FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: May 9, 2026

One of my biggest regrets in the years I’ve been covering baseball is that I never got John Sterling’s list. You see, in addition to our mutual love of baseball, Sterling shared my appreciation for film noir. I don’t remember how it came up, but I learned of Sterling’s noir kick in the summer of 2023, when Yankees beat writer Chris Kirschner, of The Athletic, suggested I talk to the longtime Yankees radio broadcaster about it. I had never met Sterling before, but the next day in the Yankee Stadium press box dining room, I introduced myself. He was so excited to know that this 27-year-old kid also loved noir, and he immediately asked me what my favorites were. Right away, I rattled off In a Lonely Place, Out of the Past, and Double Indemnity, which looking back on it, must have made me seem like a noir novice, as if I said my three favorite Springsteen songs were “Born to Run,” “Born in the USA,” and “Dancing in the Dark.” But Sterling didn’t think anything of it. Or if he did, he didn’t show it. Instead, his face lit up, and in his baritone voice, he beamed about Bogart and Mitchum and MacMurray. We chatted for a few minutes before I asked him for his recommendations. He had to get back to the booth — it was almost game time — but he told me to come find him next homestand and he’d make a list for me. Unfortunately, I didn’t see him for another month or so, and when I did, I didn’t ask him for the list. We didn’t really know each other, and I didn’t want to bother him with something so trivial. He retired early the next season.
Growing up a Yankees fan from the Hudson Valley, I listened to Sterling for most of my life. His voice is woven into the fabric of my baseball fandom. It’s not a stretch to say that all those years spent listening to him on the radio contributed to my becoming a baseball writer. And yet, when I saw the news that Sterling had died on Monday at age 87, the first thing I thought about was the brief time we spent talking about film noir in front of the press box coffee machine that summer day in 2023. I never got the list, but I did get a wonderful memory. I’ll cherish it forever.
There’s no natural transition to the mailbag from there, so let’s just get to it. This week, we’ll be answering your questions about Austin Hedges’ unexpected hot start at the plate, the most efficient pitchers on a per-pitch basis, teams that register a .500 OBP in a game, and the largest percentage of career stolen bases coming in the shortest span of time. But first, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
The table of Most Efficient Pitchers is wrong. You have the two titles switched
I saw that question about Austin Hedges and immediately thought Jeff Mathis had to have a worse career wRC+ because the wheels seriously fell off at the end. The Rangers gave him 244 PAs in 2019 and he had a wRC+ of 2 that year.
(Wild fact about that: The three worst offensive seasons with a minimum of 200 PAs since integration were all within the last 20 years—in 2008, 2010, and 2019. Mathis is third, just past Tony Pena Jr and Brandon Wood)
If Hedges hangs around through his age 36 season and a team is willing to tolerate his offense that much then I think he could easily move past Mathis. Through age 33 the two are right next to each other on the leaderboard, there is still time. But that’s a lot of ifs there. You need a team that is willing to cooperate to have that many PAs while playing that badly.
And now Patrick Bailey, if the reports are to be believed.
The Guardians seem to have a type….
Oh wow I found out about that trade from this comment.
Maybe Bailey can get hitting tips from Austin Hedges.
Pretty good deal for the Giants to get a comp pick and an interesting pitching prospect for a guy slashing something like .150 / .200 / .200.
He’s undoubtedly had a rough start to the season, but he’s 26 and has averaged 3 WAR per year for the first 3 years of his career.
It will be interesting to see whether the Guardians made a shrewd buy low, or the Giants unloaded a declining asset before his value bottomed out.
This is one of those things where the Guardians have already decided that they’re going to ignore catcher offense and instead go entirely based on catcher defense. And if that’s the case why not go for the best?
I used to think they did this because they don’t like spending resources on any position other than middle infielders. Between Rocchio, Bazzana, Martinez, Ramirez, and Schneeman they’re loaded with guys who came up as middle infielders. But I also now think they just really believe that offense from catchers is optional.
The Guardians recognized that baseball was played with only eight true offensive players as late as 2021. They decided that defense at the catcher position was more valuable than the piddling few more hits Bo Naylor might get. This is a position that I agree with completely and will use Jose Molina as my prime example. I would prefer Russell Martin but he was too good a hitter to fit the requirements.
It might be an easier decision if Naylor was hitting but he was absolutely not.
But you are right, they are very used to elite catcher defense. Roberto Perez and Yan Gomes were also very good defenders. But they also hit more than Hedges has in Cleveland. Almost everyone has.
I do wonder if the Guardians had peak Russell Martin if they would appreciate him. Maybe they would, or maybe they would trade him for two more middle infielders and sign Austin Hedges.
Bailey has a .283 xwOBA and .190 wOBA this year.
Based on xwOBA, his batting line should be approximately the same (or a bit better) than the 70 wRC+ it was last season, when Bailey was a 3.2 fWAR player.
Everyone whose bingo card had “The Guardians trade for Patrick Bailey and option Bo Naylor, with Austin Hedges having a wRC+ that’s more than triple the other two put together”… no. No it didn’t.
The more I think about this, the more I’m coming to understand it from the Guardians perspective.
They clearly place value on the Hedges archetype, and Bailey is younger/cheaper/better in all facets of the game/with a few years of team control Hedges. Allows them to turn the page on the Bo experiment without having to rush Ingle.
I will say – for as much shit as we gave Mike Scioscia over the playing time he gave Mathis…the latter was a 1.5 WAR/650 type over his career, even with the abysmal hitting!
On the one hand, during Mathis’s Angels tenure, didn’t yet have the framing stats to tell us “whoa, he is that good defensively.”
On the other… 3.3 fWAR in 3000 PAs is a lot less than 1.5 WAR/650? Mathis turns out to be surprisingly above replacement, but Hedges has 35 more FRM runs in about 500 fewer innings (not counting the very beginning of Mathis’s career when we didn’t have FRM), as well as a slightly less worse bat.
Hedges’s framing stats are unreal. In 2018 and 2023, he graded as an above average player (positive Off + Def) with wRC+s of 26 and 24.
I’m just not willing to blame Mathis for getting 244 PA with a 2 wRC+ in 2019, ahaha.
If you give him credit for his career average framing in 2007, he put up ~6 fWAR in ~2600 PA from 2007-2018.
Thanks Ben! And everyone! The success rate differential you note for Vaughn is the most amusing thing to me. It’s like he had a month where he discovered he was invisible, and then it wore off.
Odd to also see John Valentin from the 1995 BoSox on the list… but still rounding to almost nil compared to Juan Soto last season.
Probably my favorite comment ever by a manager about one of his players is Aaron Boone saying that he thinks Gleyber Torres thinks he’s invisible out there sometimes. Which, actually, kind of tracks.
I knew the Bill Bergen answer and felt as smug as if I’d gotten David’s Sunday trivia (which I basically never get).
Hedges is being too productive at the plate this year, so they had to trade for a catcher who is fulfilling the Guardians catcher archetype of elite behind the plate and abysmal at the plate.
Heartwarming story about noir. How can anyone judge you for loving those three films? I think Out of the Past and Double Indemnity are among the true masterpieces of cinema, regardless of genre! And who can gainsay anyone for loving a Nicholas Ray film? Now, throw in something like Pursued or Shock Corridor or Dark Waters or Stage Fright or Moonrise, and you can get a real nerdy convo going!
Or the ultimate hipster conversation gambit: “In a Lonely Place was great, but the plot of the book is so much darker.”
Rafael Belliard slugged .259 over his career. I should like very much to see video and hear the commentator calls for his two career home runs.
His second home run is on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m90UvBZ3aKU
Amazing! Thank you.
Hey Ben Clemens – “I just laughed a little about the thought of Mo Vaughn stealing bases and then moved on.” I see what you did there, Ben; “Mo Vaughn” = “move on”.
“I have no memory of the month where Mo Vaughn randomly decided to become a huge (literally) stolen base threat”
LOL
Not real baseball, but the most amazing concentration of steals in a short time happened in Microleague, 1994. Utah Utes utility player Zeus Bernsen was on the roster all year, had 129 at bats. He stole 3 bases that year. All three happened in a single inning, he stole second and third. Then home on the front end of a double steal.
Cringed when I saw Doug Flynn’s name on the worst hitter’s list. Didn’t know it at the time but he almost single-handedly prevented the early 80’s expos from being a wagon
By the way, who answered the Austin Hedges question? Somehow the Dunkachino shout-out made me assume it was Kiri, but it’s not attributed.
I had never seen that clip before, and like old Al, never want to again. 😉 😉
My assumption in these mailbags has been when an answer has no attribution, the author is Matt Martell.
Funny how Rey Ordonez made two of the lists in this mailbag.
That Al Pacino Dunkin commercial, which I am only now seeing for the first time, may change my life in very real and profound ways that I do not yet fully understand
Hey Matt — your discussion of Austin Hedges got me thinking about my second favorite player of all time, Mark Belanger (Brooksie is my favorite — best left side of an infield ever by far). The Blade had 40.9 WAR but only a .580 OPS. That has to make him one of the best, if not the best, “good field no hit” players in baseball history. Could we get a top 10?
If you wanted to just kind of peruse, you could pull up the Career FG leaderboard and sort by Def to get a list of the best defensive players of all-time. Of course, many were also much better hitters than Belanger (career 71 wRC+), but there are some pretty poor hitters with high career WAR totals.
Using wRC+ rather than OPS (Belanger played through such a low offense era, you’d want to account for that) and throwing out guys from the 1800s:
Luis Aparico 83 wRC+, 49.1 fWAR
Rabbit Maranville 83, 43.1 – he’s in the HOF
Jose Molina – 64, 19.9
Vizquel – 83, 42.5
Bob Boone – 82, 31.9
It’s funny – every team wanted a slick-fielding SS at any expense in the 60’s and 70’s. The problem is none of them were anywhere near the fielder that Belanger was even though they were just as poor with the bat. The list of guys who got lots of playing time at SS in that era with horrendous bats is lengthy. Just from this article there is Hal Lanier but there are so many.
If you run a search from 1960-1979 with Primary Position as SS, and set the min at 2,000 PA, there are 66 guys. Only 9 of them had a wRC+ above 100. Meanwhile, 34 of them had wRC+ under 80 and an even 20 of them were below Belanger’s career 71. A total of 58 of them had negative Off totals.
Run the same search from 2006-2025, you get 94 guys, 31 of which have wRC+ of 100 or better and only 6 of whom had a worse wRC+ than Belanger’s 71.