Checking In On The Elite Modern Triplers

Before this season began, I wrote at The Hardball Times about the best modern triple-hitters (a.k.a. triplers), or the active players who have the best shot at challenging the post-war record, Roberto Clemente’s 161 career triples.

What I learned is: it’s basically impossible. (As is, arguably, the pursuit of just about any other counting-stat record.) In order to have a shot, the player must begin their major league career early as an everyday player, and average a triple once every 50-60 plate appearances throughout their twenties, followed by a graceful decline of a triple once every 60-70 plate appearances throughout their thirties.

Tripling every 50-70 plate appearances might not sound like a high hurdle to clear, but oh boy it is. The game’s current baron of the basepaths, Billy Hamilton, is already behind the pace, even though he started as an everyday player at age 23: he’s at a triple once every 85.6 PA’s. The maniacal possessor of both speed + power known as Mike Trout, despite famously getting started as a 20-year-old, would have to put in a career of 20 years or more to challenge (as Pete Rose did): Trout sits at 94.7.

Triples can even elude the elitist triplers as they head into their thirties. There are only three players among the active top 10 triplers who entered the season with a career rate below once every 60 PA’s: Carl Crawford (remember him!), Jose Reyes, and Dexter Fowler. 2015 has been kind to none of them. Wrigley Field’s short outfield walls have kept Fowler down to once every 79 PA’s, dropping him from 55.1 to 57.3 in just half a season. Reyes has yet to triple this season, dropping his career rate from 57.7 to 59.8. Crawford has tripled once in just 50 PA’s on the year, but, even though he is the active triples leader, his recurring inability to play a full season makes the 40 triples he needs to catch Clemente look more unrealistic with each DL trip.

A more optimistic train of thought is to try to identify the young guns who have stormed out of the gate with the necessary kind of tripling rate it will take to catch Clemente. Since one has to go down to players with just a few seasons or parts of seasons in the big leagues in order to find viable candidates, these efforts are definitely subject to some gigantic sample size caveats.

For instance, when I wrote the original article — just in March! — I identified Starling Marte as the game’s best candidate to best Clemente. But lo, Marte has yet to triple in 330 PA’s this season, which has effectively dropped him out of the race: his rate has plummeted from 58.8 to 73.7.

Marte aside, though, there are young players who are on their way to a robust career, full of triples. While David Peralta hasn’t been able to replicate his rookie year rate of 38.5, he still sits at 47. Peter Bourjos appears to be pulling the rare feat of establishing his tripling prowess after arriving in the majors: his rate of 54 this season has him down to once every 61.2 PA’s for his career. Fellow St. Louis Cardinal Randal Grichuk has followed up a one-triple season in last year’s brief debut with a robust 31.5 rate in 2015, dropping his career rate to an impressive 43.5. Adam Eaton has also improved on his rate, from 57.4 down to 55. Rookies Billy Burns (56.2), Delino Deshields (36.4), and Paulo Orlando (25.2!) have come on the scene with vigor.

(While we will wait to pass judgment on Kyle Schwarber, with one triple in his first 23 PA’s, and Cheslor Cuthbert, with a triple in his first 16 PA’s, it should be noted that they are off on the right foot.)

But we definitely have a new modern tripling king — an imposing tripler who is not only leading the majors in total triples, but doing so an at incredible rate of once every 38.8 PA’s. Kevin Kiermaier is looking more and more like a threat to the record books.





Miles Wray contributes sports commentary to McSweeney's Internet Tendency, Ploughshares, The Classical and Hardwood Paroxysm. Follow him on Twitter @mileswray or email him here.

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Formerly Suffering Bucs Fan
8 years ago

I’d also make the argument that it would probably take a relatively unusual stadium to catch Clemente, who was the beneficiary of Forbes Field for all but the final two years of his career. The splits bear this out, as he had 103 triples at home and 63 away (for an actual total of 166). Forbes Field was flipping massive, had a hard surface, and a really funky OF wall. The result was a triples paradise, perfect for Clemente’s talent.

bluejaysstatsgeek
8 years ago

No question about it. Forbes Field’s dimensions were mind-bogglingly big. 457 to left-centre! Clemente was the greatest, though!

Eric the Snail
8 years ago

If anyone does challenge the record, I would expect it to be a Rockie or a Tiger.

Aaron
8 years ago
Reply to  Eric the Snail

Given the park, Billy Burns would make sense to me.