How Worried Should the White Sox Be?
On May 1, the Twins beat the Rays while the White Sox saw a late-inning comeback attempt against the Angels foiled. There was nothing particularly newsworthy about these games, but they did have a significant impact in the ZiPS projections: for the first time since early 2021, the White Sox were no longer the favorite to win the division.
Before the season started, ZiPS saw the AL Central as Chicago’s to lose, a calculation that was not going against the conventional wisdom. With a 61.9% projected chance of winning the division, ZiPS had the White Sox with the second-best divisional crown probability of any team in baseball on Opening Day, just below the Astros and their 62.8% chance of winning the AL West. And that projection had been even sunnier a month prior. When the lockout ended and we started Hot Stove League II: The Legend of Manfred’s Gold, ZiPS gave the White Sox a 10-game lead in the division and a 70.7% chance of finishing first in the Central. The team ZiPS was most worried about, from the point of view of the Pale Hose, wasn’t the Twins, but the Guardians, a team that didn’t even project to reach the .500 mark.
Amid the flurry of moves leading up to the lockout, Minnesota was very quiet, with Dylan Bundy as the club’s “big” signing. But once the lockout lifted, the Twins got into gear, picking up Sonny Gray, Gio Urshela, Gary Sánchez, Chris Paddack, Emilio Pagán, and Isiah Kiner-Falefa and trading away Josh Donaldson, Taylor Rogers, various prospects, and… Isiah Kiner-Falefa. The Twins also shocked the baseball world by getting Carlos Correa, one of the winter’s prime free agents, to sign a three-year contract worth $105.3 million, with opt-outs.
By the time all the roster shakeups and offseason moves finished, ZiPS had Minnesota’s 13-win shortfall against the White Sox down to just five wins. That’s a respectable cushion, but not one that will provide padding for all butts in all situations. And as I noted above, said cushion was all but gone by the beginning of May, though after two losses by the Twins and a win (and an off-day) for the White Sox, Chicago has narrowly taken back the lead in the projections:
| Team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago White Sox | 85 | 77 | — | .525 | 44.8% | 12.2% | 57.0% | 4.2% |
| Minnesota Twins | 85 | 77 | — | .525 | 41.1% | 12.9% | 53.9% | 2.8% |
| Cleveland Guardians | 80 | 82 | 5 | .494 | 13.1% | 8.0% | 21.1% | 0.7% |
| Detroit Tigers | 71 | 91 | 14 | .438 | 0.8% | 0.6% | 1.4% | 0.0% |
| Kansas City Royals | 68 | 94 | 17 | .420 | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.0% |
Chicago is the very slight favorite right now, but that can hardly be taken as a victory considering it represents basically a quarter-of-a-division crown that has evaporated in the last two months.
Some, but not all of the differences can be attributed to injury. Yoán Moncada was injured the day I ran the projections, though it didn’t look significant at that point. Eloy Jiménez is out as well, likely for a couple of months at least, and Lance Lynn is yet to make a start. Andrew Vaughn, one of the team’s few offensive bright spots, is also out with a bruised hand, though that looks far less serious than Jiménez’s hamstring.
But the Twins have their own recent injuries as well, in Gray, Bailey Ober, Jhon Romero, Miguel Sanó, and now Correa, who left Thursday’s game with a potentially fractured finger on his right hand. You always expect some injuries in the course of play; everyone being healthy isn’t the baseline expectation for anyone being realistic. The White Sox have good pitching depth that’s helped them survive Lynn’s absence and a brief IL stint by Lucas Giolito, but some of the offensive struggles (13th in the AL in runs scored) have to be chalked up to poor planning by the organization, and that’s not something you can attribute to poor luck.
Entering the season with a major hole at second base was a choice, not something fate thrust upon them. I thought at the time of the Craig Kimbrel trade that giving up Nick Madrigal was reasonable, something that many of you disagreed with at the time (and so far, it’s looking like I’m the loser in that debate). But my feelings about that trade would have been very different if you told me in advance that the White Sox were basically going to shout “Pass!” when it came to finding a replacement and would roll with a Leury García/Josh Harrison combination. No team we projected with a winning record had a worse depth chart projection at second entering the season.
Similarly, in right field, our preseason depth charts had the Sox above only two other squads projected to finish above .500. Picking up AJ Pollock was a good development, but the rest of the outfield consisted of two young players who missed a lot of time in 2021 with serious injuries (Jiménez and Luis Robert), Pollock has a lengthy injury history himself, and Vaughn was still a bit of a question mark. It only took a few injuries to stretch the team’s depth in both the infield and outfield.
Baseball’s new playoff system should have the White Sox determined to do more than coast to the divisional crown; with the weakest division winner put into a short wild-card round, ZiPS projected them as being the biggest loser in a 12-team playoff format. The good news is that, despite the problems so far, ZiPS sees Chicago’s decline in rest-of-season roster strength as a small one, from .531 to .527 before the strength of schedule is taken into consideration; the Twins have only improved from .508 to .509. The problem is that the good news is also bad news: ZiPS thinks that the relative strengths of the two teams aren’t drastically different than a month ago and still sees the division as a coin flip. To get the White Sox a comfortable division lead, you now have to think the White Sox are considerably better than their preseason projection.
| White Sox Roster Strength | 2022 Division % |
|---|---|
| .480 | 17.4% |
| .490 | 22.2% |
| .500 | 27.7% |
| .510 | 33.7% |
| .520 | 40.1% |
| .527 (Current Projection) | 44.8% |
| .530 | 46.6% |
| .540 | 53.2% |
| .550 | 59.7% |
| .560 | 66.1% |
| .570 | 72.2% |
| .580 | 77.6% |
In short, the White Sox need to be better than they are now to regain the projected ground they lost. Even with a second wild card, that’s not necessarily a simple fallback position; ZiPS sees the average second AL wild card being an 89-win team and the average AL Central victor an 88-win team. What this means is that the Sox ought to be incentivized to be aggressive rather than reactive. Robinson Canó may be toast, but the chance that he isn’t is certainly worth the risk of a minimum salary. Don’t wait for another team to acquire Ramón Laureano in July before making an underwhelming counter-move; be the team that snags him in the first place, as quickly as possible. Get away from the idea that the contributions from any position are “enough” and adopt the mindset of brutally grabbing any opportunity that arises in the coming months. That’s what the Dodgers do.
The White Sox didn’t expect to be in a tight divisional race in 2022. They are now, and it’s time for them to act like it.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Their curious lack of interest in retaining Rodon also looks pretty bad right now.
Such a self own / unforced error on their part, insane.
It does. But I also think they didn’t like his medicals and were worried about continued sticky stuff crack down?
I guess so, and had kind of given them a pass since they should know his medicals better than anyone else. He sure doesn’t look hurt though.
Even if they weren’t that interested it’s odd not to give him the QO and collect the pick.
I think they were less worried about him *being* hurt than *getting* hurt (which he did with alarming regularity over 6 seasons with the club). I love Carlos, but 2021 was the absolute best case scenario and he *still* was injured and ultimately ineffective down the stretch and into the playoffs. They already have injury-prone guys up and down the lineup, so they probably decided they were at peak capacity for downside risk.
How can it be the best case scenario when he is pitching as well as he did then, and somehow throwing even harder? Wouldn’t best case be him continuing to pitch like he is?
Well, the BEST case scenario would be he wakes up one morning as a young Pedro Martinez; but we’re talking about fantasy baseball – not baseball fantasies – and last year represented the best *likely* outcome for a guy who’s been consistently injured his entire career (and obviously that’s why the Sox moved on).
It’s still too early to know if they got rid of Rodon too early. However, I thought since Rodon’s skills trends were on the rise, it would have been worth it for a “contender” to have those skills on the team.
It’s amazing how the White Sox did pretty much everything right until the 2021 deadline, and then they managed to somehow blow every move / non-move from there on out. I guess signing Graveman looks pretty good.
What do they have that would net Laureano? He’s still inexpensive, so won’t be cheap to acquire.
Sorry I didn’t mean to make this a reply
Eloy maybe? Between him, Vaughn and Abreu they still have an extra bat. Of course him being hurt again doesn’t make it easy.
That shouldn’t be enough since Laureano has been better and healthier, although more cheatery. It would have to be Vaughn and the White Sox shouldn’t do that deal. Or something like the Top 3 prospects which isn’t a good deal for the Sox either. I’m having trouble seeing a fit
You may be right about that. I just don’t see anywhere to deal from except their 1B/DH crew, at least for a major acquisition.
The problem with trading for Laureano is that he’s definitely most valuable in center field, which is definitely Luis Robert’s job. This would also be the problem with trading for Sean Murphy (Grandal), Rafael Devers (Moncada), Josh Bell (Abreu, Vaughn, Eloy, whoever else DHs), Xander Bogaerts (Anderson)…
They need a corner outfielder and a second baseman. They’re in the market for guys like Chad Pinder and Tommy Pham and Cesar Hernandez (ha ha ha).
I would love to see them trade for something like Josh Rojas and/or Jordan Luplow from the Diamondbacks.
Neither are anything special, but they can both be average, 2-WAR players, and Luplow would be a good fourth outfielder. Neither are young (27 and 28), but not old enough to be in decline yet.
Arizona is nowhere near contending yet, but trading for a few useful medium-term prospects is more valuable for them than keeping Rojas and Luplow into their 30s. The problem is that both guys are cheap, so they aren’t going to just give them away.
Maybe Lenyn Sosa and Yoelqui Cespedes? Sosa is hitting really well, while Cespedes is….not. Maybe that’s too much to give up in a system that is already pretty barren?
Counterpoint: the last time the Sox were super aggressive early they traded Tatis for Shields. And the same FO is still (somehow) in charge today. I wonder how that plays into the FOs ‘aggressiveness’.
I still feel that Hahn got full control of the front office only after the decision to trade Eaton, Sale etc. In 2016, Ken Williams was still the face of the Sox front office, even though Hahn had the title of GM. I clearly remember the clubhouse bullshit in 2016 pre-season with “Drake LaRoche is our clubhouse leader” nonsense; where Kenny was the point man.
So I would put the Tatis for Shields on Kenny plate, rather than Hahn. Ken had success in 2005 trading for or signing veterans who outperformed their projections. People like Jermaine Dye, Orlando Hernandez, Freddy Garcia and the like. He tried to recapture that magic again and again with signing and trading for people like Adam Dunn, James Shields etc. It prevented them from doing a proper rebuild.
The present Hahn led front office has had a patchy performance too, but the team performance since 2017 is better than the pre 2016 version of the Sox after the 2008 season (i.e. 2009-2016), where after the rebuild years, the team seems competitive every year. And more importantly there seems to be a coherence to the team build. And you rarely hear from Kenny anymore.
My favorite hobby is to imagine the world in which this trade didn’t happen.
This is one of those reminders that teams shouldn’t take projections for granted. A slump here and an injury there and suddenly you’re three games back instead of three games up.
Because I can’t think about anything in baseball without tying it back to the Reds these days, I’ll note that the Reds also fell into this trap. They traded away some players and picked up a couple new ones, figuring they wouldn’t be especially bad. They figured the die was cast–either way, they’d be a bit worse than .500 either way. But you have to find ways to proof your roster against injuries and downturns unless you’ve already hit rock bottom.
Are all comments going to moderation, or just mine?
I think if you make a bunch of comments in a short period of time then they start getting sent to moderation to make sure you aren’t a spambot, but it seems inconsistent.
I got flagged once saying “you’re posting too fast” but instead everything just went to moderation. It was weird. Maybe it’s trying to tell me something.
Yeah, we’re still trying to balance the spam filter. I try to make sure and approve all comments in my articles as quickly as I can.
One of mine did on this thread, which was odd.
Instigators! Instigators one and all. 😀
Have to wonder how much the new ball/weather is affecting this race so far. CHW’s offense has been suppressed by it far more than any other team, per xSLG-SLG and xwOBA-wOBA, while the twins’ offense is approx league average in missing xwOBA. Meanwhile the Twins’ starting pitching breakouts (Paddack, Ober, Ryan) have improved pretty much entirely by reducing the amount of home runs they give up. If the gopher balls return with the delayed Midwestern summer, the race might end up looking like last year’s.
This kind of makes sense. The White Sox have a ton of players who rely heavily on BABIP and who swing like crazy. Although it hasn’t hurt Tim Anderson so far (partly because he also stopped striking out).
I think it’s been less of getting BABIPed, and more that balls that would be homers all last year are getting caught on the track now. They’re 17th in total HRs and 21st in HR/FB, but it’s not an issue of hard contact, air contact, or hard in the air contact. Per statcast, they’re 1st in barrels per PA, 5th in barrels per batted ball, 3rd in HardHit%, 5th in avg exit velo, 4th in FB/LD exit velo… etc. They’re certainly an aggressive group of hitters but the on-contact data indicates it’s well justified. Harrison & Garcia are subpar at 2B and Engel is playing more than is ideal, but that’s not nearly enough to explain their scoring struggles.
Josh Harrison apparently hits the ball really hard… but either straight up or straight down
Sadtrombone and hating on Tim Anderson, name a better duo.
Huh? That was a pro-Tim Anderson comment? His BABIP is actually down to normalish levels for once (.319) but he’s still hitting .313/.337/.518 because he cut his strikeout rate in half lol
Yeah, this is literally the best Tim Anderson has ever looked in his entire career at the plate. I never thought I’d see the day, and I can’t really wrap my brain around it continuing. But he’s cut his strikeouts in half and he’s showing as much power as he had in his best season, but it’s in an environment where league-wide offense is radically down. Can’t argue with that.
It’s been very interesting to watch; used to be his homers came off mistakes that he pulled. Now he’s taking good pitches outside and hammering them out to right center with regularity. Feels like he’s added half a grade to his hit tool for four consecutive seasons tbh
It’s a joke because he has always been waiting for Tim Anderson to fall apart for many years. I’m sure eventually a thousand hits from now he will be right:)
In fairness, I’ve also been waiting for it to happen. The BABIP is .338 right now, which at least isn’t Cobbian levels anymore.
The offseason was bad. Not extending at least the QO to Rodon was a blunder that I still don’t understand. They are paying Harrison only a half million less than they would have paid Hernandez if they had exercised his option and he is a better ballplayer, even though he was bad in Chicago for two months. They decided they didn’t need more starting pitching and opted for near replacement level depth even though they knew they were going to limit Kopech’s innings and Keuchel looked done for most of last year. All of those things have hurt them so far, as has the bad defense, although the defense was largely expected.
Meanwhile, Minnesota actively got better and Cleveland’s whole starting rotation wasn’t likely to get hurt again. I’m not happy with what they did.
As far as getting help in the form of Laureano, Montas, or similar…with what? Who do the A’s want from the worst farm system in baseball? Trading someone off the MLB roster just trades one problem for another since they don’t have the depth to cover for that.
But it isn’t quite as bad as what it has been. Because of injuries they had to give 10 starts to Keuchel, Velazquez, and Lambert in their first 20 games or so. If that continues, they are in trouble but hopefully it won’t. That exposed the bullpen a little but they should be OK, especially if Bummer figures things out again.
The offense is even more likely to improve. They are 23rd in MLB in wRC+ (up from 27th just a few days ago) but 5th in average EV, and 3rd in both Hard% and Barrel%. They are hitting a lot of balls hard directly at people. There have been lots of tweets along the lines of “that ball had an xBA of .780 and it turned into an out.”
Meanwhile, Cleveland is 6th in wRC+ but 23rd in EV, 24th in Barrel%, and 28th in Hard% Is their offense due for regression? Even if Minnesota’s young starting pitching can continue to pitch better than expected, how many innings can they give them? Ober, Ryan and Winder have never thrown more than 130 IP and that was in 2019.
The long losing streak had me out on the ledge and I’ve still got the window open in case I need to get back out there, but I remain more concerned about post season success than making the post season.
In the offseason I thought they should’ve been trying to pry Ketel Marte away from the Dbacks, maybe using Vaughn since they have one too many 1B/DH types when everyone’s healthy. With Vaughn looking really good, Marte struggling and Eloy hurt, that doesn’t work as well now.
That was what I thought too. Ketel Marte would have been a perfect fit! Not so much now, though.
It’ll be a while before we know who the sellers are aside from the Reds, Nationals, and A’s. Their starting second basemen are Jonathan India (not going anywhere), Cesar Hernandez (been there, done that), and Tony Kemp (not hitting well).
What will the Nationals sell? Corbin? I doubt the A’s sell anyone other than Montas
Josh Bell, definitely. Cesar Hernandez, if he hits. I would have said Nelson Cruz, but he’s had a power outage. It’s not a particularly big group.
For the A’s, I think Sean Murphy could be had for the right price. Montas, obviously. Chad Pinder, if he keeps hitting.
Pinder would fit at 2B for the Sox and wouldn’t cost that much. Murphy would be very costly and I don’t know who’d want to pay that much. Yankees?
Pinder is kind of hitting, I guess. The 40% K rate and 0%(!) BB rate doesn’t scream sustained success.
Pinder would be a minor upgrade at 2B but his versatility makes him useful to a contender without much depth.
The key with Pinder is that you have to hide him against the best right handed pitching. So he’d make the most sense in a division with a bunch of left-handed pitching like the NL West. He’s not an everyday guy but he can help you.
Alright, MikeS, commenter who always talks about the White Sox, at some point you’re going to have to explain whether or not you are White Sox scouting director Mike S. And if so, have Kenny Williams and Rick Hahn forced you to draft so poorly the last 15 years?
I am not. In the last week or so I have made at least one comment disparaging their terrible draft record, especially on hitters. That goes back to every GM since Roland Hemond.
I’m just a life long fan who has watched too many White Sox games and usually disagrees with conventional wisdom on why they are bad, so I get labeled as both a hopeless homer and too hard on them. Sometimes on the same comment.
43 days of no sun since baseball started. it was 45 degrees at wrigley. offense is going to regress favorably.
I think the White Sox management just assumed no one in the division would make any big moves after the lockout ended. (I have no idea why they thought that, other than the Indians being cheap)
Speaking of cheap, the White Sox should absolutely be buying players or prospects by taking on bad contracts. The only thing they have a lot of is money, and they are still $18m below the luxury tax threshold.
Let’s assume the Padres don’t (currently) need to trade Hosmer since he’s hitting. Could the White Sox take Will Myers and Jurickson Profar for basically free?
That puts the Padres $19m under the tax and the White Sox just barely over. Neither guy is that good, but Myers has been ok in LF over the past few years. He, Vaughn, and Abreu can handle 1B/DH/LF, with Profar as a useful utility guy that can play all over.
Myers’ deal is up after this year (club option) and Profar is relatively cheap for 2 more years, so maybe the White Sox have to give up a semi-useful prospect or two. But I would do that in a heartbeat, even with Myers being hurt.
Way back when the rebuild started, Hahn said that was an option while the payroll was low. I can’t recall a time they took on a bad contract to gain prospects even then. I’m all for flexing financial muscle that way. It happens in the NHL all the time.
I don’t really understand how a payroll of $190M is fine, but $210 is impossible. Now is the window! Open it as wide as possible. The only way it makes sense is if they are trying to save in order to sign Giolito after 2023, but I think he is going to the highest bidder, period. Not that he seems unhappy in Chicago, but he seems to be a smart, thoughtful, guy and whenever the subject of an extension comes up he has always said that he knows what his value is and won’t settle for less. If he puts up at least 4 or 5 wins this year and next, that’s going to look something like 5/$150, maybe? Last year, the only guy under 30 coming off a season with at least 2 wins was Rodon and Giolito won’t have the same injury concerns. Zack Wheeler might be the best comp. He got 5/$118 coming off 2 4 win seasons and was the same age, but he hadn’t been as good for as long as Giolito.
Cleveland *is* cheap but they were betting on their farm.
Waaayy too early but it looks like there was some life there that might help…
…and help cheap, the way thdy like it.
Still need a catcher.
Profar is starting LF for San Diego. Why would they give him up without a replacement coming over?
To get rid of Myers’ contract.
Not extending the QO is inexcusable after the season Rodon had
I have never really understood the justification for the contract extensions of 5/$70M for Moncada, 6/$43M for Eloy, and 6/$50 for Luis. Sure you gained one (or two) additional years of team control, but you also pre-paid salaries that would have been league minimum initially, and (likely) cheaper in ARB later on.
I understand the contracts are player friendly, and reflect positively on the organization from a labor stance, but it doesn’t make good baseball or business sense. The Sox should have used those dollars and spend in free agency.
Now, the Sox are facing a similar cliff to the one the Cubs put themselves in a few years ago. Their window is significantly shorter, and the sunk costs are going to prevent them from spending more money (rightfully, or not) going forward.
They probably paid just about what they would in arb overall for Moncada, Eloy maybe not but his was the cheapest anyways, and Robert’s deal was basically superstar insurance. Which it looks like they were very wise to take out.
Well…for one, they’re getting cost surety. One third of the field is now set, regardless of whether they “should” have been cheaper, and if they turn out to be superstars then they’re still getting excess value on a $/win chart.
For another, I’d bet they’ve engendered some goodwill towards those three. Whether that means a discount when they hit free agency, only the players and their agents will know. But they’ve also started to set the perception that their young guys aren’t gonna get dicked around if they’re doing well.
I understand the question, but I think it has turned out well for the White Sox for the most part.
Based on similar guys, I assume Moncada would have gotten something like $7/$14/$20 in arbitration from 2021-2023, though we don’t know what he’ll do this year and we also don’t know how inflation will affect things.
He’s projected as about 2-3 wins this year, so let’s say he would get $30m for one year in 2024 as a 28-year old free agent.
So the White Sox would have paid 500k/7m/14m/20m/30m, which is almost exactly what the deal was for. Plus they get a club option for 2024 at $25m.
Maybe they will have overpaid in retrospect, or maybe they will have saved a lot, given where inflation is going.
Jimenez hasn’t been as good, but his hitting stats might have made for some big arb awards. He might have gotten $7/13/18 from 2022-2024, making his total cost 500k/500k/500k/7m/13m/18m or about $40m vs the $43m he is actually getting. Plus, the club gets two club options at 16.5m and 18.5m.
Assuming he stays healthy and keeps hitting, Robert might have gotten 10/18/25 in arbitration from 2023-2025, which would come to about $55m, just a bit over the 50 he’s getting. But then they would get two $20m options that would save them at least $15m per year (if they went year-by-year for two years).
All in all, the White Sox saved a bunch with Robert (which may be even more given inflation and his trajectory), were about equal with Moncada and may have overpaid slightly for Jimenez.
I don’t think they would take back any of these deals if they could.
I understand and can appreciate that from a total dollar standpoint, but I also think the prepayments gave Jerry and Kenny a convenient excuse to close the purse strings.
Fangraphs has 90 trackers that collect your data. Out of 100 websites I tested, Fangraphs had more than double the amount than the second place website, which somehow was Baseball Reference. Not sure why baseball websites have so many more trackers
Is that why we’re getting an exception error like 3 or 4 times a week now?
This needs an explanation
I hate to say it, but taking a month flyer on Cano seems very wise.
The Red Sox should be more worried than the White Sox. Bloomball ain’t working out so well
They won 92 games last year
Well, they weren’t as good as they were last year and they’re not as bad as they look now.
The three things you can legitimately blame them for was counting on Bobby Dalbec, counting on Michael Wacha, and thinking that Jackie Bradley could be platooned and he’d be okay. And Wacha hasn’t even blown up or anything. Hernandez, Story, Vazquez, and Verdugo all losing their stroke at the same time was not something anyone could predict.
I have watched every game and I do think they are as bad as they look. They are both mismanaged and playing poorly. Half the lineup has looked completely lost at the plate for an extended period of time now, with little adjustments made by Cora or by hitters approach, individually. Also, quite routinely, there has been poor in-game decisions in bullpen management by Cora that have contributed to several losses.
In addition, questionable decisions by Bloom during the abridged offseason, both in moves made and moves not made, have rendered the current team worse than it was the season before. I do give Bloom credit for making substantial strides in rebuilding the depth of the farm system, which was in decrepit shape in the wake of Dombrowski.
Sale’s new problem doesn’t help.
The rotation is pretty thin without him and they’re not hitting enough to bludgeon the opposition.
Both Sox have some thinking to do this month.
As Billy Beane used to say, first two months you see what you have; next two months you work to plug the holes; last two months you make your run.
Of course, that was back when the trade deadline was in august. Not going to be as easy finding sellers in July with twelve playoff slots, less sticky stuff, and a less lively ball. Just figuring out the difference between good players slumping and exposed wannabes is going to to be tougher.
Literally a whole new ballgame.
I agree with everyone saying the Red Sox are in more trouble. With a much harder division that already has 3 other potential playoff teams, their margin for error is almost zero. They are somehow managing to get almost nothing out of their entire outfield, which is sort of impressive in a weird way.
Cleveland wrote the book on that.
All you need to get there is a lot of 4th outfielders.
I’m curious if ZiPs has moved at all on some of the Twins pitching. I know it’s not going to change too much on a month of data, and Bundy has already fallen back to Earth hard in his last two starts. But the rest of the rotation has continued to look more solid than most would have assumed coming into the season. The bullpen has also mostly recovered from some very rocky outings early on. The Twins have mostly managed to get bullpen performance in the top third of the league over the last few years using a lot of pieces that didn’t look like much on paper coming into the season.