FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: September 19, 2026
The most exciting story as we approach the final week of the regular season is, at least by my accounting, the race for first place in the American League Central. On one side, we have the Chicago White Sox, a team that two years ago broke the modern record for the most losses in a season. Their outlook entering this season reflected their recent history. On Opening Day, Chicago had the worst playoff odds in the AL, with a 1.2% chance of making the playoffs, a 0.6% chance of winning the division, and a 0.1% chance of securing a first-round bye. And yet: The White Sox held at least a share of the division lead for 96 days this year, including a 73-day stretch from the start of play on July 5 until the end of the day Wednesday, when the Cleveland Guardians won the rubber match of a three-game set against the South Siders.
Unlike Chicago, Cleveland has seven playoff berths, including six division titles, in the past 10 years. The Guardians are winning the same way they always do, with excellent pitching, defense, and baserunning. Now, their lineup is deeper than it’s been at any point in the 2020s, though it’s still not exactly good.
In Wednesday’s game, the Sox had a one-run lead over the Guards, who were batting in the bottom of the sixth with a runner on first, two out, and Austin Hedges — he of the lifetime 54 wRC+ — at the plate against the left-handed Hagen Smith, who had relieved lefty starter Anthony Kay the previous inning. Hedges walked, prompting White Sox manager Will Venable to replace Smith with yet another lefty, Sean Newcomb. Up next for Cleveland was backup center fielder Petey Halpin, a left-handed hitter who was in the lineup for the injured lefty killer Angel Martínez. Halpin entered the game 1-for-35 on the season against southpaws, and though he did record a single in his first at-bat against Kay, what happened next still ranks among the most unexpected events of the 2026 campaign. Facing a 3-1 count, Halpin turned on a belt-high sinker and launched a no-doubt three-run homer to put the Guardians on top for good.
Matt is the associate editor of FanGraphs. Previously, he was the baseball editor at Sports Illustrated. His work has appeared in The New York Times, Men’s Health, Baseball Prospectus, and Lindy’s Sports Magazine. Follow him on Twitter @ByMattMartell and Blue Sky @mattmartell.bsky.social.
Eliminating the batting order would have more effect in late, close games. Especially extra innings.
Say the Phillies are at home and get the Manfred Man to third with one out in extra innings. Assuming both are available, I’d say they would rather have Luis Arraez come up than Kyle Schwarber because a home run gets you no more than a single and a strikeout is much worse than any batted ball that gives the runner a chance to score.
This is one of the interesting parts to me.
You might have two roughly equal hitters but one is the more obvious choice in a given situation.
Or, the choice isn’t obvious, but it still has to be made.
Doesn’t the opposing manager walk Arraez?
but in late game situations, don’t you put arraez up to bat, thereby making him the manfred man?
Have always been kind of curious how much of regular season success comes down to streaking.
By my count the 2023 Brewers were at…L6 (x2), L4, L3 (x5), W3 (x7), W4 (x4), W6 and W9 for 83 of their 162 games streaking (51.2%) In those 83 games streaking they went 52 W – 31 L (.627 W%) leaving a 40 W – 39 L record (.506 W%) for the games in between.
The 2024 Brewers were at…L3 (x10), W3 (x6), W4 (x3), W5 (x4), and W6 for 86 of their 162 games streaking (53.1%). In those 86 games they went 56 W – 30 L (.651 W%) leaving a 37 W – 39 L record (.487 W%) for the games in between.
The 2025 Brewers were at…L4 (x2), L3 (x6), W3 (x8), W4 (x3), W8, W11, and W14 for 95 of their 162 games streaking (58.6%). In those 95 games streaking they went 69 W – 26 L (.726 W%) leaving a 28 W – 39 L record (.418 W%) for the games in between.
So far this year’s Brewers are at…L6, L4, L3 (x3), W3 (x10), W4 (x7), and W5 (x3) for 92 of their 154 games streaking (59.7%). In those 92 games streaking they have gone 73 W – 19 L (.793 W%) leaving a 23 W – 39 L record (.371 W%) for the games in between.
Looks like the Brewers elite run prevention unit (87 ERA- and 3.94 RA/G since 2023 are MLB best ahead of PHI 90 ERA- and SDP 4.03 RA/G) has helped them avoid long losing streaks for the duration, while the offense stepping up these last two years 108 wRC+ (t-4th) and 5.08 R/G (2nd) compared to the 2023-24 editions at 99 wRC+ (18th) and 4.65 R/G (12th) has helped them string together winning streaks with increasing frequency.
Just need to put together 11 wins one of these postseasons.
Fantastic overview
It’s interesting that neither of the teams with the two longest winning streaks (Cleveland 22 in 2017, Athletics 20 in 2002) had the best record. And yes, we’re ignoring the “win streaks with a tie” caveat.
My weird personal factoid is that I saw wins in BOTH of those streaks.
Where was Walk Off Wilmer?
“Alternatively, I could see teams just frontloading their lineups to make sure their best hitters get as many turns as possible.”
There’s no reason to even consider doing this until like, the 7th inning at very earliest right? Like everyone’s guaranteed three plate appearances no matter what you do (barring a rain shortened game or whatever), you only need to start worrying about giving players extra turns once you’re down to <9 outs to play for
Hadn’t thought of that
I always defaulted to let the best hitters hit early. But might it make more sense to wait?
What’s the calculus between hitting against a pitcher who isn’t settled in yet, vs one who has already faced 6 hitters?
Might you want your hitters to get their PA’s close together? Would that increase familiarity? If so, would you want your best or worst hitters to do that? Or is it specific to player? Or situation?
I love the possibility of the 9th guy up hitting a home run, rounding the bases, and the manager telling him to just pick up his bat and hit again.
Anarchy! Hell yes!
Considering walk-off counting stats over WAR rates, it may be that Walk-off whizzes may punch above due to opportunity bias: Teams more likely to pass the hero and face the zero.
I agree with the statement that the best way to win in Little League is to have your worst players make the fewest mistakes.
I coached rec league youth basketball for a number of years where we had to play everyone equally. My most successful seasons were when I was able to develop the bottom of the roster to contribute something to the cause.
I always envied the baseball coaches because everyone gets a turn to bat. In basketball, a kid can play a number of minutes but not get an opportunity to shoot. I had to convince them that they were helping even if they weren’t scoring points.
Any time you get a Biff Pocoroba sighting, that’s a good day!
Dioner Navarro!
Kurt Bevacqua also has the best baseball card ever..at least my 6 year old self thought so.
Topps had a bubble gum blowing contest and Bevacqua won and it was immortalized with a baseball card of Bevacqua with a chewing gum bubble as big as his head.
Holy crap! That was a huge bubble!
Also, on the topic of walkoffs it seems worthwhile to mention Oscar “Spongebob” Gonzalez, who in the 2022 playoffs:
– hit a walk off solo home run in the bottom of the 15th inning to win the wild card round for the Guardians
– hit a walk off single in the ALDS beat the Yankees in game 3.
He’s basically out of the league now. Career WAR -0.4 — but two walk offs in one playoffs!
mailbag returns!!! how i missed them (it? what are mailbag’s pronouns?)
I do so love reading replies from Mailbag.
Eliminating the batting order would play hell with relief pitcher choices. How does a manager replace his starter when the opposition has rolled over their order and can pick anyone he wants for the next three hitters? Conversely, LOOGYs might stage a revival, in that managers will know there will be times when the opponent’s best 2-3 hitters are all LHB and having that weapon to neutralize them late has real value.
Agreed, after thinking on the mailbag question for a minute or two I came to the conclusion that rule change would have a significantly larger impact on bullpen usage and decision making vs lineup decisions.
King of the Hill star Kurt Bevacqua. Probably the only way I’d already know a negative WAR guy from the 70s/80s.