FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 13–26

It’s been an eventful two weeks as teams continue to jockey for position heading into midseason.

A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), and their starting rotation and bullpen (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by IP share) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. New for this year, I’ve opted to include defense as a component, though it’s weighted less heavily than offense and pitching. Some element of team defense is captured by RA9-, but now that FanGraphs has Statcast’s OAA/RAA available on our leaderboards, I’ve chosen to include that as the defensive component for each team. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.

In a preview of a potential ALCS matchup, the Yankees and Astros played a highly entertaining four-game series this weekend. Houston would have held the advantage if it weren’t for some dramatic come-from-behind wins on Thursday and Sunday. In between those two walk-off wins, the Astros put together 16.1 consecutive hitless innings, including a combined no-hitter on Saturday. The Yankees actually didn’t lead at any point during any of the four games until the final batters on Thursday and Sunday, with Aaron Judge delivering the decisive hit both times. That four-game set against Houston wrapped up a tough stretch of games that saw the Yankees also face the Rays six times and the Blue Jays three; they exit this gauntlet with a 9-4 record against some of the best the American League has to offer.

As for the Astros, they’ll stick around New York this week to face the Mets in a possible World Series preview. They’ll face the Yankees again on Thursday — an early season reschedule — before hosting the Angels next weekend. They don’t have the gaudy win total the Yankees do, but they showed they were capable of hanging with them these last four games. They’re about to get healthier, too; Jeremy Peña and Jake Meyers were just activated off the IL last weekend and Jake Odorizzi should be close behind.

The Dodgers’ up-and-down season continues. A week after Walker Buehler was sidelined with a strained forearm, Mookie Betts hit the IL with a fractured rib last Thursday. Joining Betts are Andrew Heaney and Daniel Hudson, with the former sidelined by a flare up of the shoulder issue that held him out for more than two months and the latter lost for the season to an ACL tear. The Dodgers actually lost their hold on the National League West a day after putting Betts on the IL, but have responded with six wins in eight games since, including a dramatic weekend series against the reigning champion Braves in Atlanta. With the Padres breathing down their necks, reclaiming the division title won’t be an easy task this summer, made all the more difficult by the many absences they’re facing.

After their early season struggles, the Red Sox have really come alive in June. They’ve lost just four times this month and are in the midst of a seven-game win streak punctuated by a sweep of the Guardians in Cleveland over the weekend. They’re now 11 games over .500 and have leapfrogged the Rays and Blue Jays in the AL East standings. All those wins are critically important because they’re about to face the most difficult stretch of their season; over their next 33 games, they play a team with a record under .500 just three times — a three-game set against the Cubs this weekend — with 20 of those games coming against division foes. If the Red Sox are a true contender, they’ll need to survive this mid-summer test to prove it.

The Braves have cooled off a bit after their 14-game win streak was snapped a few weeks ago. They lost series to the Cubs and Dodgers, though a pair of walk-off wins helped them earn a series win against the Giants. They have managed to cut their deficit in the NL East to just five games — it was 10.5 games at the start of their win streak — and look like they’ll give the Mets a run for their money to claim the division title. As for New York, Max Scherzer is on the mend and should rejoin the team soon. That will certainly give the rotation a boost, though Taijuan Walker and David Peterson have picked up a lot of the slack while three of the team’s best starters have been injured.

The Blue Jays dropped their third consecutive series over the weekend and have lost a ton of ground in the AL East as a result. It’s not their offense that’s the problem; Alejandro Kirk has led them to 5.8 runs per game over the last two weeks. The pitching staff, on the other hand, has really struggled; they allowed 6.7 runs per game during that same stretch. Hyun Jin Ryu was just lost for the season to his second Tommy John surgery and José Berríos and Kevin Gausman have looked particularly hittable recently. The Blue Jays are scheduled to play 15 games over the next 14 days, including a long West Coast road trip to Oakland and Seattle next week.

The Cardinals have scuffled a bit, too, but they haven’t lost much ground in the NL Central because the Brewers are struggling at the same time. Those two teams split a four-game series early last week, with the teams looking evenly matched. St. Louis dropped their weekend series to the Cubs while Milwaukee took two of three from the Blue Jays. To make matters worse, Jack Flaherty, who was only making his third start of the season after a lengthy IL stay, left Sunday’s start with shoulder discomfort. With Steven Matz and Jordan Hicks already sidelined, Flaherty’s latest injury puts even more strain on the Cardinals rotation.

The Angels and Mariners played eight games against each other over the last two weeks. That many games between two division rivals fighting to salvage their seasons, and in such quick succession, was bound to build up some tension. Everything spilled over on Sunday afternoon, as the two teams got into it after the Angels threw at two Seattle batters early in the game (the Angels took exception to a pitch thrown close to Mike Trout’s head the night before). Punches and sunflower seeds were thrown, Jesse Winker received a pizza delivery in the clubhouse, and the Angels barely avoided a three-game sweep after Winker, J.P. Crawford, and Julio Rodríguez were all ejected due to the fracas.

The fallout from the fight will likely hurt the Mariners more. They’re already missing a significant number of offensive contributors, and Ty France just hit the IL on Friday after spraining his elbow earlier in the week. Winker and Crawford are likely facing suspensions for their actions on Sunday, further depleting a lineup that’s been stretched beyond its breaking point. Fortunately, Seattle’s pitching staff has been fantastic this month; their starters have recorded three runs or fewer in 24 straight starts and their bullpen has finally started to sort itself out after some early season woes.

After their huge come-from-behind victory against the Twins on Wednesday, the Guardians actually briefly took the AL Central lead, but they followed that up with four straight losses over the weekend. They’ll get another chance against Minnesota this week, with five games on the docket over the next four days. In fact, this week marks the beginning of a three week stretch where the Guardians will play 23 games in 21 days with just a single off day scheduled, and 20 of those games are against division rivals.

Just as the Phillies were building some momentum and moving up the standings, Bryce Harper fractured his thumb and will likely be out for a significant amount of time. Kyle Schwarber has done everything he can to carry the team during their recent hot streak — he launched his 10th home run of the month yesterday — and will have to continue hitting well with Harper out of the lineup. The Phillies need all hands on deck if they want to make some noise in the NL Wild Card race this summer, and their margin for error is now razor thin.

The Rays had really stumbled heading into their weekend series against the Pirates. A three-game sweep got them back on track, though it required two walk-off wins to get there. Before their series against Pittsburgh, they had lost four straight series — two to the Yankees, and one apiece to the Twins and Orioles. Injuries have been a key factor in their mid-season swoon. Wander Franco, Brandon Lowe, Manuel Margot, Kevin Kiermaier, Mike Zunino, and Drew Rasmussen have all suffered various maladies recently, though Franco returned from the IL yesterday. The minor league depth Tampa Bay is so adept at accumulating is being put to the test, and hopefully this weekend is a sign things are starting to take a turn for the better.

Don’t look now, but the Orioles have a winning record in June (13-10) and as many wins on the season as the Rangers, Mariners, and White Sox. They came so close to completing a four-game sweep of the White Sox over the weekend, and collected four wins in seven games against the Rays and Blue Jays a couple of weeks ago. Their pitching staff in particular has been extremely good recently; they’ve allowed 3.3 runs per game over their last 13 games, and that includes a 11 run clunker against Toronto. Offensively, Adley Rutschman is finally starting to look like he has acclimated to the major leagues — he’s collected 12 hits and the first two home runs of his big league career during this stretch — and Austin Hays is making a strong case to be the Orioles’ representative at the All-Star game next month.

The Tigers offense has shown a little life over the last couple of weeks. Two weekends ago, they put up 21 runs in two games against the Rangers, nearly matching their total runs scored over their previous 10 games combined. They couldn’t do much against the Red Sox earlier last week but scored 18 against the Diamondbacks over the weekend. The biggest news is that Javier Báez has seemed to find his hitting stroke. Mired in a season-long slump for most of his first year in Detroit, he blasted home runs in three consecutive games last week and collected seven other hits. It’s too late for the Tigers to make any noise in the AL Central this year, but Riley Greene is patrolling center field in the majors now and Spencer Torkelson has the rest of this season to adjust to big league pitching.

How many more starts will Frankie Montas make in an A’s uniform? He took a no-hitter into the eighth inning during his last start and suitors have to be lining up, hoping to secure one of the biggest names on the trade market this summer. Whenever that trade materializes, Oakland will likely add a number of prospects to their already replenished system. That’s important because a lot of the major league-ready youngsters they acquired during their offseason fire sale have fallen flat; Cristian Pache still hasn’t proven he can hit at the big league level and Kevin Smith was sent back to Triple-A for more seasoning.

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