Giants Add Mike Leake, Aim to Keep Pace With Dodgers

After a few days of being linked to top-line starting-pitching help like David Price and Cole Hamels — though never showing serious enough interest to land either player — the Giants have gone a less conspicuous route. Although the trade netting them Mike Leake from the Reds for two prospects (one of whom is was at the top of the Giants’ prospect list) only materialized late last night with little forewarning, the Giants have nonetheless added upside and depth to a rotation that has struggled this season. In doing so, they’ve positioned themselves to make a potential run at the division.

And why not? Sitting only a half game back from the Dodgers in the NL West, the Giants are probably closer than a lot of people thought they would be to the top of the standings, and having to go through a Wild Card play-in game isn’t fun. And, with only two of their five regular starters currently possessing ERAs or FIPs under 4.00, San Francisco has gotten to this point largely without the help of most of their pitching staff. With Leake, they’re counting on having a third reliable starter to go with Madison Bumgarner and Chris Heston, which at this point wouldn’t be too much to ask for: just take a look at the Giants’ record when Bumgarner and Heston have started compared to anyone else in the rotation, along with each pitcher’s WAR:

This is a crude but effective way of showing the serious dichotomy between the top and bottom of the Giants rotation. With Leake, the goal is to bridge that production gap, all the while hoping that Matt Cain and Jake Peavy can find some of their former magic during the second half of the season. Tim Hudson, who has pitched only one game out of the bullpen in his entire career, will now be adding to that singular tally as the odd man out.

There’s an upside consideration with Leake as well. He’ll now move from one of the most hitter-friendly parks to one of the most pitcher-friendly, with his ground-ball and limited swing-and-miss skill set lending itself well to the spacious nature of AT&T Park. His total effectiveness (considering he has had to pitch around half of his innings at Great American Ballpark) should cause us to wonder if the Giants might be in store for even better performance than we’ve seen out of Leake the past few years; let us consider a few statistics on the matter.

Leake can best be described as a pitch-to-contact guy: he’s 15th-lowest in K% among qualified starters (16.2%) and 9th-highest in overall contact against (86.1%). Leake may or may not want hitters to hit the ball, but when they do, he’s found a way to make them often do so on the ground, producing an above-average ground ball rate of 51.5%. Leake knows what he’s working with, in other words, and he maximizes those tools because he has to.

The issue with that sort of approach, however, is that you’re going to give up your fair share of home runs, especially when in unfriendly locales. That can best be seen in his career home/road splits related to long balls:

FIP is never going to like Leake because he doesn’t strike many batters out, but we can see the big difference in his ERA on the back of those extra home runs. Whether Leake can recreate the sort of performance we see in his career away split while pitching in San Francisco remains to be seen, but this is part of the reason for getting Leake specifically: the Giants aren’t dumb, and they see the potential for greater success given the change in run environment.

The Giants have paid for that potential success, however. The main prize going to the Reds is Keury Mella, one of the top-ranked prospects in San Francisco’s system. Our own Kiley McDaniel had him fifth on the Giants’ list at the beginning of the season (giving him a 45 FV grade), though he has risen to the top of many midseason lists, largely on the back of increased effectiveness with his secondary pitches. Featuring a fastball that sits in the mid-90s with more if needed, Mella possesses the stuff to move quickly through levels should everything start to come together.

Adam Duvall, a power-only 26-year-old currently in the Pacific Coast League, is the other piece moving to the Reds. He saw a short stint in the majors during the 2014 season, and could be a power bat off the bench for the Reds in the future. Given the way that Cincinnati has operated at the trade deadline, Duvall could be seeing playing time sooner rather than later.

There is one final side to this deal: the Giants have also done Leake a great service, as he’s now ineligible for a qualifying offer this offseason. That will make him a free agent going into his 28th-year season without requiring any accompanying draft-pick compensation, making him a very attractive option for teams in search of a mid-rotation starter. With more payroll opening up for San Francisco once the likes of Tim Lincecum and Tim Hudson end their contracts, San Francisco could theoretically be one of those teams in play for Leake.

Regardless of the specifics of that future free agency, Leake will now help to soothe the Giants’ rotation woes with a skill set well-suited to his new home park. That was no doubt part of the plan for the Giants, who see the possibility of a division win against a now-strengthened Dodgers squad. Los Angeles made their move yesterday toward greater pitching success in the last two months of the season. Now San Francisco has made theirs.