Andrelton Simmons Traded to Angels
UPDATE: Angels also getting catcher Jose Briceno. Briceno is 23, and he spent last year in high-A, but he also posted an OPS of .482, and, yes, that’s a 4, and no, that’s not a mistake. Of course, he’s hit better in the past. He’s been a decent prospect in the past. Right now, his career needs to be rescued.
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The day began with thoughts on a potential Andrelton Simmons blockbuster. As the day ends, half of what was discussed has come true — Simmons has been traded, and even to the general Los Angeles area. He just hasn’t been traded to the Dodgers, or for Yasiel Puig.
Rather, Simmons’ new teammates will be the rest of the Angels. And, headed to the Braves in exchange: Erick Aybar, Sean Newcomb, Chris Ellis, and a bit of money.
#Braves trade Simmons to #Angels for Newcomb, Ellis, Aybar and about $3M
— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) November 12, 2015
The money is in there to cancel out the difference between Simmons and Aybar’s 2016 salaries. Beyond that, Aybar will be a free agent, whereas Simmons is under contract through 2020. His future salaries:
- 2016: $6 million
- 2017: $8 million
- 2018: $11 million
- 2019: $13 million
- 2020: $15 million
For the Angels, this is about the shortstop position both short-term and long-term. In the short-term, while Simmons is younger than Aybar, they project to hit about the same. But the defensive difference is made evident by this table, comparing Inside Edge fielding results. What you see are rates of plays made on opportunities in different categories, separated by difficulty.

| Player | Remote | Unlikely | Even | Likely | Routine |
| Simmons | 9.3% | 45.1% | 73.8% | 81.9% | 99.0% |
| Aybar | 0.6% | 27.6% | 42.9% | 74.8% | 96.5% |
Simmons leads everywhere, which of course shouldn’t be a surprise, because Simmons is considered perhaps the best overall defensive player in the game, while Aybar is more of a bat-first shortstop who didn’t hit in the most recent season. So Simmons makes the Angels better now, and he gives them another long-term core piece who’s never going to be a true financial albatross. Simmons, to this point, hasn’t really hit. His career wRC+ is 84, and he peaked as a rookie. But as much as some people complain that defensive stats are unreliable, there’s no question about what Simmons can do, and about how much he can help. He’s not a player who looks good in the numbers, only. He’s a player who’s obviously good, and though his defense will decline with age, it’s not going to drop off a cliff in the next five years. At least, there’s no reason to expect that.
But you don’t need to be convinced that Simmons is an upgrade over Aybar. The Angels are paying a real cost here, in the form of their top two pitching prospects. Newcomb is a 22-year-old lefty who reached Double-A. Ellis is a 23-year-old righty who also reached Double-A. Newcomb was picked in the first round two years ago, while Ellis was picked in the third.
The Angels do have some decent rotation depth. Garrett Richards is controlled through 2018. Tyler Skaggs, 2019. Matt Shoemaker, 2020. Andrew Heaney and Nicholas Tropeano, 2021. To say nothing of Jered Weaver and C.J. Wilson, veterans who’ll be free agents next fall. The cupboard isn’t bare. But this is still a major sacrifice, yet another injection of young pitching talent into the Braves’ developing system. The Braves, pretty clearly, believe strongly in their organizational ability to get the most out of talented pitchers. Newcomb and Ellis could be long-term assets. They just need to be polished.
Last year, throughout the minors, 578 pitchers threw at least 100 innings. Newcomb had the eighth-highest walk rate. Ellis was 47th, his rate spiking in Double-A. Right there, you get the message — pitchers good enough to be drafted high, but pitchers with real bouts of wildness. They obviously can’t be written off or anything, but it’s easy to understand the optimism and the skepticism. Some people prefer their pitchers to have a foundation of good raw stuff. Other people prefer a foundation of good command. Newcomb and Ellis are a bit riskier.
Newcomb is the better get, and the rest of the picture is that he also posted the sixth-highest strikeout rate. He had an ERA under 2.50, so the upside is evident, and he could be a quick mover. He could show up to help the Braves as soon as this season. But, you know how pitchers are. It’s another roll of the dice. There’s no knowing what Simmons will be in a few years, but he feels projectable. The pitchers could be almost anything. The Braves’ll hope they can be big-league pitchers by 2017 or so.
The Braves’ offensive plan appears to be: make sure to have Freddie Freeman, and the rest will work out somehow. The crop of pitchers is ahead of the crop of position players, and losing Simmons doesn’t help that, but if the Braves figure they’ve seen the best Simmons has to offer, then Newcomb is a high-upside asset to add to a huge collection of big arms. The Braves have made it no secret they’re building around pitching. It’s no secret that comes with its own challenges. I’m sure they’re excited to welcome the challenge of Sean Newcomb.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
It probably won’t happen, but you never know:
http://goo.gl/ECQvt5
Better hitter and fielder through their age 25 seasons. Of course later not only did Ozzie keep up (or improve) his great fielding he also learned how to hit. An Angels fan can dream!
Ozzie is exactly the comp I’ve had in my head on Andrelton for some time. Simmons needs consistent contact, but with that he’d actually be a bit better. And Ozzie Smith was a crucial player in the return of St. Louis to contention.
And Vizquel made similar improvement offensively at around the same age. I just have a feeling that Simmons probably will perk up at the plate now that he’s free from that expansion team that’s evolving in Atlanta.
Highest Def WAR in 1st 4 Seasons (per @baseball_ref)
Andrelton Simmons 15.2
Ozzie Guillen 12.0
Phil Rizzuto 10.1
Andruw Jones 10.0
Leaving aside the fact that I hate the Braves front office now, my concern for the Braves is that this trade lowers their revenue even further. Without Andrelton, there is less reason to watch the Braves, so likely less attendance at games. Liberty Media limits the Braves’ spending by requiring profits, so I’m not sure how they plan to get out of the hole they’ve dug themselves if they put out a product no one wants to watch. The money just won’t be there.
I watched some Braves just to watch Simmons and I’m not even a Braves fan. I can’t even imagine how angry I’d be over being deprived of watching him play for my favorite team. He does things I have never seen with regularity.
It’s been studied time and time again, that outside of rare events (historical, generally), people do not come to the ballpark to watch a specific player.
Moving Andrelton might make the Braves a few games worse (then again, if Aybar has a great year, it might not…) That will affect their attendance a bit. But outside of his contributions to team WAR, losing Simmons should not have any affect on attendance.
Angels trade two of their best prospects, pitchers Sean Newcomb and Chris Ellis and Aybar, all to fill a hole that didn’t necessarily exist.
Except it was a glaring whole after 2016 and is now locked up through 2020.
lol I used the wrong email address, I was so confused when that picture showed up
Chris Ellis isn’t that great and would look worse in a decent farm system; Aybar is an average player with only 1 yr of team control left; Newcomb has good potential, but he also hasn’t shown any ability to throw strikes; while Simmons is a young, good-to-great starter with 5 years of control left at a bargain $53 million.
Angels did good.
Were I a Braves fan,this would make me ill.UZR,WAR, you name it,Simmons is the wizard of his generation,with a very club friendly contract.
Bizarre move in my view. No idea why a team gives up young pitching and a decent shortstop for Simmons – I can see the rational of it from Atlanta’s point of view though, given they are in rebuild mode… on the other hand there are risks on Atlanta’s side too – neither of those pitchers may develop into anything significant… strange deal all around I’d say… Simmons seems to me like an asset who you hold onto…
Don’t like this deal for either org, really. Simmons is better than Aybar of course, and signed long-term, but not so much to really move the win needle for the Angels. Stripping out Newcomb in particular not to say Ellis hurts on depth in a big way. Having Heaney makes this possible, just doubtful that the difference is enough to give up your only really traceable prospect assets with so many more pressing holes to fill on the 25-man. Given opportunity cost, not smart for the Angles—but as a fan of a divisional rival, I like it! Nuff said there.
What the Braves higher minds think they are doing other than dumping pay roll I don’t get. They are packed with pitching prospects, but even given that Newcomb may be the best of them he’s no sure thing, and the ceilings on ALL their guys don’t seem top of the rotation. And pitchers get hurt, which is why not to have all your eggs throwing from sixty feet six. It sure seems like the Braves deciders now _hated_ the roster that was put together recently, and that their main goal for the last year has been to projectile vomit up everybody they had for anybody else. I don’t see that they really got smart value back for the value they’ve given up over that time. A lot of medium plus lottery tickets. Miami North, that’s the new address designation for this org, to me.
I don’t like this deal for the Braves at all. There is no rush to deal Simmons and I would like to think they could have gotten more for him now and in the future.
It is reasonable to assume that the Angels are trying to lay a defensive foundation akin to that of the Royals with strong defenders Trout and Calhoun already in the mix. Accordingly, I wouldn’t be surprised if they strongly go after Alex Gordon to plug LF and establish lefty-righty balance in the lineup. Wieters’ name is mentioned as a target, but I personally would be wary of his body type and injury history if I had to spend big money on him.
As a Mets fan, I am thrilled to see Simmons out of the division. It felt impossible to get a hit to the left side at times. However, I also did enjoy watching him play. Moreso when the mets were bad.
What’s the track record of pitchers with Newcomb’s command issues figuring it out? That’s what I can’t understand about this trade. Seems like a real high risk asset. Obviously tremendous upside is possible but he could easily top off as a just a really good reliever…
I agree that Newcomb is high risk, but I don’t think he has “tremendous upside.” I think his absolute best case scenario is a borderline #2 starter. In addition to the poor command, he doesn’t have great breaking stuff or an impressive changeup. I don’t know enough about Ellis to judge that aspect of the deal.
Right. I wasn’t saying he has tremendous upside, just that it was possible. Anyone with that strikeout rate is a guy who can be dreamed on. I just don’t understand the Braves calculus here, I would think they would want more of a finished product.
I don’t know how many times Simmons came up to bat this year and I won a “He’s gonna hit into a double play” bet. Would have won a lot more if people in front of him could get on. Also a good drinking game is to drink every time he falls down when he swings. maybe stick with beer on that one tho. liquor would kill a man at that game.
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