Initiating the Cubs’ Next Level
The word we’re supposed to use is “introduced”. As in, the Cubs introduced Joe Maddon on Monday as the team’s new manager. Really, Maddon’s a guy who needs no introduction, and in addition to that, Maddon isn’t a guy you bring in, as an organization, unless you feel like you’re on the verge of something. Maddon isn’t a guy you give five years and $25 million, as an organization, unless you feel like you’re entering a new era. The Cubs didn’t want to get rid of Rick Renteria, but at the same time, this wasn’t an opportunity they could let pass by. As was noted in the days prior to Monday’s press conference:
On Friday, Epstein said Maddon “may be as well-suited as anyone in the industry to manage the challenges that lie ahead of us.”
About those challenges — there are always challenges, for everyone, and there are certainly always challenges in Chicago, but the challenges that lie ahead now are quite different from the challenges that were ahead a few years back when the Cubs overhauled the front office. The idea now is that Maddon can help the team transition from loser to winner, and though that’s what all losers want, the Cubs are in a particular position. Maddon spent a chunk of his press conference talking about the 2015 playoffs. Theo Epstein, at the end of the regular season, also talked about the 2015 playoffs. The Cubs see Joe Maddon as the first step in a new level. The Cubs now intend to be serious about the present. So how far away are the Cubs from looking like a competitive team?
During the season, they won 73 games, which means they lost 89 games, which is too many games. Based on that, the Cubs are a ways away. On the other hand, the Cubs have moved from 61 wins to 66 to 73, so they’re trending in the right direction. Obviously, they’re trending in the right direction. Among those of you who aren’t Cubs fans, you probably know more about the Cubs’ group of young talent than you know about your own team’s collection. This isn’t some kind of secret.
We can examine the 2014 season, in which a handful of young Cubs got their feet wet. Entering the All-Star break, the team was 40-54, third-worst in the National League. Then after that, the roster rallied to go 33-35, which put them in the middle of the pack. The discouraging bit is that the Cubs’ second-half run differential was absolutely terrible, but the encouraging bit is that, in the first half, the Cubs ranked seventh in the NL in team WAR. In the second half, they ranked fifth. That despite having traded away both Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel. The Cubs were a real baseball team down the stretch, and they won more than they lost between August and September.
Yet, while it’s fine to look back, it makes the most sense to look forward, and here we get to start playing with team projections. The World Series ended last week, which means we’re allowed to focus on the season ahead, and we’re already armed here with next-season Steamer projections. We’re also armed with updated team depth charts, and though there are millions of decisions that will get made between right now and opening day 2015, it’s possible to get an idea of where the Cubs stand as constructed.
I have no choice but to deal with overall team WAR. Based on projected team WAR, literally right now, the Nationals and the Dodgers stand out as the two most promising teams in the National League. At the other end, things are considerably more grim for the Padres, Phillies, and Reds. Then you’ve got the in-betweeners. Best among them are the Cardinals and Pirates. Worst among them are the Cubs, but the four teams ahead of them are within one single WAR, meaning they’re all effectively tied. Right now, the Cubs project similar to the Diamondbacks, Marlins, Mets, and Brewers.
It goes without saying that these are all estimates, and you can argue with depth charts or specific projections if you like. Eventually we’re going to fold ZiPS into this, to balance Steamer out, and projections are going to change. Very obviously, rosters are also going to change, some of them quite a lot! But you can see how the Cubs are within striking distance. You don’t have to be a great team to contend for one of the wild-card slots, and the Cubs are a splash away from looking like a .500 team. And the Cubs might not stop at one splash.
Because this is based on projections, this projection doesn’t require that the Cubs get a sudden player breakthrough. Javier Baez is projected for a .280 OBP. Jorge Soler’s projected for 2.5 WAR. Jake Arrieta, probably, is better than his projection. It isn’t crazy to figure the Cubs at this moment are a mid- to high-70s win team, hence that note about the splash. And the Cubs have been linked to top-tier starting pitchers for what feels like the past several months.
Now, not a single thing is guaranteed. Lots of teams want the best starters, and there aren’t enough great starters available to go around. But it would be a disappointment if the Cubs didn’t land Jon Lester or Max Scherzer or even, say, James Shields. Failing that, they could swing a deal. It’s practically a given the Cubs will bring in an impact starting pitcher. They could also land another quality arm, and they might decide that they’re rather fond of Russell Martin. Andrew Friedman is also probably fond of Russell Martin, but if he’s under orders to cut payroll, that might be a difficult move to fold in.
A few years ago, according to Cot’s, the Cubs had an opening-day payroll of about $109 million. The next season, it held steady at $107 million, then last year it dropped to $93 million. It’s reasonable to expect next season’s Cubs to come in around $100 – 110 million, and based on my current estimates, a Cubs 25-man roster right now would be expected to cost something in the vicinity of $60 million. That goes down $5.5 million with a Travis Wood non-tender. It isn’t hard to see how the Cubs could have $40 million to spend. It isn’t hard to see how the Cubs could have $50 million to spend. This is why they’re expected to be so active. They have a roster that’s gotten good enough, they have a whole lot of money available, and many current and coming players are young and cost-controlled. Everything’s in order for the Cubs to get serious.
With one big addition, the Cubs look like an average team. With two big additions and a decent player here or there, the estimate could well push north of 85 wins, and that’s easily contention territory. Even looking like a .500 team could mean contention territory, given a little luck and given one or two young players stepping forward. I’m fully aware of how stupid it sounds to say the Cubs are two or three splashes away from resembling a good team. The same goes for most not-good teams, and some teams are good already. But the Cubs, unlike most not-good teams, are very well positioned to be extremely active in making upgrades, as they’re blessed with both roster and financial flexibility. It would be interesting if you put Jon Lester on the Twins, but Jon Lester’s not signing with the Twins. He could very well sign with the Cubs, and it could very well pay immediate dividends.
The Cubs, at present, are mediocre, with upside. It’s the upside you know so much about. Yet given a genuinely realistic offseason, the Cubs could be damn solid, with upside. The Cubs made something official with the hiring of Joe Maddon. They’re entering a whole new stage, and in this one they actually care about today.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
As a Twins fan, that is sad. The Cubs are where I wish we were.
Patience – we’ll be there soon, hopefully in ’16.
You shouldn’t be that envious, having Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton on the horizon.
Is trading Joe Mauer (eating some salary, of course) too close to the unthinkable?
Yeah trading Mauer gets complicated, considering he’s a hometown guy and all. I’m not sure he would fetch that great of a return unless a fair amount of his contract is eaten – it’s probably best to just hang on to him with the hopes that he can rebound and become a 3-4 WAR 1b/OF with high OBP.
Chicago doesn’t need a third major league club. Stay in Minnesota.
There is plenty of Reasons to get excited. Jorge “The Sun God” Soler is going to be a beast. Kris Bryant is the best prospect in the last 10 years not named after a fish. then there is an cornucopia of high upside, low bust risk players.
Get excited, get get excited. I said G E T EXC ITED!
You rattle off a couple big prospect names and you leave off the most electrifying prospect in the whole system?! The kiss stealin’, wheelin dealin’, jet-flyin’, limousine ridin’, stylin’ and profilin’ Addison-of-a-bitch Russell!!
Oh you didn’t know??
You better call somebody!!
I’m alarmed by cross-referencing you Road Dogg with Ric Flair and The Rock.
Sigh, I meant you cross-referencing. Stupid grammar follies, this is why I stick to night classes for business.
Conclusory statements! Hooray!
Seriously, please temper your expectations. And point me to an encyclopedia entry for the elusive Buxton-mouthed bass.
Everyone who is ready to crown the Cubs needs to look at the history of acquiring starting pitching in free agency. NOT PRETTY.
The Cubs don’t necessarily have to rely on acquiring an ace type in free agency because of their farm, especially their “surplus” of young MIF talent. If they are left only with the option to deal for a front-line starter, they very likely will.
It’s the opposite. The Cubs would rather spend money on FA pitching than deal assets to acquire it. Epstein said as much this morning on local radio.
Didn’t say the Cubs would prefer to deal prospects for an arm. However, if that’s the only option they’re left with, they have the assets to make a deal, easily.
Yeah but the Cubs don’t necessarily need to get good dollar/WAR value with a big FA pitcher signing because of their resources. They just need to get solid production as they try to build a contender, which makes overpaying for a Lester or Scherzer more sensible for them than it does for say, the Twins or the Royals.
I’m not speaking on the value they’d need to get from an acquisition. Simply pointing out that the Cubs are in a position where largely because of their abundance of young position players, they could go the trade route, where fewer teams would have the resources to match them, as opposed to FA.
Sure, that makes sense to trade surplus for where they are lacking – moving one of their MI’s for a pitcher for instance. It just kind of depends on which players are available via trade or FA – they may not find a quality trading partner at the right price. Trading Baez for one year of J Zimm, for instance, doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me when you could just go out and sign Lester and not give up the prospect.
As a Met fan, I would love to see whom among the Cubs stars in waiting a Rafael Montero and/or Noah Syndergaard could fetch. Heck, I’d dangle Travis D’Arnaud too, with Kevin Plawecki nearly ready to join the big club in Queens.
Who’s ready to crown the Cubs? Certainly not Jeff Sulivan. IMO, the Cubs are not too far off where the Nats were a few of years ago. Their bursting with young high upside talent and adding a vet or two could help stabilize the team enough to put them in a place to CHALLENGE the NL Central, but not necessarily overcome it, or even take the second wild card.
Jeff only said that with two big free agent signings they could be an 85 win team, which is in contention territory with upside to be better. Will they be? Maybe. Personally I think that 83-86 wins sounds just about right for the Cubs next year if they land a two of the top free agent starters.
Yeah good comparison with the Nats. Everyone was down on the Werth signing, but it actually hasn’t been that bad of a contract, plus they had the money to overpay for a few vets to mix in with their young talent. It makes sense for the Cubs to make a few similar calculated overpays.
I should have addressed this in my post, Stuck, but Jeff wrote a very fair article about what could happen if the Cubs make a few big moves and have a bit of luck on their side this year. My point is that signing a top of the rotation guy is not a gurantee that you’re going to get top of the rotation performance. Pitching is not good for your arm, and guys can go from dominant to useless fairly quickly. The cubs projected success comes from the two very risky things to project, prospects acclimating themselves to MLB and being productive their rookie years or second years, and signing pitchers who have a lot of mileage on their arms. Right now they have Rizzo, Castro, Arrieta, a bullpen, and some question marks. I think 2017 is a more realistic year to be looking at being serious contendors for that team.
I see where you’re coming from Tom. But still, I don’t see Lester as being overly risky. His pitch mix doesn’t include a slider, the curve has only been used 16.4% of the time, and he doesn’t have an injury history. No pitcher is a safe bet to sink big money into, but Lester’s reliance on his fourseam, cutter and sinker (they total 75% of his pitches for his career) bodes well. And of course, we’re all assuming the young guys continue to take steps forward and don’t bust, but we all know that that doesn’t happen for everyone, but it doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t project an overall increase in performance based on typical aging and development curves. At the worst, I don’t see the Cubbies being any worse than they were this year, at best I see them contending for a wild card next year. We’ll have to see how a guy like Baez will develop and if they spend wisely in free agency this offseason.
I’m not a Cubs fan, but it’s exciting for even me to think about what could be with a team like this.There’s just too much to like about these guys right now to be pessimistic about them going forward.
Like a lot of pitchers, Lester supinates his forearm when he throws his cutter. So his cutter carries the same risks as throwing a slider.
For what it’s worth, the studies conducted by ASMI, which was founded by Dr. James Andrews, have found that the fastball causes the greatest amount of stress on the elbow and shoulder joints. ASMI has also concluded that pitching with greater velocity increases the risk for a catastophic arm injury. So a pitcher who relies primarily on fastballs, whether they be four-seam, two-seam, or cutters, has a higher risk of injury than a pitcher who throws a lot of change ups and changes speeds frequently.
I had no idea about that BRH. I always thought it was the breaking stuff that caused more arm injuries than an ordinary fastball.
Do you have a link to any of the studies? I want to read more about it in part because a family friend is an orthopedic surgeon and might also be interested in this sort of thing since he works with a lot of younger athletes.
So you believe that Jon Lester and Max Scherzer and James Shields will be bad just because they will have signed free agent contracts?
No, just that they COULD be bad. Signing Scherzer doesn’t mean he’s going to keep producing like Scherzer, nor does it mean he will turn into Tim Lincecum. It’s just a very risky move to sign a pithcer for the amount of money signing Scherzer or Lester is going to require, given how many innings these guys have pitched in their careers to date.
I think the Cubs should (and probably will) expect some reduction in production as the “shirking effect,” or lower production at the beginning of a long-term deal, is a well-supported phenomenon. That said Scherzer and Lester are still very good pitchers. This is a weird situation where the expected production will almost surely be less than the value of the contract, but do the Cubs have any alternatives that allow them to get more production for the money?
who is crowning them?
Dennis Green?
They are who we thought they were!
And we let ’em off the hook!
I think they need to look at how those elite KC prospects of 4 years ago turned out. Bryant and Baez have a lot more in common with Brandon Wood and Chad Hermansen than people want to admit.
As a baseball fan, I really hope the Cubs improve. Their fans are pretty loyal and deserve a winner.
It’s still “Wait til next year” no matter how loudly you shout it.
You have a point, until January.
Straight from the horse’s mouth – I’m predicting the White Sox will be the Chicago team making the big splash in the offseason. They have Abreu and Sale and a weak division, and now would be a good time for them to strike. Like I did when I added Peyton.
Just neighing.
Huh? Weak Division? The White Sox ARE the weak part of that Division!
If you combined the White Sox core (Sale, Quintana, Abreu and Ramirez) with the Twin’s under-25 guys and prospects, you’d basically end up with the 2015 Cubs. For the White Sox to make a big move, they’d have to go the free agent route, which looks like a super-inflated market now. I don’t think they’d have the prospects to trade for an upgrade. There’s no way they could put together a package to get Stanton, but I think the Twins have enough that if they wanted to they could do it.
How in the World is the Cubs’ core on par with Sale/Abreu/Quintana…? Rizzo and Arrieta are both worse than Sale and Abreu, Ramirez is on par with Castro, and Quintana doesn’t have a Cubs equivalent.
I don’t think you can objectively say that Rizzo is worse than Abreu.
AL Central doesn’t look that weak right now. ChiSox might be stuck in lower half of their division for a while….
This is what the #6 Org in baseball should look like
I think Cubs are heading toward a signing of Lester along with a trade for Hamels and Ruiz.
I’m guessing James Shields since Joe Maddon is so familiar with him.
Sign Lester, trade Baez and spare parts for Hamels and all of his contract.
Find a catcher who can hold the plate down until Schwarber is able to be a 5 day-a-week catcher at the MLB level (2-3 years?).
Maybe sign Aoki for RF on a 2 year deal?
They should definitely grab Russell Martin.
Welington Castillo isn’t a bad catcher. They have other areas of need. A short-term outfielder to join Alcantara and Soler, and pitching, pitching, pitching. Rizzo/Bryant/Castro/Baez is set around the infield with Valbuena in reserve come May. Arrieta is a strong start in the rotation, but they need to spend on pitching and another outfielder.
I’m not sure I quite get the love for Martin either. I understand he’s a good player, but he isn’t exponentially better than Castillo, and their numbers as recently as 2013 aren’t far from interchangeable. The Cubs would be better off using those dollars for pitching.
The Cubs are going to need a player or two like him to provide some experience and lead the team. He’s also great defensively and this Cub team is looking pretty weak in that area.
He also brings in pitchers. He’s a selling point for the organization for free agent pitchers.
Actually Martin IS exponentially better than Castillo. Even if you use the crude hammer that is WAR, you’re replacing a 1-win player with a 5-win guy.
That doesn’t even include Martin’s renowned pitch-framing abilities… or the fact that as a highly respected veteran with multiple All-Star games and stints with the high-profile Yankees and Dodgers, he brings a certain clubhouse respect that perhaps a young team could benefit from.
It’d be a pretty big upgrade.
Herb, I agree Martin is a huge upgrade (to add to your point about pitch framing, Castillo ranks as one of the worst in the league). But the “crude hammer of WAR” does not indicate replacing a 5-win player with a 1-win player. Castillo came in at 2.2 WAR this past year and projects for something like 2 going forward. Martin came in at 5.3 WAR but projects for closer to 3 going forward. I hope no one signs Martin expecting him to repeat 2014.
If the Cubs are gonna make it in 2015, they need to bank on drop-off from STL and PIT.
A STL drop off seems pretty likely. Waino, Molina, Lackey, and Holliday a year older. Their young players getting better might offset that but the drop offs that seem to be coming with Waino (just me being pessimistic about his dead arm issues late) and Molina will be huge.
Pittsburgh I’m unsure of.
Why would STL drop off? I think Cub fans like to forget that the #1 farm system was the Cards just a short time ago and that they pulled that off while having a contending team already in place. They also already suffered through injuries to Waino and Molina and a continuing decline from Holliday.
Don’t count out Milwaukee either. They’re going to be good again next year and the Reds are probably better than the Cubs if Votto is his old self.
Well, Shelby Miller just looked lost half the time this year and their best prospect passed away, so…
@ Stringer: Those guys provided very little for them last year too and they still won 90 games. If not for Tavares’ unfortunate demise, the possible loss of Neshek is the only reason they’d fall off at all and they still have a top 10 farm system and $30M to spend this offseason. They’re almost as likely to take a quantum leap as the Cubs and they’re already 18 games better.
There are very good reasons to think the Cardinals might fall off compared to last year, starting with the fact that all of their best players are another year older. It’s not that hard to imagine Holliday and Molina both taking another step backwards or missing significant time to injury. Peralta has a track record of disappearing for seasons at a time. Wainwright and Wacha both have injury concerns.
The team only had three guys in the BA’s top 100 prospects, Tavares, Wong, and Pisciotti. Wong looks like he’ll be a solid major leaguer, but Pisciotti hardly looks like a difference maker. There’s a lot not to like about the near term for the Cardinals. I don’t think they will collapse, but I think that is more likely than them taking some big step forward.
Also, if you loose the #3 prospect in baseball, there’s a good chance you no longer have a top ten system.
Stringer, it’s every bit as likely Miller will improve next year as he will regress, and they had a season full of poor performances and still got 90 wins. All they need is career average performances from a few guys and they’ll be where they were. Add in Jon Lackey and expect some improvement from their new guys, maybe a FA signing or two, and they ought to be every bit as successful as this year.
Ought to be. They’re in no better or worse position than any other team in the NL Central.
It is not hard to imagine Javier Baez being unable to field his position effectively or reach base often enough to avoid being a total bust. It is not hard to imagine Bryant being unable to field 3B and turning into a decent hitting-poor fielding LFer. It is not hard to imagine Addison Russell becoming too big for SS and capping out as a reasonably good 3Bman. Or Albert Almora failing to learn how to hit. Or Kyle Schwarber failing to stick at C. Cubbies fans are experiencing the elation of prospects with limitless potential. Many uber prospects have wound up with disappointing careers. I will hold off on overestimations of the Cubs chances of wild success for now.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is graced with the NL’s version of Mike Trout and a crop of exciting pitchers, and St. Louis keeps churning out All Star starters with no end in sight.
What about me?!
It isn’t fair. I’ve had enough now I want my share.
It’s actually fairly hard to imagine all of Baez, Almora, Schwarber, and Bryant falling flat on their faces, especially Bryant.
Sure, it’s gonna take more than one of them to realize his potential for them to be a contender. Personally I think it’s likely at least half those guys are 3+ WAR players annually. My money would be on Bryant, Soler, Russell to all become above average regulars.
Here’s the list of MLB rookie position players who earned 3 WAR last year: Abreu (special case), Kiermeier, Santana, Hamilton. Two of those guys came out of nowhere, one was already essentially a veteran, and the other was an average regular in CF.
Never said they’d all be 3+ WAR player in their rookie season – but that they likely would become that eventually.
I misunderstood then. Getting 3+ WAR eventually for half of them is about right I’d say. However, if only two of those four guys get to be average MLB regulars, that’s not going to get the Cubs above .500 even with some big pitching pick-ups.
Cub fans seem completely unaware of the high possibility that top prospects don’t play well, not just at first, but ever. None of the top prospects who made the majors last year were anything more than an average MLB starter and most of them were terrible. Do the names Polanco, Tavares (RIP), Singleton, Hamilton, Castellanos and Bradley ring any bells?
Um, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez?
Stroman got 3.3 WAR= average MLB starter. Sanchez got .6 WAR.
Only 31 starters got 3.3 WAR or more last year. And Sanchez would have had more if he’d had more playing time.
Most educated Cubs fans are aware of the high possibility that top prospects may not ever be good. Look no further than the performance of Brett Jackson and Josh Vitters, not to mention the quick end to the pitching trio they had in 2003. I think general Cubs fan excitement stems from Jorge Soler’s good audition, Kris Bryant’s yearlong dominance with little to no struggle, and the fact that they still have several other very highly regarded prospects not including those two. It’s hard to see the Cubs not getting a couple good players out of that group. That’s the excitement you’re seeing.
“Stroman got 3.3 WAR [in 130 IP] = average MLB starter”
So you’re saying that only around a dozen or so starters were above average? Sure, buddy.
I don’t think they will all “fall flat,” but the hype surrounding this group of prospects seems over the top.
Kris Bryant will be a lumbering defensive liability in LF. Bryant will hit and draw walks, but his BABIP has ranged between .370 and .400 at every stop and that seems unlikely to continue in the majors. Bryant’s K% has been consistently between 26% and 29%, and that seems likely to increase a bit.
Soler can hit, but he will also be a defensive liability in a terrible defensive OF.
Javier Baez could be a legen-wait-for-it-dary flop. He refuses to draw walks, he swings at everything, he won’t stick at short. Baez could hit 30 HR and still be a replacement-level player.
Almors cannot hit. Starlin Castro is overrated. Unfortunately, I cannot think of anything bad to say about Anthony Rizzo…
But the interesting thing about the Cubs uber-prospects is that we never hear about any pitchers. CJ Edwards is their big-name pitching prospect?
Meanwhile the Bucs will be bringing up Taillon, Glasnow and Kingham to join Cole, and they have a cheap-but-outstanding OF. The Cards have even more pitching with Martinez and Gonzalez ready to join the rotation.
The Cubs should be better soon, but I don’t get the hype.
I agree with you that both the Pirates and Cards are well-stocked , and will continue to be formidable.
However, you have countered many of the breathless future scenarios about the Cub’s prospects by instead paining every one of them with an absolutely worst-case-scenario.
Your take on Baez is certainly realistic; he and Houston’s Springer are the two strangest uber-prospects to debut in MLB in years, and either or both could collapse. OTOH, there are obvious reasons why Baez is the most talked-about prospect in recent memory, including superstar bat-speed and power.
The other guys you mentioned are like all other big-time prospects: some turn into Cameron Maybin, yes…but others turn into the Trouts and McCutchens of MLB, correct?
The most obvious flaw in your post is not the advice to be be wary of prospects…that’s good advice. It’s the off-the-charts negativity about your take on the defensive skills of the Cub prospects. Bryant and Soler are BOTH considered above-average fielders with cannon arms, and Baez, according to every scouting report ever published, will absolutely stick at SS or 2B.
The thing with the Cubs prospects is their high ceilings. If they all hit their ceilings, we’re talking about the 1927 Yankees. A more realistic upside would be the core of the Jeter-era Yankees, with some big stars, some lesser stars, and some guys who didn’t pan out (ex. Ruben Rivera and Ricky Ledee). The downside might actually be the current Royals core, where Hosmer has been just ordinary, Moustakas has ranged from terrible to acceptable, and Myers has been ok when healthy.
The Pirates’ pitching has two high-upside guys in Cole and Taillon that the Cubs don’t (unless Vizcaino becomes the next Dellin Betances). This, plus their ability to coax turnarounds from borderline pitchers like Volquez, Worley, and Morton should enable them to have an above-average staff for years to come – something the Cubs may need to buy on the FA market.
After reading your analysis on Bryant, Soler, and Almora, it sounds like you’ve never seen them play once in your life. So that could explain why you don’t get the hype.
Did you just miss the part of this piece where it says none of the prospects are really being projected to be that good in this projection (Baez .280 OBP, Soler 2.5 WAR, etc – these are fairly modest projections) and that Arrieta is probably being undersold (presumably due to his pre-2014 numbers)?
None of those guys needs to be great next year for this to turn out the way he’s saying. That is almost the point of this. That’s why he’s saying that if they make a couple of these moves that they have a good chance to make, they can project to a mid-80’s team w/upside (in the possibility that some of the prospects break out in a bigger way than expected). That’s without any crazy positive variance in their favor. Just modest projections.
And, FWIW, I think Jorge Soler is, nevertheless, going to be great.
A mid 70s team, the Cubs are probably about 10 WAR away from being legit. They basically need to buy the equivalent of 3 max scherzers from the free agent market to have a reasonable (>25%) chance of making the playoffs.
If I remember correctly, BaseRuns suggest they were quite a few wins better than their record ended up being. There isn’t much of a reason to believe they wouldn’t be better if things stayed the same. With a couple quality FAs and a rookie or two coming up and showing some promise, they could be in the playoff hunt. The talent is right there on the cusp.
I remembered correctly 79-83 is what baseruns had them at.
The Giants have one good pitcher and a lineup without any Home run power or speed to steal bases and they are the greatest team ever for some reason. The Cubs aren’t that far away
The Cubs’ payroll this year was $93 million, and they have something like $40 million coming off the books with guys like Soriano, Samardzija, Hammel, and Schierholtz leaving. Obviously, some of that comes back with raises, but all told they’re probably on the hook for about $80 million. Their team high for payroll was $145 million in 2010, and since 2010 the league average payroll has gone up $20 million. I think the $50 million available that was suggested in this article is actually very conservative on how much money the Cubs have to play with.
It should be interesting, the severity of the Northside backlash, if the team with Red Sox revenues and a Pirate payroll fails to reach the World Series for the first three or four years of the Maddon Dynasty.
As you’ve intimated, JayT, the Cub money is there to profitably sustain a player payroll of at least $160-170M. Evidence? Let’s look at the Cubs v. the Cardinals — a franchise not at all known as spendthrifts. St. Louis has maintained a payroll in the $110-115M range for the past few years, and due to the general MLB inflation you mentioned has thus slipped from 10th to 14th in player payroll. Therefore, seeing as they do have the 10th-highest revenues, St. Louis is expected to raise payroll to the $130-135M range in the next year or two, to more closely align their profits & payroll.
Compare this to the Cubs. According to Bloomberg, the Cubs’ revenue rivers generate $70M more per year than the Cardinals. The Cardinal owners, a fairly frugal bunch, only field teams that make them plenty of dough. So it stands to reason that the Cubs can easily support a player payroll $60-70M higher than St. Louis — which again is $115M now and headed toward $130M+. Link to the Bloomberg numbers:
http://www.bloomberg.com/infographics/2013-10-23/mlb-team-values.html
The Cubs were a 79 win team according to baseruns the same as the Royals. I’m pretty sure they can get to 85 wins just by adding Bryant and subtracting Edwin Jackson.
The cubs also could have a top 5 bullpen next year. Rondon, Grim, Ramirez, and Strop were amazing down the stretch and overall. You can add to that mix Vizcaino, Riverio, and possibly CJ edwards next year.
I’m guessing the Vegas over/under without any offseason additions will be 81-83 wins. (Cubs are currently ranked 12th-likeliest by the Bovada.com oddsmakers to win the 2015 Fall Classic, at 22-1.) Add just one from among Lester, Scherzer or Shields, and we’re talking 85-87 victories. If anything, Vegas thinks Sully may be selling the baby bears short.
One thing I don’t get, though, is the 2015 Steamer WAR comments re Washington, the Dodgers, and the Cardinals. Jeff stated that Washington and LA “stand out as the two most promising” Senior Circuit squads. But Ben Lindbergh’s very recent Steamer-based Grantland piece shows St. Louis and Washington as easily superior to Los Dodgers in terms of returning talent.
Link:
http://grantland.com/the-triangle/mlb-playoffs-2015-predictions-for-2014-postseason-teams/
Was Lindbergh’s math wrong?
I still think 2015 will be beta mode for a contending Cubs team. The only signal the signing of Joe Maddon states is that when Joe Maddon is available, you get Joe Maddon.
The Cubs best move IMO would be:
-Sign Lester ($6/140?)
-Trade Baez+McKinny to the Mets or Phillies for additional SP
-Non-tender Wood or get rid of Jackson, even if you have to eat lot of $$.
-Sign Colby Rasmus on a 1-2 year rebuild value deal (maybe 1/$7-8M w/ $10M option ($1M buyout?)
-Sign Russell Martin, move Castillo to a reserve role
-Sign Burnett to a 1 year deal
-Sign Morrow to close or lock down/cost-control Neil Ramirez and maybe 1 other core reliever so that moving them to a CL role at some point won’t get them super expensive in arb
I want absolutely nothing to do with AJ Burnett. Nothing.
And while Martin profiles as an upgrade for Castillo, 4/$60 is a lot of dough for an aging catcher coming off a career year.
Reading all of these comments makes me VERY excited to be a Cubs fan right now. A lot of scared Cardinals & Pirates fans hiding behind their computers. Something is brewing up on the North Side, and it isn’t 312…
I embrace the Cubs finally being something other than a last place team. Tired of listening to my whiney Cubfan friends gripe (justifiably so) about willfully finishing in the N.L. Central basement three straight years while turning one of the largest profits in the sport. It’s been pretty nauseating for them.
For me, I’ll fear the Cubs as soon as Ebenezer Ricketts shows any kind of real $$ commitment to the product on the field. Right now he looks like an owner who’s second only to Jeff Loria in prioritizing profits far, far ahead of victories — and it’s a lot harder to win 90 games a year with a bottom-5 payroll than a top-5 one.
Don’t worry guys, the Cubs will win the World Series in 2015………Trust me!!
Some updated 2015 World Series odds at Bovada.com
San Fran 12-1
St. Louis 14-1
Cubbies 16-1
Orioles 16-1
Royals 18-1
Oakland 20-1
Boston 20-1
Yankees 20-1
Pitt 28-1
Cleve 28-1
In total, only 6 teams in all of baseball currently have shorter odds than the baby bears.
I’d be very cautious in projecting the Cubs’ talent. I’ve been following the game long enough to know that highly touted prospects don’t always pan out, and some that do take a couple years at the major league level to develop into decent major leaguers.
I’m particularly concerned about the common assessment that the Cubs’ farm is loaded. The same was said of Theo’s Red Sox, with their can’t miss shortstop, power hitting third baseman and strong outfielders, including a slick center fielder. The major league results were somewhat less than advertised.
As good as Maddon is reputed to be, I think the Cubs should have stuck to their 3-year plan with Renteria, who just might have developed into the steady skipper they could have held onto for 10-15 years. If key prospects don’t develop on schedule, or at all, there could be more disappointment than progress. But that’s part of being a Cubs fan, isn’t it?