FanGraphs Power Rankings: July 24–30

The trade deadline is just 24 hours away, but there’s been plenty of action already. Let’s check in on the league ahead of the final stretch.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

A week after winning two of three from the Brewers in Milwaukee, the Braves swept them in Atlanta over the weekend. With the entire roster firing on all cylinders, any additions they make will likely be around the margins — something they’ve already begun doing by adding some depth to their bullpen and infield via Pierce Johnson and Nicky Lopez. Their only concern now is ensuring they aren’t peaking early and to get to October healthy.

The Rangers drop into the second tier after a roller coaster of a week. On the field, they lost a hard-fought series against the Astros and were swept by the Padres, leaving them just a single game up in the AL West. With Houston in hot pursuit and the AL playoff picture as crowded as ever, Texas isn’t standing pat, making the biggest splashes so far by landing Max Scherzer on Saturday and then adding Jordan Montgomery on Sunday. With so many injuries in the starting rotation, those two make for welcome additions.

The Dodgers have been busy plugging all the leaks on their roster as injuries have taken a toll on their depth. First, they reunited with Enrique Hernández, then they added Amed Rosario, and finally they shored up their pitching staff with Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly. There’s still a bit of room between them and the rest of the NL West, but their roster desperately needed some help as they head into the dog days of summer, and it looks like they got it.

The Blue Jays survived the gauntlet of Los Angeles teams last week, winning both series against the Dodgers and Angels. They’ll host the Orioles for four games and then travel to Boston in a huge divisional showdown this week. Ahead of those big AL East matchups, they added Jordan Hicks from the Cardinals over the weekend to help cover for the loss of Jordan Romano to a back injury. They’ll also get Hyun Jin Ryu back from his Tommy John rehab this week, which should provide some additional depth for their pitching staff.

The Cubs have had a weird season. They were 10 games under .500 as recently as June 8 but have boasted a positive run differential nearly the entire season. Their loss to the Cardinals on Sunday snapped an eight-game win streak that pushed their record above .500 for the first time since early May. Just a few weeks ago, there were real questions about whether or not this team was getting ready to sell; now they’re just 3.5 games out of a playoff spot and four games back in their division. They’ve got a pretty tough schedule on the docket this week: a four-game set against the Reds followed by a series against the Braves. If they can survive this challenge, they’ll be in good position to make a run at the postseason this summer.

The Orioles are going to be one of the most fascinating teams to watch at the trade deadline. They’re leading the American League, but their run differential doesn’t exactly support the number of wins they’ve banked so far. You can thank their tough-as-nails bullpen for a lot of that overperformance. Still, they need some additional depth for their young pitching staff, and they have a ton of young bats to spare. They’ll have to walk the tightrope between trying to go for it this year and maintaining their focus on long-term success.

The flood gates opened up as soon as the Angels took Shohei Ohtani off the market, both for their own roster and the rest of baseball. They made their intentions quite clear when they acquired Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo López from the White Sox on Wednesday and followed that up with another trade to get C.J. Cron and Randal Grichuk on Sunday. They’ve got a gauntlet of tough matchups ahead of them — the Braves, Mariners, Giants, Astros, Rangers, Rays, and Reds all in a row — and just lost Taylor Ward after he was hit in the face with a fastball on Saturday. It won’t be easy, but they’re giving it their best shot.

The Twins started last week with a walk-off win against the Mariners, pushing their record up to six games over .500, the best it’s been this season. They lost all five games after that and now sit just half a game ahead of the Guardians in the AL Central. They’ve been quiet on the trade market, too, making only a minor reliever swap with the Marlins. Their starting rotation has been as good as anyone else’s, but they need a bit more consistency on offense if they want to run away with the division.

It shouldn’t be a surprise, but the Brewers are still suffering from the same roster imbalance they’ve been dealing with for the last half-decade: a solid pitching staff that’s being undermined by an anemic offense. Last week, they traded for Carlos Santana to try to infuse their lineup with a little more consistency.

The Marlins are suffering from the opposite problem as the Cubs: a good record that’s undermined by a pretty terrible run differential. They’re 23–9 in one-run games and have excelled when the game is on the line, though their relief corps has been stretched thin recently. They leaned into that team identity by adding to their bullpen with David Robertson and Jorge López last week. They desperately need some additions to their lineup, though, even with Jazz Chisholm Jr. close to returning from an oblique injury.

The Yankees activated Aaron Judge off the IL on Friday, a welcome return after he missed nearly two months with a toe injury, but there are plenty of other issues on the Yankees’ roster that won’t be addressed by his presence alone. New York went 19–23 without Judge and currently sits on the outside looking in in the AL Wild Card race. Having lost a crucial three-game series to the Orioles over the weekend, things don’t get any easier with the Rays and Astros on the schedule this week.

Both the Mets and Cardinals started to sell over the weekend, completing two trades each, with the Scherzer swap the biggest of the bunch. It’s a pragmatic move for both clubs after rough seasons all around. Neither team is finished trading, either; they’ll both be busy as the trade deadline approaches. Then comes the hard work of figuring out what their near-term future looks like.

Like the Cardinals and Mets, the White Sox are tearing things down, sending out five pitchers in three different deals last week. They also aren’t done yet, with plenty of players on the block as they try to reset their roster after two disappointing and frustrating seasons. That likely includes Tim Anderson, who hit his first home run of the season over the weekend.

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