FanGraphs Staff Predicts 2012
It’s Opening Night (last week was Opening Oh God It’s Early, I think), so with the season the brink of starting, we polled our staff and asked them to put down their selections for the playoff teams and the postseason award winners. Unlike last year, there was very little agreement among the group, and the consensus picks are often a plurality but not a majority. While there’s a pretty clear divide between the top six or seven teams and the rest of baseball, there doesn’t appear to be one dominant team that stands out from the group of contenders.
So, without futher ado, let’s get to the predictions:
AL West: Anaheim
AL Central: Detroit
AL East: New York
AL Wild Cards: Tampa Bay, Texas
AL Champ: Anaheim
| Author | AL West | AL Central | AL East | AL WC #1 | AL WC #2 | AL Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Duronio | LAA | DET | NYY | TEX | TOR | LAA |
| Bill Petti | LAA | DET | TB | NYY | TEX | LAA |
| Bradley Woodrum | LAA | DET | TB | NYY | TEX | TB |
| Brandon Warne | TEX | DET | NYY | LAA | BOS | TEX |
| Chad Young | LAA | DET | TB | NYY | TEX | TB |
| Chris Benson | TEX | DET | TB | NYY | LAA | TEX |
| Chris Cwik | TEX | DET | NYY | TB | LAA | TEX |
| Dan Wade | LAA | DET | TB | TEX | BOS | LAA |
| Dave Cameron | TEX | DET | NYY | BOS | LAA | TEX |
| David Laurila | LAA | DET | BOS | TB | TEX | LAA |
| Eno Sarris | TEX | DET | TB | BOS | LAA | TEX |
| Jeff Zimmerman | LAA | DET | BOS | TEX | NYY | LAA |
| Jesse Wolfersberger | LAA | DET | TB | TEX | NYY | TB |
| Marc Hulet | TEX | KC | NYY | TB | DET | NYY |
| Mike Axisa | TEX | DET | NYY | LAA | TB | NYY |
| Mike Petriello | LAA | DET | NYY | TEX | BOS | NYY |
| Paul Swydan | TEX | DET | NYY | TB | LAA | TEX |
| Ryan Campbell | LAA | DET | NYY | TEX | BOS | LAA |
| Wendy Thurm | LAA | DET | NYY | TB | TEX | LAA |
| Zach Sanders | LAA | DET | NYY | TB | TEX | LAA |
Only six of our authors have the eventual AL champ coming from the AL East. Texas and Anaheim have changed the power balance of the American League, and along with Detroit’s easiest-path-to-the-playoffs expectation, you can fairly say that neither New York or Boston should be considered any kind of strong favorite to get to the World Series. That’s a nice change for most of the country.
NL West: Arizona
NL Central: Cincinnati
NL East: Philadelphia
NL Wild Cards: Atlanta, St. Louis
NL Champ: Arizona
| Author | NL West | NL Central | NL East | NL WC #1 | NL WC #2 | NL Champ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Duronio | ARZ | CIN | PHI | ATL | STL | ARZ |
| Bill Petti | ARZ | CIN | PHI | MIL | STL | CIN |
| Bradley Woodrum | ARZ | STL | PHI | MIL | MIA | PHI |
| Brandon Warne | ARZ | CIN | PHI | STL | WAS | ARZ |
| Chad Young | SF | STL | PHI | CIN | WAS | CIN |
| Chris Benson | ARZ | STL | MIA | PHI | CIN | ARZ |
| Chris Cwik | ARZ | CIN | PHI | MIL | WAS | ARZ |
| Dan Wade | ARZ | CIN | PHI | MIL | MIA | ARZ |
| Dave Cameron | ARZ | CIN | PHI | MIA | STL | MIA |
| David Laurila | SF | CIN | PHI | ATL | MIL | CIN |
| Eno Sarris | SF | CIN | PHI | ATL | ARZ | ATL |
| Jeff Zimmerman | COL | MIL | PHI | ATL | WAS | PHI |
| Jesse Wolfersberger | ARZ | STL | PHI | ATL | CIN | PHI |
| Marc Hulet | SD | CIN | PHI | ATL | ARZ | PHI |
| Mike Axisa | ARZ | MIL | PHI | STL | LAD | MIL |
| Mike Petriello | ARZ | CIN | PHI | MIA | MIL | CIN |
| Paul Swydan | ARZ | STL | WAS | ATL | CIN | ARZ |
| Ryan Campbell | ARZ | MIL | PHI | ATL | CIN | PHI |
| Wendy Thurm | ARZ | MIL | PHI | MIA | SF | ARZ |
| Zach Sanders | ARZ | STL | WAS | MIL | MIA | MIL |
I have to say I’m pretty surprised by the Arizona support here. The NL West is something of a coin toss, and while the Diamondbacks have some nice pieces, I have them comfortably behind Philadelphia, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Atlanta, and Miami in the NL pecking order. And yes, that’s me picking the Marlins to go to the World Series. Commence tomato throwing now.
World Champ: Anaheim
| Author | World Champ |
|---|---|
| Ben Duronio | ARZ |
| Bill Petti | LAA |
| Bradley Woodrum | TB |
| Brandon Warne | TEX |
| Chad Young | TB |
| Chris Benson | TEX |
| Chris Cwik | TEX |
| Dan Wade | LAA |
| Dave Cameron | TEX |
| David Laurila | LAA |
| Eno Sarris | TEX |
| Jeff Zimmerman | LAA |
| Jesse Wolfersberger | TB |
| Marc Hulet | PHI |
| Mike Axisa | NYY |
| Mike Petriello | NYY |
| Paul Swydan | TEX |
| Ryan Campbell | LAA |
| Wendy Thurm | LAA |
| Zach Sanders | LAA |
18 of the 20 authors went with an AL team as the World Champ, with the Angels just edging out the Rangers as the most selected winner. It appears that everyone expects the AL West to be an absolute dogfight this year.
And finally, the awards. There was some agreement on the pool of players likely to win, but within those pools, no real favorites emerged. You could make a good case for a lot of people for most of the awards, and if you’re David Laurila, you can make a case for Jay Bruce and Ricky Romero as NL MVP and AL Cy Young winner respectively. Dude is going to look like a genius if those happen.
AL MVP: Albert Pujols
AL Cy Young: Felix Hernandez
AL Rookie of the Year: Yu Darvish
NL MVP: Joey Votto
NL Cy Young: Zack Greinke
NL Rookie of the Year: Devin Mesoraco
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Why are Dave’s picks different than his ESPN picks?
I made those ESPN picks weeks ago. These are updated to reflect things like the Chris Carpenter injury.
The important thing is how you’ve done over the years. Why don’t you guys publish you % correct over what, say the last 6 years. How did you do in 2010 or 2011 for that matter.
Guess he changed his mind somewhere along the way?
good question. Well, dave?
WHY IS DAVE NOT ANSWERING?! WHY IS HE WITHHOLDING INFORMATION?!?!!? I SUSPECT SOMETHING SINISTER!!!!
If I were DC and asked to predict the future, I would pick different teams every time. It’s called playing the percentages. Read a book.
OK I read “The Hobbit.” Now what?
Gallardo for NL Cy is a sneaky pick.
Dave, why do you hate the Dodgers, Rockies, Giants, Padres, Cubs, Astros, Brewers, Pirates, Nationals, Braves, Mets, Mariners, Athletics, Royals, Twins, White Sox, Indians, Rays, Jays, and Orioles? You biased pr*ck!
Man, it’s weird seeing Pujols next to the words ‘AL MVP’
Because he’s so old?
No, because he’s usually in the NL
marc hulet is pretty bold…he picked KC and SD to win there divisions..hmm i wonder if prospect rankings and knowledge of that kinda of stuff played into that. also montero and pastornicky for ROYS is different than most…so is kemp
I guess Hulet thought he was still ranking the team’s minor leagues.
More guys pick Madison Bumgarner (4) to win the Cy Young over me.
you guys are trying too hard.
bravo. FG writers trying to outthink and/or outsmart the masses it seems
Yeah. The fact is that the Cy Young is still voted on by the BBWAA.
No poop.
Winter is coming.
*throws a tomato*
By my count 11 authors think St. Louis will go to the playoffs , while only 8 think Atlanta will. Seems to me you’re doing the wildcard tabulation wrong.
Or division and wild card are two different things.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conditional_probability
Well, there are 8 prediction that the Braves will be WC1 and there are 2 predictions the Cards will be along with 6 predictions that the Cards will be Central winners. However, in only 3 of those cases can you assume that the writer believe the Cards will win WC1 if they don’t win the Central (the 3 cases where they list another Central team as WC1). In the other 3 cases, you cannot assume that the writer believes the Cards will win more games than the WC1, so adding those would be incorrect. Further, I have no idea why you think the WC2 selections of the Cards bolster their ranking for WC1. If they wanted to determine winners based on just an average of the writers’ perceptions, they should have just given a win total for each team, averaged them, and determined who the division winners and wild cards would be.
so basically 5/17 people think the Cards will at least win the WC1 if they don’t win the division (with not enough information for the other 3 that think they’ll win the division) and 8/20 people think the Braves will at least win the WC1.
LOL at Marlins winning the World Series (first tomato thrown)!!
Go BRAVES!!!!!!
LOL at 1997 and 2003. Those years were so hilarious.
the Marlins have never lost a post season series in their history. 🙂
nor ever won a division title.
Can someone explain why the Angels are such a favorite? They are very limited in their bats beyond Pujols. And what if Pujols struggles the first month or two to adjust to all the new and better pitching? After all, he isn’t going to be facing the Cubs and Pirates rotations now. It could cost them a couple wins in April & May which could cost them the division in what should be a close race all year with Texas.
’cause it ain’t about Pujols: it’s about that rotation.
because their rotation is as good–if not better–than philly’s last year.
plus the addition of pujols. plus the addition of morales. plus (maybe) swapping trout for wells at some point.
“…he isn’t going to be facing the Cubs and Pirates rotations now”
True, but he will be facing the Mariners and A’s, which aside from King Felix, is pretty much the same thing.
I dunno, Albert has a career .365/.451/.681 line vs. the Pirates. he’ll be hard pressed to match that kind of decimation this year against the A’s and Mariners.
Re: Eno Sarris. I like the idea of Ryan Zimmerman, MVP. (Which is why I’m addressing it.) But, he doesn’t have Washington in the playoffs. Would the voters actually pick him if the Nationals miss out? Now, I think if the Nats DO make the playoffs (a year earlier than most suspect), their best player will have a decent shot at the award, and Zimmerman will very likely be their best player if healthy.
I agree. Would he be deserving? Quite possibly. But I doubt that he can really win it.
If the Nationals do make the playoffs or win the East, it wouldn’t shock me at all to see Zimmerman win NL MVP.
Zimmerman would need dramatically better offense to actually win the MVP. Deserves got nothing to do with it.
zimmerman has terrific counting stats, when healthy. 30+ hr power, 100+ rbi, etc etc are all within reach. he also plays terrific (+10) defense that certainly passes the smell test by traditional standards.
But he’s simply not a real MVP candidate. The BBWAA is not going to award an MVP to a guy who wins the WAR title in the NL because of his high UZR(and that’s the only possible way Zimmerman is going to outWAR the rest of the NL). Hunter Pence, any of St. Louis’ Berkman/Holliday/Freese trio, or even Uggla with a monster HR year or McCann for the Braves would be better darkhorse candidates.
Wendy Thurm couldn’t pick Kershaw, bless her.
She a Giants fan?
she’s a big time SF fan.
Not one vote for Detroit as AL Champs? Heh.
Simply put, this is too much of a mainstream pick.
*Pushes hipster glasses up*
I love all the MadBum picks for Cy Young!
Dave, when you are counting on Harper being called up by?
@Bill Petti,
Do you really think the Reds, Brewers AND Cards will all finish with a better record than the 2nd best NL East team? I find that hard to fathom.
Fathom?
Aren’t you supposed to say “couldn’t possibly fathom”? and then I say something about you not being able to handle the truth and then you say crystal or something?
Arizona to win the NL? Hahahahaha!!! Why? It’s not like they added major pieces, they overachieved their pythag last year, and their best players are due for a bit of regression.
At 36, will Pujols be the oldest MVP ever, or at least other than Bonds*?
Pujols is 32
Evidently your sarcasm detector is turned off.
Love the obligatory * next to Bonds for no reason.
I’m not sure how Bryce Harper will win the ROY after hitting .177 with 8 HR in 250 PA.
Re: My Gamel ROY pick, which everyone has been so kind to ignore — missed that he lost his eligibility. I was trying to be cute — I don’t like the Reds youngsters for hardware this year. Respectability maybe. I’d change my pick to Trevor Bauer.
his ineligibility for the award shouldn’t prevent a voter from voting for him anyway. rafael palmeiro, anyone?
Giants (Posey back and Belt proves himself), Brewers, Phillies. Marlins and Reds wild cards. Brewers to world series led by Gallatdo and Greinke.
Angels, Tigers, Yanks, Blue Jays and Rays wild cards. tigers to world series. Tigers win. Thought that went into this? Hardly any.
And biggest surprise. Mets .500.
surprised to see no one picked pomeranz for NL ROY
He’s my No. 2 behind Bauer.
Just so I have it somewhere prior to “Opening Day”:
TB, DET, TEX, *BOS, *LAA
PHI, CIN, AZ, *MIA, *MIL, *WAS (MIL/WAS tie, play one-game playoff for 2nd WC)
TB over BOS, TEX over DET, TB over TEX (Jennings MVP)
CIN over AZ, MIA over PHI, CIN over MIA (Dat Dude BP MVP)
TB over CIN (Zobrist MVP)
MVPs: Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Upton
CYs: Dan Haren, Cole Hamels
ROY: Matt Moore, Brett Jackson
I’m shocked, SHOCKED! there is no love for the Pirates in that table. :colbert:
I sure understand all the picks for Philadelphia to win the NL East, but no picks for Atlanta and several for Washington and Miami. What am I missing?