Here Come the Marlins, Somehow

With the proliferation of both professional and amateur coverage, it’s more difficult than ever for something to happen off of the radar. There are simply too many eyes for much of anything to go unnoticed, and in case you’re unconvinced, think about how much you already know about Rhys Hoskins. Thank about how much you’ve already read about Byron Buxton, or about Giancarlo Stanton’s home-run pace. If something happens in baseball, it’s going to generate content. That content will find its way to your computer or phone. You’re connected, so you know what’s going on.

And yet, there’s this one thing. I swear that I’m not pulling your leg, and I know this is true because I triple-checked the numbers. I was as surprised as you are right now. Today is Monday, August 28. Let’s go back to May 28 — that’s a nice, clean, even three months. Who’s been the best team in baseball over the past three months? That’s easy. The Dodgers. Everyone knows that. Who’s been the second-best team in baseball over the past three months? That’s less easy.

Only the Dodgers have had a better record than the Marlins. Sure, that gap is enormous. The Dodgers are way better than the Marlins are. But the Marlins are right there, numbering among the elite. You can forgive yourself if you hadn’t been aware. It took a while for me, myself, and this is my job. But all those Stanton home runs haven’t been taking place in isolation. There’s a whole baseball team around that guy, and it’s fresh off a weekend three-game sweep.

How have the Marlins managed to escape wall-to-wall coverage? Firstly, they’re the Marlins. They always manage to escape wall-to-wall coverage, unless there’s a matter of ownership to discuss. Secondly, that table shows the five best records since May 28. Here are the five worst records through May 27.

It takes a while to shake a first impression. Only the Dodgers have been better for the past three months, but over roughly the first two months, only the Padres were worse. The Marlins were quickly written off, and people generally don’t feel compelled to make an effort to think about them again. People will happily think about Stanton, sure. And they’ll happily think about Jeffrey Loria, in order to come up with new insults. But it seems sometimes like people don’t care to notice the Marlins themselves. And so they play in the shadows, a team without a larger audience.

Watch some recent Marlins highlights, though. Choose a few from the weekend. There are fans, and there’s electricity. There’s something there at least bordering on passion, despite, you know, everything. This isn’t the environment around a team that’s simply playing better baseball. It’s the environment around a team that’s surged into the NL playoff picture. The Marlins are still 4.5 games back of the Rockies, but then, after play on August 10, the gap was 11.5. Five teams in the NL will make the playoffs. The Marlins now rank sixth in the league in playoff odds. Although they’re a clear long shot, it must be acknowledged how much they’ve already done.

And it’s happened out of nowhere. Every team goes through some things, and I understand that. Yet the Marlins’ highest-paid pitcher has been limited to five starts due to injury. Their second-highest-paid pitcher is out the rest of the year due to injury. Their second-highest-paid position player is possibly out the rest of the year due to injury. Their All-Star-candidate first baseman hasn’t played since July 24 due to injury. They traded their closer, and they traded his setup guy. They traded the guy who was supposed to be the everyday shortstop. His replacement is out the rest of the year due to injury.

Furthermore — no team could ever be expected to recover easily from the tragic loss of someone like Jose Fernandez. It’s not even particularly comfortable for me to discuss his death in terms of what it meant for the Marlins pitching staff, because that’s awful, but the fact of the matter is that the Marlins haven’t had much depth. The Marlins this year have had one single pitcher worth more than 1 WAR. The average team has had between four and five. The Marlins rank alone in last by that measure. Here are the seven most recent starting pitchers they have used:

• Dan Straily (the best one)
• Odrisamer Despaigne
• Adam Conley
• Vance Worley
• Justin Nicolino
• Jose Urena
• Chris O’Grady

The Marlins, in short, have played better as they’ve been in worse shape. Using May 28 as the flip date, so to speak, the team wRC+ has improved by 12 points. The team FIP has improved by more than a half-run. As you consider how this has happened, this might be what goes through your head:

Indeed, Stanton has been baseball’s best hitter over the past three months, and he’s outslugged the guy in second place by 110 points. The outfield, again, is what’s carried the Marlins the most, as they’ve combined to rank No. 1 in WAR in the game. The strength of the club is in the combo of Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich. But those guys can’t do everything, and the Marlins have gotten something from almost everyone. The rotation isn’t good, but the bullpen has gotten help from, say, Kyle Barraclough…

…and Drew Steckenrider.

That’s helped to make up for losing A.J. Ramos and David Phelps. It’s been a team effort. I mean, truthfully, it’s been a Giancarlo Stanton effort, but he hasn’t been *completely* alone. The Marlins continue to find a way, when reason would suggest they’re way over their heads.

And in the end, although the Marlins have ground yet to make up, there’s one remaining advantage. The Marlins’ remaining opponents have an average winning percentage of .484. For the Brewers, it’s .500. For the Diamondbacks, it’s .514, and for the Rockies, it’s .520. By our numbers, the Marlins have the third-easiest remaining schedule in baseball, and that doesn’t even include the sweep of the Padres they just wrapped up Sunday. The Marlins have a shot, and beginning September 22, things could get mighty tight, because then they’ll play three games in Arizona, followed by three games in Colorado. The disadvantage is being on the road. The advantage is having the opportunity in the first place.

Maybe the Marlins won’t do it, but the Marlins are trying to do it, and they’ve already gained an awful lot of ground, when it would’ve made enough sense for them to emotionally divest. I get that it can be hard to separate the Marlins from the person who’s in charge of them. I get that that individual might stand as baseball’s single greatest current villain. Yet the Marlins themselves, the actual baseball team, are trying to be a hell of a Cinderella story, despite everything that’s so far thrown out another obstacle. There’s no good reason why these Marlins should be in the race. Stanton hot streak aside, this shouldn’t be a playoff team. They’re working to be one anyhow. And even if they can’t get all the way there, this three-month stretch has been remarkable nevertheless. The Marlins haven’t been better than the Dodgers. No one else has been better than the Marlins.