FanGraphs After Dark Chat – 7/26/16

by Paul Swydan

July 26, 2016

9:01	Paul Swydan: Hi everybody!

9:01	Paul Swydan: I think you’re stuck with just me tonight. Jeff is out with his better half.

9:01	BK: Given that the cost of Upton was 1.5 years/$5M and a ~30th ranked prospect, why wouldn’t more teams be in on that?

9:02	Paul Swydan: Maybe they were but the Padres just like the Blue Jays prospect better.

9:02	Paul Swydan: I mean, we definitely heard that Cleveland was in on Upton. Baltimore too.

9:02	Orioles Fan: It’s not dark yet…are you in Europe?

9:02	Paul Swydan: It’s dark by the start of the chat.

9:03	Hendrik : It just turned midnight and I’m now 23!

9:03	Paul Swydan: Hey, congrats!

9:03	Orioles Fan: You forgot some games on best matchup. And I’m not just talking about the O’s game, despite my name.

9:03	Paul Swydan: There are 2 criteria for best matchup – really good pitching matchup, or two above .500 teams. Try to just pick the ones where both qualify.

9:03	Jeff: If you’re the Dodgers, do you part with Urias and a few other prospects for Sale?

9:04	Paul Swydan: Nope. I don’t think it’s their year. I think their best strategy is to ride or die with what they have and see if SF keeps imploding.

9:04	Orioles Fan: Given what the Yankees got for Chapman, what would Britton be worth on the trade market?

9:05	Paul Swydan: Quite a bit. But that doesn’t mean they should trade him. They’re still trying to make the playoffs.

9:05	OddBall Herrera: This question is unclear, is it Your (the writer) mom’s basement or Your (the reader) mom’s basement we’re talking about? Because that changes things considerably

9:05	Paul Swydan: Well, my mom (and dad) never finished their basement, so it’s not really that pleasant to be in. The guy who built it sucked. Water still gets in it from time to time.

9:05	Kevins Dad: I’m halfway through the bar exam. Any advice for day 2 tomorrow?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Just try to remember that it could be worse – you could be trying to pass the CPA exam! (statistically it’s a harder exam to pass)

9:06	Matt: What would the Pirates return for Melancon look like, in context of the Chapman trade?

9:06	Paul Swydan: Not as high. Melancon isn’t a game changer in the way that Chapman is.

9:07	Ben: How do you feel about Mondesi? Very toolsy but seems like a bit of a hacker still. I think his ceiling is that of maybe Reyes and Hanley combo?

9:08	Paul Swydan: That’s a tough ceiling to hang on any kid. I certainly don’t see Hanley’s power. The steals, maybe. He clearly has speed.

9:09	asabin: Do you think third base coaches should send runners more in sac fly situations?

9:10	Paul Swydan: I mean, sort of, from a chaos theory perspective, but I doubt the odds would increase that much. Major leaguers are good at throwing the ball to home plate, and now that collisions aren’t allowed, it very much is a race to the plate.

9:10	asabin: Do you think outfielders should intentionally drop fly balls in foul territory when there’s a runner on third and less than two outs?

9:11	Paul Swydan: So, it depends on the situation. Late in the game, 7th, 8th, 9th, in a close game, yes. Early in the game, or when the score doesn’t dictate such chicanery, then no.

9:11	njs: the “industry” preferred swanson over bregman in the draft yet its bregman who “everyone” is raving about now… did the dbacks get it wrong? is this just scouts being scoutey (billy beane was right)? or is there another explanation? thoughts?

9:12	Paul Swydan: I think part of the reason the Dbacks made Swanson available is that they realized very quickly he wasn’t a typical #1 pick. IE they missed on him. Maybe not a hard miss, but that his value was inflated.

9:12	Paul Swydan: Hey people. Bear with me. I’m going to restart. My computer is wonky right now. I’ll stay a couple extra minutes to make up for it. BRB.

9:16	Paul Swydan: OK I’m back. Sorry.

9:17	Ryan: What would you give up to acquire Shelby Miller?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Not much, to be honest. I was never a big fan, and didn’t think he was that great last year.

9:17	Dave: What’s your take on Schwarber?

9:17	Paul Swydan: I think he’s overrated.

9:17	Ryan: Which playoff contender has the biggest need for a starting pitcher upgrade?

9:17	Paul Swydan: Has to be the Orioles.

9:18	Vic Romano: Worst sequel to a great movie — Major League 2, Caddyshack 2, or Blues Brothers 2?

9:18	Paul Swydan: Hate to disappoint, but I’ve never seen any of those movies.

9:18

Jim Lonborg: “Irrespective of cost” makes it hard to answer the Sale question. I mean, if Hahn and Williams were drunk enough to trade him for a couple of random mid-level prospects, why not–if he goes nuts you just trade him away again. But for what the actual cost would be, the craziness question becomes harder to avoid.

9:18	Paul Swydan: Fair point. I guess I meant more “it won’t cost your team more to get him than another team.”

9:19	Viktor: What’s wrong with Rosenthal?

9:19	Paul Swydan: Matheny ran him into the ground?

9:19	JD: I know the Cubs said they did their due diligence in regards to Chapman domestic violence, but how much does that really matter to teams trying to win?

9:20	Paul Swydan: How do you know they did due diligence? Because they said they did? I wouldn’t presume to know anything of the sort.

9:21

Paul Swydan: The bottom line is that it’s not going to matter until more teams find themselves faced with this decision and choose to part ways with the offending player. In the past year, the teams making the correct decision were the Reds and Rockies. Hopefully more teams join that list when confronted with it.

9:21	JD: Who gets more starts the rest of the year Luis Severino or Adam Warren?

9:21	Paul Swydan: I would guess Warren.

9:21

Jim Lonborg: Thoughts on the Red Sox catching situation? Is Leon the primary catcher if the team makes the playoffs? (You can say Lucroy but I won’t believe you.) I feel like Vazquez is the best knuckleball handler, though the rumor was he was in the doghouse for overriding the coaching staff on Wright’s pitch selection.

9:22	Paul Swydan: If that’s what finally got him sent to the minors, great. I think it’s Sandy Leon’s show until he cools off. When he does, it’ll become more of a discussion, but Vazquez isn’t even hitting in Triple-A now. I think they should have traded Vazquez when they had the chance, to be honest.

9:22	Paul: 10 team mixed, H2H, fairly shallow. We have 4 OF slots and one Util. With Dee coming back take my Util slot, I have way too many OF. What do you do with Harper, Herrera, Puig, Pederson, Beltran, Naquin, and Cain? Limited keepers, Harper not eligible. Thanks!

9:23	Paul Swydan: Trade Naquin while his BABIP is still through the roof.

9:23	Murdoc: Would it be worthwhile for the Rockies to have their pitchers exclusively work out of the stretch?

9:23	Paul Swydan: It worked for Ubaldo Jimenez. I don’t know that this idea needs to be exclusive to Rockies pitchers though. I think the majority of pitchers probably would be more successful out of the stretch.

9:24	st. catherine: is forsaking urias for sale or archer a prudent move for the dodgers?

9:24	Paul Swydan: I could squint and see it for Sale. But definitely not for Archer.

9:24

Harry Caray’s Ghost: Do you think there’s any chance that Maddon will use Chapman and Rondon based on matchups, or is he just going to use a standard setup/closer formula with them? I mean, if Harper or Ortiz is coming up in the 8th in a one-run playoff game, I’d rather see Chapman come in there and then use Rondon in the 9th…

9:25	Paul Swydan: Oh, I think Maddon will play matchups. The issue will be what happens when he gets too cute with the matchups and his pitchers don’t like it.

9:25	Murdoc: Do you think Tyler Anderson can supplant Jorge De La Rosa as the Rockies’ trusty lefty or is he more likely to end up like Christian Friedrich?

9:25	Paul Swydan: I like what I see so far, so put me more in the trusty lefty category for now.

9:25	Minty: Is Moncada the Sox 3B June, 2017?

9:26	Paul Swydan: Depends on what happens with Sandoval. I want to say yes, but Sandoval is a huge wild card right now.

9:26	This is not Dave Dombrowski: Benintendi, Swihart, E Rodriguez and Kopech too much for Sale? How about with Devers instead of Kopech?

9:26	Paul Swydan: …..It’s probably just right for my tastes, but I don’t know that it would satisfy the White Sox.

9:26	Andy: Need some starting pitching and was offered Maeda for Dahl in a keeper league. Is that enough or should I aim higher?

9:27	Paul Swydan: It’s enough, but I’d aim higher.

9:27	The Cincinnati Kid: Pretend you’re the GM of the Angels AND Astros (just roll with it.) You HAVE to complete a trade that sends Trout to the Astros, but is fair for both teams. What does it look like? Bregman, Reed, and…?

9:27	Paul Swydan: More. A lot more. Probably have to put Correa in it.

9:28	Chris: 5×5 ottoneu.. $30 Thor and $17 Schwarber for $43 Arenado and $7 Nola.. Who wins?

9:28	Paul Swydan: Arenado/Nola side.

9:29	Paul Swydan: Total $ value is basically even, but the distribution of Arenado/Nola is way more bankable. Thor might be hurt and Schwarber is hurt.

9:29	Dave: Is there any reason why a player as talented as Hosmer gets into prolonged slumps? It happens every year at one time or another for him. Sometimes he has amazing pitch recognition, and other times he looks like a terrible hitter.

9:30	Paul Swydan: I’m trying to answer this in a non-derogatory way and failing.

9:31	Paul Swydan: Unfortunately, Hosmer just isn’t that great of a hitter for a first baseman, so he is going to be subject to cold periods.

9:31	Paul Swydan: http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2016&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=17,d&page=2_30

9:31	Jim Lonborg: Is Michael Martinez really better than Marco Hernandez? I haven’t really been impressed so far, though it’s been a small sample and the wind thing was weird.

9:32	Paul Swydan: No, definitely not, but Hernandez wasn’t getting enough reps to be learning anything with the big club. Rare instance where I think having a vet around instead of a kid is OK.

9:32	Joe D: In a dynasty league would you trade bregman for either matz or g. Cole?

9:33	Paul Swydan: For Cole, maybe. But I want to see Bregman play for a month or so before I do it.

9:33	Minty: Stroman was overrated going into the year. Is this who he is, or is it just an off year and he’ll improve some next year?

9:34	Paul Swydan: The answer is that this is closer to who he is. Right now, he’s having some bad home run luck, but with his GB% down he’s just not as good. He needs to K more batters. I assumed that would come and it hasn’t.

9:34	Laughable: Sale to the yankees for Mateo, Torres, and Gary Sanchez, maybe add some lottery tickets?

9:35	Paul Swydan: Add more than lottery tickets.

9:35	Paul Swydan: I don’t really see the White Sox trading him.

9:35	Mike: Turner is hot, Gonzalez is hot, Howie is hot, Grandal is hot, Dodger bats are coming back to life. With their surplus and given where they sit in the standings, you can’t believe the Dodgers should do nothing at all, right?

9:36	Paul Swydan: But I do believe that. I just don’t see them as being of the ilk of the Cubs or Nationals, and Base Runs bears that out as well.

9:37	Cowdisciple: RE: Sale – they have to consider it if Urias is really in play, right? Obviously there would have to be more, but that is a legitimate centerpiece.

9:37	Paul Swydan: See, I don’t get this. When do you want the White Sox to be a contender? If they trade Sale, they have to tear it all down, and they’re not really built that way. If they’re having a fire sale this week, sure, let’s go get Urias. But I just don’t see it.

9:38	Oliver : Hasn’t Melancons stats (outside of Ks obviously) been better than Chapmans over the last 3 years?

9:38	Paul Swydan: They very well may be, but that has little bearing on future expectations.

9:38	Pie: When do you think an appropriate trade deadline is for a keeper league?

9:39	Paul Swydan: I don’t think there is one. I hate trading deadlines. It’s fantasy baseball, there doesn’t need to be limits.

9:39	Paul Swydan: If you insist on one, then Sept. 1.

9:39	Minty: Dynasty. I have Bryant/Arenado. If Correa moves to 3B, what do I do?

9:39	Paul Swydan: For now, nothing. He’ll be SS eligible next year.

9:40	Stevil: The Pirates are loaded with outfield options, and Meadows isn’t too far away. Who gets squeezed out?

9:40	Paul Swydan: Dave’s theory that they’ll keep Meadows in Triple-A for a year and only bring him up when McCutchen walks or someone gets hurt is probably the best working theory.

9:40	Marcus Banks: Yankees stockpiling young talent just to go out and spend it on one great player (i.e. Sale) doesn’t make sense to me when the rest of the roster is largely garbage.

9:41	Paul Swydan: This is also a good point. I especially don’t see them pushing chips in on a pitcher who might blow up and need TJ.

9:41	Marcus Banks: How do you pronounce Swydan and what nationality is it?

9:41	Paul Swydan: I’m 100% Lebanese. It’s pronounces Swide-an.

9:41	Cowdisciple: I don’t see that the White Sox have a real shot to be a contender in Sale’s remaining years. Also, I am a Twins fan and hate them. But I still think their best shot would be to trade Sale now for an absurd package.

9:42	Paul Swydan: Sorry, but I don’t see this at all. The White Sox are a .500 team, and that’s with an inexplicable decline from Abreu. If they keep adding to their core, they could easily luck into a few 90-win seasons.

9:43	Rick: The price to acquire relievers may have gone up in recent years, but the Royals are still crazy for asking for Giolito in exchange for Davis, right?

9:44	Paul Swydan: Well, they’d be crazy to expect Giolito in return, but they’re definitely not crazy to ask for him.

9:44	yolo: Reddick is the best OF on the market, right? What dsort of return would he get? Worth packaging with Hill for something on the major side?

9:45	Paul Swydan: I wrote today that CarGo is the best outfielder on the market, but if they’re really pulling him back, then Reddick is among the top 2-3 options, yes.

9:45	Paul Swydan: Reddick is an interesting case in that he’s the safest in one regard — plays offense and defense both relatively well, so fewer holes in his game compared to Jay Bruce types — but he’s also the least safe in that he always seems to be hurt.

9:46	Mike: Do you think the Dodgers should try to improve at all? Maybe go after Rich Hill and/or an outfielder? With their surplus, they can’t just sit and do nothing given where they are in the standings, right?

9:46	Paul Swydan: Sure, they should be trying to upgrade on the margins, but with the way the week has started, I’m not sure sensible upgrades are in the cards right now.

9:46	johnny5alive: So its pretty clear the mets missed an opportunity last year they might not get again for a while,.. if you are them, do you do anything, or just hope to get into the playoffs and say “hey playoffs two years in a row”

9:47

Paul Swydan: “Missed an opportunity” is pretty disrespectful to the Royals, who did plenty to win that series on its merits. Not like the Mets handed it to them. Having said that, yes, I do think that was the best Mets baseball we’ll see for awhile. Again, I’d be upgrading on the margins but I wouldn’t be going nuts.

9:47	Jim Lonborg: Do you have any sense of how Amaro has been as first base coach? How does one even measure that?

9:48	Paul Swydan: None whatsoever. It’s definitely one of the hardest coaching positions to quantify.

9:48	Cowdisciple: Inexplicable decline from Abreu coupled with inexplicable All-Star season from Adam Eaton. They might get into the playoffs, but I can’t see them being anything but a long shot. BaseRuns sees them as a 46-53 team. Where is the improvement going to come from?

9:48	Paul Swydan: You must be the low man on Adam Eaton. I’ve always really liked Eaton.

9:49	Paul Swydan: I mean, Eaton was a 3-win player in 2014 and 2015. I don’t see how anything he’s doing this year is out of the blue.

9:49	Harry Carey’s Ghost: First base coaches are judged by how much batter gear/pads/armor they can hold in their hands/pockets.

9:50	Paul Swydan: Yes, the best first base coaches go the extra mile and have hooks welded directly into their bodies for additional storage capabilities. You have to be dedicated to your craft if you’re going to succeed in this world.

9:50	Eric: Would you trade Duffy and Reyes for Wainwright? I don’t need Reyes speed.

9:51	Paul Swydan: If your league is kosher with you trading players on the DL, sure.

9:51	Oliver : Glasnow looks… Raw. Like wow so much talent but so raw.

9:51	Paul Swydan: Guys that walk a lot of batters always seem more raw.

9:51	James: Who else do you see the Yankees moving, if anyone?

9:52	Paul Swydan: You would think that if they think they’re out of it they have to trade Beltran. Other than that, your guess is as good as mine. I don’t see them moving Miller, FWIW.

9:52	Cowdisciple: I actually love Eaton too. Just not sure where the W-Sox can go from AL Central maybe-contenders to serious players in the postseason. Us Twins fans have a lot of beer-fueled angst right now. Who will be our next GM?

9:53	Paul Swydan: Catcher, shortstop, one outfield spot and DH right off the jump, and luckily, the latter two are two of the easiest spots to upgrade.

9:54	Oliver : Ichiro is a top ____ hitter all time?

9:54	Paul Swydan: 50″

9:54	Paul Swydan: ?

9:55	Paul Swydan: That’s a tough one. I’d be more comfortable saying top 100. He is great, but there are so many great hitters to consider, especially if we’re including segregation-era hitters.

9:55	Eric: Danny Duffy and Jose Reyes for Adam wainwright. I didn’t know one of them was on the DL

9:55	Paul Swydan: Sorry, figured you meant Matt Duffy.

9:56	Paul Swydan: I think I still would do the deal if I was you.

9:56	Petersburg Rays: You think the Marlins sustain their pace and pick up a wild card?

9:56	Paul Swydan: I think they’ll fall off slightly, but that still could be good enough to nab a playoff bid.

9:57	johnny5alive: lets say the mets lose their next 5 games – do they even think about selling come Sunday?

9:57	Paul Swydan: I’m sure they’ve thought about selling already.

9:58	Paul Swydan: The problem is they don’t have much to sell. Duda, Walker, Bartolo, that’s about it.

9:58	Harry Carey’s Ghost: Random Ichiro fact – When he gets into the HOF, only Pete Rose (70’s) and Mark Grace (90’s) will have led a decade in hits but not be in the HOF.

9:58	Paul Swydan: That’s not really an Ichiro fact, that’s more a Pete Rose/Mark Grace fact.

9:58	Paul Swydan: But I liked it nonetheless.

9:59	Paul Swydan: Blown away that Joe Kelly was just brought into that game, and even more blown away that he didn’t give up 3 runs.

9:59	Oliver : As a Pittsburgh native and growing up watching Walker go from Star catcher at nearby high school to good and then very good Pirate, this slump in NY is tough to watch. What’s he looking at contract wise after the season?