Indians Attempt to Go All In, Still Wind Up with Andrew Miller

The recipe goes like this. Take an American League-best 59-42 record and sauté it in a 67-year World Series drought. Chop up a recently revamped, sneakily excellent farm system and add it to the pan, along with some league-worst catcher production and a relatively thin bullpen. Let cook for one trade deadline, pour over the long-term perils of building a team around starting pitching, and season with a touch of championship envy from your neighbors across the street. It’s the perfect recipe for pushing all-in, pulled straight out of the Cleveland Indians cookbook.

Let’s get the details out of the way now. Late last night, Ken Rosenthal broke the Jonathan Lucroy news, which has now fallen apart and is a story all of its own. This morning, Rosenthal broke some more news, as he’s wont to do, regarding Andrew Miller. The Miller news is official — no take-backs! — and the details are as follows:

Indians receive:

• LHP Andrew Miller

Yankees receive:

• OF Clint Frazier (No. 21 prospect on BA’s midseason top 100)
• LHP Justus Sheffield (No. 69)
• RHP Ben Heller
• RHP J.P. Feyereisen

The Indians parted with a definite haul of young talent. Frazier was arguably the best prospect in the system — particularly after dramatically improving his plate discipline over the past year — and profiles as an above-average right fielder as soon as next year, carried by elite bat speed, the potential for plus-plus power, and 80-grade hair. Sheffield is a lefty starter whose seen as more of a high-floor, low-ceiling type, but the floor is still high, as 20-year-old left-handed starters who touch 96 and flash two above-average secondary offerings don’t exactly grow on trees. Heller and Feyereisen are both pop-up relievers who have risen fast through the Indians system. Heller’s minor league numbers are ludicrous, and could be pitching out of the Yankees bullpen before the end of the year. Feyereisen’s a Driveline guy who touches 98 with some command issues. All four pieces could make major league impacts for the Yankees, who have been impressively rebuilt.

It’s a steep price, certainly. It’s also the price to pay to acquire potentially the most valuable trade chip moved at this year’s deadline. Aroldis Chapman is an excellent reliever, and he netted the Yankees a fortune. Miller is every bit the pitcher Chapman is, with an extra dollop of trade value heaped on top. See, the real key here is the extra years of control. The Indians front office has never been keen on acquiring rentals, as Chapman is. Certainly not for the type of package they just gave up. But Miller’s not a rental, not with his two remaining team-friendly years that pay him $9 million. The Indians were already the American League favorites for this season, and now the odds are greater in their favor. Our playoff odds currently give them a 13% chance to win the World Series, trailing only the Cubs. And, perhaps just as important from the Indians’ perspective, the only impending free agents of note are Mike Napoli and Rajai Davis, meaning Cleveland seems poised to enter 2017 among the league’s favorites as well. Where they’ve sold from the future, they’ve also added to the future.

What Miller brings to the Indians is what Miller would bring to any club: perhaps the most dominant high-leverage relief innings in baseball. Since Miller nearly halved his walk rate two-and-a-half years ago and became Andrew Miller, he’s been arguably the most unhittable pitcher in the game. You already have a general sense of the numbers, but sometimes they bear repeating. Over his last 169 innings, he’s struck out 42% of all the batters he’s faced, and he’s walked just 7%, good for the best strikeout-to-walk differential in the sport. The ERA over that time is 1.86. The FIP is 1.82. And this year, Miller’s been better than ever, getting batters to swing at nearly as many balls as they do strikes, leading to career-best strikeout and walk figures.

The roles? The roles don’t particularly matter. Incumbent closer Cody Allen has always been vocal about not caring too much for the ninth inning designation, and preferring to take the ball when he’s asked to get the biggest outs. Miller just played set-up man to Chapman in New York. Neither should have any issue with when they pitch. Miller ought to get the higher-leverage spots and face a higher percentage of lefties; Allen will likely see more of the righties, and perhaps more of the eighth.

It wouldn’t come as a surprise if manager Terry Francona cared less about the inning designation and more about the matchups, though it’s worth pointing out that, despite being a left-handed reliever who throws a slider nearly two-thirds of the time, Miller’s actually been better against righties than lefties. No one’s hitting that slider, no matter where they stand. Allen, with his 12-6 curve, has similarly shown a reverse platoon split throughout his career. It’s probably better to not think of Miller and Allen as a lefty and a righty, but to instead think of them as two dominant relievers, capable of handling any batter of any handedness. Together, they make up the back-end of a bullpen that suddenly projects as baseball’s best, in front of a starting rotation that’s averaged the fifth-highest innings per start. It’s a staff built for the postseason; the Royals with starting pitching.

The Indians didn’t learn about the Lucroy snafu until after agreeing to the Miller trade, indicating that the club would still like to add reinforcements beyond just Miller. They’ve long been linked to Steve Pearce, who would slot well as a lefty-mashing platoon partner with Lonnie Chisenhall in right field, and it’s still possible they add a lesser catcher, though it’s unclear whether any of the rental options on the market provide an upgrade over incumbent Roberto Perez.

As for Miller and the Indians long-term, it’s possible the club could flip Miller in the offseason to recoup some of their prospect losses, but the farm system is still strong, and Miller’s deal already looks like something of a bargain. If any reliever goes soon, it’s more likely to be Allen, who’s currently earning $4.15 million in his first year of arbitration and could get pricy quick. But that’s talk for a later date.

For now, the Indians created a window of contention to span several years when they extended Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Jason Kipnis, Michael Brantley and Carlos Santana to below-market deals quickly after proving themselves as viable major leaguers. That core, alongside pre-arb stars Francisco Lindor and Danny Salazar, have the team’s window wide open not only this year, but for several more to come. Miller is now a part of that equation, for 2016 and beyond. Cleveland’s window is as open as it gets.