FanGraphs Chat – 5/1/13

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May 1, 2013
11:42 Dave Cameron: We’re about 15 minutes from starting up, so feel free to fill the queue with your questions now.
12:01 Comment From Joel
Is there anyone in the Angels organization who is telling Josh Hamilton to stop swinging at everything, and if so, why won’t he listen?
12:02 Dave Cameron: It’s the million dollar question, right? It’s possible that it’s a physical issue of pitch recognition, so we should leave open the possibility that this is Hamilton trying to be selective, but yeah, it seems odd that he keeps hacking away despite pitchers hardly ever throwing him a strike.
12:02 Comment From zack
Does Tim Hudson have a legitimate hall of fame case? He has the same ERA+ as John Smoltz.
12:03 Dave Cameron: I think he’s going to miss out. 200 wins won’t impress the voters, and he never had a run as the best pitcher in baseball.
12:03 Comment From Billy
Josh Reddick: A little early still or concerned?

12:03 Dave Cameron: Well, last year came out of nowhere, so I don’t think it’s wrong to think that he’s not going to do that again.
12:03 Comment From Jeff Karstens modeling agent
Which OF would be better defensively over the course of an entire season? Left-Center – Michael Bourn & Right-Center – Ben Revere or a traditional OF of LF – Josh Willingham, CF – Brennan Boesch, RF – Mark Trumbo
12:04 Dave Cameron: Three guys can cover more ground than two.
12:04 Comment From Nick
If a tree falls in the forest and no one is around to hear it is it still all A-Rods fault?
12:04 Dave Cameron: Seems reasonable to me.
12:04 Comment From Tim
What should the Braves do with McCann/Gattis when McCann is back? A platoon to start?
12:05 Dave Cameron: Gattis will probably play some OF, and McCann doesn’t have to catch everyday. There’s room for both.
12:05 Comment From Eric
If the Ms fired Jack Z at the end of the season, would if be assumed that people like Tom Mcnamara would go too? I’m still a big fan of how they draft and would hate to lose him.
12:05 Dave Cameron: New GMs bring in their own people.
12:05 Comment From Guest
I keep waiting for Brandon Morrow to turn things around (I know it’s only May 1st). Am I waiting in vain for a premier strikeout guy with an ERA below 4?
12:06 Dave Cameron: He’s never really been that for a sustained period of time, so yes.
12:06 Comment From Ryan
Camden Yards or new Yankee stadium?
12:06 Dave Cameron: Camden. New Yankee Stadium’s primary purpose seems to be announcing that the team has a lot of money.
12:06 Comment From LF
Do you think Starling Marte is for real?
12:06 Dave Cameron: Starling Marte is probably an average hitter who plays good defense and runs well.
12:07 Dave Cameron: So, if that’s what you think he is, sure.
12:07 Comment From Chris Sabo
is there any truth to the theory that “hitting is contagious”?
12:07 Dave Cameron: Some, sure. It’s easier to hit with men on base than the bases empty, so getting hits makes it more likely that more hits will follow.
12:07 Comment From Isaac
Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Coco Crisp, and Michael Bourn have all seen the same percentage of fastballs since 2010. How do you explain that?
12:08 Dave Cameron: Pitchers pitch to their own strengths more than hitter weaknesses.
12:08 Comment From Justin
Odds both LA teams miss the playoffs?
12:08 Dave Cameron: Pretty good, I’d say. 60%?
12:08 Comment From Guest
How sick is Detoit’s rotation right now? 3 of the top 5 SPs in all of MLB per WAR, plus Fister ranking 18th pending today’s start. Even without getting anything from Porcello, they are 1.3 WAR ahead of the next closest group of starters…
12:08 Dave Cameron: Part of that is that they haven’t given up any home runs, which will regress, but yeah, this rotation is really great.
12:08 Comment From The Oriole Bird
Manny Machado is tied with Bryce Harper with 1.4 WAR this year. He is only 3 months and 10 days older than Harper. Wow. Even though about 0.7 wins have come from defense, he is awesome, right?
12:09 Dave Cameron: You have to regress Machado’s UZR far more than Harper’s hitting, but yeah, Machado is very good.
12:09 Comment From e
concerns about zunino’s strikeout rate? does he have a long swing path that is particularly susceptible to strikeouts or is he just in the learning process of pitch recognition?
12:10 Dave Cameron: He’s seeing a constant stream of breaking balls for the first time in his life. He’ll adjust, but it’s mainly pitch recognition. He’s killing fastballs and getting fooled on off-speed stuff.
12:10 Comment From Josh
Nate McLouth?!?! Really?? Obviously not totally sustainable, but is showing some real interesting peripherals. Any thoughts on this bizarre rebirth?
12:10 Dave Cameron: Even when he collapsed, he could hit righties some. The Orioles are using him the right way.
12:10 Comment From Colin
In basketball, a team is at a disadvantage if it’s playing the second game of a back to back, and the other team didn’t play the day before. Is this also true in baseball?
12:11 Dave Cameron: To a much smaller degree, sure. The team playing back to back is more likely to have a reliever unavailable because of usage, while the team coming off the day off should have a fresh bullpen. But the amount of difference that makes on expected winning percentage is very small.
12:11 Comment From The Oriole Bird
I expect MLB teams will continue to force Bauer to throw strikes, unlike his minor league opponents. Do you think we’ll see much improvement in him after this next callup?
12:12 Dave Cameron: Improve from 7 BB/9 or whatever his MLB line is? Sure. Improve enough to justify the hype? No.
12:12 Comment From GSon
How can you say that the Mariners are “Lucky” that Josh Hamilton didn’t sign with them.. the M’s offense has been anemic?
12:12 Dave Cameron: If they had signed Josh Hamilton, it would be even worse.
12:13 Comment From Philip
After a disappointing month for the Nationals, what’s one area that they can expect to improve through regression and one/area player that’s cause for serious concern?
12:13 Dave Cameron: The pitching will be better than it has been. Adam LaRoche’s terrible start is a concern.
12:13 Comment From Chris Sabo
what do you say to people who think the baseball season is too long?
12:13 Dave Cameron: “We can’t be friends.”
12:14 Comment From e
will we see promotions to double A for guys like mig sano and archie bradley soon? it seems like they could use a bit more of a challenge.
12:14 Dave Cameron: It’s been a month.
12:14 Comment From Tom
Is Putz’s closer job in jeopardy?
12:14 Dave Cameron: Probably not. Overreacting to HRs allowed by relievers is silly. His BB/K numbers are still fine.
12:15 Comment From Daniel
Any signs from the Royals in April that they can exceed their modest pre-season expectations? 85+ wins?
12:15 Dave Cameron: I don’t see it. The offense still isn’t very good. The case for the Royals as a playoff team depends on Wade Davis becoming a frontline starter and guys like Hosmer/Moustakas becoming legitimate big league power hitters. So far, it’s a whiff on all three.
12:16 Comment From Travis
Does LOB% tend to regress to a league average or do pitchers have some control over it (high K%/GB%)?
12:17 Dave Cameron: Pitchers definitely have influence on their LOB%, but the range of sustainable LOB% is about 68-78%. Anything outside of that is probably due for regression. But good pitchers strand more baserunners than bad pitchers.
12:17 Comment From Monty
If a pitcher struck out all 27 batters in a game, would he accumulate 1.0 WAR?
12:18 Dave Cameron: No, that’s not how WAR works.
12:18 Comment From Nats Fan
Do you know if the Nats are telling Strasburg to pitch to contact? I have heard conflicting accounts.
12:19 Dave Cameron: I’m sure a lot of people are telling him a lot of things. He’s trying to become more efficient. The issue is that contact pitches don’t really throw fewer pitches than strikeout pitchers.
12:19 Comment From Colin P
The Reds have a injury riddled left field/bench problem right now with Ludwick out for awhile and Heisey recently DL’d. Would you ride it out with the Xavier Paul/Derrick Robinson combo, give Donald Lutz a shot, or trade for someone?
12:19 Dave Cameron: Personally, I’d trade for a center fielder and put Choo back in a corner.
12:20 Comment From Dave
Do you think there’s any chance Chris Davis continues his HR/FB magic, his improved K% and improved BB%?
12:20 Dave Cameron: Sure. Guys do improve from time to time.
12:20 Comment From Aaron
Did the Brewers manage to win both sides of the Greinke trade? Segura looks every bit as good on defense as Escobar but can hit for some power too, and nobody else they sent to Kansas City has done anything of consequence: Cain’s a 4th OF, Jeffress is toast, and Odorizzi left with Wil Myers.
12:21 Dave Cameron: Segura is not Escobar with the glove, but he’s got more bat, so yes, I think Milwaukee came out ahead in those trades.
12:21 Comment From Jones
Most surprising success (team) this season?
12:22 Dave Cameron: Rockies or Red Sox, probably.
12:22 Comment From Andy
Thoughts on James Loney? Great hard contact, great defense at 1B. Should we stop the automatic public ridicule?
12:22 Dave Cameron: The Rays clearly have some kind of magic pixie dust.
12:22 Comment From Mike Scioscia
How safe is my job?
12:23 Dave Cameron: Well, you have a monster contract that pays you a lot of money, so I think DiPoto is probably in more trouble than you are.
12:23 Comment From Jaack
What percentage of the questions in the queue are fantasy related despite your lack of interest in answering them? I really just want to know what percent of people are good listeners.
12:23 Dave Cameron: It’s like half fantasy questions.
12:23 Comment From Dan
Are you concerned about the Nationals rotation? It actually looks really bad right now.
12:23 Dave Cameron: Gio’s a little concerning, and Haren was always a big question mark.
12:24 Comment From Kyle Seager
Am I flirting with becoming a 3-4 WAR kind of player?
12:24 Dave Cameron: Closer to 3 than 4.
12:24 Comment From Shark Mapiro
Is this Carlos Santana (or one close to it) here to stay?
12:24 Dave Cameron: Well, his current line is something like Babe Ruth’s peak, so I’m going to say no.
12:24 Comment From Zach
If it’s easier to hit with men on, protection can exist from a high OBP batter ahead of the player in question right?
12:25 Dave Cameron: Yes, there’s more evidence for “protection” being a real thing based on the hitters in front of you than behind you.
12:25 Comment From Guest
If you were managing the yankees what would be your strategy at SS? It seems like they are hoping 1 below average player can fill the gap until a huge (also now below average player)question mark is ready to return.
12:25 Dave Cameron: Jeter is not a below average player.
12:25 Comment From jeff
what team do you get the least amount of questions about?
12:26 Dave Cameron: I seem to get very few questions about the Padres.
12:26 Dave Cameron: Probably because that team is both bad and very boring.
12:27 Comment From Dan
How long does it take for UZR to begin to stabilize? Austin Jackson is at a -4 right now and I assume that can’t be right
12:27 Dave Cameron: Why would you assume that “can’t be right”? Do you think David Price’s ERA can’t be right because he’s been a good pitcher?
12:28 Dave Cameron: That doesn’t mean you should assume that Austin Jackson is now a bad fielder, or that you should project him forward as a negative defender, but the idea that good defensive players can’t have a bad defensive month is weird.
12:29 Comment From Steve
How come fWAR takes into account UZR rather than DRS or some form of weighted combination of the two? I feel like you often see WAR figures thrown way off by defense despite the admitted small sample size caveats of UZR. Wouldn’t incorporating multiple metrics help?
12:29 Dave Cameron: They’re not on the same scale. DRS has a wider range than UZR, so aggregating them would cause some issues.
12:29 Dave Cameron: And the “small sample” issue isn’t specific to UZR.
12:30 Comment From Andrew
I gather from Fangraphs Audio this week that you don’t think Manny Machado is moving off third any time soon. Why do you think this and what do you think of it?
12:30 Dave Cameron: I don’t think he’s ever moving off of 3B. He’s very good there, and teams are generally hesitant to move players to harder defensive positions.
12:31 Comment From Pips
Who is the biggest baseball genius that Fangraphs readers have never heard of ?
12:31 Dave Cameron: I met an employee of the St. Louis Cardinals at the SABR Analytics conference who had like 13 PhDs and used to run NASA, or something like that. (Slight exaggeration).
12:32 Comment From zack
Is Matt Carpenter sort of a poor man’s Ben Zobrist? A guy who can hit, talk a walk and play multiple positions.
12:32 Dave Cameron: Homeless man’s Zobrist, yes. He can’t play short and isn’t a good defender, so he’s more of a bat-first utility guy.
12:33 Comment From Timmy
should the Giants worry about Cain and Vogelsong?
12:33 Dave Cameron: Cain no, Vogelsong kind of.
12:33 Comment From Guest
I have a feeling you are PRO the idea of doing away with baseball postseason and making it more like EuroSoccer
12:33 Dave Cameron: No way. The baseball postseason is awesome.
12:33 Comment From John
If the Tigers and Astros played 162 games against each other, how many games would the Astros win?
12:33 Dave Cameron: 40 to 45.
12:34 Comment From killbill
Who’s gonna be the next commissioner after bud? Who SHOULD it be?
12:34 Dave Cameron: Sandy Alderson. Sandy Alderson.
12:34 Comment From killbill
did they ever say how bundys meeting with Dr. Andrews went?
12:35 Dave Cameron: He got a PRP injection and won’t throw for six weeks. It seems like these kinds of plans always end in surgery eventually.
12:35 Comment From Ron Kittles glasses
Is Buehrle a victim of SSS so far, or is he just a victim of being Mark Buehrle?
12:35 Dave Cameron: Mark Buehrle is good, so the second clause doesn’t make much sense.
12:36 Comment From Neil
Really pleased that you and BR unified replacement level. Any chance you guys could work on getting Brett Lawrie and Jed Lowrie to unify pronunciation? It would help a lot.
12:36 Dave Cameron: First priority: Everyone who pronounces their name shawn has to agree on a common spelling.
12:36 Comment From zack
If the Royals win 85 games was the Myers trade a smart move for Dayton Moore from a job security standpoint?
12:37 Dave Cameron: Maybe, but if that was his motivation, he deserves to be fired.
12:37 Comment From Vitaly (Ukraine)
What do you think about Red Sox playoff chances after such big April? SSS or not, they have best record in majors.
12:37 Dave Cameron: Yeah, they are probably a likely playoff team now, because of their strong start. April leads matter.
12:38 Comment From Ron Kittles glasses
Do you agree with Keith Law’s theory of batting your best hitter in the two hole?
12:39 Dave Cameron: Well, it’s not Keith Law’s theory, since it’s been around for a while, but yes, the math says that’s the optimal place for him. The problem is that the math also says it doesn’t really matter all that much, so if moving your best hitter to the #2 spot causes problems with the players, it’s probably not worth it.
12:39 Comment From Franks N Beans
What is the highest single game WAR total one could reasonably expect to see a position player accumulate? (Assume a 9-inning game.)
12:39 Dave Cameron: Probably 0.7 or 0.8 or so.
12:40 Comment From Draft Fan
Do you think the Marlins or Astros will wind up as the worst team of 2013?
12:40 Dave Cameron: Depends on Stanton’s health. Without him, the Marlins are the worst team I’ve ever seen.
12:40 Comment From Ron Kittles glasses
Does a Nava/Carp platoon in left for the rest of the season make sense?
12:40 Dave Cameron: No, because they’re both LHBs.
12:41 Comment From Gila Monster
Settle an arguement for me : Who is a better pitcher, Chris Sale or Jeff Samardijza? I thought Shark because he has held on to his fastball velocity, throws a nice splitter, and generates more SwgStk. But Sale does pitch in the AL and an ultra hitter friendly park…
12:41 Dave Cameron: Sale also has better command.
12:41 Dave Cameron: He’s better, both are good.
12:41 Comment From Landon
Obviously it’s early, but do you think hitting directly in front of Pujols has made Trout less aggressive on the bases? Seems like he stays put on a lot of good running situations.
12:41 Dave Cameron: It’s not just Trout – no one is running this year.
12:41 Comment From Guest
Eno Sarris is becoming a freaking superstar with his access to players for interview purposes to supplement ideas he has. Votto, Trumbo pieces, etc etc. He is taking things to a new direction and doing a good job of it!
12:42 Dave Cameron: Yeah, Eno’s doing a great job putting his BBWAA access to use. I think this is kind of the future of baseball journalism.
12:42 Comment From Ron Kittles glasses
Does Farrell also posess this magical pixie dust or was it just a coincidence the pitching was horrid under Bobby V?
12:43 Dave Cameron: I like that everyone who keeps crediting John Farrell for being a wizard with pitchers forgets that he was Ricky Romero’s manager last year.
12:44 Comment From Clayton Richard
In addition to my stats, even my name is boring.
12:44 Dave Cameron: It’s also backwards.
12:44 Comment From JR
When do the leaderboards typically get updated? I noticed it was later the other night following the late A’s-Angels game. They’re very much appreciated with their custom reporting and export features.
12:44 Dave Cameron: Usually happens at 3-4 am, I believe, but yeah, can’t update them when a game is still going on…
12:45 Comment From Thomas
WRT Austin Jackson and UZR, isn’t their measurement error as well?
12:46 Dave Cameron: Sure, there’s a chance that UZR is just wrong. But there’s a chance that it isn’t wrong too. The idea that every UZR that doesn’t align with our preconceived idea of a defensive player’s talent being measurement error is silly.
12:47 Comment From Richie
I think the idea is that David Price can hang a few more balls this month than last, but how does a fielder ‘slump’? Just harder to intuitively see.
12:48 Dave Cameron: Think of it this way – most of a player’s defensive value is tied up to how many balls they catch that are essentially coin flips. Everyone makes most of the 99% out plays, but it’s the 50/50 balls that really matter in UZR. Is it really so weird to think that Austin Jackson might have failed to catch four or five balls that he had a 50% chance of catching?
12:49 Comment From Robert
If you could pick one player for the next 10 years who would you pick? Mike Trout or Bryce Harper
12:49 Dave Cameron: I would take Harper over anyone.
12:49 Comment From Richie
Isn’t it extremely likely that the Nats’ “quant” people know that contact guys do throw as many pitches as strikeout guys? If so, is it then a matter of manager/coaches saying ‘screw you, I know what I see’?
12:50 Dave Cameron: Yes, the Nationals have smart analytics guys working for them. Yes, those guys probably don’t get to tell Stephen Strasburg how to pitch.
12:50 Comment From SMC
Matt Carpenter and Allen Craig: both moved to harder defensive positions
12:50 Dave Cameron: Allan Craig is playing first base.
12:51 Comment From Andrew
Following up on Machado, would you personally rather leave a very good third baseman where he is, or give him a shot at being an averageish shortstop, assuming you didn’t have a better defensive SS in house?
12:52 Dave Cameron: Depends on the situation. Adrian Beltre, for instance, could have probably been a decent defensive SS if asked, but he’s amazing at third base because of how good he is charging the ball, which isn’t as crucial at short. There’s some guys who belong at third, and some guys who are probably more valuable up the middle.
12:52 Comment From Colin
I always hear batting order doesn’t matter, but then I see Law writing an article arguing teams should bat their best hitters second? So it does matter?
12:52 Dave Cameron: It doesn’t matter very much.
12:52 Comment From Biased Guy
micheal fishman >>>> that cardinals guy
12:53 Dave Cameron: Maybe, but people have heard of Michael Fishman. There’s even a blog named after him.
12:53 Comment From Steve 2
There is more than one way to pronounce Shawn?
12:53 Dave Cameron: No, but there’s about 100 ways to spell it.
12:54 Comment From tylersnotes
what is the strategic advantage to backloading a longterm contract extension? Why pay a guy like votto $12 mil in 2014 and $25 mil in 2018-2024? Is the cost saved now to go all in, and is that truly worth giving up the future buying opportunity?
12:54 Dave Cameron: Time value of money.
12:54 Comment From Andrew
You mentioned to Carson on FGA that most baseball front offices are pretty small. Why is that? Would there an advantage to be gained by a team who decided to throw a bunch of money (although a relative pittance compared to player salaries) at a drastically larger front office filled with smart people?
12:55 Dave Cameron: The Yankees have done that. They have a giant staff, relative to everyone else in baseball anyway.
12:56 Comment From chuckb
How long can Shelby Miller go throwing almost nothing but fastballs and curveballs? When hitters start seeing him for the 2nd or 3rd time, he’s going to have to throw his changeup some, won’t he?
12:56 Dave Cameron: Maybe, maybe not. Two pitches can work as long as they’re both effective against both RHBs and LHBs.
12:56 Comment From TMO
You comment frequently that front offices don’t pay high salaries. Do the fangraphs writers make more? Can you give a ballpark, for the misguided many who might be considering leaving their day job to write about baseball?
12:56 Dave Cameron: Most people I know in baseball are earning something like 25-50% of what their salary would be if they had pursued another career.
12:57 Comment From Jaack
Who would be the worst person in Baseball to be selected as Selig’s successor?
12:57 Dave Cameron: Delmon Young?
12:57 Comment From Joe
Living on the east coast, do you stay up for all the 10 PM Mariners games?
12:58 Dave Cameron: I work late anyway.
12:59 Comment From jesse
any chance we will see a :”Franchise player draft” this year?
12:59 Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think we’ll make that an annual summer thing.
12:59 Comment From CardsFan
Wasn’t Allen Craig a shortstop in college? Also who was the Cardinals employee you were referring to earlier?
1:00 Dave Cameron: Chris Correa.
1:00 Comment From BassmanUW
But isn’t Votto also the sort of “smart” player who might be able to get on board with batting second? I’d just be interested to see if a less “old school” (for lack of a better term) manager than Dusty could get Votto to agree to the move without any hassle.
1:00 Dave Cameron: Yeah, Votto would be fine with hitting 2nd if asked, I think.
1:00 Comment From Robo Redneck
Where does one find the rolling year splits data?
1:01 Dave Cameron: On the leaderboards, click the split drop down box, and then pick “past calendar year”.
1:02 Comment From Richie
So the SSS problem of UZR is that it can’t really distinguish 45/55 from 55/45 from 50/50 balls, so it mistakenly dings poor Austin when he has a month of the 45/55 ones (or poor David when a few stupid balls carry 312 feet rather than 308 feet). Which problem gradually washes out as ‘S’ turns into ‘L’.
1:03 Dave Cameron: It’s probably more like discerning 50/50 from 70/30, so yeah, if a player is judged to have had a bunch of plays he should have made more often than not but they weren’t actually that easy, than UZR would be inaccurately dinging him. But in larger samples, the odds of those errors remaining in the data get a lot smaller.
1:03 Comment From Archer
I’m curious about how 1B defense is valued. Shouldn’t how well a 1B is at receiving be valued more than his range? Over the course of a game, a 1B will receive a throw more times than he’ll catch a batted ball, no?
1:04 Dave Cameron: You don’t care about quantity of events – you care about the spread in talent of events at a position. So, yes, a first baseman will have to catch more balls thrown at him, but that’s a prerequisite for geting to the big leagues, and nearly every 1st baseman is virtually the same at how often they catch throws.
1:04 Comment From jesse
I just looked at the 2011 ESPN franchise player draft: Pineda went 27th, Feliz(23), Josh Johnson(6), Lincecum(5); any chance people will have learned about the risk of pitchers??
1:05 Dave Cameron: You’d hope so, but no.
1:05 Dave Cameron: Okay, I’ve got to go eat lunch and then start writing since Sullivan is on vacation and you all want afternoon content…





 

Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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Timbo
10 years ago

Why do the Red Sx play Saltalamachia over Lavarnway and Ross?

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