FanGraphs Dodgers/Giants NLDS Game 1 Chat by Meg Rowley October 8, 2021 9:30 Kevin Goldstein: Hi everyone. Let’s get weird. 9:31 Kevin Goldstein: Thanks so much for joining us tonight. We love doing these, and they’ve been a big hit this week. 9:31 Luke Hooper: Now that Young Sheldon is over, the real fun can begin! 9:31 Nicklaus Gaut: Welcome, everyone! 9:32 Kevin Goldstein: I’m here with Luke Hooper and we will be watching Dodgers/Giants and the rest of this wacky game in Tampa. We will provide insight, hopefully some laughs, weird polls, and of course, you can ask us . . . well anything! 9:32 Nicklaus Gaut: I’m all jacked up on expresso and am ready to start. 9:32 Nicklaus Gaut: Logan Webb has the 2nd-highest GB% among starters. His sinker is 3rd and his changeup is 2nd. 9:33 Kevin Goldstein: I need coffee, but I poured a cocktail instead. It’s night, we’re staying up late, live a little. 9:33 Nicklaus Gaut: The Dodgers have the second-highest FB% vs all pitches from RHP and the 6th-highest vs sinkers+changeups. 9:33 Nicklaus Gaut: The first five times Buehler faced the Giants this year, he allowed a total of 3 ER in 37 IP. In the last one, he allowed 6 ER in 3 IP. 9:33 Nicklaus Gaut: I am EXCITED to see what happens. 9:33 Kevin Goldstein: Was that fan interference in Tampa? Yes (18.0% | 9 votes) No (40.0% | 20 votes) I’m not watching THAT game! (42.0% | 21 votes) Total Votes: 50 9:34 Giants Fan: aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa 9:34 Kevin Goldstein: Is that excitement or nervousness? 9:34 Luke Hooper: If for some reason you aren’t hyped, watch the hype videos! Giants: SFGiants @SFGiants A historic rivalry reaches new heights. #BeatLA #ResilientSF | #Postseason 8 Oct 2021 Dodgers: https://twitter.com/Dodgers/status/1446507127913136134 9:34 Marshall: Would the Dodgers prefer to face the Giants in a best of 5 or best of 7 series? 9:36 Luke Hooper: I have to imagine the Dodgers would prefer a 7 game series. They think they are the better team. More games favors the better team. Giants would probably say the same. 9:34 Kevin Goldstein: I think any team would want as long as possible of a series in order to avoid the randomness of baseball as much as possible. 9:35 Geoff Williams: Does no Muncy alter your opinions of how the series is going to play out? 9:35 Kevin Goldstein: I mean, it’s obviously a negative, but in a five-game series, it’s really anyone’s. 9:35 Joe Kelly is here: Is that Muppet Halloween special any gud? 9:35 Nicklaus Gaut: I’ll have to let you know later…I offered it to the kiddos tonight and it got rejected. 9:35 How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Found cookies in the pantry. This is going to be good. 9:35 Nicklaus Gaut: Good start. 9:36 Kevin Goldstein: Since I hate playoff predictions, how about simply how many games will the SFG/LAD series go? 3 (1.6% | 1 vote) 4 (20.3% | 12 votes) 5 (47.4% | 28 votes) Somehow, and in defiance of all logic, 6 (30.5% | 18 votes) Total Votes: 59 9:37 Ghost of Lincecum’s Hair: Does Buelher’s shaky start against the Giants last time out matter here at all? Is it predictive, or just an aberration? 9:37 Nicklaus Gaut: I’ll take the five good starts this season over the one bad one. 9:37 Friend: I love baseball 9:37 Kevin Goldstein: We do too, and we’re so happy you are here to share your love with us. 9:38 Kevin Goldstein: Ron Darling in the booth? Fantastic. 9:38 Bill: What kind of cocktail are you drinking? 9:38 Kevin Goldstein: Bourbon and Cheerwine 9:38 Nicklaus Gaut: In all seriousness, it is great that so many people join the chats. It’s a lot of fun to watch a game with a bunch of other people that love baseball so much that they want to also be typing about it while watching. 9:38 Luke Hooper: Yea this is probably my favorite postseason booth. Other than the nerd cast 9:39 weezy: Love the chats! Is there a schedule for the playoff FG chats? 9:39 Kevin Goldstein: Not set in stone, but we’re shooting for every weeknight (no promises). 9:39 Millionaire stickball: how tight do buehlers pants look. I’m just listening on the radio 9:39 Nicklaus Gaut: Haven’t seen them yet but I’ll keep my eyes out. 9:39 How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: Do scouting reports for playoff series include extra information? 9:39 Kevin Goldstein: They do. Usually some pro folks or extra analysts get pushed to advance work for the post-season. 9:39 Kevin Goldstein: Whether that’s extra USEFUL information is debatable at times. 9:40 Sean: Coming to you live from my vacation in Hawaii. Hope this is fun! 9:40 Kevin Goldstein: Look, again, we LOVE chatting with you, but on your vacation in Hawaii? 9:41 Nicklaus Gaut: I love how well Webb’s stuff works together. 9:41 Luke Hooper: Webb has been such a joy to watch this year. 9:41 Kevin Goldstein: Would you have started Webb or Guasman in game one? Gausman (31.4% | 17 votes) Webb (55.5% | 30 votes) Jesse Foppert (12.9% | 7 votes) Total Votes: 54 9:42 Mark Walter: Seager with the productive out lol 9:42 Kevin Goldstein: Somebody watched White Sox/Astros the afternoon. Somehow, it was only the 73rd most offensive thing said…. 9:42 Nicklaus Gaut: Elite vertical movement with three pitches and his 2021 sinker is just such a handful to do anything with. 9:43 Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, there’s a weird audio mismatch on the field in the game, it’s real weird. 9:43 Nicklaus Gaut: And a beaut! 9:43 Luke Hooper: Wow! Thought that was for sure a run when it hit his foot. 9:43 Glorp: Congrats to Jesse Plemons for getting the start for the Giants 9:43 How Bobby Grich Stole Christmas: There is nothing better than watching playoff baseball from the pool tiki bar in Hawaii (night games only) 9:44 weezy: Pre-season projections loved Logan Webb, but that didn’t look great through May. Now he’s starting game 1 for team with the best record in baseball, ahead of Gausman. Baseball is fun. 9:44 Nicklaus Gaut: It really is. 9:44 Kevin Goldstein: It’s the best team sport. It’s really the only team sport I even follow. 9:45 Mark Walter: Would be interesting to know if that would’ve got through the middle. Seems like it’s time to show where the infielders are positioned on each pitch 9:45 Luke Hooper: Didn’t TBS show player position in the past? 9:45 Lzfreak: What does the Giants rotation look like next year? 9:45 Kevin Goldstein: The think they bring Gausman back, and he’s indicated he wants to stay. After him and Webb, it’s going to take some work. 9:46 Kevin Goldstein: Follow up on previous question: Walker’s pants are 70-grade tight. 9:47 Nicklaus Gaut: “How dare you?” – Johnny Cueto 9:47 Kevin Goldstein: I’m happy to see Boston winning and hope it stays that way, in that I just would like a really good series. 9:48 weezy: How much do losing Muncy & Belt change series win expectancy? Do they cancel each other out? Are personnel shifts like that marginal anyway? 9:48 Kevin Goldstein: It’s hard to move the needle a TON in a five game series. I think the Giants lose less because they have better backup options, and Muncy is a better player than Belt, so it’s an even bigger dropoff. 9:48 Guest: Wander Franco can play ball 9:48 Nicklaus Gaut: One of them can. 9:49 Kevin Goldstein: There are three of ’em. 9:49 Kevin Goldstein: Even the announcer got way too excited on the mildly deep F9 by Crawford. 9:50 Lzfreak: More than 3. His son is also Wander 9:50 Kevin Goldstein: There you go. I got to know the big-ish 3B in the Astros system during my time there. Big pop, just couldn’t hit enough. 9:50 David (formerly Sonoma State): Robbie Ray’s pants are 80-grade then, right? 9:51 Nicklaus Gaut: Regardless of scale, Ray is the top mark. It’s a constant of the universe. 9:51 Lzfreak: This wind graphic is fascinating 9:51 MFG1975: Who had “Boston 9+ Runs” on their bingo board tonight? 9:51 Kevin Goldstein: They finished 4th in the AL in runs this year, you can’t be shocked. I know Baz is great, but that’s a crazy tough assignment for your third career big league start. 9:51 Kevin Goldstein: BUSTER POSEY 9:52 Nicklaus Gaut: old man strength! 9:52 Kevin Goldstein: That’s why you green light good hitters 3-0 9:52 Luke Hooper: Oppo shots are not a common siting there 9:52 Luke Hooper: No righty has ever hit one in the water. And that one looked darn close. 9:53 Kevin Goldstein: Really? 9:53 Nicklaus Gaut: That’s crazy 9:53 Luke Hooper: 99% certain haha 9:54 Kevin Goldstein: I’m kind of fascinated as to how Alex Cora is managing. I think he’s really good at it. 9:54 Kevin Goldstein: I wonder if he’ll try to get six outs from Whitlock…. 9:54 Gronch: Can confirm, 0 righty splash hits 9:55 weezy: does that one count as a splash hit? On one bounce, and might have gotten there if it didn’t hit that high stack 9:55 Luke Hooper: It’s only an official splash on the fly 9:55 A.J. Putzinski: Which team had the most IL days of any team this year? Is there a better metric for measuring injury impact? Wife thinks her White Sox had the toughest year injury-wise which has the feel of a “my state has the worst drivers” kind of statement. She’s wrong, right? 9:55 Nicklaus Gaut: @drhoa3 can probably tell you 9:55 Guest: Giants have been swinging at 3-0 pitches all year. 9:55 Nicklaus Gaut: Good 9:56 Nicklaus Gaut: I’ve spent much of my life being annoyed at pitchers throwing 3-0 meatballs. 9:56 Mark Walter: First playoff HR in 9 years for Posey. 9:56 Luke Hooper: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/disabled-list/cumulative-team/ 9:56 Phil: Hell of an inning from Brasier. 9:56 Kevin Goldstein: He’s looked very good for a month or so now. 9:56 Luke Hooper: This say Padres most IL time. Dodgers at 4, Giants at 6 9:57 Kevin Goldstein: The White Sox more had BIG injuries to Eloy and Robert and Yasmani for a bit. 9:57 Kevin Goldstein: but they’re all good to go now and it’s not helping. 9:58 Nicklaus Gaut: He was not jiggy with that. 9:59 Nicklaus Gaut: Webb’s stuff looks like its really moving well to start. 10:00 Kevin Goldstein: Good baseball today. Astros/White Sox was good until the 7th, Braves/Brewers good thru 9, TB/BOS still good all the way…. 10:00 Nicklaus Gaut: man… 10:00 NickG: Kevin, you really think Muncy is better than Belt? Like clear-cut? I’m a Giants fan but they seem fairly equivalent if I’m trying to be objective. 10:00 Kevin Goldstein: I think Muncy is a more dangerous AB, but it’s not some kind of slam dunk. 10:01 Alf: Is there an argument against technology assisting or replacing the umpires with the strike zone that isn’t a variation of “I like games to be affected by umpires’ mistakes?” 10:01 Kevin Goldstein: The technology just isn’t ready for prime time. 10:02 Kevin Goldstein: Ok, Boston/Rays game good thru the 8th, Devers bomb puts them up 11-6 10:03 Scuffy mcgee: My best friend is a Giants fan. I love the Dodgers. After that bomb he thinks I should name my kid Gerald Posey, with my last name .Thoughts ? 10:03 Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think you should name your kid after a baseball player. 10:04 Nicklaus Gaut: Unless it’s Lip Pike or Fergy Malone. 10:03 Mark Walter: Posey had a .649 career playoff OPS before tonight. How much lower would that have to be for them not to trot out the “Posey has a history of clutch playoff performance” meme 10:03 Luke Hooper: When you hit a grand slam in a winner-take-all game you get the clutch label forever, and I’m fine with that. 10:05 Luke Hooper: But yes, he’s spent most of his career being completely worn down by the time the playoffs come around. Kapler has really gone easy on him this year though. 10:04 weezy: This might be my favorite baseball day every year. 4 playoff games, running throughout the day 10:04 Nicklaus Gaut: It’s a good one. 10:04 Kevin Goldstein: That was an exceptionally tough play for Seager, but he’s still a fringy defender, and if you watched the Astros game and the defense they played, it’s pretty easy to see why I think Correa will surpass him in terms of $$$ with room to spare. 10:06 Luke Hooper: There was A LOT of talk in yesterday’s chat about the upcoming free agent short stops. 10:05 Stan: True or false; the Giants expanded on-field coaching staff will be one of the most copied trends in baseball next spring? 10:05 Kevin Goldstein: If you said over the next three years, I’d say absolutely. Baseball changes at a glacial pace. 10:06 Johnny J: It amuses me whenever I hear that Kapler “did” this or that… 10:06 Kevin Goldstein: He’s actually done a phenomenal job. 10:06 Nicklaus Gaut: RE: current state of Wander Francos 10:06 Nicklaus Gaut: There are five 10:06 Kevin Goldstein: So many managers in baseball, so many really good managers in baseball were bad in their first job. 10:07 NickG: Would be big for the Giants if 2020 Yaz joined the team for the 2021 playoffs…is my keen insight. 10:07 Nicklaus Gaut: yeah, that guy could hit LHP 10:07 Nicklaus Gaut: I’m glad it looks like I’m talking to myself. 10:08 Kevin Goldstein: Why should tonight be any different? 10:08 Nicklaus Gaut: Excellent point! 10:08 Phil: Does this count as Cora’s second manager job? 10:08 Kevin Goldstein: fun question. Gonna say no. 10:08 Gronch: Excuse me, they are Wanders Franco… 10:08 Nicklaus Gaut: Five. 10:09 Steph: I don’t get Kapler’s vibe though, despite his successes. Total hardo intensity in Philly, now going for this exmarine professorial vibe in San Fran? Pick a lane gabe 10:09 Kevin Goldstein: He learned, he adjusted. Don’t get mad at somebody for changing for the better…. 10:09 Kevin Goldstein: PRETTY DOUBLE PLAYS ARE COOL. 10:09 Lzfreak: How is Longoria only a 3 time all star? 10:09 Nicklaus Gaut: Seems light. 10:10 Scuffy mcgee: What’s the Giants biggest weakness? 10:10 Kevin Goldstein: I can’t answer this with out Nicklaus and Luke rolling their eyes and calling me names. 10:10 Nicklaus Gaut: I plomise not too 10:10 Luke Hooper: You can’t see my eyes, so answer away! 10:10 Kevin Goldstein: I just don’t know who their aircraft carrier is. Maybe after that HR, it’s Posey. 10:13 Luke Hooper: Yup. They don’t have the top-end talent of the Dodgers. 10:11 Nicklaus Gaut: no eye roll from me 10:11 TooDamnTall: Love all the chats this week! 10:11 Nicklaus Gaut: Us too! 10:12 Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, thanks again for joining us. All sorts of playoff coverage, previews, game stories, podcasts (listen to Chin Music you fools!) at FanGraphs, and now I will also ask you to support FanGraphs so we can keep on doing it. 10:13 Enthused Giants fan: Could Scott Harris be an under the radar candidate for the Mets president of Basebal Ops job? It doesn’t seem like the Giants could block him with Farhan at the top spot and seems like from afar he’s had success everywhere he’s been 10:13 Kevin Goldstein: I think it’s an excellent name actually. He’s very well respected in the industry, and I’ve always like my interactions with him. 10:14 Luke Hooper: He does seem like the easiest candidate to poach. That’s a hard position to keep around. 10:13 TooDamnTall: Kevin, you’ve mentioned a few times what a coin flip the playoffs are. Do you evaluate the best team by regular season standings or some other way? 10:13 Kevin Goldstein: I think that’s a good start, but you have to do some mental calculus to account for injuries and the unbalanced schedule…. 10:14 Kevin Goldstein: To steal from Marc Carig: Logan Webb has THE GOOD STUFF 10:15 Nicklaus Gaut: nasty 10:16 Belli Flop: My Dodgers are gonna get caught in the Webb, aren’t they… 10:16 Nicklaus Gaut: Stuff is really working tonight. 10:17 Kevin Goldstein: How many runs will it take to win this game? 2 (15.0% | 8 votes) 3 (11.3% | 6 votes) 4 (50.9% | 27 votes) 5 (18.8% | 10 votes) 6+ (3.7% | 2 votes) Total Votes: 53 10:18 Phil: Whitlock for the 9th, or no need with a 5-run lead? 10:18 Lzfreak: Oh what a tangled Webb we weave 10:18 Kevin Goldstein: Might let Robles finish it (16 pitches), but there is the off day . . . 10:18 Nicklaus Gaut: Can draw up much of a better start for Webb. 10:19 Kevin Goldstein: Did you mean to add a “‘t” there? 10:19 Nicklaus Gaut: Whoops! 10:19 Scuffy mcgee: Seager a dodger next year? If so who is at 2b. 10:19 Luke Hooper: Well, he did give up a hit 10:19 Kevin Goldstein: I think he’s gone, Turner is SS and someone else is 2B (Semien?) 10:20 Alf: We demand perfection from technology, but are ok with constant human error. True with both self-driving vehicles and umpiring. 10:20 Kevin Goldstein: I mean, bad umpiring doesn’t destroy property or injure people . . . are you a google plant? 10:20 Lzfreak: Shouldn’t Turner be playing SS over Seager? 10:20 Kevin Goldstein: I wouldn’t go that far, or anywhere near it. 10:21 Gronch: Listen, as a Giants I can tell you that the Dodgers stars are so good they have the potential to blast even the best stuff sometimes 10:21 Nicklaus Gaut: Yes they can but they’ll have to really earn it. Webb has only allowed nine home runs and has the third-lowest HR/9 among starters. 10:21 Nicklaus Gaut: But the Dodgers certainly have the bats to do it. 10:22 Kevin Goldstein: Webb was a fourth-round pick in 2014 out of Rocklin HS in California. I don’t remember him in the draft at all, but Houston wasn’t spending much time on non first-round HS pitchers…. 10:23 Jason: Boy you gotta like how web is getting a tin of balls cakled strikes, looks like a set up 10:23 Kevin Goldstein: Stop it. Just stop it. 10:24 David (formerly Sonoma State): “I call him the rookie from Rocklin, but this is his fourth year in the bigs, but he’s a rookie for the playoffs.” Broadcast quality continues to disappoint…… 10:24 Kevin Goldstein: That’s why I said 70! 10:24 Nicklaus Gaut: Do you like watching with the K-zone on? Yes (53.6% | 37 votes) No (46.3% | 32 votes) Total Votes: 69 10:25 Gavin: So the umpires are in on the Giants scheme too? Q, that you? 10:25 Kevin Goldstein: There’s a basement at a pizza place in Washington DC where the deep state and the umpires union gather to . . . . 10:27 Kevin Goldstein: Unpopular thought (one in a series): MLB umpires are really good. They screw up, sometimes a lot, but they’re really good. Go to some minor league games or college games and you’ll appreciate how good they are more. 10:28 Luke Hooper: Or go to one of the little league games I used to ump. It ain’t easy. 10:28 Nicklaus Gaut: Watching lower-level umps really does make you appreciate the MLB ones. 10:28 A.J. Putzinski: Not familiar with the specifics of his ban, but what would it take for Steve Cohen to consider Jeff Luhnow? 10:28 Kevin Goldstein: Maybe shouldn’t step into this, but I do know the answer . . . 10:29 Kevin Goldstein: He has served his suspension, so he could be hired. After what the Mets have been through, I can’t see Cohen wanting any part of the PR aspect of that hire. 10:30 Ryan: Played D3 baseball, can confirm. 10:30 Phil: I covered Division III baseball for a year as a photographer–totally agree with you about umpiring. Those guys (mostly very young) were trying hard and were ambitious to succeed, not lazy or indifferent. It’s just difficult. 10:31 Luke Hooper: Big mistake there, free leadoff runner. 10:32 NickG: Could that Flores hit be the softest exit velocity with the highest launch angle in the stat cast era? (Took me forever to type this, so kinda missed the moment.) 10:32 Nicklaus Gaut: He has a lot of company. For example, Juan Lagares, who blistered a 29.1 mph (81-degree LA) laser in June. 10:32 Bobby Thomson: Have the Giants actually figured out something new with the aging curve and how to get more production out if declining hitters? If so any speculation on what it is? 10:32 Kevin Goldstein: I’m not sure it’s that. I do think they’re onto something int terms of maximizing performances for reasons beyond age. 10:34 Layne: I thought Flores couldn’t hit rhp. Why are Giants playing him against Buehler? Or did he figure righties out this year? 10:34 Nicklaus Gaut: His splits were actually remarkably similar this season, with only a slight advantage vs LHP. But he also hasn’t been as good vs LHP than in the past. 10:34 TooDamnTall: How much extra consideration would a FA give to the Giants due to their success with player production this year? 10:34 Kevin Goldstein: I think it might help with veteran minor league FA more than big money players. 10:35 Kevin Goldstein: Can I just say here that I love good defense? 10:36 Mark Walter: If you’re in the front office for some other team, how much time do you spend on specifically figuring out what the Giants are doing? 10:36 Nicklaus Gaut: WOW! 10:36 Kevin Goldstein: I do know someone with another team who tries to reverse engineer the reason for their lineup on a daily basis….. 10:36 Luke Hooper: Nice getting a plug for a betting site instead of a replay 10:36 Nicklaus Gaut: But you only have to bet $1! 10:37 Jackson: Double plays are fun 10:37 Italian beef w/ giardiniera: that was spectacular 10:37 Belli Flop: Holy &!@* 10:37 NickG: !!wow!! 10:37 Nicklaus Gaut: All of the above 10:37 Ron: If you think it’s the best person for the job, what does PR matter? When you win ppl seem to find a way to suddenly forgive and/or forget don’t they? I suppose it’s the possibility of not winning? 10:37 Kevin Goldstein: I think there’s a scale there, and if it was any team other than the Mets, I might say I highly doubt it as opposed to no way. Mets have had enough bad PR (and deservedly so for the most part) in the last 12 months to last a decade…. 10:38 MFG1975: That outside strike (to RHB) has been there for Webb, so now the Dodgers are fishing out there. 10:38 Nicklaus Gaut: If you’re getting calls there, keep testing it. Interested to see if there’s an adjustment. 10:39 Gronch: Flores is in the lineup because of his ability to make contact with high velocity fastballs at the top of the zone. Big hole for Ruf, the other option 10:40 Luke Hooper: Good stuff! 10:39 Kevin Goldstein: Are you that person with another team I was talking about? 10:39 Phil: I’m still watching the other game, though it’s getting a bit silly. Are you surprised Cash let Wacha eat it this long? Just finally took him out. 10:39 Kevin Goldstein: I think he was hoping not to use another arm…. 10:40 Gronch: I am extremely NOT an analyst 10:41 weezy: Has there been a statement on why TBS isn’t using k zone? 10:41 Nicklaus Gaut: They have it tonight but didn’t in the NL Wild card. No explanation. 10:41 Geebs: is there enough consistency game to game in an umpires strike zone that teams scout/study them? 10:41 Kevin Goldstein: Absolutely. Every advance package has umpire reports and they can play a role in game planning. 10:42 Luke Hooper: Bottom of the zone is closed. Outside corner is definitely open. That’s my report. 10:43 Kevin Goldstein: Bryant is the only person in the Giant lineup I saw as an amateur for work purposes. Dodgers have four. 10:44 Belli Flop: Which four? 10:44 Kevin Goldstein: T. Turner, Pollock, Smith, Beuhler 10:45 Kevin Goldstein: I saw Bryant at the WAC tourney in Stockton, CA. The only hotel was a La Quinta, but it was across the street from an In-And-Out, so you take the good with the bad. 10:45 David (formerly Sonoma State): Do more people show up for these game chats, or scheduled “standard” chats? 10:45 Kevin Goldstein: About the same. Lighter crowd tonight. I blame the time and Friday night, but we’re still bringing the energy. 10:46 Millionaire stickball: What did people think of Smith back in the day 10:46 Kevin Goldstein: He went around where people thought he would (32nd overall). 10:46 Scuffy mcgee: Who did you like most 10:46 Kevin Goldstein: Look, I said tons of very wrong stuff, but I said the Astros should take Bryant and Mark Appel that year . . . . 10:47 Don: Admittedly, I’m finishing A Star is Born (Bradley Cooper/ Lady Gaga) then tuning in for the rest of the game. I really enjoy these chats though. What are your views on Ron Washington becoming a manager again? All of you, but Kevin particularly? He’s made his mistakes, as I’m sure all of us have (some of his clearly publicly), but he seems like a great baseball guy who has moved past those things. 10:48 Luke Hooper: He’s seems ready for another shot, if he wants it. He seems like he likes his current gig a lot too. 10:47 Kevin Goldstein: He’s a great baseball guy, and I think he’d actually be a very good candidate in San Diego. 10:47 David (formerly Sonoma State): Bryant OVER Appel that year? 10:47 Kevin Goldstein: Yeah, that. 10:48 Lzfreak: Which was more impressive: Giants 2010-2014 or Dodgers 2012-2020? 10:48 Nicklaus Gaut: Hard to argue with the titles 10:48 Kevin Goldstein: helluva unexpected changeup there from Walker. 10:48 Luke Hooper: waaaay out in front. 10:48 Alf: Would the Astros be better off or worse off if they had listened to everything you advised? 10:49 Kevin Goldstein: I mean, they’d still have Josh Hader…… 10:49 Nicklaus Gaut: Yaz would agree with the ‘unexpected’ part 10:49 David (formerly Sonoma State): Amazing pitch 10:50 Marqueef Grissom: wow a changeup is a nervy pitch after flying open on a few fastballs this frame 10:50 Captain Cantaloupe: Over/under for the next year when the Dodgers will have a losing season? 10:50 Kevin Goldstein: The Yankees haven’t had one since 1992, so it could be a very long time and I have no reason to think it’s coming, either sooner or later…. 10:51 Luke Hooper: Shouldn’t happen anytime soon. 10:51 Kevin Goldstein: Will smith led off the 5th with a single, will the Dodgers score in this inning? Yup (41.6% | 20 votes) Nope (58.3% | 28 votes) Total Votes: 48 10:53 Kevin Goldstein: The Dodgers now have a man on first with ONE OUT, will they score this inning? Yup (15.5% | 7 votes) Nope (84.4% | 38 votes) Total Votes: 45 10:53 Kevin Goldstein: Man, out out changes a lot! 10:53 Nicklaus Gaut: Give up a hit, get a groundball. Excellent strategy. 10:53 Luke Hooper: Huge swing in that poll after one ground out. 10:55 T: Listening to the Giants broadcast (I don’t have a tv). Interesting discussion. 10:55 Luke Hooper: I’m enjoying this TBS broadcast quite a bit. 10:55 Josh Maxson: Does Bellinger ever return to form, or is this who he is now? 10:55 Kevin Goldstein: I just think that’s so hard to answer without really know how healthy he actually is. 10:55 Clueless: why in the world can’t TBS show the mph? 10:56 Kevin Goldstein: I heard they had some tech issues yesterday, but doesn’t make sense to still be happening. 10:58 Nicklaus Gaut: man 10:58 Luke Hooper: 53 pitches through 5. Wow 10:58 weezy: I think good color commentary is hard to come by, and Ron Darling is pretty good 10:58 Kevin Goldstein: He’s excellent. 10:58 Andy: Back to the Dodgers, the farm system doesn’t have a Bueller, Urias, Seager coming in the near term, but have lots of guys with upside that are far away. Could that factor into them stepping back with so many FA coming off the books? 10:58 Kevin Goldstein: Not with their willingness to spend…. 10:59 Gavin: Will Kapler let Webb go a third time through if he’s still spinning like this after the 6th? 10:59 Kevin Goldstein: I don’t see why not. 10:59 Nicklaus Gaut: Completely equal pitch count from the three mains. Just working them. 11:00 NickG: What’s the actual swing in run expectancy? 11:00 Luke Hooper: runner on first, nobody out is 0.83 runs. With 1 out it drops to .49 runs. 11:00 Kevin Goldstein: What about just plain chance to score? 11:01 Luke Hooper: Seems like 49% dropping down to 32% 11:01 Luke Hooper: That can’t be right. 11:01 Kevin Goldstein: There is no joy in Tampa, mighty Franco has grounded out. Red Sox win 14-6 and that’s a good thing, if like me, you just want dramatic series. 11:02 Andy: Guesses on whether Barry Bonds is vaxxed? 11:02 Kevin Goldstein: I’d bet on yes. 11:02 Nicklaus Gaut: Logan Webb: Man with a plan 11:02 Kevin Goldstein: Welp, down to one monitor…. 11:04 Luke Hooper: uh oh 11:05 Kevin Goldstein: It’s become the Tommy La Stella game 11:05 Gavin: How’s your phone battery, NG? 11:05 Kevin Goldstein: Oh no, just lost a monitor in terms of the TBR/BOS game ended. Monitor is functioning quite well! 11:07 Nicklaus: ‘Whoosh’ on that ‘Wanders’ joke. (it was a good one, too) 11:07 Nicklaus Gaut: I’ve never met another first name Nicklaus. If you’re real, did you Dad really, really, love golf too? 11:08 Nicklaus Gaut: *your dad 11:09 Jackson: If I’m remembering correctly, Logan Webb was reported to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of seam-shifted wake. Do you think that’s playing a role in neutralizing a Dodgers team that usually nukes sinkers? 11:09 Nicklaus Gaut: One of my favorite topics..He has pretty big axis deviations on his sinker and change. 11:09 The 6ix: Anyone else genuinely shocked by TB having a bad pitching day? 11:09 Kevin Goldstein: In happens . . . they allowed 8+ runs 23 times this year. 11:10 Nicklaus Gaut: 11:10 Gavin: What are you chat setups like? Office with games on monitors? Laptop in the living room? Smart phone? 11:10 Kevin Goldstein: I’m at my desk, so my wife can watch TV while I do this. I have a MacBook, second monitor, iPad. 11:11 Kevin Goldstein: Nicklaus, did you answer the first name question? 11:11 Luke Hooper: I’ve got a TV in my office with the game on. My computer monitor is half chat, half random other page. Dog to my right, sound asleep. 11:11 Kevin Goldstein: Well, that Seager double makes things mildly interesting. 11:12 Nicklaus Gaut: TV in my office. Bunch of stuff on two monitors. 11:12 Luke Hooper: That ball was ripped 11:13 Luke Hooper: 111 EV 11:13 Nicklaus Gaut: game high 11:13 Nicklaus Gaut: People are looking ugly against the change 11:13 Kevin Goldstein: Logan Webb is unreal tonight 11:14 Belli Flop: Just…tip of the cap to Webb from this Dodger fan 11:14 Nicklaus Gaut: woof. so good. 11:14 Jackson: Filthy 11:14 Nicklaus Gaut: four changeups…no chances. 11:16 Scuffy mcgee: Webb wasn’t really any kind of prospect right? 11:16 Nicklaus Gaut: mostly middling. Luke wrote an excellent article on his evolution. 11:16 Nicklaus Gaut: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/logan-webb-is-sinking-his-way-to-success/ 11:16 Luke Hooper: Hey! Thanks! 11:16 David (formerly Sonoma State): Make that two Dodger fans just dumbfounded with how good Webb’s been tonight. 11:17 Mark Walter: 9 pitches to Trea Turner and only 2 have been in the zone 11:18 Belli Flop: This Kershaw/Hankook ad makes me quite sad 11:18 Nicklaus Gaut: The one where Kershaw needs approximately 14 vehicles to catch up to his pitch that just got smashed makes me the saddest. 11:18 Jerry Seinfeld: What’s THE DEAL with Logan Webb? 11:19 Fire Ken Tremendous: When did the third time through the lineup become a concern? There used to be so many more complete games but all those starters weren’t getting blown up late in games 11:19 Kevin Goldstein: The numbers existed then too, and they were similar. 11:20 David (formerly Sonoma State): Where does Kershaw end up next year? 11:20 Kevin Goldstein: Hard to see anywhere but LA…. 11:20 Kevin Goldstein: Ok, reposting setup, I had some DMs and iMessages visible before…. 11:21 Alf: Everyone is dealing until they’re not … Right? Please give me some hope 11:21 Kevin Goldstein: It’s just 2-0, things can change VERY quickly. 11:22 Luke Hooper: This game is FAR from over. 11:22 Josh Maxson: Re: 3rd time through the order. Is there a sort of general drop off in effectiveness, or do some pitchers demonstrate a stronger ability to “stay elusive” or effective through more rotations of the order? 11:22 Kevin Goldstein: It’s pretty clear that stuff drops, and it’s pretty clear that multiple looks help hitters. 11:22 dagg.nah.bbit: KG… Not pictured is the Brugal you’re drinking tonight. lol 11:22 Kevin Goldstein: Haven’t had it since March of 2020 in the DR! 11:23 David (formerly Sonoma State): Where does Scherzer end up next year? 11:23 Nicklaus Gaut: LA 11:23 Kevin Goldstein: I’d call them the favorite. Not an overwhelming one, but the favorite. 11:24 Jeremy: Here in Canada we get the same broadcast with different ads. No Kershaw in the cutesy Lego ad. 11:24 Kevin Goldstein: So just Molson’s, back bacon and tukes? 11:24 Alf: How are questions selected when multiple FG people are chatting? Does just one of you have the reigns, or can you all independently select questions to show? 11:24 Kevin Goldstein: We all have access to the queue. 11:25 The 6ix: How much do players talk to each other about their experiences with different teams and does that factor at all in a free agent’s decision? 11:25 Kevin Goldstein: They absolutely call ex-teammates, mostly to ask about the manager. 11:25 Lzfreak: Andrew Bailey is the Giants pitching coach? Wow I feel old 11:25 Luke Hooper: Hanger from Webb there. Haven’t been many of those. 11:26 Kevin Goldstein: Will Smith is on second base with one out in the seventh. Will the Dodgers score? Yes (50.0% | 27 votes) No (50.0% | 27 votes) Total Votes: 54 11:26 Nicklaus Gaut: and another 11:26 Luke Hooper: yea apparently I was predicting the next pitch too 11:27 Nicklaus Gaut: maybe just keep throwing changes until someone actually hits it? 11:28 Rain: It’s interesting to see a game where starters are going so long given the propensity of quick hooks this whole postseason 11:28 Kevin Goldstein: We’ve had some guys go deep (McCullers, Morton, etc.). I wrote today that Cora’s early pulls are by design. 11:29 Andy: That’s at least the second time Beaty has called for time. Trying to beak up Webb’s timing 11:29 Kevin Goldstein: Didn’t work. 11:29 Nicklaus Gaut: oh baby 11:29 Nicklaus Gaut: confidence to go back to the slider after two hangers. love it. 11:29 Randy: Both healthy, Edwin Rios or Beaty? 11:29 Kevin Goldstein: As the young kids might say, I am an Edwin Rios-stan. 11:30 Nicklaus Gaut: That makes me feel good. Really like him. 11:30 Ryan: Honestly, the changeup is coming off as hostile at this point. 11:30 Fire Ken Tremendous: How do you get to be the K fan at a game? Is that seat advertised? 11:30 Kevin Goldstein: I feel like I have answers to most how-the-sausages-are-made questions. I do not have an answer to this question. 11:31 Lzfreak: Any time they show Bellinger’s numbers from 2021 I just grimace 11:31 Kevin Goldstein: I’m sure he does as well. 11:31 Nicklaus Gaut: Eat those changes. Just eat them. 11:32 Kevin Goldstein: Webb due up fourth this inning…. 11:32 Luke Hooper: 9 whiffs on 30 changeups 11:32 Kevin Goldstein: 30! 11:33 Nicklaus Gaut: Right? 30 CH, 22 SL, 20 SI 11:33 Crucial baseball analysis: Logan Webb is having a good game 11:33 Kevin Goldstein: Makes me wonder what the most CH in a game this year is. 11:34 Nicklaus Gaut: To Search! 11:34 Phil: I know at Fenway the K-Men are an actual club. Started out informal and eventually they made a deal with the team as part of a charitable thing. 11:34 Kevin Goldstein: Our readers remain the best. 11:35 Nicklaus Gaut: 48 – Luke Weaver 11:35 Kevin Goldstein: This is clearly Walker’s last inning. 11:35 Kevin Goldstein: 48! 11:35 Nicklaus Gaut: Most of the top-10 is just Lucas Giolito 11:35 Kevin Goldstein: I saw a minor league kid throw 50-something once. 11:35 Nicklaus Gaut: nuts 11:36 Crucial baseball analysis: If the Giants can keep this up, they have a good chance of winning this game 11:36 Belli Flop: 50?! 11:36 Kevin Goldstein: Kris Bryant having fun. Good shot he stays a Giant. 11:36 Kevin Goldstein: Anyway, I wrote about the guy who threw all the changeups in a minor league game. 11:37 Luke Hooper: I was like “where did I hear that story before?” 11:37 Kevin Goldstein: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/remembering-a-near-no-hitter-17-years-late… 11:37 Mark Walter: the last three HR’s buehler’s given up in 3 ball counts were tonight, tonight, and 2018 11:37 Kevin Goldstein: Remarkable. 11:37 Nicklaus Gaut: wow 11:37 Scuffy mcgee: I will say it again. Bryant should be hitting where Flores is 11:37 Kevin Goldstein: Batting orders really don’t matter that much. 11:38 Kevin Goldstein: Bryant playing for the team he grew up waiting for, wanted to get to FA so he could go to the West Coast, just all lining up. 11:38 Kevin Goldstein: It’s not the best Buehler start, but he was pretty damn good. Webb was just way better…. 11:41 Changeups?: Has Webb been keeping the change in his back pocket all season? I don’t think he’s ever featured it this heavily… 11:41 Nicklaus Gaut: He’s averaged 23.6% with the changeup this season but has gone really heavy in a few starts. The highest per start were 35 (36%), 33 (35.5%), and 31 (41.9%) 11:41 Kevin Goldstein: Pretty great note from Stephanie Apstein of SI (former podcast co-host!): There has only been one walk in this game (Tommy La Stella, to lead off the bottom of the first) 11:41 Luke Hooper: Is that why the game feels like it’s flying? 11:41 Kevin Goldstein: The La Stella walk in the bottom of the first is the only walk of the game. (I thought it would paste better) 11:41 dagg.nah.bbit: Nice story about Bondurant… truly a reminder of how success in baseball is not granted. 11:42 Kevin Goldstein: It was really fun to talk to him about it. I looked him up on Linkedin, which is the first time I’ve used that site for anything productive. 11:43 Kevin Goldstein: Money is nearly everything, and taxes are a big part of that. When I worked for the Astros, no state tax played a big role. Location matters, but often it’s really spring training location that matters more. 11:43 Rog: Attaboy KB. Like that guy. Give me some percentages though. Money, location (taxes), etc. How do you think players weigh them when signing a contract? 11:43 Kevin Goldstein: (reverse q and a there) 11:43 Marqueef Grissom: Does Kapler keep Webb in now? 11:43 Nicklaus Gaut: I’ll be really upset if he doesn’t. 11:43 Nicklaus Gaut: But he could come up this inning. 11:43 Kevin Goldstein: Holy crap, Webb is hitting. 11:43 Kevin Goldstein: I mean, he’s fine! 11:44 David (formerly Sonoma State): Why does spring training location matter more? 11:44 Belli Flop: Mother*swearword* 11:44 Kevin Goldstein: Families always go, so it’s six weeks in one spot. Also a LOT of players live in Arizona or Florida…. 11:44 A.J. Putzinski: Seager’s probably gone after this year in LA, right? Feels like a buyer’s market for SS this offseason, probably the best fit in STL, yeah? 11:44 Nicklaus Gaut: St. Louis already has Paul DeJong 11:45 Kevin Goldstein: You forgot Sosa! 11:45 Kevin Goldstein: Who I like! 11:45 Nicklaus Gaut: You’re right! 11:45 Nicklaus Gaut: He’s grown on me. 11:45 A.J. Putzinski: yeah, but…[gestures vaguely] 11:45 Mark Walter: Any chance Seager ends up at 3B for someone next year? 11:45 Kevin Goldstein: I think IF he was going to change positions, 2B would be better fit, but he’s going to want to be paid as a SS. 11:46 Kevin Goldstein: Looked it up, Boras is the agent. 11:46 Sliver57: Bryant had a quiet September, hit his way to the 6-hole. Looking better lately, huh? 11:46 Rog: Are more at bats over time from batting higher up in the order not a concern? 11:47 Luke Hooper: I think the Giants really liked the Flores/Buehler matchup. 11:47 A.J. Putzinski: big crop of SS though this offseason with not a lot of teams with big needs there. seems like a decent time to buy IMO 11:47 Nicklaus Gaut: It is a really nice group. 11:48 Kevin Goldstein: I think Correa will be everyone’s No. 1 target. 11:49 Kevin Goldstein: Webb is at 81 pitches with 1 out in the 8th and a 1-2 count to Pollock. Will he get a Maddux Yup (30.0% | 18 votes) Nope (70.0% | 42 votes) Total Votes: 60 11:50 The 6ix: A lot a great things said about Semien as a real leader and professional in Toronto. 11:50 Kevin Goldstein: He’s a phenomenal presence . 11:50 Nicklaus Gaut: I’m really interested to see where Semien goes/what he gets. 11:51 Kevin Goldstein: Great fit for both of these teams….. 11:51 Kevin Goldstein: And he’s a Bay Area guy. 11:52 Nicklaus Gaut: Good call. And if he came back he could rub it in Oakland’s face that much more. 11:52 Feel the Hearn: Will they really let him go 9? 11:52 Kevin Goldstein: He’s at 85, I see no reason not so at this point. 11:53 Nicklaus Gaut: All of the changes. 11:53 Kevin Goldstein: Pitch counts also aren’t everything. Big difference between a relaxed 88 pitches with no real stress and 88 over five with all sorts of traffic. 11:53 Nicklaus Gaut: And this has been relaxing 11:54 Kevin Goldstein: No inning more than 14 also a huge factor. 11:55 Cueto’s Shimmy: Crawford’s defense at this age must be a rarity right? Is this an exceptional productive SS season relative to age? 11:55 Kevin Goldstein: He’s more of a 60 SS than the seventy he used to be, but yes, the defense has aged remarkably well in a very rare way. 11:55 Kevin Goldstein: Wow, surprised at the pull. Betts hit a laser, but that’s gonna happen. 11:55 Nicklaus Gaut: 36 changeups is season high 11:55 Kevin Goldstein: Should Webb have been pulled here? Yes (56.7% | 38 votes) No (43.2% | 29 votes) Total Votes: 67 11:56 hilbillyjoel: Hey… anyone want to over-analyze a pitching change? 11:56 Lzfreak: This is the right call but it sucks 11:56 Nicklaus Gaut: Really thought they’d leave him in 11:56 Jackson: Hell of a night from Webb 11:56 A.J. Putzinski: Enjoying the podcast btw. Rowley is a treat everytime I hear her. We need more David Roth though. 11:56 Kevin Goldstein: David will be back, he’s a busy man, but I agree he is wonderful. For him to sit in the co-host chair for episode number one absolutely made my week. Also, thanks for listening! The show has been really fun this year. 11:57 Kevin Goldstein: Pretty damn even on the pull/no pull poll. #PullNoPullPoll 11:57 Hugh Duffy: I’m totally a romantic about these things, but there’s a 3 run lead, and only 4 outs left to go. Bank the success, get a fresh arm to get the few outs left. 11:58 Luke Hooper: Seager does have the hardest hit of the night off Webb 11:59 Ryan: Trevor May tweeted that he wore a heart rate monitor during 45 appearances this year. His average max HR was 192. What do you think Webb’s max is for tonight? 11:59 Nicklaus Gaut: 12 11:59 Lzfreak: The Rogers twins are an absolute joy 11:59 Jackson: Unique pitchers are fun #analysis 12:02 Guest: The fact that there are a pair of giant twin pitchers and they play for the Giants and Twins is beautiful 12:02 Kevin Goldstein: Alex Vesia: 17th round pick from Cal State: East Bay and the only alumni of that school to reach the bigs. 12:03 Kevin Goldstein: Happy Saturday, East Coast folks. 12:03 Kevin Goldstein: Is it Saturday where you are? Yes (38.5% | 22 votes) No (61.4% | 35 votes) Total Votes: 57 12:04 Bullpen fan: Dodgers closer next year is Jansen, Treinen, or someone else? 12:04 Kevin Goldstein: Is the Dodgers closer next year . . . ? Jansen (30.7% | 16 votes) Treinen (55.7% | 29 votes) Someone else (13.4% | 7 votes) Total Votes: 52 12:05 The 6ix: Bad mustache though… 12:05 Nicklaus Gaut: No such thing. 12:06 Gavin: Will KG defer to polls for all remaining questions in the chat? 12:06 Kevin Goldstein: Will I defer to polls for all remaining questions tonight? Yes (70.2% | 26 votes) No (29.7% | 11 votes) Total Votes: 37 12:06 Jackson: Relief pitcher moustaches are a treasure 12:07 Nicklaus Gaut: If they were any more so, Nicolas Cage would be trying to find them. 12:07 Kevin Goldstein: I feel like even as we got to the playoffs, people were waiting for the other shoe to drop for the Giants. 12:07 Nicklaus Gaut: And it just won’t. 12:08 Gavin: Is that only because it used to be Cal State Hayward? 12:08 Kevin Goldstein: Crap. Good to have a native in the chat. School of Joe Morgan! 12:08 Lzfreak: Yeah I was a shoe drop waiter 12:08 Gronch: Crawford should get MVP votes 12:09 Kevin Goldstein: He will. 12:09 Luke Hooper: He’ll probably finish top 5. 12:09 I Drink Dodgers Tears: How fun is this game?! 12:09 Kevin Goldstein: Honestly, it was more fun at 2-0 when a bloop and a blast could tie it….. 12:10 Luke Hooper: yea the middle innings were some of the best we’ve had from the playoffs so far. 12:10 weezy: are the giants… good? 12:10 Kevin Goldstein: I have no idea what the counter argument would be at this point. 12:11 Kevin Goldstein: Time for the Camilo Doval experience. No biggie, just 99 with a plus-plus 85-88 mph slider. 12:12 Mike: I enjoy them, but why do you think the Giants/Rays brand of ball seems boring to so many? 12:12 Kevin Goldstein: I don’t think the Giants and Rays are really that similar…. 12:12 Scuffy mcgee: As long as he doesn’t throw changeups… 12:12 Kevin Goldstein: He hasn’t all year! 12:13 NickG: Doval is super fun to watch pitch, for those who haven’t. 12:13 Kevin Goldstein: Also has excellent hair. 12:13 Clueless: Do you think the giants are onto something by having lots of SPs that throw change ups (webb, gausman, desclafani, wood) 12:13 Luke Hooper: I’m a big fan of changeups, especially as hitters are constantly needing to gear up for more and more velo. 12:14 Gavin: Nobody saw 107 wins coming, but we’re any of you relatively bullish on SF at the start of the year? Or are we all in the same boat here? 12:14 Nicklaus Gaut: I was really in on Gausman…and that was about it. 12:14 Kevin Goldstein: I was waiting for the shoe to drop all year, but I’m done with that. 12:15 Kevin Goldstein: Doval from a town in the DR called Yamasa. Thanks to my previous life, I can say I’ve been there! 12:15 Nicklaus Gaut: can o’ corn 12:16 Kevin Goldstein: Mr. Doval seems quite excited. 12:17 Kevin Goldstein: He’s just absolutely chucking it. Just aiming for the box. No need to locate, and not even trying. 12:17 Kevin Goldstein: Ball game. Thanks so much to everyone for joining us! We’ll have more of these next week! 12:17 The 6ix: Thanks guys. 12:17 Nicklaus Gaut: Thank you! 12:17 Lzfreak: This is gonna be a fun series 12:17 Josh Maxson: Thanks! 12:17 Luke Hooper: Yea, fun night! good game! Cheers everyone! 12:17 Nicklaus Gaut: You’re welcome 12:17 Jackson: Thank you, these chats are a ton of fun 12:18 Nicklaus Gaut: Great game! 12:18 Greg: Thanks guys! What a short game… 12:18 David (formerly Sonoma State): These chats are so fun. Thanks everyone. 12:18 Scuffy mcgee: Gj sirs 12:18 Fire Ken Tremendous: A sub 3 hour playoff game! 12:18 Nicklaus Gaut: A little different than the chat for STL/LAD 12:18 Nicklaus Gaut: Thanks again, everyone!