Giancarlo Stanton’s Legs Have Failed Him Again

The mighty Giancarlo Stanton has fallen once again. On Sunday afternoon, the 33-year-old was diagnosed with a Grade 2 strain in his left hamstring, according to Marly Rivera of ESPN. The Yankees placed him on the 10-day injured list, recalling top 100 prospect Oswald Peraza to take his place.

After he crushed a 110-mph double on Saturday afternoon, Stanton returned to the Yankees dugout while Aaron Hicks trotted out to second base. It wouldn’t be the first time the slow-moving slugger was replaced on the bases, so there wasn’t any reason to worry in the moment. Indeed, the DH walked off the field and was greeted with high fives in the dugout, where he remained to watch the game. As it turned out, however, Stanton had requested the pinch runner himself. He recognized the pain in his hamstring and knew immediately that something was wrong. Although Stanton didn’t show any outward signs of pain, it was certainly an awkward play. He thought he’d hit the ball over the fence and only realized he needed to run as he was rounding first.

While Stanton’s decision to prematurely marvel at his handiwork turned out to be a mistake, there’s no reason to blame his poor baserunning for his injury. The unfortunate truth is that Stanton’s legs – his left in particular – are quite injury-prone. He has spent time on the IL with various leg injuries in each of the past five seasons. In 2019, he sprained the PCL in his right knee and missed 72 games. The year after that, it was a left hamstring strain, much like the one he just suffered; he was out for five weeks. In 2021, he lost two weeks to a left quad strain, and last year, he missed 10 days with right ankle inflammation and another month with tendinitis in his left Achilles.

The 6-foot-6 slugger was excellent in the first half last season, swatting 24 bombs in 328 plate appearances before the Achilles injury brought him down. His 127 wRC+ was low by his standards, but so was his .240 BABIP. Meanwhile, his .270 isolated power was at its highest point since his MVP campaign, and his 21% barrel rate was his best in eight years. He earned an All-Star selection for the first time since 2017, and he took home the game’s MVP honors after smacking a truly Stanton-esque blast to erase the NL’s early lead:

It was a different story when Stanton returned in August. His isolated power fell by almost 70 points; his barrel rate dropped by more than 7%. More than half of his batted balls were hit on the ground, and roughly 20% of his fly balls didn’t make it out of the infield. Perhaps worst of all, his strikeout rate climbed to 35.5% – as if he were facing Spencer Strider nearly every at-bat. Esteban Rivera took a close look at Stanton’s swing, explaining how his leg injuries were affecting his performance. Clearly, his poor showing was more than just a slump, but Esteban was confident a healthy Stanton could still be a threat in 2023.

As it turns out, Esteban was right on the money. Stanton got off to another excellent start this season, slugging three doubles and four home runs in his first 13 games. He was hitting the ball hard, too, posting a .403 xwOBA (identical to his mark from 2017) and the highest hard-hit rate of his career. If there was any cause for concern, it was his 3.7% walk rate and resulting .296 OBP. But Stanton didn’t just throw his plate discipline out the window. He was seeing more pitches in the strike zone than usual, and he was swinging at a greater number of those pitches. As a general rule, swinging more often isn’t a good strategy, but when you can make the kind of contact Stanton makes, why wouldn’t you want to make more of it?

Unfortunately, Esteban was also bang on with his title: “At This Point in Giancarlo Stanton’s Career, Health Is the Main Barrier to Success.” Less than a month into the 2023 season, that barrier has already reared its ugly head. Stanton is expected to miss four to six weeks and possibly more. While he has strained his left hamstring before, the injury is more severe this time around. In 2020, he was diagnosed with a Grade 1 strain, which is relatively mild. A Grade 2 strain, however, is a partial tear; it’s more painful than a Grade 1 strain and can lead to loss of strength in the leg. Stanton was expected to miss three to four weeks in 2020 and ended up missing five. A more severe strain could require a longer recovery time, and one has to assume the Yankees will be especially careful not to rush him back. Stanton’s bat will be missed in the middle of the lineup, but it would be short-sighted to bring him back before he’s ready; after all, we’ve seen what happens when he hits without full strength in his legs.

To replace Stanton on the roster, the Yankees have recalled Peraza from Triple-A. The speedy shortstop doesn’t fill the same niche as the hulking slugger, but his call-up softens the blow of losing Stanton. Peraza was terrific in his cup of coffee last September, posting a 10.5% walk rate and 15.8% strikeout rate in 18 games. His power was almost non-existent, but his plate discipline was outstanding. He displayed a masterful understanding of the strike zone, swinging at the right pitches and avoiding the wrong ones:

An 18-game sample is tiny, yet nonetheless, Peraza’s performance showed he’s up for the challenge of facing major league pitching. He still has room to grow, but he’s already spent 116 games at Triple-A, and he should be capable of addressing his weaknesses at the big league level. His plus glove is also ready for the show, and according to his write-up on our Top 100 Prospects list, he’s the best defensive shortstop the Yankees have. He lost the shortstop competition this spring to Anthony Volpe, the only Yankees prospect ranked above him on our Top 100, and it will be interesting to see how Aaron Boone splits time between his two young infielders.

Volpe has been hot over his last few games, and the Yankees surely don’t want to mess with his development. More to the point, he needs reps at short if he’s going to prove he can handle the position long-term. That said, Peraza is a stronger defender there than Volpe, and he’s more valuable at short than anywhere else on the diamond. What’s more, with superior hitters Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu on the roster, it would be hard to justify putting both Volpe and Peraza in the starting lineup. This infield logjam is a champagne problem for the Yankees – their top prospects might take at-bats from their All-Stars, oh heavens! – but still, Boone has some tricky decisions ahead of him.

On the other hand, maybe not. As disappointing as it would be, there’s a good chance Peraza is sent packing in a couple of days to make room for Josh Donaldson. The veteran third baseman suffered a hamstring strain of his own on April 5, and Boone expects him to rejoin the lineup on Wednesday against the Angels. The Yankees skipper plans to reinstate Donaldson at the hot corner, pushing LeMahieu back into a DH/utility role. It’s a shame that an exciting player like Peraza could get sent back down so quickly, but it’s hard to imagine how he’d get enough playing time with Volpe at short, Torres at second, Donaldson at third, and LeMahieu filling in the gaps.

It wasn’t so long ago that Donaldson was exciting too – he earned MVP votes as recently as 2019 – but those days are behind him. He hit .222/.308/.374 last season and got off to an ice-cold start in 2023. His isolated power and hard-hit numbers have been trending downwards since the start of the 2022 season, and his plate discipline began to disintegrate mid-way through the year – perhaps in a failed attempt to regain his lost power:

Considering his track record of excellence, it’s understandable that Boone still has some faith in Donaldson. At the same time, players in their late 30s rarely bounce back after significant down years. In other words, the Yankees really shouldn’t give Donaldson too long of a leash. Without Stanton, the lineup is significantly weaker, and this team can’t afford any dead weight if they’re going to keep up with the powerhouse Rays, the surging Jays, and the pesky Orioles in the highly competitive AL East. The Yankees have the fourth highest wRC+ in the American League, but their 106 mark also happens to be the fourth highest in their own division. Thus, they’ll be eagerly awaiting Stanton’s return, and counting on the rest of the team to step up in the meantime.