How Should the Astros Approach Bryce Harper?

Bryce Harper
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

When the Astros face the Phillies in the World Series on Friday, they’ll have their hands full with a team that’s in the middle of a miracle run to the final round of the playoffs. And while Philadelphia’s lineup has plenty of potent hitters in it, if the Astros want to win their second championship in franchise history, they’ll need to have a solid plan to deal with the hottest hitter of the postseason: Bryce Harper.

Just to review: Harper has reached base in all 11 games he’s played in this postseason and collected seven multi-hit games, 11 extra-base hits, five home runs, and a 1.351 OPS that would stand as the eighth best in a single postseason in MLB history. The game-winning home run he hit in Game 5 of the NLCS is already the stuff of legends, earning him NLCS MVP honors.

That we’re seeing Harper at the height of his powers comes as somewhat of a surprise; this season hasn’t been easy for him. An elbow injury suffered in early April relegated him to designated hitting duty for nearly the entire season. An errant fastball from Blake Snell fractured his thumb in late June, costing him two months on the injured list. He wasn’t his normal self after returning from that stint on the sidelines: In 151 plate appearances from August 26 through the end of the season, he posted a meager .227/.325/.352 slash line, good for an 83 wRC+.

Harper’s approach at the plate also underwent some significant changes. It’s unclear whether or not they were brought on by his ailing elbow, but he was more aggressive at the plate this year, to mixed results. The surface-level stats reveal part of the problem; his walk rate dove by nearly six points to 10.8%, close to a career-low for him. His strikeout rate fell by a couple of ticks as well, though not nearly to the same drastic degree. The reason behind the drop in free passes is fairly straightforward: Harper swung more often and increased his contact rate, leading to more plate appearances ending with balls in play.

Bryce Harper, Plate Discipline
Year Swing% O-Swing% Z-Swing% Contact% SwStr%
2012-20 47.0% 30.3% 74.1% 74.0% 12.1%
2021 47.2% 29.4% 74.5% 69.5% 14.1%
2022 55.6% 39.8% 82.5% 73.4% 14.5%
2022 Postseason 64.2% 40.5% 88.9% 69.8% 19.4%

Harper’s 55.6% swing rate was easily a career high for him; he’d surpassed 50% just once before in his career. He wasn’t exactly judicious with that newfound aggression either, with his chase rate and his in-zone swing rate both career highs as well. That approach stands in stark contrast to the even-keeled swing rates of his MVP season in 2021. His aggression has gone to an even greater level in the playoffs, too; he’s taken only two walks in October, one of which was intentional, and the unintentional pass came all the way back in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against the Cardinals.

Within individual at-bats, Harper seems to be getting more swing happy as the matchup progresses.

Bryce Harper, Swing Rate by Count
Count Swing% O-Swing%
First Pitch 50.40% 26.70%
Ahead 54.70% 28.70%
Even 55.50% 33.20%
Behind 56.50% 40.60%
2 Strikes 64.10% 45.00%

He’s swinging often no matter what the count is, though he’s better about avoiding pitches out of the zone earlier in the at-bat and when he’s ahead. What’s even more surprising is his swing rate with two strikes. He’s incredibly aggressive when he’s on the verge of striking out, as if he’s doing everything he can to avoid a backwards K.

Luckily, Harper has managed to put all those additional swings to good use, raising his contact rate by four points, the highest it’s been since 2017. And despite chasing pitches out of the zone much more often, his strikeout rate didn’t suffer any ill effects. His aggression is controlled, ensuring he’s able to do damage on the swings he makes without hurting him too much if he misses. All these adjustments paint a picture of a man on the hunt for pitches out over the plate and who’s confident in his ability to put the ball in play with authority.

A steady diet of pitches just off the plate seems like the likeliest way to counter Harper’s new swing-happy ways. That said, his eye at the plate hasn’t deteriorated — prior to this year, his career walk rate sat over 15% — so if Houston decides to try to avoid giving him anything to hit over the plate, it’s possible he’ll just start spitting on those pitches out of the zone. But it’s worth noting that his contact rate on pitches off the plate increased by more than eight points this year. That kind of out-of-zone contact isn’t ideal; getting Harper to swing and make contact with those pitches would likely wind up being a win for the Astros.

Are there particular areas of the zone Harper isn’t as effective at covering? You can bet the Astros will be keyed in on attacking those zones, too.

Pitches low and away seem to be a trouble spot for Harper, and that’s the exact area Robert Suarez was trying to hit with his sinker in that decisive at-bat in Game 5. He left the fateful pitch a little too elevated, and it drifted into one of Harper’s hot zones. That’s one of the benefits of Harper’s new approach; he was in swing mode during that entire at-bat and fouled off a number of pitches until Suarez made his mistake.

All three teams that faced the Phillies this postseason have tried to locate pitches up and down on the outside corner of the plate when facing Harper. In response, all he’s done is shoot everything to left field. He’s collected nine opposite-field hits this postseason, and three of his home runs have been hit to the left side.

So if the Astros can’t gain an advantage through location, what about attacking him with certain pitch types? Houston’s pitching staff is notorious for heavy breaking ball usage; about a third of their pitches in the regular season were breaking balls, and in the playoffs, that rate has increased to 45%.

Bryce Harper, Pitch Type Splits
Pitch Type Whiff% Z-Contact% O-Swing% Hard Hit% Barrel% wOBA xwOBAcon
Fastballs 24.30% 80.70% 28.80% 53.20% 13.70% 0.411 0.469
Offspeed 32.80% 80.40% 41.30% 43.40% 14.50% 0.302 0.442
Breaking 31.70% 78.80% 41.30% 42.70% 9.30% 0.355 0.427

Unsurprisingly, Harper does extremely well against fastballs and struggles somewhat against the other two pitch types. He’s still dangerous against non-fastballs, especially if they’re left in the zone. About a quarter of the pitches he saw this year were breaking balls, and that rate has stayed the same in the playoffs. Simply based on the pitchers he’s likely to face from the Astros, a team that hasn’t used a left-handed reliever all postseason, he’ll likely see a steady diet of breaking balls, which means he’ll need to use his new controlled aggression to punish any mistakes he sees.

There’s only so much we can glean from less than 50 plate appearances in the playoffs, and there’s no guarantee Harper’s hot streak will continue in the World Series. Still, the Astros will certainly have a plan to beat (or at least contain) Harper, and you can bet that it will probably include plenty of sliders and curveballs located to the outer half of the plate, hoping to take advantage of his new, aggressive approach. Harper has done well to combat the way his previous opponents have tried to attack him; he’s good enough that any plan Houston comes up with could simply end up being moot. Either way, he will face a fascinating test against the best pitching staff in baseball.





Jake Mailhot is a contributor to FanGraphs. A long-suffering Mariners fan, he also writes about them for Lookout Landing. Follow him on Twitter @jakemailhot.

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lavarnway
1 year ago

You could add World Series Champion Will Smith to the roster.

lavarnway
1 year ago
Reply to  kmoser

I know they don’t need him. I’m just over here living in the past, trying to put this postseason’s sadness behind me lol