FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 13–26

It’s been an eventful two weeks as teams continue to jockey for position heading into midseason.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

Tier 1 – The Best of the Best
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Yankees 53-20 0 117 78 77 3 187 100.0%
Dodgers 45-26 -5 115 78 83 -3 168 97.3%
Astros 45-27 1 113 91 81 15 182 99.8%

In a preview of a potential ALCS matchup, the Yankees and Astros played a highly entertaining four-game series this weekend. Houston would have held the advantage if it weren’t for some dramatic come-from-behind wins on Thursday and Sunday. In between those two walk-off wins, the Astros put together 16.1 consecutive hitless innings, including a combined no-hitter on Saturday. The Yankees actually didn’t lead at any point during any of the four games until the final batters on Thursday and Sunday, with Aaron Judge delivering the decisive hit both times. That four-game set against Houston wrapped up a tough stretch of games that saw the Yankees also face the Rays six times and the Blue Jays three; they exit this gauntlet with a 9-4 record against some of the best the American League has to offer.

As for the Astros, they’ll stick around New York this week to face the Mets in a possible World Series preview. They’ll face the Yankees again on Thursday — an early season reschedule — before hosting the Angels next weekend. They don’t have the gaudy win total the Yankees do, but they showed they were capable of hanging with them these last four games. They’re about to get healthier, too; Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers were just activated off the IL last weekend and Jake Odorizzi should be close behind.

The Dodgers’ up-and-down season continues. A week after Walker Buehler was sidelined with a strained forearm, Mookie Betts hit the IL with a fractured rib last Thursday. Joining Betts are Andrew Heaney and Daniel Hudson, with the former sidelined by a flare up of the shoulder issue that held him out for more than two months and the latter lost for the season to an ACL tear. The Dodgers actually lost their hold on the National League West a day after putting Betts on the IL, but have responded with six wins in eight games since, including a dramatic weekend series against the reigning champion Braves in Atlanta. With the Padres breathing down their necks, reclaiming the division title won’t be an easy task this summer, made all the more difficult by the many absences they’re facing.

Tier 2 – On the Cusp of Greatness
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Padres 45-30 0 100 88 91 22 143 90.3%
Mets 47-27 3 112 96 94 -2 137 97.3%
Red Sox 42-31 -2 108 90 99 7 143 80.6%
Braves 42-32 0 107 92 79 -2 141 88.5%

After their early season struggles, the Red Sox have really come alive in June. They’ve lost just four times this month and are in the midst of a seven-game win streak punctuated by a sweep of the Guardians in Cleveland over the weekend. They’re now 11 games over .500 and have leapfrogged the Rays and Blue Jays in the AL East standings. All those wins are critically important because they’re about to face the most difficult stretch of their season; over their next 33 games, they play a team with a record under .500 just three times — a three-game set against the Cubs this weekend — with 20 of those games coming against division foes. If the Red Sox are a true contender, they’ll need to survive this mid-summer test to prove it.

The Braves have cooled off a bit after their 14-game win streak was snapped a few weeks ago. They lost series to the Cubs and Dodgers, though a pair of walk-off wins helped them earn a series win against the Giants. They have managed to cut their deficit in the NL East to just five games — it was 10.5 games at the start of their win streak — and look like they’ll give the Mets a run for their money to claim the division title. As for New York, Max Scherzer is on the mend and should rejoin the team soon. That will certainly give the rotation a boost, though Taijuan Walker and David Peterson have picked up a lot of the slack while three of the team’s best starters have been injured.

Tier 3 – Solid Contenders
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Twins 41-33 0 111 96 103 -3 123 57.1%
Blue Jays 40-32 1 112 95 106 -2 130 93.4%
Cardinals 41-34 -3 108 101 98 2 121 50.4%

The Blue Jays dropped their third consecutive series over the weekend and have lost a ton of ground in the AL East as a result. It’s not their offense that’s the problem; Alejandro Kirk has led them to 5.8 runs per game over the last two weeks. The pitching staff, on the other hand, has really struggled; they allowed 6.7 runs per game during that same stretch. Hyun Jin Ryu was just lost for the season to his second Tommy John surgery and José Berríos and Kevin Gausman have looked particularly hittable recently. The Blue Jays are scheduled to play 15 games over the next 14 days, including a long West Coast road trip to Oakland and Seattle next week.

The Cardinals have scuffled a bit, too, but they haven’t lost much ground in the NL Central because the Brewers are struggling at the same time. Those two teams split a four-game series early last week, with the teams looking evenly matched. St. Louis dropped their weekend series to the Cubs while Milwaukee took two of three from the Blue Jays. To make matters worse, Jack Flaherty, who was only making his third start of the season after a lengthy IL stay, left Sunday’s start with shoulder discomfort. With Steven Matz and Jordan Hicks already sidelined, Flaherty’s latest injury puts even more strain on the Cardinals rotation.

Tier 4 – The Melee
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Angels 35-40 -3 102 93 107 8 123 12.1%
Brewers 42-33 2 100 96 88 -7 105 78.4%
Guardians 36-32 -1 100 106 92 11 113 35.0%
Phillies 39-35 -2 103 87 98 -21 111 32.6%
Giants 39-33 -1 108 91 102 -20 108 59.8%
Rays 40-32 2 98 92 103 3 102 61.4%
Mariners 34-40 -3 108 104 103 4 116 10.3%
White Sox 34-37 4 98 105 108 -11 67 44.7%

The Angels and Mariners played eight games against each other over the last two weeks. That many games between two division rivals fighting to salvage their seasons, and in such quick succession, was bound to build up some tension. Everything spilled over on Sunday afternoon, as the two teams got into it after the Angels threw at two Seattle batters early in the game (the Angels took exception to a pitch thrown close to Mike Trout’s head the night before). Punches and sunflower seeds were thrown, Jesse Winker received a pizza delivery in the clubhouse, and the Angels barely avoided a three-game sweep after Winker, J.P. Crawford, and Julio Rodríguez were all ejected due to the fracas.

The fallout from the fight will likely hurt the Mariners more. They’re already missing a significant number of offensive contributors, and Ty France just hit the IL on Friday after spraining his elbow earlier in the week. Winker and Crawford are likely facing suspensions for their actions on Sunday, further depleting a lineup that’s been stretched beyond its breaking point. Fortunately, Seattle’s pitching staff has been fantastic this month; their starters have recorded three runs or fewer in 24 straight starts and their bullpen has finally started to sort itself out after some early season woes.

After their huge come-from-behind victory against the Twins on Wednesday, the Guardians actually briefly took the AL Central lead, but they followed that up with four straight losses over the weekend. They’ll get another chance against Minnesota this week, with five games on the docket over the next four days. In fact, this week marks the beginning of a three week stretch where the Guardians will play 23 games in 21 days with just a single off day scheduled, and 20 of those games are against division rivals.

Just as the Phillies were building some momentum and moving up the standings, Bryce Harper fractured his thumb and will likely be out for a significant amount of time. Kyle Schwarber has done everything he can to carry the team during their recent hot streak — he launched his 10th home run of the month yesterday — and will have to continue hitting well with Harper out of the lineup. The Phillies need all hands on deck if they want to make some noise in the NL Wild Card race this summer, and their margin for error is now razor thin.

The Rays had really stumbled heading into their weekend series against the Pirates. A three-game sweep got them back on track, though it required two walk-off wins to get there. Before their series against Pittsburgh, they had lost four straight series — two to the Yankees, and one apiece to the Twins and Orioles. Injuries have been a key factor in their mid-season swoon. Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, Manuel Margot, Kevin Kiermaier, Mike Zunino, and Drew Rasmussen have all suffered various maladies recently, though Franco returned from the IL yesterday. The minor league depth Tampa Bay is so adept at accumulating is being put to the test, and hopefully this weekend is a sign things are starting to take a turn for the better.

Tier 5 – Hanging by a Thread
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Marlins 33-38 -4 104 99 104 0 111 5.2%
Rangers 34-37 -2 97 104 98 -9 71 5.0%
Diamondbacks 33-41 1 87 105 107 9 70 0.1%
Orioles 34-40 0 92 117 85 -4 68 0.2%

Don’t look now, but the Orioles have a winning record in June (13-10) and as many wins on the season as the Rangers, Mariners, and White Sox. They came so close to completing a four-game sweep of the White Sox over the weekend, and collected four wins in seven games against the Rays and Blue Jays a couple of weeks ago. Their pitching staff in particular has been extremely good recently; they’ve allowed 3.3 runs per game over their last 13 games, and that includes a 11 run clunker against Toronto. Offensively, Adley Rutschman is finally starting to look like he has acclimated to the major leagues — he’s collected 12 hits and the first two home runs of his big league career during this stretch — and Austin Hays is making a strong case to be the Orioles’ representative at the All-Star game next month.

Tier 6 – No Man’s Land
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Cubs 28-45 -1 99 119 107 -8 58 0.1%
Rockies 31-42 2 90 103 99 -16 56 0.0%
Tigers 28-44 5 76 118 84 3 62 0.2%

The Tigers offense has shown a little life over the last couple of weeks. Two weekends ago, they put up 21 runs in two games against the Rangers, nearly matching their total runs scored over their previous 10 games combined. They couldn’t do much against the Red Sox earlier last week but scored 18 against the Diamondbacks over the weekend. The biggest news is that Javier Báez has seemed to find his hitting stroke. Mired in a season-long slump for most of his first year in Detroit, he blasted home runs in three consecutive games last week and collected seven other hits. It’s too late for the Tigers to make any noise in the AL Central this year, but Riley Greene is patrolling center field in the majors now and Spencer Torkelson has the rest of this season to adjust to big league pitching.

Tier 7 – Hope Deferred
Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds
Royals 26-45 1 92 121 116 7 52 0.1%
Pirates 29-43 4 84 115 106 -8 36 0.0%
Athletics 25-49 1 77 114 114 1 38 0.0%
Reds 25-47 -3 89 114 115 -9 30 0.0%
Nationals 27-48 1 95 128 110 -24 27 0.0%

How many more starts will Frankie Montas make in an A’s uniform? He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning during his last start and suitors have to be lining up, hoping to secure one of the biggest names on the trade market this summer. Whenever that trade materializes, Oakland will likely add a number of prospects to their already replenished system. That’s important because a lot of the major league-ready youngsters they acquired during their offseason fire sale have fallen flat; Cristian Pache still hasn’t proven he can hit at the big league level and Kevin Smith was sent back to Triple-A for more seasoning.

Complete Power Rankings
Rank Team Record “Luck” wRC+ SP- RP- RAA Team Quality Playoff Odds Δ
1 Yankees 53-20 0 117 78 77 3 187 100.0% 0
2 Dodgers 45-26 -5 115 78 83 -3 168 97.3% 1
3 Astros 45-27 1 113 91 81 15 182 99.8% -1
4 Padres 45-30 0 100 88 91 22 143 90.3% 2
5 Mets 47-27 3 112 96 94 -2 137 97.3% -1
6 Red Sox 42-31 -2 108 90 99 7 143 80.6% 3
7 Braves 42-32 0 107 92 79 -2 141 88.5% 0
8 Twins 41-33 0 111 96 103 -3 123 57.1% 0
9 Blue Jays 40-32 1 112 95 106 -2 130 93.4% -4
10 Cardinals 41-34 -3 108 101 98 2 121 50.4% 1
11 Angels 35-40 -3 102 93 107 8 123 12.1% 1
12 Brewers 42-33 2 100 96 88 -7 105 78.4% 5
13 Guardians 36-32 -1 100 106 92 11 113 35.0% 1
14 Phillies 39-35 -2 103 87 98 -21 111 32.6% 2
15 Giants 39-33 -1 108 91 102 -20 108 59.8% -2
16 Rays 40-32 2 98 92 103 3 102 61.4% -6
17 Mariners 34-40 -3 108 104 103 4 116 10.3% 2
18 Marlins 33-38 -4 104 99 104 0 111 5.2% -3
19 Rangers 34-37 -2 97 104 98 -9 71 5.0% -1
20 Diamondbacks 33-41 1 87 105 107 9 70 0.1% 0
21 Orioles 34-40 0 92 117 85 -4 68 0.2% 1
22 White Sox 34-37 4 98 105 108 -11 67 44.7% 1
23 Cubs 28-45 -1 99 119 107 -8 58 0.1% -2
24 Rockies 31-42 2 90 103 99 -16 56 0.0% 1
25 Tigers 28-44 5 76 118 84 3 62 0.2% -1
26 Royals 26-45 1 92 121 116 7 52 0.1% 0
27 Pirates 29-43 4 84 115 106 -8 36 0.0% 1
28 Athletics 25-49 1 77 114 114 1 38 0.0% 2
29 Reds 25-47 -3 89 114 115 -9 30 0.0% 0
30 Nationals 27-48 1 95 128 110 -24 27 0.0% -3





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

18 Comments
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David Kleinmember
1 month ago

Mets really could use another bat preferably a power bat as Escobar and Canha haven’t hit for any power and Dom has been a disaster, and while Davis hits the ball extremely hard he’s a ground ball and strike out machine.

Last edited 1 month ago by David Klein
sadtrombonemember
1 month ago
Reply to  David Klein

How much power are we talking about? Because Willson Contreras should be available. Or if you believe Brandon Drury has turned the corner (which I am a wee bit skeptical of), he will be available too.

Last edited 1 month ago by sadtrombone
David Kleinmember
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Well they’ve gotten two homers from Davis and Smith combined in 250+ combined plate appearances and Canha and Escobar have 12 combined homers so a decent amount. Contreras would be a big help but would cost too much prospect capital for a rental. I dunno maybe Peralta or Mancini or Cron? Josh Bell would make a lot of sense as the dh but he’d cost a lot so that’s unlikely. The Mets I believe have 70 homers and Lindor and Alonso have combined for nearly half of those so maybe they go internal and call up Vientos or Alvarez with Vientos being much more likely.

Last edited 1 month ago by David Klein
sadtrombonemember
1 month ago
Reply to  David Klein

IDK, flags fly forever and the price for rental bats can sometimes be not too high. There won’t be that many teams looking for catching upgrades since the Cards might want to not bump Molina off, and the Astros and Guardians are pretty stingy about trading prospects. That leaves the Mets, Twins, and Padres. And maybe not all of them.

Markmember
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Just feels unlikely with them having McCann signed for this year and two more after. It’d probably look bad to other players unless they moved him in the trade. But then they’re forced to bring in someone next year so that Alvarez doesn’t start. Just seems complicated. DH seems like a lot easier upgrade path for them. And two relievers.

hughduffy
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Joc Pederson: Bryce Ball
Stephen Vogt: Mason Berne
Jorge Soler: Kasey Kalich
Eddie Rosario and cash: Pablo Sandoval
Adam Duvall: Alex Jackson
Richard Rodriguez: Bryse Wilson and Ricky DeVito.
A World Series Championship: Priceless.

The most expensive trade the Braves made last year was for the reliever who didn’t pan out. If you’re willing and able to take on salary, there will be bats available for not much talent.

sadtrombonemember
1 month ago
Reply to  hughduffy

To be fair, Willson Contreras is going to require a whole lot more in prospects than Bryce Ball or Alex Jackson. All of those guys were underperforming what they did before, and Contreras is hitting the snot out of the ball.

With the expanded playoffs, there are very few people who are underperforming like that who are available (Joey Gallo comes to mind; he’s maybe seen as more of an internal upgrade). And even if they were to make a play for Avisail Garcia or Wil Myers, do the Mets think they’d be an upgrade over JD Davis? If the price for Contreras is too high, I think Drury might be the next most likely target for a team looking for power.

hughduffy
1 month ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

If teams are looking for some pop, Gary Sánchez has a great hard hit percentage this year and will probably be less expensive than Contreras in terms of talent. But he might only be available if Texas falls completely out of it.