Checking In On The Elite Modern Triplers
Before this season began, I wrote at The Hardball Times about the best modern triple-hitters (a.k.a. triplers), or the active players who have the best shot at challenging the post-war record, Roberto Clemente’s 161 career triples.
What I learned is: it’s basically impossible. (As is, arguably, the pursuit of just about any other counting-stat record.) In order to have a shot, the player must begin their major league career early as an everyday player, and average a triple once every 50-60 plate appearances throughout their twenties, followed by a graceful decline of a triple once every 60-70 plate appearances throughout their thirties.
Tripling every 50-70 plate appearances might not sound like a high hurdle to clear, but oh boy it is. The game’s current baron of the basepaths, Billy Hamilton, is already behind the pace, even though he started as an everyday player at age 23: he’s at a triple once every 85.6 PA’s. The maniacal possessor of both speed + power known as Mike Trout, despite famously getting started as a 20-year-old, would have to put in a career of 20 years or more to challenge (as Pete Rose did): Trout sits at 94.7.
Triples can even elude the elitist triplers as they head into their thirties. There are only three players among the active top 10 triplers who entered the season with a career rate below once every 60 PA’s: Carl Crawford (remember him!), Jose Reyes, and Dexter Fowler. 2015 has been kind to none of them. Wrigley Field’s short outfield walls have kept Fowler down to once every 79 PA’s, dropping him from 55.1 to 57.3 in just half a season. Reyes has yet to triple this season, dropping his career rate from 57.7 to 59.8. Crawford has tripled once in just 50 PA’s on the year, but, even though he is the active triples leader, his recurring inability to play a full season makes the 40 triples he needs to catch Clemente look more unrealistic with each DL trip.
A more optimistic train of thought is to try to identify the young guns who have stormed out of the gate with the necessary kind of tripling rate it will take to catch Clemente. Since one has to go down to players with just a few seasons or parts of seasons in the big leagues in order to find viable candidates, these efforts are definitely subject to some gigantic sample size caveats.
For instance, when I wrote the original article — just in March! — I identified Starling Marte as the game’s best candidate to best Clemente. But lo, Marte has yet to triple in 330 PA’s this season, which has effectively dropped him out of the race: his rate has plummeted from 58.8 to 73.7.
Marte aside, though, there are young players who are on their way to a robust career, full of triples. While David Peralta hasn’t been able to replicate his rookie year rate of 38.5, he still sits at 47. Peter Bourjos appears to be pulling the rare feat of establishing his tripling prowess after arriving in the majors: his rate of 54 this season has him down to once every 61.2 PA’s for his career. Fellow St. Louis Cardinal Randal Grichuk has followed up a one-triple season in last year’s brief debut with a robust 31.5 rate in 2015, dropping his career rate to an impressive 43.5. Adam Eaton has also improved on his rate, from 57.4 down to 55. Rookies Billy Burns (56.2), Delino Deshields (36.4), and Paulo Orlando (25.2!) have come on the scene with vigor.
(While we will wait to pass judgment on Kyle Schwarber, with one triple in his first 23 PA’s, and Cheslor Cuthbert, with a triple in his first 16 PA’s, it should be noted that they are off on the right foot.)
But we definitely have a new modern tripling king — an imposing tripler who is not only leading the majors in total triples, but doing so an at incredible rate of once every 38.8 PA’s. Kevin Kiermaier is looking more and more like a threat to the record books.
Miles Wray contributes sports commentary to McSweeney's Internet Tendency, Ploughshares, The Classical and Hardwood Paroxysm. Follow him on Twitter @mileswray or email him here.
I’d also make the argument that it would probably take a relatively unusual stadium to catch Clemente, who was the beneficiary of Forbes Field for all but the final two years of his career. The splits bear this out, as he had 103 triples at home and 63 away (for an actual total of 166). Forbes Field was flipping massive, had a hard surface, and a really funky OF wall. The result was a triples paradise, perfect for Clemente’s talent.
No question about it. Forbes Field’s dimensions were mind-bogglingly big. 457 to left-centre! Clemente was the greatest, though!
If anyone does challenge the record, I would expect it to be a Rockie or a Tiger.
Given the park, Billy Burns would make sense to me.
What an odd last paragraph about Kiermaier. Just felt really tacked on as afterthought and isn’t clear if writer is serious or kidding about him being a threat to the record books.
Kiermaier is already 25 and has 17 career triples. His production doesn’t forecast a long career, even if he is strong defensively, to warrant a full time job much past 30.
Thank you for your contribution to this discussion.
For what its worth, the combined ZiPS/Steamer projection has Kiermaier projected to be the only guy with 5+ triples over the remainder of the season.
4 WAR last year and on pace for ~5.5 this year. Sounds like pretty good production to me.
161?!?! Man, I just got my first one in June…
(fun fact: I was so close to eclipsing Johnny Estrada’s career mark of 2,244 PAs without a triple…)
Great article! The increasing rarity of the 3-bagger has always interested me.
Park factors and lack of proper shifts explain a good portion of the high number of triples hit in the 1st half of the 20th century, and the subsequent decrease in triple-frequency thereafter. However, that athletes with elite wheels do not hit them more often remains head-scratching.
Crawford is an interesting case. As soon as he turned age 30 in August of 2011, his ability to hit triples was magically diminished. You could scientifically chalk it up to wear and tear, but I certainly expected a less sudden decline with Crawford, based on they type of hitter he was and his overall athleticism.
My favorite candidate to break Clemente’s modern era record is Delino Deshields, Jr. He emanates from speedster stock, has just enough power to reach the wall in the gaps, bats leadoff in a hitters park, is built physically like a small NFL running back, and is young enough to collect a lot of triples to keep his stat counters busy for a long time.
Crawford’s ability to hit triples wasn’t the only thing that “magically diminished.” His had an across-the-board steep decline.
Fun fact: After his first 3 seasons, Crawford had 34 triples and 18 homeruns. When’s the last time a guy finished his career with more triples than homers?
“When’s the last time a guy finished his career with more triples than homers?” It happens all the time, much to my (and your) surprise. Among players with 3000 PA minimum in their MLB careers, three retired in 2014 with this distinction: Endy Chavez, Chone Figgins and Nick Punto. Three more retired in 2013: Jamey Carroll, Cesar Izturis and Juan Pierre (94 triples versus 18 HRs, a fairly extreme split for Pierre).
Hat tip to baseball-reference.com’s Play Index feature.
Edit: “When’s the last time a guy who could hit homers finished his career with more triples than homers?”
He likely won’t come close to Clemente, but Byron Buxton averaged a triple every 36 PA in the minor leagues (over 1288 PAs), and had one triple over his 39 PA stint in the majors this year – my money’s on him winning a tripler’s title someday soon.
I agree that Buxton will be an elite tripler early in his career, but I fear as he develops greater power, enough balls will find their way over the fence to limit his annual triples to the high single digits as he ages.
Have you seen how much that field stifles lefties but gives tremendous advantage to LD down right field? That is juicy for a player like Buxton, who isn’t going to ever get to 30 HR in that field unless he wants to be marginal for his career.
Don’t sleep on Mookie Betts. He profiles as the type of hitter who would get a lot of triples and plays in a home park that I would think (haven’t looked this up) is conducive to triples. Last season only 1 triple in 189 ABs, but so far 6 triples in 343 ABs this season (one every 57 ABs). And obviously his age and speed benefit him in this regard.
He’s a good candidate on paper. Fenway’s CF and RF are great for triples. He doesn’t strike out much and he hits line drives. He’s got the necessary speed. And he’s not projected for a ton of power, so enough of his hard-hit balls should stay in the yard. He should get plenty of playing time too.
But he’s only got 7 triples in 591 PA’s. And didn’t hit many triples in the minors either (10 in 1311 PA’s).
Agree probably won’t happen. Triples were once a great proxy (still true??) for excellent all-around hitters, since they conveyed speed and power. Clemente perfect example, and there were others. Interesting that NO one will ever ever approach the highest counts for so many reasons. Anyway, nice article…..
Is it possible to take into the account the change of the coaching style?? Where now if you aren’t guaranteed movement on the bases, and there is decent hitting at the plate, players are less likely to hustle at 3B speed, since they either :
A) Could get caught at 3B, losing a base.
B) Could overpass 2B, get caught.
C) Could do B and possibly get injured.
Back then, getting runs were so valuable and hard to get that there were probably more emphasis on taking three bags, where now you could be heavily derided for doing so, especially with less than 2 outs. Some times, in my opinion it seems when someone is caught at third easily they are considered “too greedy” and “not a good baserunner”.
It gets taught and baked into you from Babe Ruth. I wonder if the teachings of baseball also acted as a catalyst for why less hitters get triples. Maybe it isn’t empirically, and spiritually, valuable to game itself. But this is a post of metrics, so I will digress.