Finding a Home for Justin Verlander in Washington

What do you get the team that seemingly has everything? The Washington Nationals have the best pitcher in the National League with Clayton Kershaw on the disabled list. They have two of the best position players in the National League right now in Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon. They have depth in the lineup with the fantastic Daniel Murphy and the rejuvenated Ryan Zimmerman. Their bullpen was terrible about a week ago, and that’s been seemingly solved with the addition of Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle. They already have a playoff spot nearly locked down, with an 11.5 game lead on a division full of sellers. So what do you get the team that’s already set for the playoffs in July? How about Justin Verlander?

We probably wouldn’t be talking about the Nationals adding a pitcher if Stephen Strasburg hadn’t left his last start after two innings. With Max Scherzer followed by Strasburg, then Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark, the Nationals have one of the better top-fours in baseball. Take away fifth starters, and only the Boston Red Sox have a higher projected WAR the rest of the way than the Nationals. That’s a really formidable playoff rotation, and it doesn’t really matter that Joe Ross is out for the year or one of the best teams in baseball is using Edwin Jackson as a starter because they will make the playoffs and the fifth starter doesn’t matter. However, it does matter if Strasburg can’t be counted on, and depending on the potential acquisition, even if he is back, a great third starter could help a lot in the playoffs and next season.

There might be some temptation on Washington’s part to go for a rental. With the team already set for the regular season, a rental’s value is limited to the postseason. How much in prospects and money is a pitcher worth for one game? Assuming the Nationals don’t catch the Dodgers–who are way out in front right now–and the Cubs take control in the NL Central, the Nationals will play the Cubs in the Division Series. The team would certainly like its chances with Scherzer against Jon Lester and Strasburg against Jose Quintana, but Gio Gonzalez and Tanner Roark and Scherzer on three days rest against Quintana, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks isn’t quite as appetizing.

Yu Darvish certainly fits the bill of what the Nationals are looking for, but he might not even be available. After that, Lance Lynn is solid, but not much — if any — upgrade over Gonzalez and Roark. It goes down from there, with Marco Estrada, Jeremy Hellickson and some of the other pitchers available. As for the non-rentals, Sonny Gray is the big name out there, and he would certainly slot in behind Scherzer and provide cost-control over the next two seasons. The same is true of Gerrit Cole, even though he hasn’t been as good this season. Of course, those players are going to be expensive, not in salaries, but in prospects. Assuming Victor Robles is untouchable, and he probably should be–or at least pretty close–the Nationals are going to have to do quite a bit of damage to their system to land a cheap cost-controlled starter. Verlander presents an alternative.

Verlander is owed is around $10 million for the rest of this season and $28 million for each of the two subsequent seasons. That price tag puts the Nationals in a unique position. For a team like the Yankees or the Dodgers to add Verlander, they are going to have pay the competitive balance tax on that salary. Verlander’s salary is already pretty steep, but it might actually be too rich for teams that are way into the tax, especially after this season. Other teams in small or middle-sized markets are unlikely to be willing to take on Verlander’s salary without tax considerations because they don’t want to tie up that much of the payroll for a pitcher’s age-35 and age-36 seasons. That’s where Washington can step in.

The Nationals are not yet in the tax this season, and while it’s possible Verlander’s $10 million will get them close or potentially over by a little bit, the tax burden on the team is not great. As for next season, the Nationals are about to see Jayson Werth’s contract expire and there might be a light at the end of the tunnel for the team’s dispute with the Orioles over television rights fees that could provide the team with a more certain revenue stream. The team could take on almost all of Verlander’s salary next year and still come in right around the competitive tax amount of $197 million to make one more run with the team’s current set of stars.

Washington is not a win-now in 2017 team, and the long-term future is still solid with players like Trea Turner, Rendon, Scherzer, and hopefully Adam Eaton as well as a potential star in Robles. But after 2018, Gonzalez, Harper and Murphy will all be free agents. The trio have put together 9.4 WAR this season, roughly one-third of the Nationals total, so the team’s definitive championship window is 2017-18. Verlander might not be great, but he’s a good pitcher right now, and he’ll still be one next year, even at a high cost. The loss of Ross might not affect the team’s outlook the rest of this year, but it certainly does for next season.

The Detroit Tigers appear to be moving into the future and would like a team to take on Verlander’s salary and provide prospects. There might not be any teams willing to do both, but if there is one, it’s the Nationals. Washington isn’t going to give up Victor Robles for Verlander, but they do have Erick Fedde and Juan Soto, either of whom would make a fine centerpiece in a deal for Verlander. Detroit might have to kick in some money, and a player like Alex Avila might interest the Nationals as well, but it’s hard to find a better fit for both the Nationals and the Tigers than seeing Justin Verlander rejoin Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation. This is a deal that might not happen until August given the salary involved and the questions surrounding Strasburg’s health, but it’s a deal Washington could make even if Strasburg is healthy. If it turns out Strasburg is fine, we could see the best top-of-the-rotation in baseball since the 2011 Phillies gave us Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, and Cole Hamels.