From Votto to Pujols to Chance: The Greatest Decades at First Base

Over the past few weeks, we’ve looked at Mike Trout‘s dominance and how his first eight years stack up compared to the best 10-year periods in history, both by WAR and by offense alone. We’ve done the same on the pitching side, emphasizing Clayton Kershaw’s great run over the last decade-plus. Now, we’ll take the opportunity to do the same at individual positions, starting at first base. The position is known as a power-hitting position, though the reigning leader over the past 10 years has merely good thump. Joey Votto has hit over 30 homers in a season just twice in his career and his 284 long balls aren’t very high up on the all-time leaderboard. Rather, it’s Votto’s high batting average and ability to get on base with a great walk rate that have separated him from his peers and caused him to put up a 151 wRC+ since he started in Cincinnati back in 2007.

Votto’s 48.1 WAR over the last 10 years is the best in the majors among first baseman, though it isn’t his best 10-year period. Here’s how the top-three in 10-year WAR at first base has looked over the last decade:

I tried to make sure that players wouldn’t be eligible for multiple positions over any one period of time, choosing a player’s dominant position over a decade. For example, while Joe Mauer was in the top-three from 2008 to 2017, he played more catcher than first base and should be in the catcher group rather than with the players above. As for what will happen after this year, Votto has about a two-win lead over Paul Goldschmidt since 2011, so he could retain the crown for another year. Goldschmidt seems likely to overtake Votto after the 2021 season, though Freddie Freeman might top them both.

If we go all the way back to 1900, the player who has ended the most seasons as 10-year WAR leader at first base probably isn’t a surprise. The same is true for the player in second place:

Lou Gehrig and Albert Pujols top the charts here, though Gil Hodges was the best first baseman in baseball for quite some time despite never posting gaudy WAR numbers. Players like Ernie Banks, Rod Carew, Willie Stargell, Tony Perez, and Dick Allen all could appear on other position lists, but spent the latter portion of their careers at first base.

As for the best decades of all-time at first base, Gehrig and Pujols are featured a lot on that list, as well:

In the last 120 years, only Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Albert Pujols, and Jeff Bagwell have averaged six wins per year over the course of a decade at first base. To provide some more contemporary names, here’s what the list looks like since 1961:

The only players in the last 50 years with a 10-year WAR at first base higher than Votto’s are either in the Hall of Fame or are no-doubters like Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera. A little lower on the list we see more borderline cases like Todd Helton, Keith Hernandez, Dick Allen, Todd Helton, and Rafael Palmeiro. Votto’s 2019 season certainly didn’t bode well for his future or his case for the Hall, but he’s got an MVP award and a couple more solid seasons might solidify his case.

If you wanted to go all the way back to 1900 and see the top-three players at first base for 10-year WAR, the table below is for you:

And for further reference, here are the first base WAR leaders for players who played enough first base for it to be their dominant position for a decade: