FanGraphs Power Rankings: July 31–August 6

As we head into the dog days of August, the playoff picture in the National League continues to be pretty murky. Meanwhile, in the American League, the best teams continue to separate themselves from the chaff.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

After going all-in on this season last weekend with their acquisitions of Max Scherzer and Jordan Montgomery, the Rangers swept through last week with six straight wins. That’s given them a little bit of breathing room in the AL West. Unfortunately, their All-Star third baseman Josh Jung fractured his thumb on Sunday, potentially ending his season early. He’ll join Jonah Heim on the IL; suddenly, the best offense in the AL has suddenly sprung a few leaks.

The Orioles have been one of the hardest teams for these rankings to peg all year long. They’re clearly benefiting from tons of good luck; on a surface level, they’re out performing their run differential by seven games, and even when you dig a little deeper, they’re beating their base runs record by nine games. They weren’t particularly active at the trade deadline, adding Jack Flaherty to their rotation, and he threw one of his best starts of the year in his first outing for Baltimore with his highest average fastball velocity of the year. Despite all that consternation about how they “should” be performing, they keep racking up the wins; they won three of four in Toronto and then swept the Mets last week.

The Mariners arguably made their 2023 roster worse at the trade deadline in an effort to find some additional depth for the future. Predictably, they’re also playing their best baseball of the season right now; since July 1, they’re 22–10, the second best mark in baseball during this stretch. They’ve won five series in a row, capped by a four-game sweep of the Angels over the weekend. They’ve also leapfrogged three teams in the AL Wild Card race and are sitting 2.5 games behind the Blue Jays.

The Cubs continue to climb up the standings with five wins in seven games last week including series wins against the Reds and Braves. Their offense has been carrying them through this hot streak, scoring 60 runs last week alone, and their big trade deadline acquisition, Jeimer Candelario, has been on fire since joining the team, collecting 12 hits in six games with the Cubs. They’ve pushed their run differential up to plus-75, third best in the NL and are now tied with Cincinnati in the Wild Card race.

After the Rangers acquired Scherzer and Montgomery ahead of the trade deadline, the Astros responded by going out and reuniting with Justin Verlander to solidify a Houston rotation that has been wracked by injuries. Discontent to be overshadowed, Framber Valdez spun a brilliant no-hitter on the same day they added the future Hall of Famer. A reinforced Houston roster and a red-hot Mariners club should make the race for the AL West particularly spicy as the season winds down.

The Twins stood pat at the trade deadline, content to ride out the season with the talent they had already compiled on their roster. And since every other AL Central team acted as sellers, Minnesota actually improved its outlook by simply doing nothing. The team bounced back from a rough sweep by the Royals a couple of weekends ago by winning two of three from the Cardinals and sweeping the Diamondbacks last week. And because the Guardians have crashed down the standings, the Twins now have a commanding 4.5-game lead in their division.

The Padres have slowly started to climb back into the NL playoff picture; they’re three games back in the Wild Card race, have a chance to split a four-game series with the Dodgers today, and then have seven games against the Diamondbacks lined up over the next two weeks. They chose to bolster their roster with additional depth at the deadline rather than selling their impending free agents. That’s looking like a savvy move right now with the bubble teams in the NL East and Central all beating each other up.

After going all-in to try to win with Shohei Ohtani on their roster ahead of his impending free agency, the Angels have fallen flat on their face, losing six straight and getting swept by the Mariners in four games over the weekend, dropping their playoff odds to just 2.1%. Mike Trout is on the mend and their schedule seriously lightens up in September, but they’re getting chewed up by a grueling August. Trout’s return in a few weeks might be too little, too late.

The Yankees are a mess right now. They got Aaron Judge back from his toe injury a week and a half ago but were uncharacteristically quiet at the trade deadline despite having plenty of needs up and down their roster. To make matters worse, Domingo Germán was placed on the Restricted List on Wednesday, Anthony Rizzo was placed on the IL on Thursday with lingering post-concussion symptoms, and Carlos Rodón left his start early on Sunday with a hamstring injury. New York is four games over .500 and 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race but is struggling to stay in the playoff picture. The team’s inactivity at the deadline seems to indicate that the towel has been thrown in this season.

The Brewers have collected seven wins against the Reds since the beginning of July and have just 10 wins against all other teams during this stretch. Those victories against their division rival are the reason why they’re still leading the NL Central despite a rough go of things recently. A resurgent Christian Yelich has been leading the offense, and they just welcomed back Brandon Woodruff from his shoulder injury.

The Reds, Marlins, and Diamondbacks all had particularly rough weeks last week, each of them winning just once in seven games. Cincinnati beat the Cubs on Monday and then lost six straight, and is barely holding onto a postseason berth right now. Miami’s only victory came in a dramatic 12-inning walk-off on Wednesday; the team is half a game back in the Wild Card race. Arizona has fallen behind both of those teams at just a game over .500; it’s hard to believe the D-Backs were actually leading the NL West at one point this season.

After their big selloff at the deadline, the Mets have yet to win a game, losing six straight to the Royals and Orioles. Based on the new CBA, the only way they won’t be penalized in next year’s draft is if they secure a protected lottery pick. They also have one of the toughest remaining schedules. There’s a good chance they could wind up in the basement of the NL East in an effort to tank for that protected draft pick.

The Royals put together a nice little seven-game win streak last week, sweeping the Twins and Mets before cooling off against the Phillies over the weekend. Bobby Witt Jr. has been carrying the load, collecting 17 hits during this stretch including four home runs and 16 RBIs. Those homers he hit last week gave him another 20–20 season in his first two years in the majors. The future looks unclear in Kansas City right now, but you can be sure that Witt will play a big part of it whatever it looks like.

In a rebuilding season like the one the A’s are going through, it’s important to celebrate every developmental success, even if the actual victories are few and far between. Luis Medina has had a great month and has seemingly fixed his command issues. Tyler Soderstrom, their top prospect, made his major league debut last month and hit his first home run of his career last week. Good job, guys!

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