Top of the Order: Mason Miller Lands on the IL Days Before the Deadline
Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
With just four (!!!) days to go until the July 30 trade deadline, let’s round up some more news and developments from the last few days and discuss how these nuggets might affect what happens over the next 96-plus hours. Here’s the latest:
Miller Trade Could Be off the Table Following Injury
All-Star closer Mason Miller, the most tantalizing reliever on the market this deadline season, went down with an unfortunate injury this week, making it more likely that he’ll remain with the A’s for the rest of the year.
After pitching a 1-2-3 inning on Monday night, Miller fractured the fifth metacarpal in his left hand. According to A’s manager Mark Kotsay, Miller was getting treatment when “he was reminded that he had a postgame lift to get in. Out of a little bit of frustration, he just kind of pounded his fist down on a padded training table.” Miller was placed on the IL on Thursday, and there is no timeline for his return. While this is certainly better if he hurt his pitching hand, the injury surely depresses his trade value because he won’t be pitching for at least a few weeks. As a result, Oakland would be wise not to move trade this season; he is under club control through the 2029 season, and the A’s were going to move him only if they were blown away by the return package. Now that his trade value is down, the organization would be better off holding onto him and then shopping him around in the offseason, after his suitors have seen him come back healthy.
Mark Kotsay provided further details on Mason Miller's injury and confirmed he hurt himself in an act of frustration ? pic.twitter.com/A91iODwwEP
— A's on NBCS (@NBCSAthletics) July 26, 2024
The good news for the A’s is that they still have a handful of other trade pieces, such as slugger Brent Rooker and relievers T.J. McFarland, Scott Alexander, Austin Adams, and Lucas Erceg.
Diamondbacks Acquire Lefty Puk in Swap With Marlins
The first trade of the week came last night, when the Diamondbacks acquired lefty A.J. Puk from the Marlins for two prospects, infielder Deyvison De Los Santos and outfielder Andrew Pintar.
Despite never having started before in the majors, Puk began the season in the Miami rotation. This experiment of sorts failed miserably, as the 29-year-old had a 9.22 ERA across 13 2/3 innings as a starter before he landed on the IL with shoulder fatigue in April. He was moved back to the bullpen upon his return three weeks later, and he has been excellent in the familiar role. Over his 28 relief appearances, he has a 2.08 ERA and a 2.42 FIP in 30 1/3 innings.
The Diamondbacks have had one of the shakiest and most overworked bullpens in baseball this season. Their relievers have combined to pitch 403 innings, the fifth most in the majors, and posted a 4.24 ERA, 4.45 FIP, and 0.1 WAR. Puk is under club control for two more years after this one, so trading for him helps bolster the Arizona bullpen both now and in the future.
As Eric Longenhagen and Travis Ice wrote in early May when they ranked De Los Santos 12th on our Diamondbacks prospects list, “De Los Santos has had plus-plus big league raw power since he was 19, but the rest of his game has been sushi raw.” The 21-year-old put up a 202 wRC+ in 38 games at Double-A this season before he advanced to Triple-A, where he’s hit .289/.338/.588 with 14 home runs and a 119 wRC+ over 210 plate appearances across 49 games. Pintar’s development has been delayed by injuries, but at one point he “had a rare power/speed combination for an up-the-middle college draft pick,” per Longenhagen and Ice. He had a 160 wRC+ in A-ball this season but has struggled since moving up to Double-A.
As expected, the Marlins are in full sell mode, and they have plenty of other relievers who could be moved before Tuesday’s 6 p.m. ET deadline. Among their potential bullpen trade pieces are lefties Tanner Scott and Andrew Nardi and righties JT Chargois and Anthony Bender.
How Much Will the Reds Sell?
As this week comes to a close, the Reds are looking to trade at least one of their rental relievers, Justin Wilson, Buck Farmer, or Lucas Sims, according to Ken Rosenthal and C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic.
But, at least for now, Cincinnati is not planning to sell at the deadline. The team’s decision, per Rosenthal and Rosecrans note, is more of a numbers game than anything else. Injured relievers Emilio Pagán and Ian Gibaut will be back before season’s end, and neither can be optioned to the minors. Trading away one or more of the three rentals would elucidate the roster puzzle and create a more seamless transition for Nick Martinez to head back to the bullpen, where he’s performed better this year. (Martinez holds a player option for next year and I’d say it’s currently a toss-up whether or not it’s exercised; he too could be on the move.)
Trading away a reliever or two, or starter Frankie Montas, wouldn’t do a whole lot to bolster the farm system, nor would it change the way the roster is built for 2025. But if the Reds decide to shop second baseman Jonathan India, the team’s future would suddenly look quite different.
India looked like he might be the odd man out in the infield entering spring training, but that was before Cincinnati’s depth on the dirt eroded following Noelvi Marte’s suspension for failing a performance-enhancing drugs test, Christian Encarnacion-Strand’s struggles and subsequent season-ending wrist injury, and Matt McLain’s long-term shoulder injury. As a result, India is once again anchoring the Reds lineup. He is posting his best season (121 wRC+, 2.4 WAR in 94 games) since at least 2021, when he won the NL Rookie of the Year award. Health has been a major reason for his resurgence, but he’s also playing better defense; he’s about average by OAA and FRV, though DRS is still down on him.
If the Reds do choose to trade him, knowing that their injured infielders should be back in time to produce next year, he’d be a good fit for the Yankees, Red Sox, and Mariners.
Crochet Tries to Leverage Trade Market for an Extension
In an unprecedented situation as best I can tell, representatives for White Sox ace Garrett Crochet are telling teams that he won’t pitch for them in the playoffs if they don’t give him an extension. They’ve also said he’d prefer not to pitch in relief.
What remains unclear is how this could or would actually work in practice. Crochet has every right to have and express his preference as to his desired role both in the regular season and the playoffs — if he pitches at all — but he doesn’t actually have a no-trade clause to prevent being traded to a team that would utilize him as it’d please. The most-analogous situation here is what happened with Josh Hader. While he was in Milwaukee, Hader worked with the Brewers to create rules regarding how they could use him. The purpose was to avoid overusing him in such a way that could put him at risk of an injury that would jeopardize his ability to maximize his earnings upon reaching free agency. The difference here is that Crochet, who is represented by the same agency as Hader, doesn’t have the same leverage that Hader did, especially not with just four days to go before the deadline.
The complicated situation, from my view, makes it more likely that the White Sox would hold onto Crochet instead of trading him, because at least some of the teams that might acquire him probably wouldn’t want to cede to the demands of a player who isn’t yet on their roster. Then again, maybe teams won’t care that Crochet is on pace to greatly exceed his previous maximum innings total, deciding it’d be better to let him go the rest of this season as a starter even if that means risking arm fatigue and injuries. These teams may think such a risk is worth it if it improves their rotations and their chances to win it all this year.
The White Sox will remain plenty busy at the trade deadline even if this prevents them from trading Crochet. Luis Robert Jr. and Erick Fedde are their other two most valuable trade pieces. On top of that, the South Siders would be wise to trade away Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Chris Flexen, and John Brebbia, all of whom are set to hit free agency upon the season’s conclusion.
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It seems to me that — if you really wanted to and didn’t play for the A’s — you could pitch an inning with a broken glove hand pinky finger. Depending how you like to wear your glove, there are some options, and you just have to catch the catcher’s return throws in the pocket or web (if your pinky is absorbing any impact, you’re doing it wrong anyway).
Subtext alert – Was Miller already nursing an injury that he was concerned weight lifting would make worse or not help? Did the coaching staff tell him to go do it anyway? Would this happen in a MLB-level organization?
“I need an extension or I won’t pitch in the playoffs” sure seems like a weird way of saying:
“My arm is starting to hurt and I need to cash in quickly before I turn back into a pumpkin.”
I don’t have any clue whether his arm is hurt or he’s tired or whatever, but this broadly aligns with the consensus (as far as I can tell) about him: Taking him into the playoffs after barely having pitched in his pro career is an enormous risk because of injury / overuse / strain / fatigue. He’d prefer the organization take on that risk.
Personally, I think he and his agency are doing the right thing. He’s only making $800K this year and the plan was to limit his innings. This goes against the plan. I don’t think he gets it because it’s not going to be easy to give other teams permission to talk to his agent and hammer out a deal in the next few days, but there is no real harm in telling people that’s what he wants.
I mean, he’s probably not too young to remember Matt Harvey.
He would have been in middle or high school when that happened, so you’d hope not, lol.
I’m happy to see his reps doing what they are supposed to do and protecting their client.
It is funny to me that there is any pushback at all from what Crochet is doing. It is a very good idea. That is what he should be doing, and it is absolutely something I love to see
If he hasn’t heard of J.G. Wentworth, then I don’t know what to tell him
Seems Crochet does not understand what collective bargaining agreement he is party to.
Crochet’s trying to do what NBA players sometimes do to avoid going to destinations they don’t want. The difference here is that the NBA has a very strict salary cap and trade rules, and MLB does not.
I don’t know what Crochet’s angle is, but he’s a 25 year old lefty who has already put up 4 wins in 111 IP in his first season as a a starter. If a guy like that came to my team and wanted to sign an extension I’d be all over it. In fact, if he really wants to be extended, the White Sox should look at buying out some of his FA years. If he continues to pitch well, he’d be even more valuable with 4 years of team control than he would with two if they decide to move him later.
Depending on the price, of course. One issue for him is that he is only making $800K this year and even if he threw 180 IP and won the Cy Young, arbitration awards usually only multiply so much.
The White Sox offered an extension and Crochet rejected it, that’s why they want to trade him. I think we can infer that he doesn’t want to sell only 2 of his FA years. Another commenter suggested that he’s looking for Rodon’s contract. So that would be 6/%160M + 2/$25 for his arbitration years. White Sox don’t give more than 5 years to any pitcher. (Last such offer was to Zack Wheeler.)
Don’t think any team would give Crochet 8 years now. If he gets to FA 2.5 years from now at his current level, he might get more than the Rodon deal.
I think he probably didn’t want to stay in Chicago. He’ll take an extension from a contender, though.
I am pretty sure that whatever offer the White Sox think they are holding out for isn’t coming. This reinforces every single worry that a team would have about trading for Crochet. At this point, I would:
1) Shut him down around 130 innings so he doesn’t destroy his value for next year, but where he’s seen as “building up innings” for a team for next year.
2) Trade him in the offseason when innings limits aren’t an issue and contract extensions can be pursued at a more leisurely pace.
I think it’s entirely possible that teams would be okay with a deal like this in theory. The Dodgers are definitely a team like that, just based on the Glasnow trade. I just don’t see how it comes together now.
100%.
I just don’t see how he’ll hold up longterm if he keeps pitching much more this year.
Gonna have to shelve all your Mason Miller hot takes until next deadline. Unless he gets hurt more seriously before then, then we will need different Mason Miller hot takes.
I suppose Crochet could just refuse to show up during the playoffs, but that could have massive long term consequences.