Bryce Harper Gets His Record-Setting Deal
Our long ex-National’s nightmare is over. According to a flurry of reports, Bryce Harper has agreed to a 13-year, $330 million contract with the Phillies, who apparently withstood late challenges from the Giants and Dodgers in landing the 26-year-old former overall number one pick. Thirteen years, as in through the 2031 season! That means Harper will still be in Philly when Gritty is bar mitzvah’d.
In the end, Harper and agent Scott Boras toppled Giancaro Stanton’s 13-year, $325 million extension (signed in November 2014) for the claim of the largest contract in baseball history. With an average annual value of “only” $25.38 million, the deal merely ranks 14th all-time, and third this winter behind Nolan Arenado‘s just-completed eight-year, $260 million extension ($32.5 million AAV) and Manny Machado’s 10-year, $300 million free agent deal. Philly-wise, it edges the $25 million per year of Ryan Howard and Jake Arrieta as far as the franchise record is concerned. It’s worth noting that the lower AAV over the longer time frame would allow the team some additional flexibility if, for example, a certain Millville, New Jersey native were to test free agency following the 2020 season (h/t Joe Sheehan). Via Cot’s Contracts, the team’s payroll for Competitive Balance Tax purposes is just shy of $188 million, leaving open the possibility that they could still sign Dallas Keuchel or Craig Kimbrel and still wind up under the $206 million threshold.
As far as bells and whistles go, Harper’s deal has a full no-trade clause, but it does not include any opt outs or deferred money; it’s been described as “front loaded.” As we recently learned — reportedly included roughly $100 million in deferred money, the 10-year, $300 million offer that the Nationals made reportedly included roughly $100 million in deferred money, lowering its present day value considerably. Our own Craig Edwards presented one such scenario:
To provide some context, a 10yr/$300 M deal that paid $20 M/year for 10 years and $10 M/year for 10 years after that would have the same present value as a straight 10-year deal for $244 million. Just one example but the potential financial hit is huge. https://t.co/brJVq7TAVG
— Craig Edwards (@craigjedwards) February 21, 2019
As far as the Phillies’ lineup goes, Harper would likely replace Nick Williams, who moved from right field to left to accommodate the team’s earlier signing of Andrew McCutchen and, eyeballing our depth charts, boost their projected win total from 83 to 87.
Edwards will have a detailed analysis shortly, and we’ll have more to say about the deal from a variety of angles as well.
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
As a Phillies fan, allow me to say: Giggity.
And his AAV leaves plenty of room to make a serious run for Trout in 2 years. Never thought it would be possible to have them both on one team.
Welp as a Mets fan that sucks for us. The nl east is a monster division and some team will win 86 games and finish in 4th place. I’m sure people on social media will claim it’s an overpayment but it really isn’t at 25 mil per year. Goes without saying Harper will be a huge upgrade over Nick Williams.
You misspelled “mediocre”
Wow. Such Mets fans. Much anger.
if you think the NL east is going to be mediocre, you haven’t been paying attention. That’s why you’re getting so many downvotes.
To follow up on this point: Before Harper gets added in, the Phillies are projected for 83 wins, the Mets and Braves for 84, and Nationals at 90. This division was already loaded. Since Harper is replacing a guy who is projected for 0.7 wins, you can expect the Phillies to shoot up in the projections. Some of that will come at the expense of the Mets/Braves/Nationals, but there’s a really good chance that the 4th-best team in this division is going to get 84 wins. That’s a loaded division.
You guys are aware that the schedule is unbalanced, right?
While obviously there are times when the unbalanced schedule inflates win totals, that doesn’t apply in a division where 4 of the 5 teams are projected to be good. Every matchup among the four is a loss for someone, so to hit those win totals they will have to do quite well against non-NL East clubs.
“good”
What kind of win totals do you foresee for NL East clubs?
This thread almost makes me feel genuine pity for Mets fans.
Almost.
An 83 win projection in the NL East is more like a 77 win projection in a real league.
Let me guess you are a Yankee fan right?
Predictably asinine assumption.
this is my new favourite comment ever
I knew they were going to get him in the end, but I was hoping for stupid money territory like 40M AAV to torpedo their flexibility. Good deal for the Phils though. They needed more elite players to add from outside since their rebuild efforts are a bit iffy.
Record-setting*
Thank you for this.
hahaha yw. I love triggering delicate honkeys
You are not an intelligent person.
You are mad, eh?
Not even a little. But if you died today, no one in your life would care. You are a truly irrelevant human being.
And here I thought it would be 10 years at roughly $330 getting the job done. That makes it feel like the Phillies are getting three years for free. Even if they end up being replacement-level seasons, that’s not bad.
Exactly my thoughts.
Those last 3 years essentially can be treated as deferred money. But the Phillies at least gain the small possibility that he’d still be a capable starter at that point.
As someone without much of a rooting interest for the division, I’m glad to see Harper stay in the NL East. 19 or 20 games against the Nationals each year–with side-by-side comparisons of Harper, Soto, and Robles–should make for some outstanding story-lines.
There’s a saying among boat owners: your two happiest days are the day you acquire the boat and the day you get rid of it. Today is a day of celebration. Enjoy your new boat, Phillies fans.
I’M ON A BOAT
This is the best description of big-money contracts in free agency that ever existed.
How is signing day better than the day (or, more likely, days) when Harper leads them into the playoffs? How about the day (which, over 13 years as an above-average franchise, has about a 50/50 chance of happening) when he wins a World Series?
It’s not any Phillies’ fans’ money (except for the owner, who I presume is a fan). They’ll have plenty of great days with Bryce.
Because today all those possibilities seem real.
Tomorrow they may not be.
WHAT ABOUT THE DAY I FINALLY HAVE SEX ON MY BOAT BECAUSE IM DEFINITELY HAVING SEX ON THIS FUCKING BOAT
I look forward to seeing Harper’s reaction to this when he finds out about that day.
Except I’m on a boat that belongs to some random billionaire that I’ve never met
What a relatable aphorism. Being a boat owner is a real hardship.
You can have a cheap little boat with a small motor…it doesn’t have to be a mega yacht. It’s still a pain in the ass.
Imagine resenting people with more money than you this much.
Did anyone correctly guess that the closest comparables for Harper’s contract would be Ryan Howard and Jon Lester? *ducks*
no one guessed that because it’s false!
hahaha is it, though?
Yes, it’s false. How are they similar?
The AAV is literally identical, but please, continue to be angery bois
Did anyone currently guess that the closest comparison to this apple would be these oranges?
Ah, a glib dismissal relying on a lazy, trite, low-energy aphorism.
Happy for Harper and wish him the best unless playing against my team.
I can’t believe it took until training camp had already opened to resolve this, since we already knew that he was going to take a billion-year contract to get over Stanton’s contract, and that the Phillies were the only team motivated to spend that much money on anybody (at least not named Mike Trout or Mookie Betts). I’m mostly just surprised it’s only 13 years instead of 15.
Although there is certainly a lot to critique with this specific deal, I will say it’s refreshing to see a team revert back to the old tried-and-true method of giving someone a contract for life, letting the back half of the contract subsidize the first half (although how much will depend on how front-loaded this thing is). Teams kept on insisting that they didn’t want to go to 9 or 10 year contracts, which was kind of a bizarre way to frame it since I’m sure they would have been happy to stretch the same total value over 30 years if they could. And Harper, being only 26 years old, is the perfect guy to get it.
At least it’s reassuring to know that baseball teams (correctly) value Machado vastly higher
No opt outs?! Holy cow, so in the end it was just all about getting the biggest contract, not the best deal. What a joke.
Maybe he wasn’t feeling so eager to go through this again
He turned down 4 years $180 million from the Dodgers. I think your second sentence is absolutely correct.
This is fascinating, with no trades or opt outs + that length. I wonder if Harper or the Phillies will really end up happy with this long term (and not 13 year long term, like, 7 year long term). Either way, they’ll certainly all be thrilled together for the first 5 or so. Happy for Bryce, sad cause I don’t like the Phillies lol
13 years in a league with guaranteed contracts is insane. Boras clearly played this correctly. Phillies front office had a mandate, and little incentive not to go the extra years, because, just like with Stanton, the approach GMs probably take to these mega contracts is “Après nous le déluge”, since presumably we’ll be through one or two front office shakeups by the time the contract turns regrettable. In the meantime, you got your guy.
13/390 would have been insane, but for a guy who was going to get 10/300 easily and was pushing hard for 10/330, 13/330 is a good deal. It slightly decreases the AAV for cap purposes, and if he’s below replacement a decade from now, then they can just cut him and pretend it was a 10/330 deal with some deferred payments. The Phillies actually got a concession in the form of those three years just so Harper could beat Stanton’s contract in terms of total money.
Oh yeah, 13/330 is much nicer than 10/330, which seemed to be the original ask. No question.
I probably would’ve even called the 10/330 insane – I am more or less categorically against mega contracts though, since the need to provide 3-4 years of windfall at the end of a contract just to get the elite production at the start of it seems like an odd way to run a business. Unless, of course, you’re unlikely to be there for those 3-4 years anyway 🙂
Could never be a Phillies fan. Don’t want to win that way
So your favorite team only drafts and develops players and never signs free agents?
Tell me how Tampa could have signed Harper
I just want to read one article without somehow being randomly thrown in and shamed!
By offering him a better deal than Philadelphia, obviously
As a Pirates fan,
Yes
We all know you’re a Tigers fan, Alice.
You don’t want to win by paying money to good players to do the thing they’re best at? Which way do you want to win, exactly?
On a level playing field. Tell me how Small market teams could have signed Harper
Baseball fields are quite level.
Unless you do something wacky like add a hill.
Ask the Padres.
Adding Harper would still leave the Rays within their typical spending range.
By paying really good players?
Which NL travesty do you claim to support?
Which championship felt better? The 1999 Yanks or the 2009 yanks? Golden State Warriors pre or post Durant? We know the answer
Yeah, bring back the reserve clause so championships can be pure again
Someone around here posted a link just the other day arguing the reserve clause could be good for baseball. I read it expecting to think it was a load of nonsense, but it was surprisingly compelling!
Edit: here it is, in case anyone is curious. Hat tip to The Kudzu Kid.
https://www.si.com/more-sports/2010/01/14/andrecheck-freeagency
Exactly. Pure like college sports are pure. Purely exploitative.
How about “both”?
Who cares?
Of all the bad takes I’ve ever seen in an FG comment section (which are thankfully not ubiquitous), this is maybe the dumbest one.
Of course, lives in big market DC. I bet you are going to argue that someone should be making 300 million
Wait, is someone named Milton Friedman advocating for either strict price controls on the free agent market or wealth redistribution among the teams?
I don’t know the structure of what the Nats offered but both of these deals effectively have lots of deferred money. If Nats offered $25m/10 + $5/10, with 2.5% inflation, the NPV is $250M. The NPV of the Phillies deal is $275M with three more years of work. They seem pretty similar to me.
The article includes a statement that the NPV of the Nationals offer is 244M. There is little enough chance that the NPV of Harper’s age 37, 38, and 39 seasons is as high as $31M that I’d take that gamble were I Harper.
Well from the way you are defining “deferred money,” yes all long-term contracts have “deferred money.” As long as the real interest rate is positive, the present value will always be less than the nominal value of the contract.
Technically sure. And none of us have seen the terms. But relative to Machado and Arenado, the Phillies guaranteed 3-4 years when they can’t expect to get anything useful from Harper in order to spread payments over 13 years instead of 8-10.
Put another way, if the deal was 10/$330 but he received $25M in each of 2029, 2030, and 2031, we’d all agree there was deferred money. That the contract extends through those years changes it very slightly.
Inflation is the wrong factor to calculate the time value of money in this case. You want some estimated return on investment which is 7-10%.
Who is Gritty?