FanGraphs Dodgers/Giants NLDS Game 1 Chat
| 9:30 |
: Hi everyone. Let’s get weird.
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| 9:31 |
: Thanks so much for joining us tonight. We love doing these, and they’ve been a big hit this week. |
| 9:31 |
: Now that Young Sheldon is over, the real fun can begin!
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| 9:31 |
: Welcome, everyone!
|
| 9:32 |
: I’m here with Luke Hooper and we will be watching Dodgers/Giants and the rest of this wacky game in Tampa. We will provide insight, hopefully some laughs, weird polls, and of course, you can ask us . . . well anything!
|
| 9:32 |
: I’m all jacked up on expresso and am ready to start. |
| 9:32 |
: Logan Webb has the 2nd-highest GB% among starters. His sinker is 3rd and his changeup is 2nd.
|
| 9:33 |
: I need coffee, but I poured a cocktail instead. It’s night, we’re staying up late, live a little.
|
| 9:33 |
: The Dodgers have the second-highest FB% vs all pitches from RHP and the 6th-highest vs sinkers+changeups.
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| 9:33 |
: The first five times Buehler faced the Giants this year, he allowed a total of 3 ER in 37 IP. In the last one, he allowed 6 ER in 3 IP.
|
| 9:33 |
: I am EXCITED to see what happens. |
| 9:33 |
:
Was that fan interference in Tampa?
Yes (18.0% | 9 votes)
No (40.0% | 20 votes)
I’m not watching THAT game! (42.0% | 21 votes)
Total Votes: 50
|
| 9:34 |
: aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa
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| 9:34 |
: Is that excitement or nervousness?
|
| 9:34 |
: If for some reason you aren’t hyped, watch the hype videos!
Giants: A historic rivalry reaches new heights. #BeatLA
Dodgers: https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/1446507127913136134 |
| 9:34 |
: Would the Dodgers prefer to face the Giants in a best of 5 or best of 7 series?
|
| 9:36 |
: I have to imagine the Dodgers would prefer a 7 game series. They think they are the better team. More games favors the better team. Giants would probably say the same.
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| 9:34 |
: I think any team would want as long as possible of a series in order to avoid the randomness of baseball as much as possible.
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| 9:35 |
: Does no Muncy alter your opinions of how the series is going to play out? |
| 9:35 |
: I mean, it’s obviously a negative, but in a five-game series, it’s really anyone’s.
|
| 9:35 |
: Is that Muppet Halloween special any gud?
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| 9:35 |
: I’ll have to let you know later…I offered it to the kiddos tonight and it got rejected.
|
| 9:35 |
: Found cookies in the pantry. This is going to be good.
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| 9:35 |
: Good start.
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| 9:36 |
: Since I hate playoff predictions, how about simply how many games will the SFG/LAD series go?
3 (1.6% | 1 vote)
4 (20.3% | 12 votes)
5 (47.4% | 28 votes)
Somehow, and in defiance of all logic, 6 (30.5% | 18 votes)
Total Votes: 59
|
| 9:37 |
: Does Buelher’s shaky start against the Giants last time out matter here at all? Is it predictive, or just an aberration?
|
| 9:37 |
: I’ll take the five good starts this season over the one bad one.
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| 9:37 |
: I love baseball
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| 9:37 |
: We do too, and we’re so happy you are here to share your love with us.
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| 9:38 |
: Ron Darling in the booth? Fantastic.
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| 9:38 |
: What kind of cocktail are you drinking? |
| 9:38 |
: Bourbon and Cheerwine
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| 9:38 |
: In all seriousness, it is great that so many people join the chats. It’s a lot of fun to watch a game with a bunch of other people that love baseball so much that they want to also be typing about it while watching.
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| 9:38 |
: Yea this is probably my favorite postseason booth. Other than the nerd cast
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| 9:39 |
: Love the chats! Is there a schedule for the playoff FG chats?
|
| 9:39 |
: Not set in stone, but we’re shooting for every weeknight (no promises).
|
| 9:39 |
: how tight do buehlers pants look. I’m just listening on the radio |
| 9:39 |
: Haven’t seen them yet but I’ll keep my eyes out.
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| 9:39 |
: Do scouting reports for playoff series include extra information?
|
| 9:39 |
: They do. Usually some pro folks or extra analysts get pushed to advance work for the post-season.
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| 9:39 |
: Whether that’s extra USEFUL information is debatable at times.
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| 9:40 |
: Coming to you live from my vacation in Hawaii. Hope this is fun!
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| 9:40 |
: Look, again, we LOVE chatting with you, but on your vacation in Hawaii? |
| 9:41 |
: I love how well Webb’s stuff works together.
|
| 9:41 |
: Webb has been such a joy to watch this year.
|
| 9:41 |
:
Would you have started Webb or Guasman in game one?
Gausman (31.4% | 17 votes)
Webb (55.5% | 30 votes)
Jesse Foppert (12.9% | 7 votes)
Total Votes: 54
|
| 9:42 |
: Seager with the productive out lol
|
| 9:42 |
: Somebody watched White Sox/Astros the afternoon. Somehow, it was only the 73rd most offensive thing said….
|
| 9:42 |
: Elite vertical movement with three pitches and his 2021 sinker is just such a handful to do anything with. |
| 9:43 |
: Yeah, there’s a weird audio mismatch on the field in the game, it’s real weird.
|
| 9:43 |
: And a beaut!
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| 9:43 |
: Wow! Thought that was for sure a run when it hit his foot.
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| 9:43 |
: Congrats to Jesse Plemons for getting the start for the Giants
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| 9:43 |
: There is nothing better than watching playoff baseball from the pool tiki bar in Hawaii (night games only)
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| 9:44 |
: Pre-season projections loved Logan Webb, but that didn’t look great through May. Now he’s starting game 1 for team with the best record in baseball, ahead of Gausman. Baseball is fun.
|
| 9:44 |
: It really is.
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| 9:44 |
: It’s the best team sport. It’s really the only team sport I even follow.
|
| 9:45 |
: Would be interesting to know if that would’ve got through the middle. Seems like it’s time to show where the infielders are positioned on each pitch
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| 9:45 |
: Didn’t TBS show player position in the past?
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| 9:45 |
: What does the Giants rotation look like next year?
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| 9:45 |
: The think they bring Gausman back, and he’s indicated he wants to stay. After him and Webb, it’s going to take some work.
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| 9:46 |
: Follow up on previous question: Walker’s pants are 70-grade tight.
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| 9:47 |
: “How dare you?” – Johnny Cueto
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| 9:47 |
: I’m happy to see Boston winning and hope it stays that way, in that I just would like a really good series.
|
| 9:48 |
: How much do losing Muncy & Belt change series win expectancy? Do they cancel each other out? Are personnel shifts like that marginal anyway?
|
| 9:48 |
: It’s hard to move the needle a TON in a five game series. I think the Giants lose less because they have better backup options, and Muncy is a better player than Belt, so it’s an even bigger dropoff.
|
| 9:48 |
: Wander Franco can play ball
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| 9:48 |
: One of them can.
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| 9:49 |
: There are three of ’em.
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| 9:49 |
: Even the announcer got way too excited on the mildly deep F9 by Crawford.
|
| 9:50 |
: More than 3. His son is also Wander
|
| 9:50 |
: There you go. I got to know the big-ish 3B in the Astros system during my time there. Big pop, just couldn’t hit enough.
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| 9:50 |
: Robbie Ray’s pants are 80-grade then, right?
|
| 9:51 |
: Regardless of scale, Ray is the top mark. It’s a constant of the universe.
|
| 9:51 |
: This wind graphic is fascinating
|
| 9:51 |
: Who had “Boston 9+ Runs” on their bingo board tonight?
|
| 9:51 |
: They finished 4th in the AL in runs this year, you can’t be shocked. I know Baz is great, but that’s a crazy tough assignment for your third career big league start.
|
| 9:51 |
: BUSTER POSEY
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| 9:52 |
: old man strength!
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| 9:52 |
: That’s why you green light good hitters 3-0
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| 9:52 |
: Oppo shots are not a common siting there
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| 9:52 |
: No righty has ever hit one in the water. And that one looked darn close.
|
| 9:53 |
: Really?
|
| 9:53 |
: That’s crazy
|
| 9:53 |
: 99% certain haha
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| 9:54 |
: I’m kind of fascinated as to how Alex Cora is managing. I think he’s really good at it.
|
| 9:54 |
: I wonder if he’ll try to get six outs from Whitlock….
|
| 9:54 |
: Can confirm, 0 righty splash hits
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| 9:55 |
: does that one count as a splash hit? On one bounce, and might have gotten there if it didn’t hit that high stack
|
| 9:55 |
: It’s only an official splash on the fly
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| 9:55 |
: Which team had the most IL days of any team this year? Is there a better metric for measuring injury impact? Wife thinks her White Sox had the toughest year injury-wise which has the feel of a “my state has the worst drivers” kind of statement. She’s wrong, right?
|
| 9:55 |
: @drhoa3 can probably tell you
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| 9:55 |
: Giants have been swinging at 3-0 pitches all year.
|
| 9:55 |
: Good
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| 9:56 |
: I’ve spent much of my life being annoyed at pitchers throwing 3-0 meatballs.
|
| 9:56 |
: First playoff HR in 9 years for Posey.
|
| 9:56 |
: Hell of an inning from Brasier.
|
| 9:56 |
: He’s looked very good for a month or so now.
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| 9:56 |
: This say Padres most IL time. Dodgers at 4, Giants at 6
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| 9:57 |
: The White Sox more had BIG injuries to Eloy and Robert and Yasmani for a bit.
|
| 9:57 |
: but they’re all good to go now and it’s not helping.
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| 9:58 |
: He was not jiggy with that.
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| 9:59 |
: Webb’s stuff looks like its really moving well to start.
|
| 10:00 |
: Good baseball today. Astros/White Sox was good until the 7th, Braves/Brewers good thru 9, TB/BOS still good all the way….
|
| 10:00 |
: man…
|
| 10:00 |
: Kevin, you really think Muncy is better than Belt? Like clear-cut? I’m a Giants fan but they seem fairly equivalent if I’m trying to be objective.
|
| 10:00 |
: I think Muncy is a more dangerous AB, but it’s not some kind of slam dunk.
|
| 10:01 |
: Is there an argument against technology assisting or replacing the umpires with the strike zone that isn’t a variation of “I like games to be affected by umpires’ mistakes?”
|
| 10:01 |
: The technology just isn’t ready for prime time.
|
| 10:02 |
: Ok, Boston/Rays game good thru the 8th, Devers bomb puts them up 11-6
|
| 10:03 |
: My best friend is a Giants fan. I love the Dodgers. After that bomb he thinks I should name my kid Gerald Posey, with my last name .Thoughts ?
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| 10:03 |
: I don’t think you should name your kid after a baseball player.
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| 10:04 |
: Unless it’s Lip Pike or Fergy Malone.
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| 10:03 |
: Posey had a .649 career playoff OPS before tonight. How much lower would that have to be for them not to trot out the “Posey has a history of clutch playoff performance” meme
|
| 10:03 |
: When you hit a grand slam in a winner-take-all game you get the clutch label forever, and I’m fine with that.
|
| 10:05 |
: But yes, he’s spent most of his career being completely worn down by the time the playoffs come around. Kapler has really gone easy on him this year though.
|
| 10:04 |
: This might be my favorite baseball day every year. 4 playoff games, running throughout the day
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| 10:04 |
: It’s a good one.
|
| 10:04 |
: That was an exceptionally tough play for Seager, but he’s still a fringy defender, and if you watched the Astros game and the defense they played, it’s pretty easy to see why I think Correa will surpass him in terms of $$$ with room to spare.
|
| 10:06 |
: There was A LOT of talk in yesterday’s chat about the upcoming free agent short stops.
|
| 10:05 |
: True or false; the Giants expanded on-field coaching staff will be one of the most copied trends in baseball next spring?
|
| 10:05 |
: If you said over the next three years, I’d say absolutely. Baseball changes at a glacial pace.
|
| 10:06 |
: It amuses me whenever I hear that Kapler “did” this or that…
|
| 10:06 |
: He’s actually done a phenomenal job.
|
| 10:06 |
: RE: current state of Wander Francos
|
| 10:06 |
: There are five
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| 10:06 |
: So many managers in baseball, so many really good managers in baseball were bad in their first job.
|
| 10:07 |
: Would be big for the Giants if 2020 Yaz joined the team for the 2021 playoffs…is my keen insight.
|
| 10:07 |
: yeah, that guy could hit LHP
|
| 10:07 |
: I’m glad it looks like I’m talking to myself.
|
| 10:08 |
: Why should tonight be any different?
|
| 10:08 |
: Excellent point!
|
| 10:08 |
: Does this count as Cora’s second manager job?
|
| 10:08 |
: fun question. Gonna say no.
|
| 10:08 |
: Excuse me, they are Wanders Franco…
|
| 10:08 |
: Five.
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| 10:09 |
: I don’t get Kapler’s vibe though, despite his successes. Total hardo intensity in Philly, now going for this exmarine professorial vibe in San Fran? Pick a lane gabe
|
| 10:09 |
: He learned, he adjusted. Don’t get mad at somebody for changing for the better….
|
| 10:09 |
: PRETTY DOUBLE PLAYS ARE COOL.
|
| 10:09 |
: How is Longoria only a 3 time all star?
|
| 10:09 |
: Seems light.
|
| 10:10 |
: What’s the Giants biggest weakness?
|
| 10:10 |
: I can’t answer this with out Nicklaus and Luke rolling their eyes and calling me names.
|
| 10:10 |
: I plomise not too
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| 10:10 |
: You can’t see my eyes, so answer away!
|
| 10:10 |
: I just don’t know who their aircraft carrier is. Maybe after that HR, it’s Posey.
|
| 10:13 |
: Yup. They don’t have the top-end talent of the Dodgers.
|
| 10:11 |
: no eye roll from me
|
| 10:11 |
: Love all the chats this week!
|
| 10:11 |
: Us too!
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| 10:12 |
: Yeah, thanks again for joining us. All sorts of playoff coverage, previews, game stories, podcasts (listen to Chin Music you fools!) at FanGraphs, and now I will also ask you to support FanGraphs so we can keep on doing it.
|
| 10:13 |
: Could Scott Harris be an under the radar candidate for the Mets president of Basebal Ops job? It doesn’t seem like the Giants could block him with Farhan at the top spot and seems like from afar he’s had success everywhere he’s been
|
| 10:13 |
: I think it’s an excellent name actually. He’s very well respected in the industry, and I’ve always like my interactions with him.
|
| 10:14 |
: He does seem like the easiest candidate to poach. That’s a hard position to keep around.
|
| 10:13 |
: Kevin, you’ve mentioned a few times what a coin flip the playoffs are. Do you evaluate the best team by regular season standings or some other way?
|
| 10:13 |
: I think that’s a good start, but you have to do some mental calculus to account for injuries and the unbalanced schedule….
|
| 10:14 |
: To steal from Marc Carig: Logan Webb has THE GOOD STUFF
|
| 10:15 |
: nasty
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| 10:16 |
: My Dodgers are gonna get caught in the Webb, aren’t they…
|
| 10:16 |
: Stuff is really working tonight.
|
| 10:17 |
:
How many runs will it take to win this game?
2 (15.0% | 8 votes)
3 (11.3% | 6 votes)
4 (50.9% | 27 votes)
5 (18.8% | 10 votes)
6+ (3.7% | 2 votes)
Total Votes: 53
|
| 10:18 |
: Whitlock for the 9th, or no need with a 5-run lead?
|
| 10:18 |
: Oh what a tangled Webb we weave
|
| 10:18 |
: Might let Robles finish it (16 pitches), but there is the off day . . .
|
| 10:18 |
: Can draw up much of a better start for Webb.
|
| 10:19 |
: Did you mean to add a “‘t” there?
|
| 10:19 |
: Whoops!
|
| 10:19 |
: Seager a dodger next year? If so who is at 2b.
|
| 10:19 |
: Well, he did give up a hit
|
| 10:19 |
: I think he’s gone, Turner is SS and someone else is 2B (Semien?)
|
| 10:20 |
: We demand perfection from technology, but are ok with constant human error. True with both self-driving vehicles and umpiring.
|
| 10:20 |
: I mean, bad umpiring doesn’t destroy property or injure people . . . are you a google plant?
|
| 10:20 |
: Shouldn’t Turner be playing SS over Seager?
|
| 10:20 |
: I wouldn’t go that far, or anywhere near it.
|
| 10:21 |
: Listen, as a Giants I can tell you that the Dodgers stars are so good they have the potential to blast even the best stuff sometimes
|
| 10:21 |
: Yes they can but they’ll have to really earn it. Webb has only allowed nine home runs and has the third-lowest HR/9 among starters.
|
| 10:21 |
: But the Dodgers certainly have the bats to do it.
|
| 10:22 |
: Webb was a fourth-round pick in 2014 out of Rocklin HS in California. I don’t remember him in the draft at all, but Houston wasn’t spending much time on non first-round HS pitchers….
|
| 10:23 |
: Boy you gotta like how web is getting a tin of balls cakled strikes, looks like a set up
|
| 10:23 |
: Stop it. Just stop it.
|
| 10:24 |
: “I call him the rookie from Rocklin, but this is his fourth year in the bigs, but he’s a rookie for the playoffs.” Broadcast quality continues to disappoint……
|
| 10:24 |
: That’s why I said 70!
|
| 10:24 |
:
Do you like watching with the K-zone on?
Yes (53.6% | 37 votes)
No (46.3% | 32 votes)
Total Votes: 69
|
| 10:25 |
: So the umpires are in on the Giants scheme too? Q, that you?
|
| 10:25 |
: There’s a basement at a pizza place in Washington DC where the deep state and the umpires union gather to . . . .
|
| 10:27 |
: Unpopular thought (one in a series): MLB umpires are really good. They screw up, sometimes a lot, but they’re really good. Go to some minor league games or college games and you’ll appreciate how good they are more.
|
| 10:28 |
: Or go to one of the little league games I used to ump. It ain’t easy.
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| 10:28 |
: Watching lower-level umps really does make you appreciate the MLB ones.
|
| 10:28 |
: Not familiar with the specifics of his ban, but what would it take for Steve Cohen to consider Jeff Luhnow?
|
| 10:28 |
: Maybe shouldn’t step into this, but I do know the answer . . .
|
| 10:29 |
: He has served his suspension, so he could be hired. After what the Mets have been through, I can’t see Cohen wanting any part of the PR aspect of that hire.
|
| 10:30 |
: Played D3 baseball, can confirm.
|
| 10:30 |
: I covered Division III baseball for a year as a photographer–totally agree with you about umpiring. Those guys (mostly very young) were trying hard and were ambitious to succeed, not lazy or indifferent. It’s just difficult.
|
| 10:31 |
: Big mistake there, free leadoff runner.
|
| 10:32 |
: Could that Flores hit be the softest exit velocity with the highest launch angle in the stat cast era? (Took me forever to type this, so kinda missed the moment.)
|
| 10:32 |
: He has a lot of company. For example, Juan Lagares, who blistered a 29.1 mph (81-degree LA) laser in June.
|
| 10:32 |
: Have the Giants actually figured out something new with the aging curve and how to get more production out if declining hitters? If so any speculation on what it is?
|
| 10:32 |
: I’m not sure it’s that. I do think they’re onto something int terms of maximizing performances for reasons beyond age.
|
| 10:34 |
: I thought Flores couldn’t hit rhp. Why are Giants playing him against Buehler? Or did he figure righties out this year?
|
| 10:34 |
: His splits were actually remarkably similar this season, with only a slight advantage vs LHP. But he also hasn’t been as good vs LHP than in the past.
|
| 10:34 |
: How much extra consideration would a FA give to the Giants due to their success with player production this year?
|
| 10:34 |
: I think it might help with veteran minor league FA more than big money players.
|
| 10:35 |
: Can I just say here that I love good defense?
|
| 10:36 |
: If you’re in the front office for some other team, how much time do you spend on specifically figuring out what the Giants are doing?
|
| 10:36 |
: WOW!
|
| 10:36 |
: I do know someone with another team who tries to reverse engineer the reason for their lineup on a daily basis…..
|
| 10:36 |
: Nice getting a plug for a betting site instead of a replay
|
| 10:36 |
: But you only have to bet $1!
|
| 10:37 |
: Double plays are fun
|
| 10:37 |
: that was spectacular
|
| 10:37 |
: Holy &!@*
|
| 10:37 |
: !!wow!!
|
| 10:37 |
: All of the above
|
| 10:37 |
: If you think it’s the best person for the job, what does PR matter? When you win ppl seem to find a way to suddenly forgive and/or forget don’t they? I suppose it’s the possibility of not winning?
|
| 10:37 |
: I think there’s a scale there, and if it was any team other than the Mets, I might say I highly doubt it as opposed to no way. Mets have had enough bad PR (and deservedly so for the most part) in the last 12 months to last a decade….
|
| 10:38 |
: That outside strike (to RHB) has been there for Webb, so now the Dodgers are fishing out there.
|
| 10:38 |
: If you’re getting calls there, keep testing it. Interested to see if there’s an adjustment.
|
| 10:39 |
: Flores is in the lineup because of his ability to make contact with high velocity fastballs at the top of the zone. Big hole for Ruf, the other option
|
| 10:40 |
: Good stuff!
|
| 10:39 |
: Are you that person with another team I was talking about?
|
| 10:39 |
: I’m still watching the other game, though it’s getting a bit silly. Are you surprised Cash let Wacha eat it this long? Just finally took him out.
|
| 10:39 |
: I think he was hoping not to use another arm….
|
| 10:40 |
: I am extremely NOT an analyst
|
| 10:41 |
: Has there been a statement on why TBS isn’t using k zone?
|
| 10:41 |
: They have it tonight but didn’t in the NL Wild card. No explanation.
|
| 10:41 |
: is there enough consistency game to game in an umpires strike zone that teams scout/study them?
|
| 10:41 |
: Absolutely. Every advance package has umpire reports and they can play a role in game planning.
|
| 10:42 |
: Bottom of the zone is closed. Outside corner is definitely open. That’s my report.
|
| 10:43 |
: Bryant is the only person in the Giant lineup I saw as an amateur for work purposes. Dodgers have four.
|
| 10:44 |
: Which four?
|
| 10:44 |
: T. Turner, Pollock, Smith, Beuhler
|
| 10:45 |
: I saw Bryant at the WAC tourney in Stockton, CA. The only hotel was a La Quinta, but it was across the street from an In-And-Out, so you take the good with the bad.
|
| 10:45 |
: Do more people show up for these game chats, or scheduled “standard” chats?
|
| 10:45 |
: About the same. Lighter crowd tonight. I blame the time and Friday night, but we’re still bringing the energy.
|
| 10:46 |
: What did people think of Smith back in the day
|
| 10:46 |
: He went around where people thought he would (32nd overall).
|
| 10:46 |
: Who did you like most
|
| 10:46 |
: Look, I said tons of very wrong stuff, but I said the Astros should take Bryant and Mark Appel that year . . . .
|
| 10:47 |
: Admittedly, I’m finishing A Star is Born (Bradley Cooper/ Lady Gaga) then tuning in for the rest of the game. I really enjoy these chats though. What are your views on Ron Washington becoming a manager again? All of you, but Kevin particularly? He’s made his mistakes, as I’m sure all of us have (some of his clearly publicly), but he seems like a great baseball guy who has moved past those things.
|
| 10:48 |
: He’s seems ready for another shot, if he wants it. He seems like he likes his current gig a lot too.
|
| 10:47 |
: He’s a great baseball guy, and I think he’d actually be a very good candidate in San Diego.
|
| 10:47 |
: Bryant OVER Appel that year?
|
| 10:47 |
: Yeah, that.
|
| 10:48 |
: Which was more impressive: Giants 2010-2014 or Dodgers 2012-2020?
|
| 10:48 |
: Hard to argue with the titles
|
| 10:48 |
: helluva unexpected changeup there from Walker.
|
| 10:48 |
: waaaay out in front.
|
| 10:48 |
: Would the Astros be better off or worse off if they had listened to everything you advised?
|
| 10:49 |
: I mean, they’d still have Josh Hader……
|
| 10:49 |
: Yaz would agree with the ‘unexpected’ part
|
| 10:49 |
: Amazing pitch
|
| 10:50 |
: wow a changeup is a nervy pitch after flying open on a few fastballs this frame
|
| 10:50 |
: Over/under for the next year when the Dodgers will have a losing season?
|
| 10:50 |
: The Yankees haven’t had one since 1992, so it could be a very long time and I have no reason to think it’s coming, either sooner or later….
|
| 10:51 |
: Shouldn’t happen anytime soon.
|
| 10:51 |
:
Will smith led off the 5th with a single, will the Dodgers score in this inning?
Yup (41.6% | 20 votes)
Nope (58.3% | 28 votes)
Total Votes: 48
|
| 10:53 |
:
The Dodgers now have a man on first with ONE OUT, will they score this inning?
Yup (15.5% | 7 votes)
Nope (84.4% | 38 votes)
Total Votes: 45
|
| 10:53 |
: Man, out out changes a lot!
|
| 10:53 |
: Give up a hit, get a groundball. Excellent strategy.
|
| 10:53 |
: Huge swing in that poll after one ground out.
|
| 10:55 |
: Listening to the Giants broadcast (I don’t have a tv). Interesting discussion.
|
| 10:55 |
: I’m enjoying this TBS broadcast quite a bit.
|
| 10:55 |
: Does Bellinger ever return to form, or is this who he is now?
|
| 10:55 |
: I just think that’s so hard to answer without really know how healthy he actually is.
|
| 10:55 |
: why in the world can’t TBS show the mph?
|
| 10:56 |
: I heard they had some tech issues yesterday, but doesn’t make sense to still be happening.
|
| 10:58 |
: man
|
| 10:58 |
: 53 pitches through 5. Wow
|
| 10:58 |
: I think good color commentary is hard to come by, and Ron Darling is pretty good
|
| 10:58 |
: He’s excellent.
|
| 10:58 |
: Back to the Dodgers, the farm system doesn’t have a Bueller, Urias, Seager coming in the near term, but have lots of guys with upside that are far away. Could that factor into them stepping back with so many FA coming off the books?
|
| 10:58 |
: Not with their willingness to spend….
|
| 10:59 |
: Will Kapler let Webb go a third time through if he’s still spinning like this after the 6th?
|
| 10:59 |
: I don’t see why not.
|
| 10:59 |
: Completely equal pitch count from the three mains. Just working them.
|
| 11:00 |
: What’s the actual swing in run expectancy?
|
| 11:00 |
: runner on first, nobody out is 0.83 runs. With 1 out it drops to .49 runs.
|
| 11:00 |
: What about just plain chance to score?
|
| 11:01 |
: Seems like 49% dropping down to 32%
|
| 11:01 |
: That can’t be right.
|
| 11:01 |
: There is no joy in Tampa, mighty Franco has grounded out. Red Sox win 14-6 and that’s a good thing, if like me, you just want dramatic series.
|
| 11:02 |
: Guesses on whether Barry Bonds is vaxxed?
|
| 11:02 |
: I’d bet on yes.
|
| 11:02 |
:  Logan Webb: Man with a plan
|
| 11:02 |
: Welp, down to one monitor….
|
| 11:04 |
: uh oh
|
| 11:05 |
: It’s become the Tommy La Stella game
|
| 11:05 |
: How’s your phone battery, NG?
|
| 11:05 |
: Oh no, just lost a monitor in terms of the TBR/BOS game ended. Monitor is functioning quite well!
|
| 11:07 |
: ‘Whoosh’ on that ‘Wanders’ joke. (it was a good one, too)
|
| 11:07 |
: I’ve never met another first name Nicklaus. If you’re real, did you Dad really, really, love golf too?
|
| 11:08 |
: *your dad
|
| 11:09 |
: If I’m remembering correctly, Logan Webb was reported to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of seam-shifted wake. Do you think that’s playing a role in neutralizing a Dodgers team that usually nukes sinkers?
|
| 11:09 |
: One of my favorite topics..He has pretty big axis deviations on his sinker and change.
|
| 11:09 |
: Anyone else genuinely shocked by TB having a bad pitching day?
|
| 11:09 |
: In happens . . . they allowed 8+ runs 23 times this year.
|
| 11:10 |
: 
|
| 11:10 |
: What are you chat setups like? Office with games on monitors? Laptop in the living room? Smart phone?
|
| 11:10 |
: I’m at my desk, so my wife can watch TV while I do this. I have a MacBook, second monitor, iPad.
|
| 11:11 |
: Nicklaus, did you answer the first name question?
|
| 11:11 |
: I’ve got a TV in my office with the game on. My computer monitor is half chat, half random other page. Dog to my right, sound asleep.
|
| 11:11 |
: Well, that Seager double makes things mildly interesting.
|
| 11:12 |
: TV in my office. Bunch of stuff on two monitors.
|
| 11:12 |
: That ball was ripped
|
| 11:13 |
: 111 EV
|
| 11:13 |
: game high
|
| 11:13 |
: People are looking ugly against the change
|
| 11:13 |
: Logan Webb is unreal tonight
|
| 11:14 |
: Just…tip of the cap to Webb from this Dodger fan
|
| 11:14 |
: woof. so good.
|
| 11:14 |
: Filthy
|
| 11:14 |
: four changeups…no chances.
|
| 11:16 |
: Webb wasn’t really any kind of prospect right?
|
| 11:16 |
: mostly middling. Luke wrote an excellent article on his evolution.
|
| 11:16 |
: Hey! Thanks!
|
| 11:16 |
: Make that two Dodger fans just dumbfounded with how good Webb’s been tonight.
|
| 11:17 |
: 9 pitches to Trea Turner and only 2 have been in the zone
|
| 11:18 |
: This Kershaw/Hankook ad makes me quite sad
|
| 11:18 |
: The one where Kershaw needs approximately 14 vehicles to catch up to his pitch that just got smashed makes me the saddest.
|
| 11:18 |
: What’s THE DEAL with Logan Webb?
|
| 11:19 |
: When did the third time through the lineup become a concern? There used to be so many more complete games but all those starters weren’t getting blown up late in games
|
| 11:19 |
: The numbers existed then too, and they were similar.
|
| 11:20 |
: Where does Kershaw end up next year?
|
| 11:20 |
: Hard to see anywhere but LA….
|
| 11:20 |
:  Ok, reposting setup, I had some DMs and iMessages visible before….
|
| 11:21 |
: Everyone is dealing until they’re not … Right? Please give me some hope
|
| 11:21 |
: It’s just 2-0, things can change VERY quickly.
|
| 11:22 |
: This game is FAR from over.
|
| 11:22 |
: Re: 3rd time through the order. Is there a sort of general drop off in effectiveness, or do some pitchers demonstrate a stronger ability to “stay elusive” or effective through more rotations of the order?
|
| 11:22 |
: It’s pretty clear that stuff drops, and it’s pretty clear that multiple looks help hitters.
|
| 11:22 |
: KG… Not pictured is the Brugal you’re drinking tonight. lol
|
| 11:22 |
: Haven’t had it since March of 2020 in the DR!
|
| 11:23 |
: Where does Scherzer end up next year?
|
| 11:23 |
: LA
|
| 11:23 |
: I’d call them the favorite. Not an overwhelming one, but the favorite.
|
| 11:24 |
: Here in Canada we get the same broadcast with different ads. No Kershaw in the cutesy Lego ad.
|
| 11:24 |
: So just Molson’s, back bacon and tukes?
|
| 11:24 |
: How are questions selected when multiple FG people are chatting? Does just one of you have the reigns, or can you all independently select questions to show?
|
| 11:24 |
: We all have access to the queue.
|
| 11:25 |
: How much do players talk to each other about their experiences with different teams and does that factor at all in a free agent’s decision?
|
| 11:25 |
: They absolutely call ex-teammates, mostly to ask about the manager.
|
| 11:25 |
: Andrew Bailey is the Giants pitching coach? Wow I feel old
|
| 11:25 |
: Hanger from Webb there. Haven’t been many of those.
|
| 11:26 |
:
Will Smith is on second base with one out in the seventh. Will the Dodgers score?
Yes (50.0% | 27 votes)
No (50.0% | 27 votes)
Total Votes: 54
|
| 11:26 |
: and another
|
| 11:26 |
: yea apparently I was predicting the next pitch too
|
| 11:27 |
: maybe just keep throwing changes until someone actually hits it?
|
| 11:28 |
: It’s interesting to see a game where starters are going so long given the propensity of quick hooks this whole postseason
|
| 11:28 |
: We’ve had some guys go deep (McCullers, Morton, etc.). I wrote today that Cora’s early pulls are by design.
|
| 11:29 |
: That’s at least the second time Beaty has called for time. Trying to beak up Webb’s timing
|
| 11:29 |
: Didn’t work.
|
| 11:29 |
: oh baby
|
| 11:29 |
: confidence to go back to the slider after two hangers. love it.
|
| 11:29 |
: Both healthy, Edwin Rios or Beaty?
|
| 11:29 |
: As the young kids might say, I am an Edwin Rios-stan.
|
| 11:30 |
: That makes me feel good. Really like him.
|
| 11:30 |
: Honestly, the changeup is coming off as hostile at this point.
|
| 11:30 |
: How do you get to be the K fan at a game? Is that seat advertised?
|
| 11:30 |
: I feel like I have answers to most how-the-sausages-are-made questions. I do not have an answer to this question.
|
| 11:31 |
: Any time they show Bellinger’s numbers from 2021 I just grimace
|
| 11:31 |
: I’m sure he does as well.
|
| 11:31 |
: Eat those changes. Just eat them.
|
| 11:32 |
: Webb due up fourth this inning….
|
| 11:32 |
: 9 whiffs on 30 changeups
|
| 11:32 |
: 30!
|
| 11:33 |
: Right? 30 CH, 22 SL, 20 SI
|
| 11:33 |
: Logan Webb is having a good game
|
| 11:33 |
: Makes me wonder what the most CH in a game this year is.
|
| 11:34 |
: To Search!
|
| 11:34 |
: I know at Fenway the K-Men are an actual club. Started out informal and eventually they made a deal with the team as part of a charitable thing.
|
| 11:34 |
: Our readers remain the best.
|
| 11:35 |
: 48 – Luke Weaver
|
| 11:35 |
: This is clearly Walker’s last inning.
|
| 11:35 |
: 48!
|
| 11:35 |
: Most of the top-10 is just Lucas Giolito
|
| 11:35 |
: I saw a minor league kid throw 50-something once.
|
| 11:35 |
: nuts
|
| 11:36 |
: If the Giants can keep this up, they have a good chance of winning this game
|
| 11:36 |
: 50?!
|
| 11:36 |
: Kris Bryant having fun. Good shot he stays a Giant.
|
| 11:36 |
: Anyway, I wrote about the guy who threw all the changeups in a minor league game.
|
| 11:37 |
: I was like “where did I hear that story before?”
|
| 11:37 |
: the last three HR’s buehler’s given up in 3 ball counts were tonight, tonight, and 2018
|
| 11:37 |
: Remarkable.
|
| 11:37 |
: wow
|
| 11:37 |
: I will say it again. Bryant should be hitting where Flores is
|
| 11:37 |
: Batting orders really don’t matter that much.
|
| 11:38 |
: Bryant playing for the team he grew up waiting for, wanted to get to FA so he could go to the West Coast, just all lining up.
|
| 11:38 |
: It’s not the best Buehler start, but he was pretty damn good. Webb was just way better….
|
| 11:41 |
: Has Webb been keeping the change in his back pocket all season? I don’t think he’s ever featured it this heavily…
|
| 11:41 |
: He’s averaged 23.6% with the changeup this season but has gone really heavy in a few starts. The highest per start were 35 (36%), 33 (35.5%), and 31 (41.9%)
|
| 11:41 |
: Pretty great note from Stephanie Apstein of SI (former podcast co-host!): There has only been one walk in this game (Tommy La Stella, to lead off the bottom of the first)
|
| 11:41 |
: Is that why the game feels like it’s flying?
|
| 11:41 |
: The La Stella walk in the bottom of the first is the only walk of the game. (I thought it would paste better)
|
| 11:41 |
: Nice story about Bondurant… truly a reminder of how success in baseball is not granted.
|
| 11:42 |
: It was really fun to talk to him about it. I looked him up on Linkedin, which is the first time I’ve used that site for anything productive.
|
| 11:43 |
: Money is nearly everything, and taxes are a big part of that. When I worked for the Astros, no state tax played a big role. Location matters, but often it’s really spring training location that matters more.
|
| 11:43 |
: Attaboy KB. Like that guy. Give me some percentages though. Money, location (taxes), etc. How do you think players weigh them when signing a contract?
|
| 11:43 |
: (reverse q and a there)
|
| 11:43 |
: Does Kapler keep Webb in now?
|
| 11:43 |
: I’ll be really upset if he doesn’t.
|
| 11:43 |
: But he could come up this inning.
|
| 11:43 |
: Holy crap, Webb is hitting.
|
| 11:43 |
: I mean, he’s fine!
|
| 11:44 |
: Why does spring training location matter more?
|
| 11:44 |
: Mother*swearword*
|
| 11:44 |
: Families always go, so it’s six weeks in one spot. Also a LOT of players live in Arizona or Florida….
|
| 11:44 |
: Seager’s probably gone after this year in LA, right? Feels like a buyer’s market for SS this offseason, probably the best fit in STL, yeah?
|
| 11:44 |
: St. Louis already has Paul DeJong
|
| 11:45 |
: You forgot Sosa!
|
| 11:45 |
: Who I like!
|
| 11:45 |
: You’re right!
|
| 11:45 |
: He’s grown on me.
|
| 11:45 |
: yeah, but…[gestures vaguely]
|
| 11:45 |
: Any chance Seager ends up at 3B for someone next year?
|
| 11:45 |
: I think IF he was going to change positions, 2B would be better fit, but he’s going to want to be paid as a SS.
|
| 11:46 |
: Looked it up, Boras is the agent.
|
| 11:46 |
: Bryant had a quiet September, hit his way to the 6-hole. Looking better lately, huh?
|
| 11:46 |
: Are more at bats over time from batting higher up in the order not a concern?
|
| 11:47 |
: I think the Giants really liked the Flores/Buehler matchup.
|
| 11:47 |
: big crop of SS though this offseason with not a lot of teams with big needs there. seems like a decent time to buy IMO
|
| 11:47 |
: It is a really nice group.
|
| 11:48 |
: I think Correa will be everyone’s No. 1 target.
|
| 11:49 |
:
Webb is at 81 pitches with 1 out in the 8th and a 1-2 count to Pollock. Will he get a Maddux
Yup (30.0% | 18 votes)
Nope (70.0% | 42 votes)
Total Votes: 60
|
| 11:50 |
: A lot a great things said about Semien as a real leader and professional in Toronto.
|
| 11:50 |
: He’s a phenomenal presence .
|
| 11:50 |
: I’m really interested to see where Semien goes/what he gets.
|
| 11:51 |
: Great fit for both of these teams…..
|
| 11:51 |
: And he’s a Bay Area guy.
|
| 11:52 |
: Good call. And if he came back he could rub it in Oakland’s face that much more.
|
| 11:52 |
: Will they really let him go 9?
|
| 11:52 |
: He’s at 85, I see no reason not so at this point.
|
| 11:53 |
: All of the changes.
|
| 11:53 |
: Pitch counts also aren’t everything. Big difference between a relaxed 88 pitches with no real stress and 88 over five with all sorts of traffic.
|
| 11:53 |
: And this has been relaxing
|
| 11:54 |
: No inning more than 14 also a huge factor.
|
| 11:55 |
: Crawford’s defense at this age must be a rarity right? Is this an exceptional productive SS season relative to age?
|
| 11:55 |
: He’s more of a 60 SS than the seventy he used to be, but yes, the defense has aged remarkably well in a very rare way.
|
| 11:55 |
: Wow, surprised at the pull. Betts hit a laser, but that’s gonna happen.
|
| 11:55 |
: 36 changeups is season high
|
| 11:55 |
:
Should Webb have been pulled here?
Yes (56.7% | 38 votes)
No (43.2% | 29 votes)
Total Votes: 67
|
| 11:56 |
: Hey… anyone want to over-analyze a pitching change?
|
| 11:56 |
: This is the right call but it sucks
|
| 11:56 |
: Really thought they’d leave him in
|
| 11:56 |
: Hell of a night from Webb
|
| 11:56 |
: Enjoying the podcast btw. Rowley is a treat everytime I hear her. We need more David Roth though.
|
| 11:56 |
: David will be back, he’s a busy man, but I agree he is wonderful. For him to sit in the co-host chair for episode number one absolutely made my week. Also, thanks for listening! The show has been really fun this year.
|
| 11:57 |
: Pretty damn even on the pull/no pull poll. #PullNoPullPoll
|
| 11:57 |
: I’m totally a romantic about these things, but there’s a 3 run lead, and only 4 outs left to go. Bank the success, get a fresh arm to get the few outs left.
|
| 11:58 |
: Seager does have the hardest hit of the night off Webb
|
| 11:59 |
: Trevor May tweeted that he wore a heart rate monitor during 45 appearances this year. His average max HR was 192. What do you think Webb’s max is for tonight?
|
| 11:59 |
: 12
|
| 11:59 |
: The Rogers twins are an absolute joy
|
| 11:59 |
: Unique pitchers are fun #analysis
|
| 12:02 |
: The fact that there are a pair of giant twin pitchers and they play for the Giants and Twins is beautiful
|
| 12:02 |
: Alex Vesia: 17th round pick from Cal State: East Bay and the only alumni of that school to reach the bigs.
|
| 12:03 |
: Happy Saturday, East Coast folks.
|
| 12:03 |
:
Is it Saturday where you are?
Yes (38.5% | 22 votes)
No (61.4% | 35 votes)
Total Votes: 57
|
| 12:04 |
: Dodgers closer next year is Jansen, Treinen, or someone else?
|
| 12:04 |
:
Is the Dodgers closer next year . . . ?
Jansen (30.7% | 16 votes)
Treinen (55.7% | 29 votes)
Someone else (13.4% | 7 votes)
Total Votes: 52
|
| 12:05 |
: Bad mustache though…
|
| 12:05 |
: No such thing.
|
| 12:06 |
: Will KG defer to polls for all remaining questions in the chat?
|
| 12:06 |
:
Will I defer to polls for all remaining questions tonight?
Yes (70.2% | 26 votes)
No (29.7% | 11 votes)
Total Votes: 37
|
| 12:06 |
: Relief pitcher moustaches are a treasure
|
| 12:07 |
: If they were any more so, Nicolas Cage would be trying to find them.
|
| 12:07 |
: I feel like even as we got to the playoffs, people were waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Giants.
|
| 12:07 |
: And it just won’t.
|
| 12:08 |
: Is that only because it used to be Cal State Hayward?
|
| 12:08 |
: Crap. Good to have a native in the chat. School of Joe Morgan!
|
| 12:08 |
: Yeah I was a shoe drop waiter
|
| 12:08 |
: Crawford should get MVP votes
|
| 12:09 |
: He will.
|
| 12:09 |
: He’ll probably finish top 5.
|
| 12:09 |
: How fun is this game?!
|
| 12:09 |
: Honestly, it was more fun at 2-0 when a bloop and a blast could tie it…..
|
| 12:10 |
: yea the middle innings were some of the best we’ve had from the playoffs so far.
|
| 12:10 |
: are the giants… good?
|
| 12:10 |
: I have no idea what the counter argument would be at this point.
|
| 12:11 |
: Time for the Camilo Doval experience. No biggie, just 99 with a plus-plus 85-88 mph slider.
|
| 12:12 |
: I enjoy them, but why do you think the Giants/Rays brand of ball seems boring to so many?
|
| 12:12 |
: I don’t think the Giants and Rays are really that similar….
|
| 12:12 |
: As long as he doesn’t throw changeups…
|
| 12:12 |
: He hasn’t all year!
|
| 12:13 |
: Doval is super fun to watch pitch, for those who haven’t.
|
| 12:13 |
: Also has excellent hair.
|
| 12:13 |
: Do you think the giants are onto something by having lots of SPs that throw change ups (webb, gausman, desclafani, wood)
|
| 12:13 |
: I’m a big fan of changeups, especially as hitters are constantly needing to gear up for more and more velo.
|
| 12:14 |
: Nobody saw 107 wins coming, but we’re any of you relatively bullish on SF at the start of the year? Or are we all in the same boat here?
|
| 12:14 |
: I was really in on Gausman…and that was about it.
|
| 12:14 |
: I was waiting for the shoe to drop all year, but I’m done with that.
|
| 12:15 |
: Doval from a town in the DR called Yamasa. Thanks to my previous life, I can say I’ve been there!
|
| 12:15 |
: can o’ corn
|
| 12:16 |
: Mr. Doval seems quite excited.
|
| 12:17 |
: He’s just absolutely chucking it. Just aiming for the box. No need to locate, and not even trying.
|
| 12:17 |
: Ball game. Thanks so much to everyone for joining us! We’ll have more of these next week!
|
| 12:17 |
: Thanks guys.
|
| 12:17 |
: Thank you!
|
| 12:17 |
: This is gonna be a fun series
|
| 12:17 |
: Thanks!
|
| 12:17 |
: Yea, fun night! good game! Cheers everyone!
|
| 12:17 |
: You’re welcome
|
| 12:17 |
: Thank you, these chats are a ton of fun
|
| 12:18 |
: Great game!
|
| 12:18 |
: Thanks guys! What a short game…
|
| 12:18 |
: These chats are so fun. Thanks everyone.
|
| 12:18 |
: Gj sirs
|
| 12:18 |
: A sub 3 hour playoff game!
|
| 12:18 |
: A little different than the chat for STL/LAD
|
| 12:18 |
: Thanks again, everyone!
|
Meg is the editor-in-chief of FanGraphs and the co-host of Effectively Wild. Prior to joining FanGraphs, her work appeared at Baseball Prospectus, Lookout Landing, and Just A Bit Outside. You can follow her on Bluesky @megrowler.fangraphs.com.