write 400 words on the merits of Jeff Francoeur

9:11	Comment From Compton From the owner’s perspective, the answer to the pole has to be Tigers given Ilitch’s age, right?

9:12	Paul Swydan: Oh you threw me off with “pole” vs “poll.” I think actually because of Ilitch’s age their decision is the easiest – they need to be in, every year.

9:13	Paul Swydan: I actually think the Orioles’ decision is the hardest. They have a good shot at the playoffs but not a great one, and they have some good young players, but not enough to be overly excited about the future. They’re stuck smack dab in the middle.

9:13	Jeff Zimmerman: Yea, the Tigers will keep on trying. Reminds me a bit of the Astros before they completely rebuilt the team

9:13	Comment From zwibi Just looking for your opinion on Kris Medlen. Seems to be off and on with his pitches, which can be expected considering the circumstances. But what is your outlook on what he can contribute, especially with the royals now sending Yordano down.

9:13	Paul Swydan: This is one for Jeff.

9:14	Jeff Zimmerman: Bullpen arm only for now, 2nd TJS surgery is tough to come back from, especially first season. I expect nothing, anything above that is gravy

9:15	Comment From Minty Shocker! Brett Anderson is now hurt. If the Dodgers don’t give into other teams’ high demands for SP, what’re the chances that Urias does surface in August?

9:16	Paul Swydan: Nooooooo! I’d hate to think that I jinxed him. I still think not great for Urias. Jose De Leon maybe…

9:16	Jeff Zimmerman: I expect Urias to be up in a week or so. Also Zack Lee may see time.

9:17	Comment From nt desmond and/or fister still get and decline qos assuming neither one dramatically improves?

9:18	Jeff Zimmerman: Not sure what you are asking

9:18	Paul Swydan: I think Desmond getting the QO depends on whether they want to commit to Turner for Opening Day. Fister, probably he gets one.

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: QO, yes for Desmond, no for Fister.

9:19	Comment From asfdasdf Trade Sano for Beltre? Keeper league? OBP league?

9:19	Jeff Zimmerman: No, Yes, No.

9:19	Paul Swydan: Neither. Hang on to Sano. Beltre is not hitting this year, and so whatever Sano does should be just as good.

9:20	Comment From jerry We’re going to be wondering how the Nats got Trea Turner and Joe Ross for Steven f’n Souza for a long time, aren’t we?

9:22	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. I am not sold on Turner

9:22	Paul Swydan: Well, I think the answer is that the Rays aren’t perfect. But even from the jump, you had to be buying Souza as an All-Star-type player. Many of us were, but I remember Keith Law killing the trade immediately.

9:23	Comment From jv Who is the best two keepers from this group in an OBP league that starts 2 catchers? Street $4, Belt $10, B. Crawford $10, Norris $1

9:24	Jeff Zimmerman: Norris then Belt or Street ……………………………………………………………………………………………….Crawford

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: I am note sure what happened to Paul, so I will continue on.

9:28	Paul Swydan: Sorry, my computer died!

9:28	Jeff Zimmerman: There he is

9:28	Paul Swydan: I was saying Norris and Crawford.

9:28	Paul Swydan: My computer does this thing now where it dies without giving me a low battery warning. It’s awesome.

9:28	Comment From QTip You like your young star to be low average slugger like Joc Pederson or a solid across the board Mookie Betts?

9:29	Paul Swydan: I prefer the Mookie profile, but I wouldn’t really quibble with either approach.

9:29	Jeff Zimmerman: Across the board so he isn’t stuck at one position.

9:29	Comment From Ryan Cozart and Suarez both looked/look good this year. If you were the Reds, would you try to move Phillips at the deadline (say, to the Yankees, for instance), and move Suarez or Cozart to 2B next year?

9:30	Paul Swydan: If I was the Reds, I’d be trying to move the whole team more or less, and that certainly includes Phillips and Cozart. I’d hang onto Suarez over Cozart, he has more years of control left.

9:30	Jeff Zimmerman: The Reds make trade?! When one finally happens I will believe it.

9:31	Paul Swydan: The Reds and Mets making a trade might explode the universe.

9:31	Comment From Tony Two Bags Is Ben Zobrist enough of a difference maker for the Mets to make a run at the Wild Card, or do they need a Upton/Bruce/Gomez to truly be a player?

9:32	Paul Swydan: He’d need to have a Peavy-like turnaround at this point. Realistically, the Mets need 2 Zobrist types, or the home run move. Unfortunately, I don’t expect the Mets do either of those things.

9:33	Jeff Zimmerman: I think the Mets may need to be looking for several small upgrades. The lineup is so bad that one or even two hitter won’t be enough

9:33	Comment From John rocker Off the top of your head rank bogaerts and joc in dynasty at their positions and overall

9:34	Paul Swydan: At their positions, Bogaerts is top 3, Pederson is top 15 or so. Overall, Joc is closer to the top.

9:34	Jeff Zimmerman: 12 for XB, 25 for JP. Overall 75ish for both

9:35	Comment From owensurett35 Should the Mets be concerned about their bullpen heading toward the deadline?

9:36	Paul Swydan: Not especially. They could use some upgrades, but they have bigger fish to fry, and Mejia is back now.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Not as much as their lineup. Bullpens can be made easier, especially at the end of the season with minor league starters moved to the bullpen

9:37	Comment From QTip Cueto hurt? Limited to ~65 pitches the last start before the break, no command his last start.

9:37	Jeff Zimmerman: Maybe. Velo down a bit and has some issues throwing strikes

9:37	Paul Swydan: I forget who it was that tweeted it, but someone asked a team exec if there was anything to worry about with Cueto’s last start, and the reply he got was “Everything.” So, that’s not promising. It would serve the Reds right for waiting so long.

9:38	Comment From Flog How many teams have 8 hitters that are better than the Mets best hitter? 25?

9:38	Paul Swydan: Mets fans, ladies and gentlemen!

9:39	Comment From Guest Should the Red Sox purge the team of anything of value and just retool around Betts,Bogaerts,..etc.? I mean I feel like they might be best off taking a year to retool instead of trying to dive back in

9:39	Jeff Zimmerman: I can pick a player worse than Duda’s bat in the AL Central. Worse lineup, Mets or White Sox

9:40	Paul Swydan: I don’t think that’s realistic. I’m not sure how much trade value broken players like Pedroia or large contract players like Porcello and Sandoval have.

9:40	Jeff Zimmerman: They will dive back in 2016, but maybe pay for a real pitcher or two

9:40	Comment From Mike Tulo/Arenado/JD Martinez or Harper/Desmond/Turner in points league?

9:41	Paul Swydan: For just this year? Easily the Tulo side. Dynasty? Way tougher, but if you believe in Desmond, then the Harper side.

9:41	Jeff Zimmerman: I like the first three better. All three 1st to 3rd rounders.

9:41	Comment From Dan Are we counting Mets pitchers in this exercise?

9:42	Paul Swydan: Hahaha. Sure?

9:42	Comment From Flog Wouldn’t Harvey for Puig be the answer?

9:42	Paul Swydan: I think that’s overrating Harvey a fair bit.

9:43	Jeff Zimmerman: Yes, but not sure the Mets would trade Harvey. Teams over value their own players.

9:43	Comment From Ryan The Yankees claim they’ll have a quiet trade deadline, but do you believe that’s how it will play out in NY?

9:43	Paul Swydan: Never.

9:44	Jeff Zimmerman: I think it will be quite. I only see the Yankees making a splash if they take a player to give the other team some salary relief

9:45	Comment From Yan Do you believe Tanaka is a good keeper or should I try to trade him for a safer option?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I would want a safer bet, personally.

9:45	Jeff Zimmerman: You probably should move him.

9:46	Comment From Yan What can we expect from Z.Lee? Back-end starter?

9:47	Jeff Zimmerman: I am not sure, people were down on him coming into the season. Now people are singing his praises. I think 2 to 5

9:47	Paul Swydan: Yeah, it seems unlikely he’ll keep up the low ERAs at the major league level without a serious uptick in Ks.

9:47	Paul Swydan: His LOB% is over 80%.

9:48	Jeff Zimmerman: Cody Anderson laughs at that number.

9:48	Comment From Cuddyers Knee So is this the Evan Longoria to expect going forward, or does he have any shot at rebounding and offering some value?

9:48	Paul Swydan: There’s always a chance, and it’s the one of the things I’m most looking forward to in the second half.

9:49	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

9:49	Jeff Zimmerman: I could maybe see a little more power as he has dealt with some injuries, but right now I see no signs of a rebound.

9:49	Comment From Cage The Royals have to trade for a starting pitcher right? That rotation isn’t going to take you all the way in October.

9:50	Paul Swydan: I mean, they don’t HAVE to, they were a miracle Bumgarner performance from winning the World Series. But it’d probably be a good idea.

9:50	Jeff Zimmerman: I think they will trade for one.

9:51	Comment From Joesh Cingrani or Bolsinger tomorrow?

9:51	Paul Swydan: I’ll say Cingrani.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Though both seem like good plays.

9:51	Jeff Zimmerman: Bolsinger, I believe in the Dodgers more than the Reds

9:51	Comment From Gimp Should I start Graverman tonight?

9:52	Paul Swydan: Our game odds have it a dead heat – http://www.fangraphs.com/li…

9:52	Paul Swydan: I’ll say no. Blue Jays are always scary.

9:52	Jeff Zimmerman: I have Graveman at a 43% of winning: https://docs.google.com/spr…

9:53	Comment From Minty To flip against Lee, if Urias was called up, what could we expect?

9:53	Paul Swydan: I mean, he’s 18. Almost 19. But still. I wouldn’t expect anything from him. Anything you got would be like free bonus happy time.

9:53	Paul Swydan: He’s made 7 starts above A ball.

9:55	Jeff Zimmerman: I guess I am higher on him. If he can pitch, let him pitch. Looking at his minor league game logs, he is not completely consistent in AA

9:55	Paul Swydan: There have only been 3 19 or younger pitchers to pitch in the majors since 2000. Bumgarner, Felix and Edwin Jackson: http://www.baseball-referen…

9:56	Paul Swydan: One of those things is not like the others.

9:56	Paul Swydan: The last one before that was Ankiel, and that didn’t work out so hot either.

9:56	Comment From Nick Solve an argument. Who is the better fantasy player ROS – Correa or Blackmon?

9:56	Paul Swydan: Correa.

9:57	Jeff Zimmerman: Correa

9:57	Comment From Compton What should the Pirates do about their temporary IF issue? With Harrison and Mercer due back in about 6 weeks, should they try to survive with a SeanRod/Brent Morel combo, or borrow from the future for a replacement that may not even be a starter come playoff time?

9:58	Paul Swydan: I don’t know that they HAVE to make a move, but they should have no qualms about making a big move, as Jordy Mercer has basically been and is basically a replacement player. No need to hold a starting spot for him.

9:58	Jeff Zimmerman: Isn’t Willie Bloomquist available?

9:58	Comment From Rick If winning the World Series depended on your team getting a line drive single, who would you send up to the plate?

9:59	Jeff Zimmerman: Miggy if healthy

9:59	Paul Swydan: I am trying to come up with reasons why it shouldn’t be Mike Trout and am failing.

9:59	Paul Swydan: So I guess I’ll take him.

10:00

Comment From Steve Urkel
Would you rather have Suarez or Iglesias for the next 5 years?

10:00

Jeff Zimmerman: Iglesias,

10:01

Paul Swydan: I think Iglesias, just because he doesn’t strike out a lot, and the defense is superb.

10:01

Comment From Gimp
“Michael Cuddyer”–Sandy Alderson

10:01

Paul Swydan: He is the answer to every question and the question to every answer. Or something.

10:02

Jeff Zimmerman: Something alright

10:02

Paul Swydan: Anyway, I am very tired, so I think we’re going to call it a night. Thanks as always for hanging out, you guys are the best.

10:02

Jeff Zimmerman: Bye

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG