FanGraphs Power Rankings: June 5–11
The Reds are fun again, the A’s have won five straight, and the Diamondbacks and Pirates are leading their divisions. Apparently, we’ve entered the bizarro portion of the season.
A reminder for how these rankings are calculated: first, we take the three most important components of a team — their offense (wRC+), their pitching (a 50/50 blend of FIP- and RA9-, weighted by starter and reliever IP share), and their defense (RAA) — and combine them to create an overall team quality metric. I also add in a factor for “luck,” adjusting a team’s win percentage based on expected win-loss record. The result is a power ranking, which is then presented in tiers below.
| Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 41-23 | -4 | 121 | 85 | 98 | 5 | 168 | 78.9% |
| Rays | 48-20 | 1 | 131 | 79 | 111 | 6 | 160 | 99.1% |
| Braves | 40-25 | 1 | 114 | 90 | 87 | -10 | 144 | 98.7% |
The big Rays-Rangers series over the weekend did not disappoint. None of the games were particularly close affairs, but both teams were able to showcase the top two offenses in baseball this year. On Saturday, Corey Seager went 5-for-5 with a home run and a double to power Texas’ eight-run outburst. The following day, Wander Franco blasted a go-ahead three-run home run in the fourth inning, his first dinger since May 9.
Beyond the big matchup with Tampa Bay, Texas also had to deal with some unfortunate news last week: Jacob deGrom will undergo his second Tommy John surgery and miss the rest of this season and most of the next. That puts a ton of pressure on the rest of the Rangers’ rotation to continue carrying the load without the best pitcher in baseball among their ranks. Luckily, Nathan Eovaldi has been phenomenal, and Dane Dunning has been doing his best to cover for deGrom, only now he’ll be needed for the entire season instead of just for a short while.
| Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diamondbacks | 40-25 | 4 | 106 | 100 | 99 | 9 | 136 | 74.9% |
| Dodgers | 37-29 | -2 | 115 | 97 | 106 | 3 | 133 | 91.1% |
| Blue Jays | 37-30 | 1 | 111 | 97 | 92 | 2 | 143 | 63.6% |
| Astros | 37-29 | -2 | 98 | 88 | 86 | 6 | 125 | 70.8% |
The Diamondbacks won their fifth straight game on Sunday — a dramatic, come-from-behind victory in Detroit — and enter this week tied for the best record in the National League. More importantly, they’re 3.5 games clear of the Dodgers in the NL West; the last time they won the division was all the way back in 2011. They’re being led by Corbin Carroll, the current favorite to win the NL Rookie of the Year award. He’s already collected 15 hits, four home runs, and 11 RBIs in June, including a pair of dingers on Friday night to power Arizona to a win.
The Dodgers lost back-to-back, walk-off games against the Reds to start the week, then dropped another game in the ninth on Friday in Philadelphia. Suddenly, they’ve lost seven of their last ten games and 13 of their last 25. The beginning of this slide coincided with injuries to Dustin May and Julio Urías, and Noah Syndergaard just joined those two on the IL. Perhaps that will be blessing in disguise, since Syndergaard has been one of the worst starters in baseball this season, but it will continue to strain the Dodgers’ pitching depth.
| Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Angels | 36-31 | 1 | 110 | 106 | 92 | -1 | 125 | 31.4% |
| Orioles | 41-24 | 5 | 107 | 104 | 82 | -13 | 113 | 53.7% |
| Giants | 33-32 | -1 | 105 | 96 | 100 | 7 | 130 | 44.0% |
| Yankees | 38-29 | 0 | 99 | 102 | 81 | 4 | 114 | 70.0% |
The Angels rattled off five wins in a row last week and beat the Mariners in a three-game series over the weekend to push their record to five games over .500, matching a season high. Shohei Ohtani has unsurprisingly been the star of the show; over his last 12 games, he’s collected 19 hits and six home runs. More surprising is the continued sluggish performance of Mike Trout; he’s collected just four hits this month, and his wRC+ has now dipped to 127. They’ll head to Texas to face the Rangers for four games in a big divisional battle this week.
| Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twins | 33-33 | -4 | 100 | 81 | 91 | -10 | 117 | 63.7% |
| Padres | 31-34 | -4 | 98 | 94 | 90 | 16 | 123 | 55.7% |
| Pirates | 34-30 | 2 | 100 | 97 | 94 | -2 | 109 | 24.2% |
| Marlins | 37-29 | 6 | 99 | 92 | 101 | -4 | 97 | 51.9% |
| Mariners | 31-33 | -1 | 98 | 95 | 92 | 9 | 121 | 16.2% |
The Padres are slowly climbing the standings, winning four of their six games last week. Their superstar core clearly hasn’t been carrying their share of the load; Juan Soto is finally hitting like his normal self, but Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts have suffered from various maladies, and Fernando Tatis Jr.’s return from his lost season has been rather uneven. Thankfully, they are getting some new contributions from Gary Sánchez, playing for his third organization this season; he’s slugged five home runs for San Diego since he was picked up off waivers at the end of May.
The Pirates took over control of the NL Central after winning their weekend series against the Mets. Andrew McCutchen collected his 2,000th career hit, Ke’Bryan Hayes is heating up at the plate, and Mitch Keller has continued to look dominant on the mound. Pittsburgh has played its way into position to make a surprise run into the playoffs this summer, but instead of acting like a win-now ballclub, the team might be better off continuing to look to the future in the hope that this season is a springboard to a more sustainable contender over the next few years.
The Marlins have won 12 of their last 15 games and are now tied atop the NL Wild Card standings with the Dodgers. Their offense has come alive this month: they’ve scored 5.7 runs per game in June, a huge jump over what they produced during the first two months of the season. The big story is Luis Arraez’s chase for .400, though that’s overshadowed the excellence of Jorge Soler, Bryan De La Cruz, and Jesús Sánchez. And they’ve been able to weather the struggles of Sandy Alcantara because the rest of their young rotation has been phenomenal behind him.
| Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brewers | 34-32 | 3 | 87 | 99 | 102 | 8 | 84 | 55.0% |
| Red Sox | 33-33 | 0 | 105 | 110 | 96 | -13 | 80 | 13.2% |
| Phillies | 32-33 | 3 | 99 | 95 | 100 | -5 | 91 | 37.0% |
| Cardinals | 27-39 | -6 | 107 | 106 | 95 | -4 | 112 | 18.5% |
| Guardians | 31-34 | 1 | 86 | 95 | 87 | 2 | 89 | 31.1% |
| Cubs | 28-37 | -3 | 97 | 92 | 102 | 2 | 95 | 9.9% |
| Mets | 31-35 | 0 | 102 | 117 | 109 | -3 | 74 | 34.2% |
| Reds | 31-35 | 1 | 93 | 115 | 89 | -7 | 63 | 4.8% |
It’s impossible to get a read on the direction of the teams in this tier. They’re all close enough to contending that they can’t be counted out of the playoff picture, but none of them have been playing consistently well this season. Case in point: the Guardians. They’ve been mired in a disappointing campaign, hitting their low point of seven games under .500 on June 2. Since then, they’ve come alive with six wins in eight games, including series wins against the Red Sox and Astros. Their offense, which had been the worst in baseball, scored in the double digits in back-to-back games last week behind José Ramírez (10 hits and four home runs during this stretch), Josh Naylor (14 hits), and Will Brennan (11 hits, two homers). They’re now just a game and a half back of Minnesota in the AL Central and very much in the AL playoff picture.
Speaking of hot and cold teams, the Cubs held the Giants to just two runs during the first two games of their weekend series behind a solid start from Marcus Stroman and a vintage outing from Kyle Hendricks. Then they were blown up for 13 runs in the final game of the series. That’s sort of a microcosm of their season: They’re sporadically getting good enough performances from parts of their roster, but that success has been inconsistent at best. Still, they’re playing in a weak division, are just 5.5 games out in the NL Wild Card race, and have six games against the Pirates over the next two weeks. Now is as good a time as any to try to make a move up the standings.
Don’t look now, but the Reds are just three games back in the NL Wild Card standings, and no team is more fun to watch right now. That’s what happens when you call up a young phenom like Elly De La Cruz. His electric introduction to the big leagues has been a joy to watch, and it’s given fans in Cincinnati something to cheer about after a dismal and disappointing season last year. De La Cruz joins Matt McLain, Andrew Abbott, and Brandon Williamson as top prospects to make their debuts this year, and there are more on the way.
| Team | Record | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | 29-38 | 1 | 87 | 106 | 116 | 0 | 48 | 7.2% |
| Tigers | 26-37 | 3 | 82 | 109 | 102 | 8 | 57 | 1.2% |
| Nationals | 26-38 | -2 | 95 | 108 | 114 | -2 | 51 | 0.0% |
| Rockies | 27-40 | 0 | 82 | 119 | 93 | -10 | 32 | 0.0% |
| Royals | 18-47 | -4 | 82 | 117 | 107 | 8 | 44 | 0.0% |
| Athletics | 17-50 | 0 | 92 | 152 | 141 | -8 | 24 | 0.0% |
The A’s have won five games in a row! After winning their first series of the season at the very end of May — against the Braves of all teams! — Oakland has put together a nice little win streak with two victories in Pittsburgh and a sweep of the Brewers in Milwaukee. The A’s have a date with the Rays this week, though, which should put a quick end to their mini hot streak. But if you’re the superstitious type, this run of good play has come as soon as the Las Vegas stadium plans have come to a halt, with the future home of the franchise very much up in the air.
…
| Rank | Team | Record | “Luck” | wRC+ | SP- | RP- | RAA | Team Quality | Playoff Odds | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rangers | 41-23 | -4 | 121 | 85 | 98 | 5 | 168 | 78.9% | 0 |
| 2 | Rays | 48-20 | 1 | 131 | 79 | 111 | 6 | 160 | 99.1% | 0 |
| 3 | Braves | 40-25 | 1 | 114 | 90 | 87 | -10 | 144 | 98.7% | 0 |
| 4 | Diamondbacks | 40-25 | 4 | 106 | 100 | 99 | 9 | 136 | 74.9% | 3 |
| 5 | Dodgers | 37-29 | -2 | 115 | 97 | 106 | 3 | 133 | 91.1% | 0 |
| 6 | Blue Jays | 37-30 | 1 | 111 | 97 | 92 | 2 | 143 | 63.6% | -2 |
| 7 | Astros | 37-29 | -2 | 98 | 88 | 86 | 6 | 125 | 70.8% | -1 |
| 8 | Angels | 36-31 | 1 | 110 | 106 | 92 | -1 | 125 | 31.4% | 4 |
| 9 | Orioles | 41-24 | 5 | 107 | 104 | 82 | -13 | 113 | 53.7% | -1 |
| 10 | Giants | 33-32 | -1 | 105 | 96 | 100 | 7 | 130 | 44.0% | 6 |
| 11 | Yankees | 38-29 | 0 | 99 | 102 | 81 | 4 | 114 | 70.0% | -2 |
| 12 | Twins | 33-33 | -4 | 100 | 81 | 91 | -10 | 117 | 63.7% | -2 |
| 13 | Padres | 31-34 | -4 | 98 | 94 | 90 | 16 | 123 | 55.7% | 2 |
| 14 | Pirates | 34-30 | 2 | 100 | 97 | 94 | -2 | 109 | 24.2% | 0 |
| 15 | Marlins | 37-29 | 6 | 99 | 92 | 101 | -4 | 97 | 51.9% | 4 |
| 16 | Mariners | 31-33 | -1 | 98 | 95 | 92 | 9 | 121 | 16.2% | -5 |
| 17 | Brewers | 34-32 | 3 | 87 | 99 | 102 | 8 | 84 | 55.0% | 1 |
| 18 | Red Sox | 33-33 | 0 | 105 | 110 | 96 | -13 | 80 | 13.2% | -1 |
| 19 | Phillies | 32-33 | 3 | 99 | 95 | 100 | -5 | 91 | 37.0% | 3 |
| 20 | Cardinals | 27-39 | -6 | 107 | 106 | 95 | -4 | 112 | 18.5% | 1 |
| 21 | Guardians | 31-34 | 1 | 86 | 95 | 87 | 2 | 89 | 31.1% | 3 |
| 22 | Cubs | 28-37 | -3 | 97 | 92 | 102 | 2 | 95 | 9.9% | -9 |
| 23 | Mets | 31-35 | 0 | 102 | 117 | 109 | -3 | 74 | 34.2% | -3 |
| 24 | Reds | 31-35 | 1 | 93 | 115 | 89 | -7 | 63 | 4.8% | 1 |
| 25 | White Sox | 29-38 | 1 | 87 | 106 | 116 | 0 | 48 | 7.2% | 2 |
| 26 | Tigers | 26-37 | 3 | 82 | 109 | 102 | 8 | 57 | 1.2% | -3 |
| 27 | Nationals | 26-38 | -2 | 95 | 108 | 114 | -2 | 51 | 0.0% | -1 |
| 28 | Rockies | 27-40 | 0 | 82 | 119 | 93 | -10 | 32 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 29 | Royals | 18-47 | -4 | 82 | 117 | 107 | 8 | 44 | 0.0% | -1 |
| 30 | Athletics | 17-50 | 0 | 92 | 152 | 141 | -8 | 24 | 0.0% | 0 |
Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on BlueSky @jakemailhot.
The Guardians bats weren’t matching their xwOBAs this entire season. That alone would have boosted their performance. I didn’t think they’d rebound quite that explosively, but I was expecting something, and they do still have a couple guys who are lagging. Bieber looking like he was fully together in his last game helps too. I’m just happy my home team looks somewhat competent again.
Slightly lost in the last week is that Gabriel Arias and Tyler Freeman have both been quietly great whenever they get consistent playing time. Arias in particular looks to be figuring things out a bit more; though he swings and misses a lot, he’s been adjusting his swings to hit the ball where it’s pitched instead of trying to pull off pitches, and it’s improved his hard contact tremendously, and he’s swinging at pitches in the zone far more often without dropping his walk rate much. He’s also adjusted to being better defensively, which allows Francona to mix and match more often, to the team’s benefit. I’m very happy with his improvement, given that last year he looked like he’d never be more than a bench defender with some pop.
The two big issues among the position players are catcher and shortstop.
They HAVE to bring up Naylor at some point. But how much playing time do they give him and which of the other catchers get the boot?
And at SS, what are they going to do with Rosario? Hard to see them just releasing him but I’m not sure what else they can do at this point? (why Francona insists on batting him 2nd is beyond me).
Straw is an issue at as well but at least he has defensive value (in theory).
Zunino should be booted. Like, his defensive value has gone down the toilet, and since his early season hot streak, he’s been one of the worst hitters in baseball. And unlike most Guardians hitters, his xwOBA is lower than his actual, so there’s not really much hope of a rebound. Gallagher at least is framing at an elite level.
At shortstop, just play Freeman or Arias every day. They’re both better players than Rosario at this point. He should be flipped to a team with a need at short or a desire for more depth, even if he doesn’t bring back much of anything.
As for batting him second, he is good at motivating his teammates and can consistently get Kwan over if he’s on base. But Francona just doesn’t make batting order adjustments very often.
The good thing about Francona is that he doesn’t overreact when a veteran is underperforming.
The bad thing about Francona is that he doesn’t overreact when a veteran is underperforming.
The Reds making it out of the last tier…never thought I’d see the day.
Same YTD results as the Mets, at like 25% of the payroll!
I shouldn’t have made that “I wish the Reds could be as good as the Mets!” wish during Spring Training.
I tend to believe in the Guardians more than most partially because we’ve seen this same story play out almost every year under Francona. Team gets off to a slow start and then comes on later in the year. For example, they didn’t permanently reach +.500 until the 89th game of the season last year, yet went on to win 92 games.
This year’s team seems to be coming around. The rotation has been stabilized with the additions of Allen and Bibee and the return of Mckenzie. And the offense has put up 5.54 runs per game over the past 13 games, playing against quality opponents (Orioles, Twins, Red Sox, and Astros).
IMO,he’s the best manager in baseball.No one maximizes their roster like he does.
Why is FIP still being used to evaluate anything when xERA is a thing?
xERA isn’t as good of a predictor of future performance as FIP is. xERA is great at contextualizing performance to that point, but not as a predictor.
That’s incorrect, FIP and xERA are very similar.
Interesting, I didn’t realize that they had almost identical predictive value. The main difference being that FIP ignores contact quality, which isn’t something pitchers have much control over, while xERA uses it as part of the xwOBA conversion. Honestly, kind of surprised that their value in that regard is so similar.
FIP doesn’t really ignore contact quality, home runs are an input and are almost always the worst kind of contact for a pitcher. Sure it’s not savant-based, but it’s not really surprising that a formula that uses home runs as an input lines up pretty well with a formula that uses hard contact and angle as inputs.
That makes more sense now, thank you. I suppose that considering the full range of contact makes up for not including the best predictor in K/BB? Something has to explain how they end up with similar results despite the range of considered outcomes being smaller.
It seems to me that being able to locate pitches or not would have bearing on contact quality.
Yes, but K/BB is a better predictor of that than opponent’s xwOBA.
So it’s good that xERA also accounts for K/BB. But it accounts for other things (like xwOBA), too, which makes it more predictive than FIP, which can only measure if the ball went over the fence or not.
Wrong! Quality of contact beyond home runs IS something pitchers have significant control over. That myth died many years ago and is why FIP is ONLY useful for its predictive value and NOT for analytical value, and now xERA is at least just as good at its own game.
I thought the “x” stats were the predictors. FIP not so much. Which, upon reflection, could be a point against my contention (comparing apples and oranges). It seems defensible, at least, to only look at past performance when compiling these ratings, if that’s what Fangraphs wants to do (although perhaps a strange way to think about “team quality”).
FIP is predictive because it largely only accounts for K-BB ratio and home run rate. The things that pitchers are generally considered to have control over. Whereas xERA takes into account the contact quality of opposing hitters through xwOBA conversion, which isn’t something pitchers control as well. Contact quality is mostly subject to the quality of the opposing hitters and their adjustments. So they come to similar conclusions by looking at different markers.
Basically, over a whole season the quality of opposing hitter is about equal for everyone (I guess unless you play in the AL East), so I’m not sure what that has to do with it. On the other hand, things like spin and location have a lot to do with it: I’ll throw out the example of Gausman the last year+: great K/BB, low HR/9, middling contact quality, miniscule IFFB%. FB gets hit around because it doesn’t have elite spin and he doesn’t really locate it at the top of the zone. xERA accounts for that, FIP not so much.
Between K/BB being the best predictor of future ERA and the differences in SoS for each team being very different, I’m not sure I buy any part of that explanation. The AL East is far from the only one. I guess the new schedule changes mitigates that somewhat, but the teams in the Central divisions will always face weaker competition than the East. The AL West gets to face Oakland a ton this year. And yeah, exceptions like Gausman will always exist, but he’s one guy out of how many? Given that the fact that FIP and xERA have almost identical predictive values according to the study linked above, I’d imagine there are other exceptions that trend in the opposite direction. If we were talking xFIP or SIERA, I could see an argument. But not for xERA.
Gausman is an example of the trend, not the exceptions.
No, it’s BECAUSE pitchers have significant control over contact quality other than just home runs that FIP fails as an analytical tool and is only useful as a predictor in the first place.
Because they’re both roughly predictive of future ERA as the other?
The Yankees’ lineup is so bad that it should be disqualifying for any ranking in the top half of the league. The veterans are all in steep decline but hey, at least the rookies also suck.
Back here in reality the Yankees are in the top half of the league in scoring and one of the best at run prevention while missing time from all of their major bats and starters not named Cole.
They’re in great position for a better second half too.
They have a worse team OBP than the Oakland Athletics and are very possibly going to be missing their only elite hitter until late July at best.
What does that matter when they’re 18th in wRC+ and 13th in Runs Scored? Those aren’t great numbers, but they’re pretty decent and much better than the A’s.
Huh? They have four emerging middle infielders on their roster (Cruz, Marcano, Bae, and Castro). Bae continues to look to me like his future is in CF. That still leaves 3 guys for two spots. And they have more middle infield help in the minors in Gonzales, Peguero, Cheng, and Johnson. Would it be crippling to the long-term outlook for the franchise to trade one of these guys for a rental SP?
Read an interesting article the other day suggesting just such a deal with the going-nowhere White Sox for Kopech: https://rumbunter.com/posts/pittsburgh-pirates-add-pitching-in-mock-trade-with-al-central-team-01h28jjhh32p/2
The Pirates haven’t won a division title over 30 years. I vote that they try to win a weak division, without trading any top prospects. No guarantee that they will be competitive in future years due to injuries, poor performance, etc.
TBH, they may not need to trade anyone to win the division. Milwaukee likely faces similar payroll constraints with not as deep of a farm system (Though they should have more urgency with Burnes & Adames FA getting closer). I can’t see Cincinnati trading prospects. & The Cubs & St. Louis are way back. If neither the Cubs or Cards get it together in the next 6 weeks, is either going to buy?
I could see Pittsburgh adding around the edges (BP help, 4th-5th starter, platoon bats, etc) OR the big move being promoting Davis &/or Endy Rodriguez. They also get Cruz back, prob in August sometime.
It’s amazing, everyone in that division looks awful right now. I wouldn’t even write off the Cubs or Cardinals just yet, but the Pirates can absolutely win it without any additions.
Yeah, but how does that help them in the playoffs? Even if they win the division, they’re highly unlikely to get a first round bye.
Who in their rotation other than Keller would you trust to win a playoff game?
What teams typically do, unless they’re really trying to go all-in, is to look and see if they have any prospects who are on the 40-man bubble or that they know they’re not going to add and try and trade them at the deadline. They would want to see if other teams believe in Nick Gonzales, for example. Or Alika Williams, although it seems unlikely any team would be particularly interested in him.
Can’t believe you posted this without saying Rule 5 eligibility should be on THE BOARD
I put a lot of stock into what the big time draft and prospect analysts say but gosh Corbin Carroll is even more amazing than I was expecting
It was probably smart to not try justifying having Toronto in Tier 2 ahead of Baltimore or NY LOL
The Mariners, on the one hand, have been at .500 or thereabouts all season long. The Mariners, on the other hand, have slipped from #6 to #16 in just two weeks….
I keep wondering what it will take for STL to drop a tier. Clearly, the team score is way too high. Arenado’s defense mysteriously cratered, Walker somehow got worse in the outfield, Contreras is looking like the next albatross contract, Wainwright is a 6.00 ERA guy…not a lot of to point to as a positive for this season or for the future in STL.
When there are all sorts of weird issues and/or underperformance I think it’s time to look at the manager.
Yeah, but there’s also a lot of good performing talent as well, such as Goldschmidt, Gorman, DeJong, Nootbaar, Arenado’s offense, Mikolas, and Flaherty.
The team is just maddingly inconsistent in all areas of play.
I look forward to the day again when I don’t immediately go to the bottom of the page so I can scroll up to see the Nats.