FanGraphs Power Rankings: April 25-May 1

Another week of the 2022 season is in the books and there’s been some significant movement in the power rankings. We’re still at the point where a hot or cold week can really change the outlook for a team, but we’re also starting to see some clubs separate themselves from the pack — for good or for ill.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on their expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking that is then presented in tiers below.

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Yankees 16-6 0 125 77 76 -2 163 95.0%
Dodgers 14-7 -2 110 69 74 -2 145 94.6%
Mets 16-7 0 123 73 98 -1 159 86.5%

It’s a good time to be a baseball fan in New York. Both the Yankees and Mets have been playing fantastic baseball to start the season and both teams lead their respective divisions after a month of play. The Yanks rattled off a nine-game win streak with sweeps of the Guardians, Orioles, and the Royals. It took a little while for their bats to wake up earlier in the season, but they scored 7.4 runs per game during this stretch, including four games with double digit run totals. Unsurprisingly, it’s been their sluggers who have led the way. Anthony Rizzo’s nine home runs lead all of baseball, with a three dinger day on Tuesday and another on Friday padding his total. Not to be outdone, Aaron Judge blasted five homers last week, including two on Sunday.

The Mets are the only team in the majors to have won every single series they’ve played so far; they took two of three from both the Cardinals and the Phillies last week. Tylor Megill and four relievers combined for the first no-hitter of the 2022 season on Friday, though some might quibble over whether a combined no-no has the same shine as a solo effort. Their lineup looks as deep and potent as expected after all their offseason additions, and their starting rotation has been among the best in the majors even without Jacob deGrom. They’ve got a tough slate of games this week, with four at home against the Braves and four more in Philadelphia.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Angels 15-8 1 128 89 110 -2 134 71.5%
Padres 15-8 1 110 88 118 10 134 81.9%
Giants 14-8 -1 107 85 78 0 132 65.0%

After slipping a bit against the Orioles last weekend, the Angels swept the Guardians in four games and took two of three against the White Sox over the weekend. One of the guys leading the charge? Taylor Ward (of course). He collected 13 hits last week, including four home runs, and drove in 11. His slash line is all the way up to .400/.507/.764 (271 wRC+). Having a competent supporting cast for their star trio of Mike Trout (who is looking as dangerous as ever), Shohei Ohtani, and Anthony Rendon is a nice luxury to have.

The Giants have been beset by injuries and absences, with an outbreak of COVID running through their clubhouse. They’ve had to cobble together lineups with a host of minor league call-ups. They just lost a three-game series against the Nationals at home over the weekend during which they allowed 28 runs. This week, they’ll head to Los Angeles in their first meeting with the Dodgers this season. With rosters contracting today, the Giants are in a precarious position until some of their regulars return from the IL.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Brewers 15-8 1 92 76 87 2 130 87.0%
Marlins 12-9 1 111 91 102 3 142 29.5%
Blue Jays 15-8 3 108 86 96 3 133 96.1%
Rays 12-10 1 115 98 107 4 141 49.7%

Before they were shutout by the Cubs on Sunday, the Brewers had put together a five-game win streak that pushed them to the top of the NL Central standings. Apparently, playing the Pirates and Cubs was all they needed to get their slumbering offense to wake up. Prior to this week, they had scored 3.4 runs per game and their wRC+ sat at just 78; they scored 40 runs in seven games last week and pushed their wRC+ up to 92. And they’ll be welcoming Luis Urías back from the IL soon, too.

Speaking of teams who have been offensively challenged in recent seasons, the Marlins lineup has been a surprising strength early this year. The man driving their early success has been Jazz Chisholm Jr. He’s currently hitting .310/.354/.672 on the season with the seventh highest ISO in baseball. And after a slow start with his new team, Jorge Soler also appears to be heating up; he blasted two 450 foot home runs over the weekend. Before losing to the Mariners on Sunday afternoon, Miami had strung together a seven-game win streak.

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Mariners 12-10 -1 122 110 93 -2 118 33.2%
Twins 13-9 -1 109 77 103 -3 112 60.3%
Cardinals 12-9 -1 101 92 93 2 112 38.7%
Guardians 10-12 -2 114 106 100 1 126 17.3%
Phillies 11-12 -1 109 99 100 1 117 39.6%
Astros 11-11 1 98 109 92 10 115 82.7%
Braves 10-13 0 103 113 88 0 98 71.8%

The Twins continued to rocket up the standings with a hot streak of their own. They’ve won nine of their last 10, including two walk-off wins and one of the most bizarre endings to a game you’ll ever see. Byron Buxton has continued to crush everything in sight — his 469 foot blast earned Minnesota the first of those two walk-offs last Sunday — and the team is getting solid contributions up and down the lineup. After a bit of a clunker on Opening Day, Joe Ryan has been lights out, winning his last three starts while allowing just a single run during this stretch. With the White Sox really struggling in the early going, the Twins have raced out to be the early division favorites.

After Alec Bohm told us that “I f—ing hate this place” on April 11 (Bohm apologized and was met with a standing ovation the next night), the Phillies lost nine of their next 12 games. They managed to get their season back on track with a four-game sweep of the Rockies last week before running into the Mets over the weekend. Before allowing 10 runs to score on Sunday night, they had allowed fewer than five runs in eight of their last nine games. And although Bryce Harper has been relegated to DH duty due to an injured throwing elbow, the Phillies haven’t suffered many of the same defensive lapses that led to Bohm’s original frustration all those weeks ago.

The Braves welcomed back superstar outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr. on Thursday, though he wasn’t able to turn their mediocre start around on his own. They won their first series of the season against the Cubs but traveled to Texas and dropped two of three to the Rangers over the weekend. Atlanta endured a similarly slow start last year before really turning things on later in the summer. Getting Acuña back is a big deal and there are other positive signs on the roster, including the big breakout of Kyle Wright. They haven’t put all the pieces together just yet, but they’ve got too much talent to wallow around .500 for long.

Tier 5 – Surprising Starts
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Rockies 13-9 3 110 99 105 -11 93 1.4%
Cubs 9-13 -2 108 125 91 1 97 3.2%
Athletics 10-12 -1 88 109 93 2 90 1.0%

These three teams feel impossible to evaluate right now. Each of them racked up impressive wins to start the season, outperforming their low expectations, and each of them has posted really mixed results since. The Cubs have won just three of their last 12 games and were just outscored 20-4 in Milwaukee over the weekend. The Rockies were swept in Philadelphia in four games but then turned around and swept the hapless Reds at home, scoring 24 runs in three games. The A’s were just swept at home by the Guardians (who were themselves coming off a four-game sweep at the hands of the Angels) over the weekend. These clubs will probably filter their way down the rankings as the season goes on, but they’ve played well enough to separate themselves from the rest of the teams at the bottom so far.

Tier 6 – High Hopes, Early Disappointments
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Red Sox 9-14 -1 79 96 102 -2 56 35.7%
White Sox 8-13 1 86 104 101 -11 48 47.6%

This wasn’t the start the Red Sox envisioned for their season. They haven’t won a series since taking two of three from the Tigers during the first week of play and just lost back-to-back series against the Blue Jays and Orioles. Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers are hitting just fine, but newcomer Trevor Story is really struggling and the bottom third of their order is a complete black hole right now. They currently have the third worst offense in the majors and have scored just 3.5 runs per game, though it’s hard to believe they’ll stay this bad with all the talent on their roster.

Meanwhile, things haven’t gotten much better for the White Sox after losing four of six last week, though they did end their streak of games with an error at nine. Like Boston, their offense has been slow to come alive this season. Andrew Vaughn’s breakout in his second season has been encouraging and Yoán Moncada should be returning from his spring injury soon, so there’s hope on the horizon there. But it’s been their pitching staff that’s actually the biggest concern. After leading the American League with the best starting rotation and one of the best bullpens last year, they’ve taken a big step back in 2022. Missing Lance Lynn hurts and Dallas Keuchel looks far too hittable, but there really isn’t one glaring issue to point to.

Tier 7 – On the Fence
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Diamondbacks 10-13 1 76 85 122 3 66 0.4%
Tigers 7-14 -1 91 126 67 -4 82 4.6%
Rangers 8-14 -2 91 118 122 -3 49 1.8%
Orioles 8-14 0 87 107 97 -7 62 0.0%
Royals 7-13 1 80 115 112 5 67 3.5%
Pirates 9-13 2 86 141 112 -9 23 0.2%

The Diamondbacks started the season with just three wins in their first 11 games, leading some to start to wonder if their roster really was as bad as their 52-110 record indicated last year. They’ve come alive a bit since, with an impressive series win against the Dodgers and a four-game split against the Cardinals last week. They’ve had plenty of trouble scoring runs consistently, so it’s been their pitching staff that’s carried them to their recent success. Merrill Kelly has been extremely impressive with a bit of extra velocity on his fastball, Zac Gallen has been healthy and productive, and even Madison Bumgarner has been getting positive results.

Tier 8 – Hope Deferred
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Nationals 8-16 -1 88 129 106 -6 42 0.1%
Reds 3-19 -2 67 154 109 -7 14 0.2%

When the Nationals scored 14 runs on Friday in San Francisco, it broke a stretch of play where they hadn’t scored more than three runs in nine straight games. They dropped another 11 on the Giants on Sunday for good measure. Their biggest problem is a pitching staff that has been cobbled together with whatever spare parts they could find in their organization. They’ve allowed the second most runs in the majors, and their starting rotation has been particularly hard hit. Josiah Gray has been the lone bright spot on the pitching side of things.

Lastly, I’ll sum up the state of the Reds with this tweet:

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds Δ
1 Yankees 16-6 0 125 77 76 -2 163 95.0% 2
2 Dodgers 14-7 -2 110 69 74 -2 145 94.6% -1
3 Mets 16-7 0 123 73 98 -1 159 86.5% -1
4 Angels 15-8 1 128 89 110 -2 134 71.5% 7
5 Padres 15-8 1 110 88 118 10 134 81.9% 7
6 Giants 14-8 -1 107 85 78 0 132 65.0% -2
7 Brewers 15-8 1 92 76 87 2 130 87.0% 7
8 Marlins 12-9 1 111 91 102 3 142 29.5% 1
9 Blue Jays 15-8 3 108 86 96 3 133 96.1% -1
10 Rays 12-10 1 115 98 107 4 141 49.7% -3
11 Mariners 12-10 -1 122 110 93 -2 118 33.2% -5
12 Twins 13-9 -1 109 77 103 -3 112 60.3% 7
13 Cardinals 12-9 -1 101 92 93 2 112 38.7% -8
14 Guardians 10-12 -2 114 106 100 1 126 17.3% -1
15 Phillies 11-12 -1 109 99 100 1 117 39.6% 6
16 Astros 11-11 1 98 109 92 10 115 82.7% 1
17 Rockies 13-9 3 110 99 105 -11 93 1.4% -2
18 Braves 10-13 0 103 113 88 0 98 71.8% 0
19 Cubs 9-13 -2 108 125 91 1 97 3.2% -9
20 Athletics 10-12 -1 88 109 93 2 90 1.0% -4
21 Diamondbacks 10-13 1 76 85 122 3 66 0.4% 4
22 Red Sox 9-14 -1 79 96 102 -2 56 35.7% 0
23 Tigers 7-14 -1 91 126 67 -4 82 4.6% -3
24 Rangers 8-14 -2 91 118 122 -3 49 1.8% 4
25 Orioles 8-14 0 87 107 97 -7 62 0.0% -1
26 Royals 7-13 1 80 115 112 5 67 3.5% 1
27 White Sox 8-13 1 86 104 101 -11 48 47.6% -1
28 Pirates 9-13 2 86 141 112 -9 23 0.2% -5
29 Nationals 8-16 -1 88 129 106 -6 42 0.1% 0
30 Reds 3-19 -2 67 154 109 -7 14 0.2% 0





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

42 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
rhswanzey
1 year ago

The Reds are given awfully generous playoff odds

raregokusmember
1 year ago
Reply to  rhswanzey

The NL Central is just hilariously bad.

Lanidrac
1 year ago
Reply to  raregokus

The Brewers and Cardinals are still quite good.

popnlock
1 year ago
Reply to  raregokus

wut? The Brewers are probably a top 5 team and the Cards are a top 10.

Roger21
1 year ago
Reply to  rhswanzey

“Awfully” is obviously the most appropriate adverb to use in any context when discussing the Reds.

Jason Bmember
1 year ago
Reply to  rhswanzey

They see the 88 Orioles who started 0-21 and went 1-22 in April and think, “Pfft, we’re WAY better than those losers…”

gettwobrute79member
1 year ago
Reply to  rhswanzey

I’ll put 20 against a 10 they beat out my Bucs.

Schide
1 year ago
Reply to  gettwobrute79

I’m not taking that bet