Good question! Would love for someone to see if a team like the Rays has a lower BABIP when using a defensive shift.
st
14 years ago
this replay doesnt seem to work?
johnorpheus
14 years ago
Gotta love Cameron uses anything and everything to drive his AL superiority narrative, including Pujols struggles. Why don’t we stick to thinks we can quantify instead of pure speculation?
Will
14 years ago
Regarding the Harper +3 WAR question, I don’t think it’s that outlandish.
The original question was whether Harper would be worth 3 WAR to the Nationals over DeRosa/Nady, not whether Harper would be worth 3 WAR. ZIPS thinks that he would be.
Nady (ROS) in 90 games = -1.3 WAR
Mark DeRosa (ROS) in 56 game = -0.5 WAR
DeRosa/Nady over 146 games (just a little more than the remaining 138 games) = -1.8 WAR
Harper is projected to be worth 1.7 WAR over 108 games. Increase that by 27% to reflect the 138 remaining games (basically, a full season from here on out), and Harper is worth 2.2 WAR.
So in total, to the Nationals, Harper represents a 4.0 WAR increase in LF, not merely 3 WAR, mostly because the Nats replacements are pretty terrible. But going from Xavier Nady to Bryce Harper (for all his faults and youth) is still a HUGE improvement.
1 word for what was wrong with Matt Kemp in 2010: Rihanna!
Question. (And I don’t know where to put it.)
How do the defensive shifts affect BABIP?
Good question! Would love for someone to see if a team like the Rays has a lower BABIP when using a defensive shift.
this replay doesnt seem to work?
Gotta love Cameron uses anything and everything to drive his AL superiority narrative, including Pujols struggles. Why don’t we stick to thinks we can quantify instead of pure speculation?
Regarding the Harper +3 WAR question, I don’t think it’s that outlandish.
The original question was whether Harper would be worth 3 WAR to the Nationals over DeRosa/Nady, not whether Harper would be worth 3 WAR. ZIPS thinks that he would be.
Nady (ROS) in 90 games = -1.3 WAR
Mark DeRosa (ROS) in 56 game = -0.5 WAR
DeRosa/Nady over 146 games (just a little more than the remaining 138 games) = -1.8 WAR
Harper is projected to be worth 1.7 WAR over 108 games. Increase that by 27% to reflect the 138 remaining games (basically, a full season from here on out), and Harper is worth 2.2 WAR.
So in total, to the Nationals, Harper represents a 4.0 WAR increase in LF, not merely 3 WAR, mostly because the Nats replacements are pretty terrible. But going from Xavier Nady to Bryce Harper (for all his faults and youth) is still a HUGE improvement.