The Parallels Between Brad Emaus and Dan Uggla
While the team has made no official announcement, it has become clear this week that the Mets intend to name Rule 5 pick Brad Emaus the starting second baseman. The first indication came on Monday, when the team released Luis Castillo. Then this morning they sent Justin Turner to minor league camp and also informed Daniel Murphy that they’d work him around the diamond in the next few weeks while they play Emaus at second. At this point it’s almost too easy to draw a comparison to another second baseman Rule 5 pick: Dan Uggla.
The similarities start right at the origins of their careers. Both were college players, Uggla from University of Memphis and Emaus from Tulane. Uggla was a 2001 draft pick of the Arizona Diamondbacks. Five years after they drafted him, the Marlins selected him in the Rule 5 draft. Emaus, too, was an 11th round pick. The Blue Jays selected him in the 2007 draft. He didn’t last quite as long in the system, though, as the Mets selected him in the Rule 5 four years later.
While they took different paths through the minors, the results ended up being similar. After a respectable partial season debut in 2001, Uggla struggled during his first full season, producing a .608 OPS between low- and high-A levels. Emaus, though he didn’t perform well following the 2007 draft, hit exceptionally well in high-A ball in 2008, a .843 OPS that included a .380 OBP. Uggla would have to wait a year before a similar breakout, as he produced a .850 OPS, on the strength of a .504 SLG, in high-A ball in 2003.
With the old rules in place, Uggla would have been Rule 5 eligible after that 2003 season, but since it came in A ball there was little chance he’d be selected. He didn’t help his case in 2004, when he struggled after a promotion to AA. Under the old rules Emaus would have been Rule 5 eligible after the 2009 season, but no team would have selected him. His torrid 2008 season earned him a full-season promotion to AA, but he hit just .253/.336/.376 there. It would take another year — well timed, indeed — before Emaus would make his case.
During his first full season in AA, Uggla excelled. In 569 PA he hit .297/.378/.502, which was enough for the Marlins to take a chance. The team had just completed a fire sale and had plenty of open spots. Why not take a chance on an underrated second baseman who had just dominated the Southern League? That obviously worked out for them, as Uggla hit .282/.339/.480 in his debut season and then showed improvement in later seasons. Those five seasons in the bigs ended up netting him a 5-year, $62 million contract with Atlanta this winter.
Emaus’s underwhelming AA performance meant he was to repeat the level in 2010. It didn’t take long before he earned a promotion to AAA. In his first 170 PA he hit .272/.402/.434, showing he was ready to move on. In the Pacific Coast League he was sure to produce even better numbers, and he did not disappoint, hitting .298/.395/.495. It came as something of a surprise that Toronto didn’t protect him in the Rule 5. He was, after all, a 24-year-old infielder who had already produced two outstanding offensive seasons. It was a given that a team would take a chance on him, and the Mets took that opportunity with the 10th pick.
Heading into spring training it appeared uncertain whether Emaus would get his chance to become the next Uggla. The Mets set up a competition for the second base spot that included the veteran Castillo, the versatile Murphy, the farm product Turner, and the adjective-defying Luis Hernandez. But as the Mets find fault in each of the competitors, Emaus has become the clear choice for the job. Starting April 1 in Miami he’ll get his first big league start.
While Emaus and Uggla present similar cases, it’s obviously silly to think that Emaus will necessarily turn out the same way. The Marlins got incredibly lucky with Uggla. He was a 26-year-old who hadn’t yet cracked AAA and who had just two quality seasons under his belt. Still, it’s difficult to ignore the parallels. Maybe the conditions are again ripe in 2011. That would be quite the lucky break for the Mets, a franchise that, as our own Jonah Keri put in his book, The Extra 2%, has an “inability to avoid shooting themselves in the foot.” The new management is supposed to help reverse that. What better way to start than with Emaus?
Joe also writes about the Yankees at River Ave. Blues.
I think AA left Emaus exposed just to give other teams the illusion that he’s not invincible.
then why’d he give jose bautista that contract?
As a favor to the Angels in 2015.
Oh that polarizing contract. I actualy think it was a worthwhile gamble as I think there’s a good chance that Jose Bautista is probably for real as a power bat that provides good defense in a long term sense but the lack of a track record beyond September 2009 is a fact too I suppose.
It sounds trite but if anybody has a good handle on Bautista it is the Blue Jays and I think it is a very good deal if he’s even resonably productive over the life of it.
You speak wise words, SMJ, but it seems that the Bautista contract is one of those things where you can’t convince someone who believes something is bad that they shouldn’t pass judgment yet, no matter what. They’ve formed their opinion, and that’s that.
Brad Emaus is a local person. he’s from a small village of decatur, michigan
A more important question your post should have addressed; how exactly do you pronounce his name?
Ee may us
Not quite, more like E mus, heard it when he was with New Hampshire a 100 times or so.
HIS NAME IS BRAD EMAUS
His name is brad emaus
His name was Robert Paulson
His name was Robert Paulson.
As a big plus he has a great nickname.
Might Emaus (and I believe that’s the correct pronunciation.)
Famous Emaus
its pronounced emaus
“its pronounced emaus”
Thank you for the clarification. I incorrectly thought it was pronounced emaus, but you set me srtaight. I now know that it is pronounced emaus, not emaus; like I originally thought.
I see how their pathes are similar, but what about skill sets? What can we expect out of Emaus offensively and defensively?
pretty similar actually. Bad defence, not great batting average, good patience. Don’t know if Emaus will hit for power in the bigs though
I think Brad Emaus is pretty much the walking epitome of that old Moneyball stereotype. Kind of chunky, works a ton of walks, modest power, defense is secondary.
I don’t think he has Dan Uggla’s natural power but he has a pretty good approach too. I don’t think his ceiling is likely that high but he is probably the Mets’ best option for 2011 at this point.
I cracked up when I saw the title of this article, but then found it pretty interesting.
MY BAD!
I see one major difference between the two.
Uggla AA: 17.8% K%, 8.6% BB% in 981 PA
Emaus AA/AAA: 12.4% K%, 12.6% BB% in 1115 PA
And Emaus has only showed the power in Triple-A, so I doubt that he’ll ever develop power like Uggla has. Those are remarkably different K/BB numbers though.
His isolated power in AA between ’09-’10 was only .131, with 15 homers in 741 PAs. Maybe he can hit 10-12 in a full season? And he did show more power in AA in 2010 in his brief time there.
He can steal some bases too, he swiped 13 in 15 tries last year and overall has 37 steals against 9 times caught.
Yes, but playing in new Shea half his games? Over under is 10.
Emaus=Uggla? How about Beato is the right handed Santana? That was quite a Rule V draftt that the Mets had.
Oh, I hope you’re being hyperbolic. Yes, Pedro Beato was a nice pickup but I think he’s probably an extra pen arm at best. That is valuable but I don’t even know if he has the mix of offerings to ever go beyond being a spot starter/7th inning guy.
i was very disappointed the Jays did not protect him. The only thing I can infer from the fact that they did not is that his defense (2B/3B) and power are not for real. If they are even decent he looks like a very useful bench player at worst.
“Adjective-defying” is a true stroke of genius. My new favorite adjective.
I think AA figured he didn’t have a ceiling worthy of the al east. He may be a decent player, but his defense and offense would be a step back from hill and he isn’t versitile enough to cover multiple positions like Johny Mc. He basically would have rotted away in the jays system since they couldn’t get him enough PA in the majors to make him movable.
He sounds quite a prospect to me but he was left unprotected? AA is pretty good at GMing so maybe there are things we dont know abt Emaus
It looks almost like an anagram for Brad Ausmus. so we have Brad Awesomest and Brad Might Emaus. That’s cool enough for me.
I wish that Emaus had been protected. However, he has not yet shown anything more than medium range pop at this stage. The Las Vegas’ numbers (.298/.395/.495) are nothing special at all, given the context. Emaus’ minor league batting career is more like a lower case Kevin Youkilis. He does appear to have the potential to add more pop, and that is where the hope lies.
Las Vegas team avg 293/359/478. So other then his ability to draw walks he isn’t that good. Jarret Hoffpauir had a pretty similar year and I doubt he will ever be a starter in the majors.
Hoffpauir was a corner OF while Emaus is a 2B/3B. Emaus has a little more leeway if he turns out to be at least a mediocre defender.